2 24 4 26 ( ) 73 1
23 JAXA RESTEC 2012 1 29 2 4 2011 12 22 28 BMA JICA 2
2011 2011 2011 3
31 1956 25 31 182 35 a. IFNet b. c. 4
2 23 IFNet JICA GFAS 5
2 2011 6
2 2011 2011-1 - - 2010-2010 2011 La Nina 7
3 2011 3,779km 4 5,971km 325 km 2 3 41 6,020 769 Central Coast 7 MRC Mississippi River Commission 2011 MRC USACE Vicksburg MVD Mississippi Valley Division 6 District USACE MVD 8
1927 1928 5,000 32.5 16.2 1,680 6.8 km 2 1.03 1928 MR&T Mississippi River and Tributaries - BPNM MRC 2011 MR&T Flood Report 9
MR&T 3.5 mile 9 km 2 139 89% 3,700 1:27 2011 1:34 400 (960 ) 179 USACE MVD 10
4 MR&T MR&T PDF 289 cfs 81,800m 3 /s 1/500 (4 ) (4 ) USACE MVD 11
5 2011 300% 600-1,000% 3 5 150 1927 1937 Southern Plains 2011 5 30 2011 4 5 12 USACE MVD 12
6 2011 Cairo, New Madrid, Caruthersville, Vicksburg, Natchez, Red River Lndg 6 1927 1937 BPNM 2011 2011 1927-635 150-2011 MR&T PDF 80-85% USACE 13
7 2011 <1/2> Vicksburg 2012 1 2011 USACE MVD 2011 1927 Vicksburg 1927 2012 1 Cairo 2012 1 14
8 2011 <2/2> Cairo Mega Sand Boil 2011 4 30 USACE MVD 15
9 BPNM 1928 1937 2 2 2011 5 2 Cairo 63ft 5/5) 22 Cairo 61.72ft 5 3 5 Cairo 3.55ft 1.1m 13.3 250 USACE Memphis District 16
10 BPNM USACE Memphis District 5/2 5/2 22:00 5/3 12:37 5/3 2012 1 17
11 BPNM USACE Memphis District BPNM Cairo 62.6ft 59.05ft 3.55ft 66.73ft 4/29 5/4 18
12 Morganza 1954 PDF 289 cfs 81,800m 3 /s 60 cfs 17,000m 3 /s 20 32km 5 8km 2 125 1973 2011 5 14 2 17 18.2 cfs 5,200m 3 /s USACE New Orleans District 19
13 Bonnet Carre <1/2> 1929 1931 PDF 150 cfs 42,500m 3 /s 25 cfs 7,100m 3 /s 5.7 9km 7,700 12,400 2.3~3.8km 350 1 20 9 2011 5 9 6 20 330 31.6 cfs 8,900m 3 /s PDF USACE New Orleans District 20
14 Bonnet Carre <2/2> USACE New Orleans District 2012 2 2 36 3 2012 2 2 2011 1.5 21
15 MRC Motor Vessel Mississippi 2 High-water Inspection Low-water Inspection 2011 Highwater 4/10-15 Low-water 8/6-19 2011 High-water Inspection 240 TV Facebook Youtube Twitter Motor Vessel Mississippi Facebook USACE MVD 22
16 <1/2> 2011 2010 1927 BPNM Morganza Bonnet Carre 1928 1927 1,680 6.8 km 2 2011 635 2.6 km 2 1927 38% MRC 2011 MR&T Flood Report 23
17 <2/2> MR&T 2011 36.6 21.2 58% 165.2 33.5 20% stakeholder MVD Walsh MRC ENR Engineering News- Record 2011 Newsmakers25 MRC 2011 MR&T Flood Report 24
4 2011 25
2 1983 ( ) (km 2 ) (100 ) 1983 3 11,900 6,600 * 1995 30 6,140 7,761 1996 5 7,120 2,029 2002 15 5,080 1,915 2006 20 19,000 4,167 RID 26
3 Kew Kor Mar (2010) Mae Ngat (1985) Mae Kuang (1993) Kew Lom (1972) Kaeng Sua Ten (1,175 MCM) or Mae Yom & Upper Mae Yom (666 MCM) Kwae Noi (2009) Sirikit (1970) Bhumibol (1964) Mae Wong (258 MCM) Thap Salao (1988) NAKHONSAWAN PROVINCE CPY Barrage(1957) Pasak (1999) Kra Seio (1982) Rama VI Barrage (1924) 10 260 m 3 BANGKOK RID 27
Western drainage network 585 cms 4 Nakhon Sawan Eastern drainage network 275 cms Thachin River Capacity 320 cms. CPY Barrage Chao Phraya River (Singburi) Capacity 2,200 cms. Chao Phraya River (Angthong) Capacity 2,000 cms. Chao Phraya River (Ayutthaya) Capacity 1,300 cms. RID Chao Phraya River (Bang Sai) Capacity 3,300 3,500 cms. 28
5 JICA 29
6 2011 <1/3> 2011 5 7 Nock-Ten TMD 30
7 2011 <2/3> 2011 3 8 1971-2000 above below Region Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma y Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Total North -10-40 333 76 41 43 43 22 46 8-61 40 Northeast -95-15 -39-8 10-11 54 26 46 64-68 23 Central -77 73 305 51 39 20 41 15-2 -2-87 22 East -100 63 113 42-20 2-3 7 40 20-78 11 Southeast 195-43 1005-13 -9 11 25 23-15 -4-27 35 Southwest 178-30 502-27 -15-28 3 14 2-14 -13 8 Country 109-7 369 20 10 5 29 18 27 10-34 24 TMD 31
