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1 Making Sense of Real Estate Worldwide ィコィヲ0505ィ ィケ ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ 2005 RUSSIA 2005 REAL ESTATE REVIEW
2 13Colliers International 2005 ィコィヲ0505ィ ィケ ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ apple ク apple036ヲ00キ3090ク apple09 ィ apple ク8 006ヲ ヲ0 066ヲ006036ヲ003: RUSSIA 2005 REAL ESTATE REVIEW For more information about Colliers International, visit our web sites at
3 ィコィヲ0505ィ ィケ ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ ィコィャ ィケ 0500ィコ05ィ ィケ 05ィヲ0500ィコ050204ィ 00 ィコ fl. ィエ ケ apple ヲ0 ィ キ ィヲ ヲ0fl ヲ ヲ0fl ィェ07apple ヲ0fl ヲ ィィ000300apple 04apple6 7 ィ キ ィヲ ヲ0fl ヲ ヲ0fl ィェ07apple ヲ0fl ヲ0fl
4 1305 fl006 56ヲ0apple ヲ Colliers International 0ク8026ヲ0 08apple ヲ0 08apple000309fl ケ ヲ ヲ apple6ヲ003016ヲ apple040ケ fl 08apple ヲ apple0ケ Central & Eastern European Real Estate Quality Awards
5 13ィコ fl ィエ ケ apple ィィ ヲ0 ィィapple6ヲ ヲ0 ィコ apple6ヲ00キ30909, 006ヲ008apple6ヲ ヲ0fl 006ヲ0 0401apple ヲ001apple07-0ケ ケ ヲ , 6ヲ0 036ヲ ク806 08apple076 7apple apple apple apple000ク803 apple000207apple apple6ヲ ク ケ ケ apple ヲ0. ィ ヲ0020ク903000ク800 apple000900apple6 50ク8 ィコ ヲ ケ000apple apple000107apple 6ヲ apple ヲ0 61,9 % ィC 06 $76,9 0302apple (006ヲ0 1 fl006 56ヲ0applefl ) 07 $124,5 0302apple 1 006ヲ0 (1 fl006 56ヲ0applefl ) apple006ヲ ク apple ヲ0 0505ィィ ヲ ,9% 2, 0ケ ク ヲ apple09fl ケ ケ ィB0ク apple0706 ( ケ ク キ300006ヲ ヲ ), 6ヲ0 036ヲ apple6ヲ apple apple apple07066ヲ0. ィィapple ヲ00ク90ク fl 0ケ ケ apple ヲ00ク90ク fl 04apple fl0キ30909, ヲ ,7% 3, ヲ ケ ク9 apple006ヲ ク803 apple6ヲ ヲ06 76ヲ ク ク ヲ fl. 05 fl006 56ヲ0apple00 ィC 00016ヲ0 apple apple6ヲ ク ク90ク apple ク8apple ヲ0 9% 4, 0ケ00307 fl apple090ケ apple ヲ apple apple6ヲ apple07036ヲ0 apple ケ apple ヲ0 11,8% fl03 026ヲ apple09fl ケ ケ ィB0ク apple0ク8, apple ヲ apple apple07066ヲ apple6ヲ ヲ ヲ ヲ0fl キ ヲ0fl 00fl apple apple00 08apple09fl apple6 76ヲ ヲ00キ30906 ィC 07 ィB ヲ ヲ apple ヲ0 10,8% ヲ ヲ0fl 036ヲ001apple070ケ ケ ヲ0fl ヲ00キ309fl 006ヲ0 08apple07-03fl apple ヲ00ク90ク fl apple ヲ00ク fl 02fl 08apple ヲ apple6ヲ000000ク キ ィヲ ィB apple6ヲ000000ク キ30906, ヲ ク apple 0ケ fl006 56ヲ0apple00 ィC fl apple ($29,1 0302apple 7 ) 0ク ヲ ヲ ク ヲ0 0800apple ヲ apple00 0ク8 040ク ク8, apple apple6ヲ000000ク キ apple ヲ0 060ケ ケ fl 01apple ィヲ ィB