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1 CMI CMIM ASEAN+ JEL Classification FFF The era of bilateralism is over

2 < Free Trade Agreement: FTA Asian Monetary Fund: AMF Chiang Mai Initiative: CMI ASEAN ASEAN Regional Forum: ARF East Asia Summit: EAS FTA Trans Pacific Partnership: TPP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: RCEP CMI CMIM ASEAN+ ASEAN+ ASEAN Macroeconomic Research Office: AMRO EAS TPP RCEP FTA AMRO

Partnership: TPP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: RCEP CMI CMIM

3 Kurlantzick ASEAN+ FTA Treaty of Amity of Cooperation: TAC desecuritizationgoh ASEAN ASEAN. Su Zhang and Tang commercial diplomacy Frost

4 <.,. Ross Khoo -dashed line Exclusive Economic Zone: EEZ United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea: UNCLOS % Cronin et al.

5 Beeson Quadrennial Defense Review: QDR Department of Defence QDR Gannon QDR multilateral QDR ASEAN Department of Defense Asia Pivot Marciel Bader Bader assertive EAS EAS EAS resultsoriented forum

6 < EAS EAS Straits Times, November ASEAN Secretariat EAS ASEAN EAS ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN EAS ASEAN UNCLOS UNCLOS ASEAN BBC News, August ASEAN ASEAN

7 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ASEAN ARF ASEAN ADMM

8 < ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN LCS ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN EAS ASEAN ASEAN

9 ASEAN ASEAN EAS ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN UNCLOS UNCLOS TPP FTA FTAASEAN ASEAN+ FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA FTA Bhagwati FTA ASEAN FTA ASEAN+ RCEP TPP

10 < ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN+ ASEAN+ ASEAN+ EAS ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN EAS ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN+ ASEAN+ WTO APEC lowest common denominator

11 Terada ASEAN+ FTA ASEAN ASEAN+ ASEAN+ EAFTA ASEAN+CEPEA ASEAN+ TPP ASEAN ASEAN+ FTA ASEAN GDP, ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Ministry of Foreign Affairs Singapore ASEAN+ FTA RCEP ASEAN FTA FTA ASEAN EAS FTA ASEAN ASEAN TPP TPP ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN TPP ASEAN ASEAN TPP ASEAN FTA RCEP

RCEP ASEAN FTA FTA ASEAN EAS FTA ASEAN ASEAN TPP TPP ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN TPP ASEAN ASEAN

12 < ASEAN TPP TPP ASEAN TPP RCEP FTA FTA EU FTA FTA % ASEAN RCEP FTA TPP TPP FTA RCEP RCEP FTA TPP RCEP FTA TPP WTO FTA FTA ASEAN ASEAN RCEP RCEP

13 ASEAN ASEAN TPP ASEAN ASEAN Hutagalung RCEP FTA ASEAN ASEAN FTA ODA ASEAN CMI IMF AMF Bowles AMF IMF

14 < CMI ASEAN Sussankarn ASEAN,. IMF. IMF IMF AMF Lim and Tay IMF AMF IMF Sussangkarn CMIM AMF CMIM IMF CMIM IMF CMI AMF CMI ASEAN+ CMI ASEAN+ CMI CMIM ASEAN+

15 ASEAN+ CMI BSA EWS (ERPD) EWS ADB CMI BSA ASEAN+ ABMI EWS ABMI ADB CMI BSA ABMI WG WG ABMI ADB ABW CMI ABMI CMI CMI ABMI IMF CMI BSA CMI CMIM CMI ASEAN CMI, CMIM CMIM ASEAN+ AMRO ABMI ASEAN+ ABMF ASEAN+ CMIM CMIM AMRO ASEAN+ CMIM, IMF

ABMI CMI CMI ABMI IMF CMI BSA CMI CMIM CMI ASEAN CMI, CMIM

16 <,, IMF, CMI CMIM CMI AMRO IMF IMF IMF Australia Financial Review, March IMF ASEAN Xinhua, October ASEAN+ IMF CMIM IMF Ciorciari CMIM ASEAN, /.htm

ASEAN+ IMF CMIM IMF Ciorciari CMIM ASEAN, http://www.

