アジアの資本移動の変化に関するクラスター分析 アジア域内の証券投資活性化に向けて

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1 * ** relation * ** Seoul conference China and Emerging Asia: Reorganizing the Global Economy? held by KIEP and Seoul National University Hugh Patrick Yung-Chul Park East Asian Economic Association 1th International Convention

2 IS 65% 4.9% 8% 8.2% 199

3 1 Foreign Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Loan 2 1 Push Pull Jeanneau and Micu [22] Ferrucci, et al. [24] Jeanneau and Micu [22] 2 2) Papaioannou [25] Daude and Frantzscher [26] 3) ) 2) Gravity Model 3)

4 relation Revenue Bond 4) JP A B B/A 3.3% % 1 22 ID MY PH SG TH CN HK JP KR ID MY PH SG TH CN HK KR IDMY PH SG THCNHKJPKR IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) 4)

5 Asian Development Bank, Key Indicators % 4.9% 1 8% 42.8%37.2% 8.2% 2 6.5% 3

6 Daiwa Institute of Research [26] IMF, Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS)

7 5) BIS ) Ant ant = A + B + C + D nt nt A a B b C c D d n 1 t % 5% 9% 51% nt nt nt ( a, b, c d ) S, nt ) nt nt nt 5) 6) BIS 4 7) 2

8 4 òø òú òú òú òú òôòø òú ó òú ó òú ó òú ó òú ùòòòø ò ó ó òø ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òôò ó òú ó òú ùòø òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó ò ó ó òø ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ùòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòø òôòòòòò ó ó ò ó ó òø ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òôòòòòòòò ó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó ò ó òøó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òúó òôòòòòòòòòòòòø ó òú ó ó òú ó ó 1 2 3

9 4 òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó ò ó ó òø ó ó òú ó ó òú ùòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòòò òú ó òú ó òú ó òôòø ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ó ó òú ùòòòòòòòòò òú ó òú ó òú ó òú ó òú ó ò ó òø ó òú ó òú ó òôòú ò ó òø ó òú ó òú ó òôò òú òú òú òú òú ò Indonesia

10 ,99, , ,98, b 26-b b 25 No No.1 No ) ) 6 FDI PortfolioBank Loan

11 5 (1) (2) (3) (4)

12 ,99, 1 () () , ,98,1-2 5 () CN HK IN ID KR MH PH SG TW TH CNHKIN IDKRMY PH SGTWTH

13 HK96 CN96 IN96 ID96 KR96 MY96 PH96 SG96 TW96 TH HK5 CN5 IN5 ID5 KR5 MY5 PH5 SG5 TW5 TH5

14 TH TH96.2 TH99 TH98.1 TH97.9 TH2 TH1 TH5 TH4 TH Pull Push

15 9 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, -4, 1 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25,

16 11 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, 12 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8,

17 ) Pull Pull Push Pull NIES 13 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, )

18 ) , 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, ) Push 1-2 Pull

19 , 1,5 2, 2,5 3,

20 Push Pull Push Pull 1997 Push , , ,524 2, ,741 26, ,374 13, ,574 8, ,418 4, ,187 7, ,7 63,

21 Push 199 Pull Push 1 11) Pull Pull / Push La Porta, et al. [1999] Claessens, et al. [2] 11)

22 La Porta, et al. [1998] enforcement Allen, et al. [25] 2 12) 4 The Asian Committee of Financial Regulators relationship ) IT face to face

23 face to face 13) Credit Risk Database 14) 13) [26] 14) 2 1,

24 Private Finance Initiative PFI 3% 7% 3% 1/7= ) BIS )

25 16) a b % BRICs % ) 3

26 1 2% % %

27 16-a 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 16-b 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

28 17-a 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, BIS 17-b 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

29 18-a 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, BIS 18-b 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

30 19-a 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, BIS 19-b 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

31 2-a 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 2-b 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

32 21-a 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, BIS 21-b 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

33 22-a 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 22-b 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

34 23-a 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 23-b 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

35 24-a 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, BIS 24-b 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

36 25-a 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, BIS 25-b 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BIS

37 Allen, F., J. Qian, and M. Qian [25] Law, Finance and economic growth in China, Journal of Financial Economics, 77, Claessens, S., S. Djankov, and L. Lang [2], The Separation of Ownership and Control in East Asian Corporations, Journal of Financial Economics, 58, Daiwa Institute of Research [26], A Report on Institutional Arrangements Regulations Surrounding Cross-Border Capital Flows in ASEAN+3 Economies, July 26. Daude, C. and M. Frantzscher [26], The Pecking Order of Cross-border Investment, Working Paper Series No. 59, European Central Bank. Ferrucci, G., V. Herzberg, F. Soussa and A. Taylor [24], Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, Financial Stability Review, June 24, pp , Bank of England. [26] 21 COE, DP Jeanneau, S. and M. Micu [22], Determinants of International Bank Lending to Emerging Market Countries, BIS Working Papers No. 112, Bank for International Settlements. La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes, and A. Shleifer [1999], Corporate Ownership Around the World, Journal of Finance, 54(2), pp La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes, A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny [1998], Law and Finance, Journal of Political Economy, 16(6), pp Papaioannou, E. [25], What Drives International Bank Flows? Politics, Institutions and Other Determinants, Working Paper Series No. 437, European Central Bank. Wakeling, D., L. Rogers and D. Flood [24], Asian Capital Flows, Reserve Bank Bulletin, August 24, pp , Reserve Bank of Australia. Yoshino, N. and T. Iijima [26], China and Japan: Rivals or Collaborators. Paper presented at the conference held by KIEP and Seoul National University; May, Seoul, Korea. Available from URL: BIS Available from URL: Available from URL: Available from URL:

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