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27 227 DS =+α log (Spread )+ β DSRate +γlend +δ DEx DS t Spread t 1 DSRate t Lend t DEx DS DEx Spread DS Lend

28 228 ** ** ** ** ** ** DS ** ** log (Spread) ** ** ** ** ** ** DSRate Lend * * ** ** ** ** DEx ** ** ** ** R D.W. t **=*= DEx DEx <0 log (Spread ) log (Spread ) Spread

29 229 DS = +α log (USpread )+α log ( DRisk ) +β DSRate +γ Lend +δ DEx USpread t DSpread t Spread USpread DSpread USpread DSpread

30 230 ** * DS ** ** log (USpread) * ** * * ** ** log (DSpread) * * * DSRate Lend * * ** ** ** ** DEx ** ** ** ** ** ** R D.W. t **=*= USpread DSpread USpread DSpread USpread DSpread USpread DSpread USpread

31 231 DSpread

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