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1 CGE Part 12 * Date: 2016/04/03, Verson Armngton Armngton Armngton Armngton Armngton p EW p MW * : 1
2 ˆ autarky or closed economy ˆ ˆ CGE ˆ Part 12 CGE ˆ CGE Part 12 2 ˆ 2
3 ˆ EU FTA CGE GTAP (Hertel, 1999) MIT EPPA (Paltsev et al., 2005) OECD ENV-Lnkages (Burnaux et al., 2008) Takeda et al. (2013) Takeda et al. (2012) Takeda et al. (2011) Takeda (2010) CGE 1 ˆ A1 ˆ A2 A1 A2 A2 A2 A1 A2 A2 CGE ˆ ˆ 1 (2007) 3
4 Part Armngton 3.1 Armngton Cross-Haulng 1 Part CGE 1) 2) CGE 1 CGE 2 Armngton (1969) Armngton Armngton CGE CGE Armngton 2 4
5 3.2 Armngton 1: , 464 2, 092, , , 821, , , 517, , , 985, , , , , , 040 2, 384, , , , 604 3, , , , , 772, , , , 597, , 951, 417 3, 195, , 339 1, , 669, 407 3, 667, , 725, 705 7, 168, 697 8, , 768, , 709, 053 4, 774, 091 : Armngton Armngton CES q AM q AD CES q A [ q A = α AD ( ) q AD σ 1 σ + α AM ( q AM ] σ ) σ 1 σ 1 σ Armngton Armngton aggregaton 3 σ Armngton σ q A (1) q A = q AD + q AM Armngton σ < (1) Armngton (1) q A q AM q AD Armngton 3 Armngton (2007) 5
6 Armngton 1) 2) Armngton Part Armngton Armngton Armngton Part 12 Armngton 4 Part 10 Part 2 c = j (α x j) σ (p j ) 1 σ + (α v ) σ (p va ) 1 σ 1 1 σ {c } (2) c va = f (β v f) σv [ (1 + t F f )p F f ] 1 σ v 1 1 σ v {c va } (3) c u = j 1 (γ j ) [ 1 σ σc (1 + t C ] c 1 σ c j )p j {c u } (4) c p = 0 {y } (5) c va p va = 0 {v a } (6) c u p u = 0 {u} (7) 6
![va = f (β v f) σv [ (1 + t F f )p F f ] 1 σ v 1 1 σ v {c va } (3) c u = j 1 (γ j ) [ 1 σ σc](/docs-images/41/22543584/images/page_6.jpg "(1 + t C ] c 1 σ c j )p j {c u } (4) c p = 0 {y } (5) c va p va = 0 {v a } (6) c u p u = 0")
7 [ α x ] a x j c σ j = {a x p j [ α a v v = c [ p va j} (8) ] σ {a v } (9) β v f a F f = (1 + t F f )pf f cva [ a u γ c u ] σ c = (1 + t C )p ] σ v {a F f} (10) {a u } (11) y = j a x jy j + a u u {p } (12) v a = a v y v f = {p va } (13) a F fv a {p F f } (14) u = m p u {p u } (15) m = f p F f v f + t C p d +,f t F fp F f v f {m} (16) Armngton Armngton q AM CES Armngton q A q AD q A = f A (q AD, q AM ) = [ α AD ( q AD ) σdm 1 σ DM + α AM ( q AM ] σdm ) σ DM 1 σ DM 1 σ DM Armngton Armngton CES c A mn a AD,a AM [ p D a AD + p M a AM f A (a AD, a AM ) = 1 ] 7
8 5.2 c A Armngton 1 Shephard a M a D a AM = ca p M a AD = ca p D f A (1) c A aam a AD [ c A = a AD = a AM = (α AD [ α AD c A p D [ α AM c A p M ) σdm (p D ) 1 σdm ] σ DM ] σ DM + (α AM ) σdm (p M ) 1 σdm ] 1 1 σ DM {c A } {a AD } {a AM } Armngton p A Armngton π A π A = (p A c A )q A {π A } Armngton q A π A q A = 0 c A p A = 0 {q A } Armngton 5.2 Armngton CGE Part 12 y y E yd y = y E + y D (17) (17) (17) CET constant elastcty of transformaton y = g S (y E, y D ) = [ δ ES (y E ) η DE +1 η DE + δ DS (y D ) ] ηde η DE +1 η DE +1 η DE (18) 8