8 2011 <3/3> 2011 1 10 1,822.4mm 28% TMD 32
9 2011 2011 12 2011 2011 9 2012 1 5 1,360 823 2011 12 AFP 40 GDP1.5 3.8% 2.3% 4,938.6 3,579 1 2.6 0.3USD JICA 33
ปร มาณน า ( - m ลบ.ม. 3 /sec) / ว นาท 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 10 C.2 ปร มาณน าไหลผ าน ท สถาน C.2 แม น าเจ าพระยา ท ค ายจ ระประว ต อ.เม อง จ.นครสวรรค Flood Peak Year. Dater Volume 1995 1-Oct 4,820 2002 2-Oct 3,997 2007 20-Oct 2,503 2008 5-Nov 2,398 2009 8-Oct 2,225 2010 26-Oct. 2,815 2011 13-Oct 4,686 ระด บ Level 26.20 26.20 ม. m, ปร มาณน า volume 3,500 3,500 cms. cms เร Start มท วมสถาน C.2 flooding lowland และพ นท ต at าเขตเทศบาลเม องนครสวรรค station C2, Nakhonsawan 2010 2008 2002 1995 ป 2551 ป น า 2552 ป 2553 ป 2538 ป 2545 ป 2554 2011 RID 1 December 2011 Discharge 2011 = 1,149 m 3 /sec Discharge 2010 = 588 m 3 /sec More than 2010 = 561 m 3 /sec Water level +21.43 m (below the bank 4.77 m) 1,000 0 1 Apr. เม.ย. 15 เม.ย. 29 เม.ย. 13 พ.ค. 27 พ.ค. 10 ม.ย. 24 ม.ย. 8 ก.ค. 22 ก.ค. 5 ส.ค. 19 ส.ค. 2 ก.ย. 16 ก.ย. 30 ก.ย. 14 ต.ค. 28 ต.ค. 11 พ.ย. 25 พ.ย. 9 ธ.ค. 23 ธ.ค. 6 ม.ค. 20 ม.ค. 3 ก.พ. 17 ก.พ. 3 ม.ค. 17 ม.ค. 31 Mar. ม.ค. 34
11 C.2 8 Unit : MCM 2011 ( m 3 ) Forecast flow 1995 2002 2006 November 7, 2011 (28,260 MCM) 2006 1995 2002 August September October November RID 35
12 2011 10 2 Bhumipol Sirikit 100 m 3 36
13 2011 9 11 10 12 11 6 2011 11 8 RID, BMA 37
14 38
15 2011 <1/ > 2011 11 30 39
16 2011 <2/ > 2011 12 25 AIT ( ) AIT AIT AIT 40
17 <1/2> 2011 50 1999 JICA M/P 10 3m 3 /s 25m 3 /s 41
18 <2/2> - - RID - - M/P M/P 42
19 2011 11 2012 2 28 43
20 44
5 - - (1) IFNet GFAS (2) (3) (4) 2011 45
(1)-1 - -. No transmission Image Source : JAXA 46
(1)-2 IFNet (International Flood Network) Background Rising trend of flood damages Flood issues as becomingly serious concerns Few networks that dedicated to flood issues Necessity to give priority to flood issues Objectives To contribute to reduce flood damages by: Sharing knowledge and lessons, Promoting good practices, Raising awareness on flood risk among policy makers & citizen. Membership IFNet is an open, free network to everyone, currently 617 registered from 81 countries (as of 31 March, 2010). Advantage: Opportunity to receive GFAS information IFNet is an open network everyone can join! 47
(1)-3 GFAS (Global Flood Alert System) 1. Project Concept - Attempt to utilize satellite precipitation data for flood early warning - Support for existing flood early warning wherever necessary - Promoted both by MLIT and by JAXA 2. Development through collaboration among: i) JAXA as satellite precipitation data provider ii) IDI as system developer and operator iii) IFNet as flood early warning transmission network iv) Hydrological/ Meteorological Authorities, Disaster Management Sections, and River Managers of any part of the world as users of flood early warning and forecasting 3. Development until today: Up-grading from 3B42RT to GSMaP, which enabled more detailed and more rapid transmission of precipitation data. - 3B42RT (1998-2008) Mesh size: 0.25, data delay: 10 hours - GSMaP (2007-) Mesh size: 0.1 (10x10 km 2 ), data delay: 4 hours 4. Available data maximum hourly precipitation data within 24 hours 1-day, 3-day or 1-week precipitation data 48