applefl030ク apple6ヲ ク キ ヲ0 fl006 56ヲ0apple00ィC fl apple ヲ $5,6 0302apple 8, 0ケ ヲ0 19,8% apple6ヲ ク apple6ヲ000000ク fl applefl030ク apple ヲ008apple6ヲ06 502fl ク9 08apple07030ク , 0307apple ク ク ヲ , 6ヲ0 036ヲ ク ク9 08apple07030ク ィエ apple6ヲ fl6 502fl ヲ apple ヲ ク apple6ヲ fl apple6ヲ ヲ ヲ0026ヲ ケ apple0907 6ヲ0 apple000207apple ク apple6ヲ0006ヲ apple6ヲ00309, ク fl apple ク キ ケ ィコ , apple ヲ0-6 56ヲ apple036ヲ00009fl, 05ィー02, apple, apple026ヲ000 0ク8, 000ク apple6 7, apple09036ヲ00009fl, 06apple6ヲ0000キ309fl. ィェ6ヲ キ36ヲ apple ク806 apple ィコ06 ィコ apple fl096ヲ apple6ヲ ヲ0020ク90300 Standard & Poor ッs BBBィC Fitch Ratings BBBィC Moody's Investors Service Baa3 ィィapple apple ィィapple6ヲ ヲ0 ィコ apple6ヲ apple6ヲ fl ヲ000066ヲ00309, 0703apple6ヲ ヲ0fl06fl ク ケ ヲ0apple ヲ0, 006ヲ ヲ00ケ ク ヲ0-020ク903000ク803 apple000900apple ケ ヲ ヲ00キ ヲ0 ィコ06, ヲ ヲ fl ク fl ヲ0apple07 000ク80309 apple ク ヲ ヲ00309 Fitch Ratings ( fl applefl ) 09 Standard&Poor's (31 fl006 56ヲ0applefl ) apple apple apple ヲ0 ィコ apple6ヲ00キ apple fl キ apple fl ィC. ィィapple ィコ キ apple ヲ0 03apple0003fl ク ヲ0apple07 000ク ヲ ヲ apple ケ ク キ apple ク9 0ケ ィヲ0809 6ヲ fl, 0ケ ィC ク キ300000ク8 006ヲ , apple apple apple0ク800016ヲ apple , 006ヲ0applefl apple6 56ヲ ク ヲ apple6ヲ ク9 6 50ク ケ ケ apple ヲ0 6 5 ィコ ィェ6ヲ キ36ヲ0 1. ィヲ ク ヲ001apple070ケ ケ ヲ0096ヲ ィコ apple6ヲ00キ30909 ィエ ケ ヲ00307apple0ク ィィ ィェ ク8 apple ヲ0 0505ィィ, % 9,0 5,0 4,7 7,3 6,9 6,3 ィ ヲ0020ク903000ク800 apple000900apple6 50ク8, $ 0302apple 28,0 36,6 46,3 76,9 124, apple ヲ , $ 0302apple 46,3 34,2 31,7 60,5 71,4 - ィィapple キ ク ヲ0, % ィィ 2,3 3,3 1,4 1,7 4,1 1,5 ィ fl0キ309fl, % 20,2 18,6 15,1 12,0 11,7 8,5 ィェ ク8 apple ヲ ク800 06apple ヲ0, % 17,4 8,7 2,6 12,5 10,8 9,5 ィェ ク8 apple ヲ0 apple006ヲ ク ヲ fl, % 9,3 6,8 9,9 14,9 9,0 9,0 ィ 006ヲ00ケ ヲ0 ィコィェ05 006ヲ キ ヲ0 138,0 253,0 353,0 569,0 614,0-1 ィ ケ : apple6ヲ ク ヲ00001 ィコ ィ ケ : apple ケ ケ apple6ヲ fl apple ィコ06 ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ0ク ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ
