VEHICLE DEMAND AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES JARI-INDONESIA ROUNDTABLE 2008 BOROBUDUR HOTEL JAKARTA, 14 FEBRUARY 2008
OVERVIEW 1. INDONESIA AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY 1.1 ASEAN DOMESTIC SALES 1.2 INDONESIA DOMESTIC SALES AND DEMAND FORECAST 1.3 MOTOR VEHICLE POPULATION IN INDONESIA 2. INDONESIA ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 2.1 EMISSION POLICY 2.2 CURRENT MARKET FUEL 2.3 VEHICLE POPULATION AND ROAD CONDITION 3. ASEAN AUTOMOTIVE FEDERATION (AAF) PROPOSALS 3.1 PROPERTIES OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL 3.2 PROPERTIES OF BIO DIESEL AND BIO ETHANOL 4. GAIKINDO PROPOSALS
1. INDONESIA AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
2.500.000 000 AUTOMOTIVE MARKET IN ASEAN 2000-2007 7.7% 15.2% 13.0% 21.4% 11.6% 13.7% 5.8% 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.163163 1.340 1.514 1.838 2.052 1.770 1.873 (X 1000 UN NIT) 1.080 1.000.000 500.000-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 THAILAND 262.189 297.052 409.242 533.176 626.026 703.432 682.161 631.251 MALAYSIA 343.173 396.381 434.954 405.101 487.605 552.316 490.768 487.176 INDONESIA 300.965 299.599 317.748 354.629 483.148 533.917 318.904 434.473 SINGAPORE 76.121 74.277 65.612 86.212 113.157 130.237 137.564 122.254 PHILIPPINES 83.949 76.670 85.587 92.336 88.075 97.063 99.541 117.903 VIETNAM 13.954 19.554 26.873 42.557 40.141 35.266 41.113 80.392 TOTAL 1.080.351 1.163.533 1.340.016 1.514.011 1.838.152 2.052.231 1.770.051 1.873.449 Source : GAIKINDO
x x x x x AUTOMOTIVE MARKET IN INDONESIA 2001-2007 600.000 x +10.5% 500.000 +36.2% -40.3% 400.000 +6.1% +11.6% -35.9% 300.000 200.000 100.000-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 SEDAN TYPE/M1 35.226 26.588 38.925 40.481 35.369 17.565 27.381 4X2 TYPE/M1 163.107 174.367 186.033 271.142 327.155 203.634 285.733 4X4 TYPE/M1 2.568 816 1.110 1.242 1.795 1.188 1.655 BUS/M2,M3 1.773 2.063 1.529 2.153 2.292 1.561 1.700 PU&TRUCK/N1&N2 96.923 111.693 123.134 164.001 161.249 89.540 108.558 DOUBLE CABIN/N1 2 2.221 3.898 4.129 6.057 5.416 8.314 TOTAL 299.599 317.748748 354.629 483.148 533.917 318.904 433.341341 Source : GAIKINDO
800 600 (X 1000 unit) AUTOMOTIVE MARKET & FORECAST IN INDONESIA 1997-2010 700 Optimis 500 400 300 200 387 301 300 318 483 534 540 520 434 354 319 620 740 620 580 580 520 480 Normal Pesimis 100 0 58 94 Source : GAIKINDO
VEHICLES POPULATION 2010 FORECAST (ALL CATAGORIES) A. PASSENGER CARS 1. GASOLINE : 2.844.033 2. DIESEL : 414.716 SUB TOTAL 3.258.749 B. COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 1. GASOLINE : 1.442.516 2. DIESEL : 5.155.094 SUB TOTAL 6.597.610 GRAND TOTAL 9.856.359 Note : exclude Parallel Importers, and others 10%
2. INDONESIA ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
CURRENT FUEL MARKET Ref: Dir. Gen. of Oil and Gas, Decree No. 3674K/24/DJM/2006 for Gasoline Fuel, 3675K/24/DJM/2006 for Diesel Fuel BRANDED Fuel Spec. Type base on 3674K/2006 Gasoline Branded d COMPANY 88 LG 88 ULG 91 ULG 95 ULG Premium (Leaded) Phase out in June 2006 Premium (Unleaded) PERTAMINA Bio Premium (E5) Pertamax Bio Pertamax (E5) Pertamax Plus Super 92 SHELL Super Extra 95 Prima 92 PETRONAS Primax PX2 Petrol 92 GULF Petrol Super 95 BRANDED COMPANY PERTAMINA SHELL GULF Diesel Branded Name Regular Solar Bio Solar (B5) Pertamina Dex Shell Solar D-xtra Fuel Spec. Type base on 3675K/2006 CN 48 (S<3500ppm) CN 51(S<500ppm) (S = 300 3000 ppm) (S = 300 3000 ppm) (S ~ 350ppm) (S ~ 5000ppm) (S ~ 350ppm) Sources : GAIKINDO