(1)-4 GFAS i) Space agencies NASA Homepage Satellite observation Heavy rainfall in the river basin ii) IDI-Japan Download of data Data processing Mapping, Email System development River iv) Hydrological service to river authorities iii) IFNet Flood warning and forecasting by using GFAS Information etc. 1. IFNet Homepage 2. Email of heavy rain information to IFNet members in charge of flood forecasting and warning v) Residents/ NGOs/ Community leaders 49
(1)-5 You can select 1 or 3-day rain fall from pull-down menu here. Latest 1 day rainfall in the world is displayed on the initial page You can select from 9 regions Then, click here for display. 50
(1)-6 - Select 1 or 3-day rainfall from pull-down menu Latest 1 day rainfall is displayed Heavy rain area Area with rainfall above 1/5 return period is shown by red. 51
(1)-7 Heavy rain caused by Typhoon Nargis (using GSMaP data) 01 May 2008 02 May 2008 03 May 2008 04 May 2008 Mawlamyaing (Moulmein) From any parts of the world, hourly precipitation data of any place (mesh) can be obtained even though ground observations are not available. 52
(1)-8 GFAS from Tokyo to Philippines Alert mail (sample) E-mail SAMPLE: Heavy rain information to ZZ area at ---. Mean basin precipitation of Ayeyarwady is XX mm/day. Please check on IFNet website! http://xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx to Tokyo from Philippines Request mail (sample) Set up a new interface for **** City. The alert is so frequent that you should reset the alert level as 50mm/h. 53
(2)-1 Pilot study areas: Huong Khe (Ha Tinh), Mai Hoa (Quang Binh) 54
(2)-2 2010/10/11-10/20 300 250 Huong Khe(Ground) GSMaP_NRT N20 Precipitation(mm/6hr) 200 150 100 50 0 10/11 01 10/11 07 10/11 13 10/11 19 10/12 01 10/12 07 10/12 13 10/12 19 10/13 01 10/13 07 10/13 13 10/13 19 10/14 01 10/14 07 10/14 13 10/14 19 10/15 01 10/15 07 10/15 13 10/15 19 10/16 01 10/16 07 10/16 13 10/16 19 10/17 01 10/17 07 10/17 13 10/17 19 10/18 01 10/18 07 10/18 13 10/18 19 10/19 01 10/19 07 10/19 13 10/19 19 10/20 01 10/20 07 10/20 13 10/20 19 Huong Khe (Ha Tinh) N19 Huong Khe, Ha Tinh (R=0.158) N18 Precipitation(mm/6hr) 300 250 200 150 100 50 Mai Hoa(Ground) GSMaP_NRT Mai Hoa (Quang Binh) N17 0 10/11 01 10/11 07 10/11 13 10/11 19 10/12 01 10/12 07 10/12 13 10/12 19 10/13 01 10/13 07 10/13 13 10/13 19 10/14 01 10/14 07 10/14 13 10/14 19 10/15 01 10/15 07 10/15 13 10/15 19 10/16 01 10/16 07 10/16 13 10/16 19 10/17 01 10/17 07 10/17 13 10/17 19 10/18 01 10/18 07 10/18 13 10/18 19 10/19 01 10/19 07 10/19 13 10/19 19 10/20 01 10/20 07 10/20 13 10/20 19 Mai Hoa, Quang Binh (R=0.499) E105 E106 E107 N16 Note: GSMaP_NRT data is the maximum one among the four mesh data. ( 55
(2)-3 2010/10/11-10/20 600 500 Huong_Khe(Ground) GSMaP_NRT N20 Precipitation(mm/day) 400 300 200 100 0 2010/10/11 2010/10/12 2010/10/13 2010/10/14 2010/10/15 2010/10/16 2010/10/17 2010/10/18 2010/10/19 2010/10/20 Huong Khe (Ha Tinh) N19 Huong Khe, Ha Tinh (R=0.598) N18 Precipitation(mm/day) 600 500 400 300 200 Mai Hoa(Ground) GSMaP_NRT Mai Hoa (Quang Binh) N17 100 0 2010/10/11 2010/10/12 2010/10/13 2010/10/14 2010/10/15 2010/10/16 2010/10/17 2010/10/18 2010/10/19 2010/10/20 Mai Hoa, Quang Binh (R=0.306) E105 E106 E107 N16 Note: GSMaP_NRT data is the maximum one among the four mesh data. ( 56