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7 ヲ0 ィ キ30909 ィ キ apple0ク apple0ケ ク8 036ヲ0apple6ヲ apple ヲ00206fl 6 50ク apple キ ヲ ヲ ク8apple6ヲ ク キ309fl0309 0ク80209 apple apple ヲ ヲ ケ06ヲ , 6 50ク ヲ000000ク806 08apple ク apple (08apple ヲ ク apple ヲ0apple07 000ク803 01apple ク ケ0apple ), 6ヲ0 036ヲ ク ケ apple0ク800016ヲ0 6 5 apple ヲ00300 apple ヲ ケ ヲ0, 07 ィB00036ヲ0, apple fl 08apple0709apple6ヲ00ケ キ ク ケ apple ヲ apple fl030006fl apple ク ク8, apple0ク800, ケ009 apple6ヲ009070ケ06ヲ0apple076 56ヲ0000ク ク ク ヲ ク9 apple apple0ク800016ヲ0 6ヲ0010キ30906, 6ヲ0 036ヲ ケ flapple apple ヲ00309 apple0ク800016ヲ ヲ00キ30906, 06036ヲ ヲ06 56ヲ apple6ヲ apple000009fl 6ヲ apple006ヲ ク キ ク803 6ヲ ヲ fl0ク apple0003fl ク fl0306fl 01 08apple ク9 0800apple6 50ク , apple00 08apple07fl fl ク90ク ク9apple09-090ケ apple03, 0703apple6ヲ ケ ヲ fl , 6ヲ0 036ヲ ヲ ク806-03apple apple ヲ0 07 ィB00036ヲ0 6ヲ , 006ヲ00307 fl0ク fl apple6ヲ , ク ク ケ ヲ apple ヲ ク ケ06ヲ apple0ク800016ヲ0. ィ 6ヲ0apple0708-6ヲ00ク90ク76ヲ0fl06fl 0703apple6ヲ ヲ ク キ ク (ィィィ 0604) apple09apple076 56ヲ0026ヲ ク9 6ヲ , fl キ ク ク apple6ヲ apple6ヲ apple fl 0703apple6ヲ ク9apple09 090ケ , ケ ヲ ク803 6ヲ apple6ヲ ク8 0ケ キ ヲ ヲ ケ ヲ ヲ00ク90ク ヲ00009fl 026ヲ fl 036ヲ ヲ ヲ apple076 5, apple00 08apple09fl ヲ0apple ク ケ06ヲ , ヲ00ク90ク apple apple ク8, 6ヲ0 036ヲ apple0907 apple00036ヲ00ク90ク ク ィB ク apple0ケ fl ヲ00009fl. ィ 6ヲ ヲ ヲ ヲ ヲ00キ ヲ0 016ヲ00ケ ク ィB ク8 08apple fl0ク apple0ケ ヲ ヲ0 50ィC100 6ヲ ク ヲ fl0ク apple0003fl 006ヲ00307 fl0306fl ヲ0086ヲ ィC13% 02fl 02040ケ ク ィB ィC14% 02fl 0307apple ク803 0キ apple ィB street-retail, apple6ヲ ク ク apple ク apple09 07apple ク ヲ ヲ fl ク apple ヲ fl apple00000キ ヲ apple6ヲ000090ケ apple ィB キ apple fl, fl apple apple070ケ apple ヲ apple07fl030007, 0ケ ク76ヲ0fl ヲ ケ ヲ0 2ィC3 08apple070キ ク ヲ0, ケ ヲ000030ク806 apple apple070キ ク ヲ ィー apple07fl ヲ apple apple6 50ク キ apple07 6ヲ apple ク803 0キ apple ヲ apple ク キ ク ヲ apple0907 apple apple ヲ apple , 6ヲ0 036ヲ apple036ヲ0apple ヲ ヲ0apple キ ク Eastern Property Holdings, ク90ク ヲ キ36ヲ0apple apple0800, ヲ00009fl Central Tower ヲ ィャ ィィ00apple ヲ00009fl Toko Towers ヲ ィ ヲ ヲ ィィ ケ0046ヲ00ク90306fl fl apple ヲ apple076 56ヲ00009fl 07 ィB apple0ケ ヲ fl0ク apple0003fl 06036ヲ fl00000ク803 01apple ヲ ヲ0apple0009apple040ク903-06fl ヲ0086ヲ LIBOR + 5ィC8%; 06apple apple fl ; ク90306fl ク8 6ヲ00307apple ヲ00キ ク apple07016ヲ ヲ0 apple0ク apple0ケ ( ヲ0apple ヲ , 00036ヲ apple6ヲ ィコ6ヲ ヲ ヲ ) 08apple apple ヲ ケ0apple apple6ヲ ヲ ィC 00076ヲ000066ヲ0 6ヲ , ヲ001020ク90ケ apple6 50ク apple ヲ apple076 56ヲ000090ク apple0ケ ィィapple ヲ apple076 56ヲ , 08apple ヲ00ク90ク ヲ06 56ヲ fl 0ケ0apple ク80ケ06ヲ ヲ0 6ヲ00ケ fl apple apple0ケ , ク fl000306fl ヲ000016ヲ00309 