VEHICLE POPULATION IN JAKARTA PROVINCE YEAR M-CYCLE PASSENGER CARS TRUCKS BUSSES TOTAL 2001 1,813,136 1,130,496 347,443 253,648 3,544,723 2002 2,257,194 1,195,871 366,221 254,849 4,074,135 2003 3,316,900 1,529,824 464,748 315,652 5,627,124 2004 3,940,700 1,645,306 488,517 316,396 6,390,919 2005 4,647,435 1,766,801 499,581 316,502 7,230,319 2006 5,310,068 1,835,653 504,727 317,050 7,967,498 Sumber / Source : Ditlantas Polda Metro Jaya
ROAD CLASSES IN JAKARTA PROVINCE ROAD CLASSES LENGTH (m) AREA (sq-m) STATUS (1) (2) (3) (4) 1. Toll 112.960,00 2.472.680,00 Toll 2. Primary Artery 112.149,00 2.140.090,00 National 3. Primary Hubs 51.630,75 671.384,50 National 4. Secondary Artery 502.640,00 8.299.089,00 Province 5. Secondary Hubs 823.913,91 6.970.938,77 Province 6. Districts 4.936.928,77 20.988.103,81 District --- Jumlah 6.540.221,93 41.542.286,08 Sumber / Source : Dinas Pekerjaan Umum Provinsi DKI Jakarta
AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION REGULATION ACHIEVEMENT KM-141/2003 Euro II Implementation Euro 0 Euro II Euro IV (Plan) New Model Existing Model Before 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Units (millions) 8.0 Euro-2 Car Technology 6.0 Starting Euro 2 New Model Starting Euro 2 Existing Model Idle Emission Regulation Car Technology To be improved 1. Fuel quality spec.?, 2. Periodic Inspection?, 3. Traffic Management?. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Timing
3. ASEAN AUTOMOTIVE FEDERATION (AAF) PROPOSALS
AAF Recommendation for Euro4 Gasoline Items unit AAF EN228/99 Comment Priority WWFC Recommendation (Class A/EURO4) Cat.4 Density,g/cm3 0.725-0.775 0.725-0.775 same to EN 0.715-0.77 Octane Number RON 91/95/98 91/95 same to EN 91/95/98 MON 81/85/88 81/85 same to EN 82.5/85/88 AKI RVP,kPa S : 60 max S : 60 max same to EN 60 max W : *1) Distillation, T50 75-105 77-100 T90 180 max almost same 130-175 EP 210 max 210 max to EN 195 max Residue (vol%) 2 max. 2 max. E70 20-48 E100 46-71 E150 75 min Hydrocarbons Aromatics 35 max 35 max 35 max Olefins 18 max 18 max 10 max Benzene 1.0 max. 1.0 max. same to EN 1 max *2) Oxygenates Oxygen,wt% 2.7 max. 2.7 max. same to EN 2.7max Sulfur,ppm 50 max *4) 50 max same to EN 10 max Lead,g/L N.D *3) 0.013 max same to EN ND Metals ND N.D *3) ND Existent Gum (Washed),mg/100mL 5 max 5 max same to EN 5 max Copper Corrosion 1 max 1 max same to EN 1 max Oxidation Stability,min 480 min 360 min see note 480 min Appearance Clear & Bright Clear & Bright same to EN
AAF Recommendation for Euro4 Diesel Fuel Items unit AAF EN590/99 comment Priority WWFC Recommendation (Euro4) (Euro4) Cat.4 Density,g/cm3 0.820-0.845 0.820-0.845 same to EN 0.82-0.84 Cetane Index 51 min. 46 min. 52 min. Cetane Number 51 min. 51 min. 55 min. Viscosity it 30,mm2/s Viscosity 40,mm2/s 2.0-4.5 2.0-4.5 same to EN 2.0-4.0 Flash Point, 55 min. 55 min. same to EN 55 min. Distillation, T90 320 T95 360 max 340 EP almost same 350 E250 65 max. to EN E350 85 min. E370 95 min. Hydrocarbons Aromatics - PAH 11 max 11 max 11 max Oxygenates Oxygen,wt% FAME,vol% TBD *1) Alcohol,vol% N.D. Lubricity(HFRR), m 460 max 460 max. same to EN 400 max. Sulfur,ppm 50 max *3) 50 max. same to EN 10 max. 10% Carbon Residue,wt% 0.30 max 0.30 max. same to EN 0.30 max. Cloud Point, *2) Pour Point, *2) CFPP, *2) Appearance Clear & Bright same to EN (gasoline) Water,mg/kg 200 max 200 max. same to EN 200 max. Oxidation Stability,g/m3 25 max 25 max. same to EN 25 max. Copper Corrosion 1 max 1 max. same to EN 1 max. Particulates,mg/L 10 max. 10 max same to EN 10 max Ash,wt% 0.01 max 0.01 max. same to EN 0.01 max.