9 5.2 δ ES δ DS η DE η DE { 1, + } CES elastcty of transformaton (17) 0 4 国 内 向 供 給 B: 完 全 代 替 C: 代 替 なし A: 不 完 全 な 代 替 輸 出 向 供 給 1: CET CET y A (0, ) B C 0 η DE = η DE = 0 Armngton CET r y r y max a ES,a DS [ p E a ES + p D a DS g S (a ES, a DS ) = 1 ] p E pd 4 CET 9
10 5.3 Shephard a ES a DS a ES = ry p E {a ES } (19) a DS = ry p D {a DS } (20) a ES y a DS y CET (18) Part A-1 [ r y = (δ ES ) ηde (p E ) 1+ηDE + (δ DS [ p a ES E = δ ES r y [ p a DS D = δ DS r y ] η DE ] η DE ) ηde (p D ) 1+ηDE ] 1 1+η DE (21) (22) (23) p EW / p EX p E p E /p EX = p EW p MW p M p M = p EX p MW p EX Armngton Armngton Armngton x M x M = a AM q A = [ α AM c A (1+ M )p M ] σ DM q A (24) t M (1 + t M )p M 10
![1+ηDE ] 1 1+η DE (21) (22) (23) 5.3 5.3.1 p EW / p EX p E p E /p EX = p EW p MW p M p M = p EX p MW p EX 6.2 5.](/docs-images/41/22543584/images/page_10.jpg "3.2 Armngton Armngton Armngton x M x M = a AM q A = [ α AM c A (1+ M )p M ] σ DM q A (24) t M (1 + t M )p M 10")
11 x E x E [ p = a ES E y = δ ES r y ] η DE y (25) (12) p y = j a x jy j + a u u (25) a DS y Armngton a AD q A p D a DS y = a AD q A {p D } Armngton Armngton j a x j y j a u u Armngton q A = j a x jy j + a u u {p A } Armngton p A ˆ A1 ˆ A2 5 11
12 5.4 A p EW x E pmw x M TS TS = p EW x E p MW x M A1 TS p EX p EW x E p EX p MW x M = TS {p EX } > (16) m = f p F f v f + t C p A d +,f t F fp F f v f + t M p M x M m D = m p EX TS m D p EX TS p EX TS TS < (29) Armngton Armngton p A c = j (α x j) σ (p A j ) 1 σ + (α v ) σ (p va ) 1 σ 1 1 σ {c } (26) c va = f (β v f) σv [ (1 + t F f )p F f ] 1 σ v 1 1 σ v {c va } (27) 12
13 5.4 c u = j (γ j ) σc [ (1 + t C j )p A j ] 1 σ c 1 1 σ c {c u } (28) [ c A = (α AD r y = [ ) σdm (p D ) 1 σdm + (α AM ) σdm ([1 + t M ]p M ) 1 σdm ] 1 1 σ DM {c A } (29) (δ ES ) ηde (p E ) 1+ηDE + (δ DS ) ηde (p D ) 1+ηDE ] 1 1+η DE {r y } (30) p EW p MW x E x M p E = p EX p EW {x E } (31) p EX p MW = p M {x M } (32) 0 Armngton c r y = 0 {y } (33) c va p va = 0 {v a } (34) c u p u = 0 {u} (35) c A p A = 0 {q A } (36) (41) (42) Armngton a x j = [ α x j c p A j [ α a v v = c a F f = [ p va ] σ {a x j} (37) ] σ {a v } (38) β v f (1 + t F f )pf f cva [ a u γ c u = (1 + t C )pa [ α AD c A a AD = p D ] σ c ] σ DM [ a AM α AM c A = (1 + t M )p M ] σ v ] σ DM {a F f} (39) {a u } (40) {a AD } (41) {a AM } (42) 13
![va = 0 {v a } (34) c u p u = 0 {u} (35) c A p A = 0 {q A } (36) (41) (42) Armngton a x j = [ α x j c p A j [ α a v v = c a F f = [ p va ] σ {a x j} (37) ] σ {a v } (38) β v f (1](/docs-images/41/22543584/images/page_13.jpg "+ t F f )pf f cva [ a u γ c u = (1 + t C )pa [ α AD c A a AD = p D ] σ c ] σ DM [ a AM α AM c A = (1 + t M )p M ] σ v ] σ DM {a F f} (39) {a u } (40) {a AD } (41) {a AM } (42) 13")