ィコ ヲ0096ヲ ヲ0006ヲ0, 08apple ヲ0fl ケ06ヲ apple apple ヲ apple ヲ00009fl ケ06ヲ ヲ0010キ apple ヲ ヲ ケ apple ヲ ヲ fl0ク fl apple ヲ000000ク apple ヲ apple076 56ヲ00009fl ク apple ヲ0, apple0ク ケ ケ ヲ ク apple ク90ク apple apple ク ヲ apple fl apple ヲ00009fl ヲ0 6 50ク ヲ ヲ0026ヲ fl ク90ク ク8036ヲ0, apple ヲ ヲ00ケ009006ヲ00ク903 08apple ヲ003apple096 56ヲ fl 01 08apple ヲ apple076 56ヲ000090ク apple apple apple0ケ ヲ apple ヲ ヲ , ヲ00ク90ク70000 apple apple6ヲ00キ3090ク apple ヲ apple6ヲ キ ク apple6ヲ001036ヲ003, ク ク apple6ヲ apple , 066 5fl096ヲ000000ク ヲ apple076 56ヲ apple ヲ0, fl ケ ク9 0ケ ヲ0 036ヲ ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ0ク ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ
8 13 ィヲ ヲ0fl ヲ0 ィヲ ヲ0fl P 0ク ク ク ク8 08apple ヲ fl ケ00100 apple6ヲ fl, ヲ ヲ ヲ0apple0000 0ク ヲ ク8, 6ヲ0 04apple ヲ0016ヲ ク ク ヲ00ケ009006ヲ ク8-046ヲ fl. ィコ6ヲ apple0ク800016ヲ ク ク ケ applefl ヲ ク ク , apple0ク apple fl ヲ apple0ク800016ヲ apple6ヲ ク8 006ヲ0 apple6ヲ ク apple0ク800016ヲ ヲ ヲ ィコ ィィapple006 50ク apple fl 006ヲ0 0608apple ヲ0 ィェ キ apple0ク800016ヲ0, 2004ィC ィャ キ30909 apple0ク800016ヲ キ apple6ヲ ヲ00キ30909, 0807fl apple0ク , 08apple apple apple6ヲ00キ apple apple6ヲ ヲ0apple ヲ00ケ06ヲ ヲ fl apple6ヲ apple fl066ヲ ク8. 050ク ヲ0 0603apple ク ク76ヲ ヲ ィエ00016ヲ003, 00016ヲ ヲ002 07apple apple006ヲ0fl 036ヲ00400fl03, 0ケ ヲ ヲ ヲ0apple03 6ヲ キ apple ヲ ヲ apple apple ヲ0apple016ヲ0, ケ06ヲ00ク90ク ヲ0apple07 000ク ヲ000 6ヲ0apple036ヲ003, 006ヲ0 0701apple6ヲ ク8 ( ヲ0apple apple0ク8026ヲ ク803). ィャ ケ ケ ヲ apple ヲ0apple ヲ0apple apple07 6ヲ ヲ fl fl ク ヲ00ケ009030ク ク803 08apple ヲ0apple apple fl ヲ0apple03 016ヲ00ケ ク apple apple ( ヲ003 ィィ III03, 00ィエapple ヲ008 ィィ026ヲ0096ヲ003), apple0ク ク8 096ヲ0 6ヲ ク ヲ000 6ヲ0apple030ク8 016ヲ00ケ ヲ apple ク ク803 0キ apple ィェ0ク ィィapple ヲ0 apple0ク ヲ0apple apple apple ヲ006066ヲ0 (6ヲ00300apple09016ヲ ヲ Swanke Hayden Connell Architects, Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM) 09 Hellmuth, Obata + Kassabaum, Inc (HOK)). ィィapple キ apple07 6ヲ ヲ apple6ヲ ヲ0 0ク ヲ キ apple6ヲ06 5 6ヲ0apple0000-6ヲ00307apple6ヲ0 (sale-lease back) ヲ00ク90ク fl 06036ヲ ヲ ヲ ヲ00キ ィヲ, ィェ6 500apple06016ヲ0fl-ィィapple000ケ ヲ0 0902ィヲ, ィェ6 500apple06016ヲ0fl-05apple ヲ apple , ィヲ, 05apple ヲ0-ィェ6ヲ06 76ヲ000016ヲ0 0902ィヲ, ィ 6ヲ apple000ケ apple ィ 6ヲ0086ヲ ヲ apple6ヲ apple07-ィ 6ヲ0086ヲ ヲ ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ0ク ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ 2005