17 % % % ASEAN CMIM CMI IMF ADB IMF ADB.... CMIM ASEAN % % CMI GNP ASEAN Ciorciari ASEAN+ AMRO IMF AMRO ASEAN+ AMRO ASEAN+ Economic Review and Policy Dialogue: ERPA AFDM+ ERPD

18 < AMRO Ciorciari IMF Jiang AMRO AMRO AMRO IMF IMF IMF Wall Street Journal, October IMF TPP CMIM

19 IMF TPP RCEP TPP RCEP Halper market authoritarianism [state capitalism] Bremmer ARF EAS TPP RCEP CJK TPP RCEP TPP RCEP

20 < FTA ASEAN Secretariat ( ) Declaration of the East Asia Summit on the Principles for Mutually Beneficial Relations Bali, November Bader, Jeffery A. Obama and China s Rise: An Insider s Account of America s Asia Strategy, Brookings Institute, Washington D.C., p Bremmer, Ian ( ) State Capitalism Comes of Age The End of the Free Market? Foreign Affairs, May/June, p Bhagwati, Jagdish ( ) Termites in the Trading System: How Preferential Agreements Undermine Free Trade, Oxford University Press, Oxford Beeson, Mark ( ) Regionalism & globalization in East Asia, Palgrave Macmillan Bowles, Paul ( ) Asia s Post-Crisis Regionalism: Bringing the State Back In, Keeping the (United) States Out, Review of International Political Economy ( ), p Ciorciari, John D. ( ) Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, Asian Survey, ( ), pp.- Cronin, M. P., Peter A. Dutton, M. Taylor Fravel, James R. Holmes, Robert D. Kaplan, Will Rogers and Ian Storey ( ) Cooperation from Strength The United States, China and the South China Sea, CNAS, January Department of Defense ( ) Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February, p, ( ) National Military Strategy of the United States of America: Redefining America s Military Leadership, pp. - Frost, Ellen, L. ( ) China s Commercial Diplomacy in Asia: Promise or Threat? in William W. Keller and Thomas G. Rawski (eds.) China s Rise and the Balance of Infl uence in Asia, University of Pittsburgh Press, pp. - Gannon, Jim ( ) Engaging in Asia: The Evolving US Approach to Regional Community Building in M. Borthwick and T. Yamamoto (eds.) A Pacifi c Nation: Perspectives on the US Role in an East Asia Community, Japan Center for International Exchange, Tokyo, p Goh, Evelyn ( ) Great Powers and Hierarchical Order in Southeast Asia: Analyzing Regional

Foreign Affairs, May/June, p Bhagwati, Jagdish ( ) Termites in the Trading System: How Preferential Agreements Undermine Free Trade, Oxford University Press, Oxford Beeson, Mark ( ) Regionalism &

21 Security Strategies, International Security, ( ) Halper, Stefan ( ) The Beijing Consensus: How China s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century, Basic Books, NY Hutagalung, Martin ( ) ASEAN: An Integrated Market? in S. Tiwari (ed.) ASEAN: Life after the Charter, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore Jiang, Yang ( ) Response and Responsibility : China in East Asian Financial Cooperation, The Pacifi c Review, ( ), p Kurlantzick, Joshua ( ) China s Charm: Implications of Chinese Soft Power, Policy Brief No., June, Carnegie Endowment for Peace Khoo Nicholas ( ) Fear factor: Northeast Asian responses to China s rise Asian Security ( ) Lim, Hank and Tay, Simon ( ) Does Asia really need the IMF?, Today, May Marciel, Scot, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Statement Before the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, DC, July, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Singapore) ( ) MFA Press Statement: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong s Attendance at the st ASEAN Summit and Related Meetings, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, November Ross Rober ( ) China s Naval Nationalism Sources Prospects and the U S Response, International Security ( ), p Su, Xiaobo ( ) Rescaling the Chinese state and regionalization in the Great Mekong Subregion, Review of International Political Economy, ( ), p Sussangkarn, Chalongphob ( ) East Asian Financial Cooperation: Key to Crisis, Asahi Shimbun, May,( ) Institution building for macroeconomic and financial cooperation in East Asia: / / CS-CMIM-AMRO.pdf. Terada, Takashi ( ) The Japan-Australia Partnership in the Era of the East Asian Community: Can They Advance Together? Pacific Economic Papers, No., Zhang, Yunling and Tang, Shiping ( ) China s Regional Strategy, in Power Shift: China and Asia s New Dynamics, ed. David L. Shambaugh Berkeley: University of California Press, p

冷戦後の戦略環境変化とクリントン政権

冷戦後の戦略環境変化とクリントン政権 1998 11 3558 1 21 2 1 Paul D. Wolfowitz, Clinton s First Year, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 15 (January/February, 1994). 2 91 36 3 91 G-7 G-7 4 G-7 5 (primacy) 6 1949 1950 1962 10 71 89 11 91 12 3 James