14 5.4 [ p a ES E = δ ES r y [ p a DS D = δ DS r y ] η DE ] η DE {a ES } (43) {a DS } (44) Armngton a DS y = a AD q A {p D } (45) q A = j v a = a v y v f = a x jy j + a u u {p A } (46) {p va } (47) a F fv a {p F f } (48) u = md p u {p u } (49) (49) m D a ES y x E x M Armngton a AM q A a ES y = x E {p E } (50) x M = a AM q A {p M } (51) p EW x E p MW x M = TS {p EX } (52) m = f p F f v f + t C p A d +,f t F fp F f v f + t M p M x M {m} (53) m D = m p EX TS {m D } (54) (26) (54) {c } {c va } {c u } {c A } {r y } {pe } {pm } {y } {v a} {u} {qa } {ax j } {av } {af f } {au } {aad } {a AM } {a ES } {a DS } {p D } {pa } {pva } {p F f } {pu } {y E} {qam } {p EX } {m} {m D } 14
15 6 5 CGE 6.1 MCP MCP (31) (32) p E pm p E pm x E xm (31) p E = p EW p EX p E p E p EW p EW p EX (31) 0 (33) (36) 0 6 (31) (33) (36) (31) (32) p EX p MW 0 = p M (31) (32) x E xm x E xm (50) (51) p E pm
16 6.2 a ES y = x E x E p E (51) x M = a AM q A Armngton p M (31) (32) x E xm (50) (51) p E pm GAMS (31) (32) p E pm (50) (51) x E xm 6.2 (52) TS p EX (52) (52) (52) (52) p EW pew x E p MW pmw x M TS TS pew x E pmw x M + TS (52) (52) 1 (52) 16
17 6.3 p EW p MW (52) 6.3 p EW p MW (52) p EW p MW p EW p MW p EW p MW a E (31) (32) (52) = p EW a M = p MW p E = a E p EX {x E } a M p EX = p M {x M } a E x E a M x M = TS {p EX } p EW p MW 7 0 p E p M p EX p E = λp E p M = λp M p EX = λp EX p E pm p EX 0 ˆ p EW p MW ˆ 7 (2004) p ε 17
18 = (55) CGE (55) 9 (31) (32) p E p M j = pew p MW j, j (56) j j (31) (32) p E p M = p EW (57) = p MW (58)
19 6.6 (52) (53) (54) TS TS = f p F f v f + t C p A d +,f t F fp F f v f + t M p M x M m D p EX = 1 TS = f p F f v f m D TS = p A j a j y r y y j p A a u u = r y y p A a j y j + a u u j = = = r y y [ p D a DS p A q A y + p E a ES p E a ES y p M ] [ y p D a AD a AM q A = q A + p M a AM p E x E p M x M q A ] = p EW x E p MW x M (52) CGE cross-haulng Armngton 5.2 CET Armngton cross-haulng CET 19
![D a DS p A q A y + p E a ES p E a ES y p M ] [ y p D a AD a AM q A = q A + p M a AM p E x E p M x M](/docs-images/41/22543584/images/page_19.jpg "q A ] = p EW x E p MW x M (52) 6.6 3 CGE cross-haulng Armngton 5.2 CET Armngton cross-haulng CET 19")
20 6.6 CET r y = pd = p E ˆr y = ˆpD ρ = ˆp E ˆ 10 p E = p EW p EX ˆp E = ˆp EX ˆp EX = ρ cross-haulng p M = p MW p EX ˆp M = ˆp EX p M ˆp M = ρ ˆp D = ˆp M = ρ ˆp A = ρ ˆr y = ˆpD = ˆp E = ˆp M = ˆp A = ˆp EX = ρ ˆp EX ˆr y = ˆpD = ˆp E = ˆp M = ˆp A = ˆp EX = ρ 3 cross-haulng cross-haulng 10 ˆr y = ry /ry 20