AAF Recommendation of FAME (B100) for up to B5 Blend Items AAF Rec. EN14214 Soyabean Jatropha Sunflower Coconut Palm (Draft) ME ME ME ME ME Test method Ester content mass% 96.5 min 96.5 min 96.1 96.9 96.7 99.4 96.1 EN 14103 mod. Density g/ml 0.86-0.90 0.86-0.90 0.8778 0.8737 0.8778 0.8746 0.8766 JIS K 2249 Kinematic Viscosity mm2/s TBD 3.5-5.0 4.1 4.3 4.1 2.696 4.665 JIS K 2283 Flash Point TBD 120 min 168 112 166 107 135 JIS K 2265 Sulfur ppm 10 max 10 max <100 <100 <100 5 2 JIS K 2541-1, -2, -6 or- 10% Carbon Residue mass% 0.3 max 0.3 max 0.2 <0.01 0.2 0.08 0.25 JIS K 2270 Cetane Number 51 min 51 min 49.9 52 49 60.2 60.1 JIS K 2280 Sulfated Ash mass% 0.02 max 0.02 max <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 JIS K 2272 Water ppm 500 max 500 max 600 900 600 1123 1380 JIS K 2275 Total Contamination ppm 24 max 24 max 0.2 0.2 0.4 21 141 EN 12662 Copper Corrosion 1 max 1 max 1 1 1 1 1 JIS K 2513 Acid mgkoh/g 0.5 max 0.5 max 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.27 0.3 JIS K 2501, JIS K Oxidation Stability Hr 10 minimum 6 min 3.2 6.5 1 7.1 1.7 Iodine Number gi/100g TBD 120 max 125.22 102.6 129.7 10 52 JIS K 0070 Linolenic acid methyl ester mass% 12.0 max 12.0 max 6.9 0.2 0.1 <0.1 0.3 EN 14103 Multi unsaturated acid methyl ester mass% 1 max 1 max <0.05 <0.02 <0.02 - - Methanol mass% 0.20 max 0.20 max <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 0.01 0.2 JIS K 2536, EN Mono glyceride mass% 0.80 max 0.80 max <0.01 0.4 0.3 0.05 0.26 EN 14105 Di glyceride mass% 0.20 max 0.20 max 0.4 0 0.1 0.05 0.45 EN 14105 Tri glyceride mass% 0.20 max 0.20 max 0.1 <0.01 <0.01 0.02 1.62 EN 14105 Free glycerine mass% 0.02max 0.02max <0.01 0 0 0.01 0.004 EN 14105, EN14106 Total glycerine mass% 0.25 max 0.25 max 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.21 0.3 EN 14105 Metals (Na + K) ppm 5max 5max <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <1 2.6 EN 14108, EN 14109 Metals (Ca + Mg) ppm 5 max 5 max <0.5 10.6 <0.5 <1 17 pren 14538 Phospourus ppm 10 max 10 max 1 7 <0.5 <1 8.6 EN 14107 Pour point CFPP
AAF Recommendation of Ethanol (E100) foruptoe10blend Proposed AAF Japan Europe Brazil Brazil US Anhydrous Anhydrous Anhydrous Anhydrous Anhydrous unit Hydrous Properties No Denature No Denature No Denature No Denature Denatured Clear & Clear & Clear & Clear & Clear & No Visible No Visible No Visible No Visible Bright Appearance Impurities Impurities Impurities Impurities Ethanol vol % 99.5 min - (99.57 min) 92.1 min Alcohol(EtOH+C3+) mass % - 98.7 min 99.3 min 92.6-93.8 - Methanol g/l 4 max - - - ppm (=0.5 max) 1 m/m% max - - 0.5 max Density kg/m3 - - 791.5 max 807.6-811.0-361 ase on ASTM D4806/ JASO M Existent Gum mg/100ml - - - - 50max 5.0 Water mass % 0.7 0.3 - - - vol % (=0.5 max) - - - 1 max Denature vol % - - - - 1.96-4.76 Hydrocarbon - - 3.0 max 3.0 max - Organic impuritiesiti mass % 1 max - - - - Electric Conductivity us/m 500 max - 500 max 500 max - Na mg/kg - - - 2 max - Iron mg/kg - - - 5 max Heave Metal - 0.5 max - - - Evaporative Residue - - - 5 max - Cupper mg/kg 0.1max 10 0.07 max - 0.1 max Chronic Ion ppm - 0.1max - 40 max mg/l - - - 1 max (32 max) Sulfate mg/kg - 20 max 4max 1max - Acidity mass % 0.007 max - (0.00375 max) 0.007 max mg/l 0.007 max 30 max 30 max (56 max) phe 7.0±1.0-6.0-8.0 6.5-9.0 Sulfur mg.kg 10 max 6.5-9.0 - - 30 max B
4. GAIKINDO PROPOSAL ON EMISSION REDUCTION 1. FUEL SPECIFICATION a. Fuel Availability which comply with EURO-4 emission standard requirements from 2012. b. Implementation of EURO-4 emission standards start from 2012 for M1 & N1 vehicle categories c. Bio fuel properties for motor vehicles should establish by the government. 2. PERIODIC INSPECTION a. Enhancement of periodic inspection implementation for public and commercial transportation t ti vehicles. b. Establishment of Regulation on Periodic Inspection for private vehicles. 3. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ISSUES a. To anticipate the growth of new vehicle population, additional length and area of road classes should be considered. b. Capacity development of integrated mass rapid transport modes.
CURRENT FUTURE ANDONG HYBRID