(2)-4 3 2010/10/11-10/20 Precipitation(mm/3days) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Huong_Khe(Ground) GSMaP_NRT 2010/10/13 2010/10/14 2010/10/15 2010/10/16 2010/10/17 2010/10/18 2010/10/19 2010/10/20 Huong Khe (Ha Tinh) N20 N19 Huong Khe, Ha Tinh (R=0.881) N18 Precipitation(mm/3days) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Mai Hoa(Ground) GSMaP_NRT Mai Hoa (Quang Binh) N17 0 2010/10/13 2010/10/14 2010/10/15 2010/10/16 2010/10/17 2010/10/18 2010/10/19 2010/10/20 Mai Hoa, Quang Binh (R=0.942) E105 E106 E107 N16 Note: GSMaP_NRT data is the maximum one among the four mesh data. ( 57
(2)-5 Huong Khe Mai Hoa 6-hours precipitation 0.158 0.499 1-day precipitation 0.598 0.306 3-days precipitation 0.881 0.942 3 Ground(mm/3days) 800 600 400 200 y = 1.45x R = 0.881 Precipitation(mm/3days) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Huong_Khe(Ground) GSMaP_NRT GSMaP_NRT 1.45 100 0 0 200 400 600 800 GSMaP_NRT (mm/3days) 0 2010/10/13 2010/10/14 2010/10/15 2010/10/16 2010/10/17 2010/10/18 2010/10/19 2010/10/20 58
(3)-1 (1/3, 1/5, 1/10 ) Pilot Areas : Huong Khe, Ca River Basin Mai Hoa, Gianh River Basin Ha Noi China Laos Thailand Ca River 28,000km 2 Cambodia Viet Nam Ho Chi Minh Huong Khe Gianh River 4,640km 2 Mai Hoa 59
(3)-2 2 3 10 1/10 10 20 50 70 100 150 200 250 300 (mm) Ca River 190 mm/2days Ca River 203 mm/3days Huong Khe Huong Khe 361 mm/2days 443 mm/3days Mai Hoa Mai Hoa Gianh River 394 mm/2days Gianh River 437 mm/3days 363 mm/2days 420 mm/3days 2-days precipitation 3-days precipitation Used Data:2003-2011 (9 years) 60
(3)-3 3 1/3, 1/5, 1/10 Ca River Gianh River 1/3 156 mm 252 mm 1/5 177 mm 317 mm GSMaP 1/10 1/10 203 mm 420 mm 1/30 243 mm 633 mm Flood Alert 61
(4)-1 2011 GSMaP 3 (2008 2011 7-9 ) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Basin mean precipitation in Chao Phraya River Basin from July to September 518mm 424mm 527mm 710mm DATA/ GSMaP MVK(2008) GSMaP NRT(2009-2011) Average(Bangkok) 0 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1,000 1,200(mm) 62
(4)-2 GSMaP 2008 2009 2010 Average of 3 years (2008-2010) July 164mm 128mm 147mm 146mm August 164mm 151mm 217mm 177mm September 190mm 145mm 162mm 166mm Total rainfall in 3 months 518mm 424mm 527mm 490mm 2011 (compared to 3 years average) 205mm (140%) 225mm (127%) 279mm (168%) 710mm (145%) 2011 7-8 3 27-40% 9 68% 3 8 9 8 63
(4)-3 GSMaP ambon 1 Web 6 1 2 3 1 1 5 1 64
(4)-4 - <1/2>- Basin 1 hour 6 hours 1 day 2 days 3 days week month Click Basin Basin 65
(4)-5 - <2/2>- 66
(4)-6 - Tambon <1/2>- Tambon Tambon 1 hour 6 hours 1 day 2 days 3 days week month Tambon Click Tambon Click 67
(4)-7 - Tambon <2/2>- Tambon 68
(4)-8 Precipitation(mm/hr) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011 7-9 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 816 817 818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825 826 827 828 829 830 831 901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910 911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921 922 923 924 925 926 927 928 929 930 2011 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 mm/month 1/2 217.4mm/month 8/17 5:00 1 1/2 1/3 236.4mm/month 8/19 9:00 1 1/3 1/5 257.5mm/month 1/10 284.1mm/month 8/20 21:00 1 1/5 9/12 17:00 1 1/10 8 1/2 9 1/10 69
2011 70
USACE MVD Memphis District New Orleans District FEMA BMA DWR RID DDPM TMD EIT AIT ESCAP JICA 2012 1 30 USACE MVD 2011 12 23 71
Please contact to 2bu01@idi.or.jp: IFNet: http://www.internationalfloodnetwork.org GFAS: http://gfas.internationalfloodnetwork.org/ngfas-web/ 72