21 TPP CGE
22 p EX /p u = p EX / p u p u TS TS (52) (54) p EW x E p MW x M = TS {TS} m D = m p EX TS {m D } p EX /p u TS TS
23 s F p EX TS = s F m p EW x E p EX TS = s F m p MW x M = TS {p EX } {TS} m D = (1 s F )m {m D } : SAM Sector Sector Sector Factor Factor DE DE DE Goods Goods Goods Other Agent Agent Sum AGR MAN SER LAB CAP AGR MAN SER AGR MAN SER UTL HH ROW Sector AGR Sector MAN Sector SER Factor LAB Factor CAP DE AGR DE MAN DE SER Goods AGR Goods MAN Goods SER Other UTL Agent HH Agent ROW Sum
24 2 SAM Part_12_SAM_example.xlsx ˆ SAM Part 7 SAM3 SAM SAM Part 7 ˆ SAM Part 7 SAM3 4 ž Part_7_SAM_Japan.xlsx SAM ž ž DE ž Part 10 ˆ 3 AGR MAN SER CAP LAB ˆ Sector ž Sector ž AGR LAB 40 CAP 30 AGR MAN SER ˆ Factor ž ž HH ˆ DE ž ž ˆ Goods ž Armngton ž AGR ˆ Other 24
25 ž ž AGR MAN SER ˆ Agent ž ž ROW ž HH ˆ Sector ž Sector ž SAM 1 DE ˆ Factor ž 3 ˆ DE ž ž ROW Agent ž 130 AGR ˆ Goods ž Armngton ž 140 AGR Armngton AGR MAN SER ˆ Other ž HH ˆ Agent ž HH ž ROW 25
26 8 5 one_regon.gms one_regon.gms data_create.gms Part_12_SAM_example.gdx 8.1 $ontext $offtext parameter fl_fts " " fl_fex " " fl_alt " " ; fl_fts = 1; fl_fex = 0; fl_alt = 0; 3 ˆ 5.4 ˆ ˆ fl_fts = 1 * * parameter sg_dm() Armngton eta_de() ; * 4 sg_dm() = 4; eta_de() = 4; dsplay sg_dm, eta_de; Armngton sg_dm eta_de 4 26
27 8.1 parameter p_ew0() p_mw0() ; * 1 p_ew0() = 1; p_mw0() = 1; dsplay p_ew0, p_mw0; Harberger convenson 1 1 parameter srate_f ; srate_f = ts0 / sum(f, SAM("Agent","hh","Factor",f)); dsplay srate_f; parameter alpha_x(j,) alpha_v() beta_v(f,) gamma() alpha_ad() alpha_am() delta_es() delta_ds() ; Armngton Armngton CET CET Armngton CET Part 8 parameter rt_m() rt_m0() ; * rt_m0() = 0; rt_m() = rt_m0(); 27
28 8.2 0 * Armngton e_c_a().. c_a() =e= ((alpha_ad()**(sg_dm()) * (p_d())**(1-sg_dm()))$a_ad0() + (alpha_am()**(sg_dm()) * ((1+rt_m())*p_m())**(1-sg_dm()))$a_am0() )**(1/(1-sg_dm())); * e_r_y().. r_y() =e= ((delta_es()**(-eta_de()) * (p_e())**(1+eta_de()))$a_es0() + (delta_ds()**(-eta_de()) * (p_d())**(1+eta_de()))$a_ds0() )**(1/(1+eta_de())); Armgton 5.4 a_am0() a_es0() * e_p_ex.. (ts - ts0)$fl_fts + (p_ex / p_u - 1)$fl_fex + (p_ex * ts - srate_f * m)$fl_alt =e= 0; fl_fts = 1 ts - ts0 =e= 0 e_m_d.. m_d =e= m - p_ex * (ts0$fl_fts + ts$fl_fex + ts$fl_alt); * * p_d.fx("agr") = 1; AGR 8.2 benchmark replcaton 3 ˆ bench benchmark replcaton ˆ cap_ 20% 28
29 8.3 ˆ rt_c ž MAN SER 10 % ˆ rt_m ž AGR 20 % AGR y_ c_ d_ e_ m_ p_u one_regon.gms cap_ ˆ cap_ 20 % 15% 3 MAN SER AGR ˆ ts ts p_ex MAN ˆ MAN rt_c ˆ rt_c ˆ MAN SER MAN SER ˆ (1 + t C MAN )pa MAN p u (1 + t C SER )pa SER p u 29
30 8.3 rt_m ˆ 15 ˆ AGR AGR ˆ AGR p_a_agr ˆ MAN AGR (31) (32) 3: 変 数 の 水 準 変 数 の 変 化 率 (%) 貿 易 収 支 固 定 為 替 レート 固 定 貿 易 収 支 固 定 為 替 レート 固 定 bench cap_ rt_c rt_m cap fex rt_c_fex rt_m_fex cap_ rt_c rt_m cap fex rt_c_fex rt_m_fex u u y_agr y_agr y_man y_man y_ser y_ser c_agr c_agr c_man c_man c_ser c_ser d_agr d_agr d_man d_man d_ser d_ser e_agr e_agr e_man e_man m_agr m_agr m_man m_man ts ts p_d_m p_ex p_ex p_d_agr p_d_agr p_d_man p_d_man p_d_ser p_d_ser p_e_agr p_e_agr p_e_man p_e_man p_m_agr p_m_agr p_m_man p_m_man p_a_agr p_a_agr p_a_man p_a_man p_a_ser p_a_ser r_y_agr r_y_agr r_y_man r_y_man r_y_ser r_y_ser
31 one_regon.gms $ext 3 _fex cap fex ˆ 80 cap fex 43.8 MAN ˆ ˆ 15% 5.8% ˆ rt_c_fex ˆ rt_c_fex cap fex 0.01% 23% rt_m_fex ˆ rt_m_fex rt_c_fex
32 CET 6.6 p r y = pd = p E = p y = a AD q A + x E one_regon_cet.gms fl_cet = : 変 数 の 水 準 変 数 の 変 化 率 (%) CET 関 数 利 用 CET 関 数 利 用 せず CET 関 数 利 用 CET 関 数 利 用 せず bench cap_ rt_c rt_m cap ncet rt_c_ncet rt_m_ncet cap_ rt_c rt_m cap ncet rt_c_ncet rt_m_ncet u u y_agr y_agr y_man y_man y_ser y_ser c_agr c_agr c_man c_man c_ser c_ser d_agr d_agr d_man d_man d_ser d_ser e_agr e_agr e_man e_man m_agr m_agr m_man m_man ts p_ex p_d_m p_d_agr p_ex p_d_man p_d_agr p_d_ser p_d_man p_e_agr p_d_ser p_e_man p_e_agr p_m_agr p_e_man p_m_man p_m_agr p_a_agr p_m_man p_a_man p_a_agr p_a_ser p_a_man r_y_agr p_a_ser r_y_man r_y_agr r_y_ser r_y_man r_y_ser
33 8.5 CET CET cap ncet ˆ cap ncet cap_ ˆ ˆ cap_ AGR MAN 3.9% 14.7% cap ncet AGR 101% MAN 40% ˆ AGR 1190% ˆ CET ˆ p D AGR = 1 ˆ rt_c_ncet ˆ rt_c_ncet rt_c AGR ˆ rt_m_ncet ˆ rt_m_ncet AGR 100% ˆ AGR AGR ˆ AGR AGR MAN 33
34 8.6 ˆ 1) 2) ˆ CET 8.6 ˆ one_regon_alt.gms ˆ one_regon_tot.gms p EW p MW 9 Armngton, Paul S. (1969) A Theory of Demand for Products Dstngushed by Place of Producton, URL: Burnaux, Jean-Marc, Jean Château, and Jean Chateau (2008) An Overvew of the OECD ENV-Lnkages Model, URL: DOI: Hertel, Thomas W. (1999) Global Trade Analyss: Modelng and Applcatons, New York: Cambrdge Unversty Press, URL: Paltsev, Sergey V., John M. Relly, Henry D. Jacoby, Rchard S. Eckaus, James R. Mcfarland, Marcus Sarom, Malcolm Asadooran, and Mustafa H. Babker (2005) The MIT Emssons Predcton and Polcy Analyss (EPPA) Model: Verson 4. Takeda, Shro (2010) A computable general equlbrum analyss of the welfare eects of trade lberalzaton under derent market structures, Internatonal Revew of Appled Economcs, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 7593, January, URL: , DOI: Tosh H. Armura, and Makoto Sugno (2011) Labor Market Dstortons and Welfare- Decreasng Internatonal Emssons Tradng, URL: cfm?abstract_d=
35 , Tetsuya Hore, and Tosh H. Armura (2012) A Computable General Equlbrum Analyss of Border Adjustments under the Cap-And-Trade System: A Case Study of the Japanese Economy, Clmate Change Economcs, Vol. 03, No. 01, p , February, URL: DOI: Tosh H. Armura, Hanae Tamechka, Carolyn Fscher, and Alan K. Fox (2013) Outputbased allocaton of emssons permts for mtgatng the leakage and compettveness ssues for the Japanese economy, Envronmental Economcs and Polcy Studes, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp , August, URL: DOI: (2007) URL jp/jp/publcatons/summary/ html (2004) 10 ˆ : 35
CGE 12 * Date: 2018/07/24, Verson 1.1.1 1 2 2 2 3 Armngton 4 3.1 Armngton.................................. 4 3.2 Armngton................................ 5 3.3..........................................
ˆ CGE ž ž ˆ 2 CGE 2 1 ˆ n = 1,, n n ˆ k f = 1,, k ˆ ˆ ˆ 3
CGE 2 * Date: 2018/07/24, Verson 1.2 1 2 2 2 2.1........................................... 3 2.2.......................................... 3 2.3......................................... 4 2.4..................................
: Harberger Conenton ˆ CGE ˆ CGE ˆ 2 CGE 2.1 CGE CGE CES constant elastcty of substtuton Cob
CGE Part 8 Date: 2015/11/21, Verson 1.2 1 2 2 2 2.1 CGE............................... 2 2.2 CES........................... 3 2.3 CES.................................. 3 3 CGE 5 3.1.........................................
Solution Report
CGE 3 GAMS * Date: 2018/07/24, Version 1.1 1 2 2 GAMSIDE 3 2.1 GAMS................................. 3 2.2 GAMSIDE................................ 3 2.3 GAMSIDE............................. 7 3 GAMS 11
204 / CHEMISTRY & CHEMICAL INDUSTRY Vol.69-1 January 2016 047
9 π 046 Vol.69-1 January 2016 204 / CHEMISTRY & CHEMICAL INDUSTRY Vol.69-1 January 2016 047 β γ α / α / 048 Vol.69-1 January 2016 π π π / CHEMISTRY & CHEMICAL INDUSTRY Vol.69-1 January 2016 049 β 050 Vol.69-1
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4 5 6 7 + 8 = ++ 9 + + + + ++ 10 + + 11 12 WS LC VA L WS = LC VA = LC L L VA = LC L VA L 13 i LC VA WS WS = LC = VA LC VA VA = VA α WS α = VA VA i WS = LC VA i t t+1 14 WS = α WS + WS α WS = WS WS WS =
低費用航空会社による運賃競争の時間効果とスピルオーバー効果の計測：米国内複占市場のケース
1 3 Π Π 1 = = 1 1 1 1 1 ( A q γ q ) q α θ q q 1 1 1 1 ( A q γ q ) q α b θ q q mc ( α >, 0 < 1) 1 = α θ1q1 1 θ1 < ( α b) θ Q ( < θ < α b, < < α mc = 0 0 b ) γ b θ < θ < θ 1 0 < γ < γ1 1 0 1 < γ = 1 1 0
一般演題（ポスター）
6 5 13 : 00 14 : 00 A μ 13 : 00 14 : 00 A β β β 13 : 00 14 : 00 A 13 : 00 14 : 00 A 13 : 00 14 : 00 A β 13 : 00 14 : 00 A β 13 : 00 14 : 00 A 13 : 00 14 : 00 A β 13 : 00 14 : 00 A 13 : 00 14 : 00 A
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