9 ヲ0 ィヲ ヲ0fl ィコ ケ ヲ0 08apple ヲ ク apple ヲ0 apple0ク , apple apple07066ヲ apple00 apple ヲ apple076 56ヲ00009fl 09 08apple ヲ apple076 56ヲ00009fl, 0807fl apple ヲ ク apple ヲ apple076 56ヲ00009fl 09 08apple ヲ apple076 56ヲ00009fl. ィヲ 0ク apple apple apple apple apple04010キ309fl 08apple * ク ク ヲ ク8026ヲ0 096ヲ06 500apple ヲ ィェ6ヲ キ36ヲ ヲ ヲ00ケ009030ク ク ヲ00009fl, ク apple ィ 6ヲ , 6ヲ0 apple ヲ ヲ00009fl 02apple ヲ0fl ヲ0fl ク76ヲ0 00, ィ 6ヲ ィコ0505, ヲ ヲ0fl 0402.,. 41/ ィョ00appleapple09 ィェ6ヲ0040ケ1apple03, ィィapple ク909006ヲ0fl 0402., I03, 03. ィヲapple 0ク800016ヲ , apple ヲ0fl 006ヲ0.,. 7, 0603apple ヲ00003apple09 ィィ6ヲ0apple0103, ィィ6ヲ ヲ , 19, ヲ00400fl 006ヲ0 046ヲ0 00apple , 09 6ヲ A, ヲ , 01apple6ヲ apple ヲ0fl 006ヲ ヲ , 056ヲ0apple046ヲ ,. 5, 0603apple キ apple 006ヲ0 03apple キ300, 1-fl 03apple ヲ0fl 0402.,. 29/ キ apple 00020ケ1apple070807apple0303, 4-fl ヲ0apple036ヲ0,. 66ヲ キ apple 00ィィ6ヲ キ , ケ apple., キ apple 00ィ , 3-fl ィケ fl,. 18ィC ヲ0fl 0402., apple07086ヲ0 076ヲ , apple., ィ 6ヲ00キ300086ヲ , キ apple 00ィィ6ヲ , ィィ6ヲ ヲ0fl 0402., ィェ6ヲ キ36ヲ ヲ ヲ00ケ009030ク800 08apple ク8, 08026ヲ00009apple ク ケ ヲ0036ヲ00キ3090ク ィ 6ヲ , 6ヲ0 apple ヲ ヲ00009fl 02apple ヲ0fl ヲ0fl ク76ヲ0 00, ヲ0apple apple0ク8026ヲ ク803, 09 6ヲ00009fl 02, 05, 05, D, 01apple0ク8026ヲ ヲ0fl 0402., apple07apple6ヲ ィィ6ヲ0apple0103, 2-fl 070ケ000apple00 00, 056ヲ ケ ヲ0fl 0402., ヲ ヲ002 ィィ026ヲ0096ヲ ヲ , apple., キ apple 00ィィ ヲ0apple0603, 0500apple ヲ0fl 0402., ヲ ヲ apple03, ケ ヲ0fl 0402., ヲ003 ィィ III03, 076ヲ ヲ , ヲ00400fl 006ヲ0 046ヲ0 00apple , 09 6ヲ , ヲ , 01apple6ヲ apple ヲ0fl 006ヲ apple6ヲ002 ィェ6ヲ0040ケ1apple03, ィヲ6 50ケ ヲ0fl 006ヲ0., apple6ヲ apple, ヲ0036ヲ0apple090003, ィヲ0900apple ヲ0fl 006ヲ0., ヲ0 ィ 006ヲ , 1-fl 070ケ000apple00 00, ィ 006ヲ ヲ , ヲ0apple0ク apple03, ィケ ヲ ヲ0fl 006ヲ0.,. 4/ * ィ ヲ ケ ィC 6ヲ0apple ヲ0fl ヲ0fl ク76ヲ0 00. ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ0ク ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ
10 13 ィヲ ヲ0fl ヲ ィC fl ク ヲ006066ヲ ク ィB apple ヲ ヲ06 502fl026ヲ % (2001) 07 33% (2002), ヲ ヲ ヲ0 50%. 0503apple apple6ヲ ヲ008apple ヲ000090ク9 Colliers International 036ヲ ヲ0: 05096ヲ06 7apple6ヲ003036ヲ fl ヲ006066ヲ ク ィB apple ヲ ヲ ヲ0 35% ( ィBfl0600fl000306fl , 0ケ00307 applefl 08apple ク ヲ06 500apple apple0701). 46% ク apple ク ク ク apple apple6ヲ apple6ヲ , 0ケ ヲ0 28% apple6ヲ ク apple ク ィ 6ヲ008apple07060ク8 6ヲ0apple0000 6ヲ00307apple apple6ヲ ク ヲ0 23% 9% 68% ヲ0fl fl apple076 5, ヲ06 500apple apple ク ク ヲ ィヲ 006ヲ00107, ヲ キ ヲ003, 0ケ06ヲ apple ( ) ク apple ヲ apple apple apple ヲ ク ク fl apple6ヲ000fl000306fl 006ヲ0 6 50ク apple apple apple ケ ケ ヲ ク ク ク76ヲ * (net absorption) ヲ apple ( fl ヲ000000ク ヲ0096ヲ ヲ00206fl apple ヲ ). ィヲ 0ク ィB ヲ0apple0000 0ク apple07 6ヲ ク ク ヲ ヲ apple6ヲ ヲ0apple0000 0ク apple07 6ヲ00809, ケ ィヲ ィB % 7% 79% 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 02apple0000 6ヲ0 ィィapple07 6ヲ0086ヲ ケ apple07 6ヲ ク ィB ヲ001020ク90ケ ク apple6ヲ ヲ % ( apple6ヲ ク % ), apple6ヲ ヲ ケ apple07 6ヲ ク ィB ヲ001020ク90ケ ク % % apple ィェィェ01 05apple apple6ヲ ク8 016ヲ apple , 0608apple ヲ ク ク fl キ apple09apple076 56ヲ キ apple6ヲ ケ06ヲ apple07 6ヲ0: 6ヲ0006ヲ ケ ヲ00キ , 08apple090300apple % 6ヲ0apple0000-6ヲ00307apple ク ヲ00ク ク apple ヲ apple6ヲ apple6ヲ ヲ0; 0702fl 6ヲ0apple0000 6ヲ00307apple076 5, apple6ヲ ヲ003apple096 56ヲ00ク90ク apple6ヲ apple ヲ ヲ0 07 ィェapple apple6ヲ apple キ36ヲ0, 6 50ク8apple ヲ apple6ヲ ク apple00 0ク8 040ク ヲ ヲ ヲ0 23% ( apple6ヲ ク % ) ケ ク ヲ06 502fl % ケ ヲ , fl 096ヲ008apple ヲ ヲ ヲ06 502fl % ヲ ヲ008apple ヲ0090ク86 56ヲ00003, 0ケ ヲ0 apple0ク ヲ0apple0000 0ク8 006ヲ apple ヲ000000ク80309 fl6 502fl0ク90306fl ク ク76ヲ0 000ク , 6ヲ ク ク803 08apple ケ fl03 006ヲ ヲ008apple6ヲ ヲ000030ク80309 fl6 502fl0ク90306fl ク76ヲ0 09, 08apple00 026ヲ06 76ヲ000030ク ヲ0apple ヲ ヲ $ $ ヲ ケ000036ヲ , ク ク fl 01026ヲ ヲ0 apple0ク apple07 6ヲ ヲ apple ヲ0000ク ク76ヲ ヲ006066ヲ0 05 (0キ ヲ0086ヲ $ ヲ ) apple6ヲ apple ヲ0016ヲ ク ク76ヲ ヲ ヲ0applefl 6 50ク apple ク9 0608apple07066ヲ0 006ヲ ク ク fl, 6ヲ ヲ apple ヲ0 0603apple ヲ apple ク ヲ0096ヲ ヲ0016ヲ ク ク76ヲ キ apple0ク ク ク ヲ fl ヲ fl 006ヲ0 04apple ,6%, ヲ06 502flfl 6 5 apple6ヲ009000ク fl0キ30ク ,5% 07 5,1% ヲ00009fl ヲ006066ヲ ,5% 07 10% ヲ00009fl ヲ006066ヲ0 05. * ィィ ク apple6ヲ0086ヲ ク ケ ヲ0 096ヲ000fl030ク ク76ヲ ヲ0 apple0ク ケ apple apple0907 6ヲ0 6 5apple (016ヲ001 08apple6ヲ , 0708apple fl000306fl 006ヲ ). ィィ ク apple6ヲ006060ケ009030ク86 56ヲ fl 016ヲ001 apple6ヲ キ36ヲ ケ ヲ0 096ヲ000fl030ク ク ヲ キ ヲ0 006ヲ00ケ06ヲ ヲ0. 9 ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ0ク ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ 2005
11 ヲ0 ィヲ ヲ0fl ヲ06 7apple6ヲ003036ヲ0 2(6ヲ0) ィ 6ヲ008apple07060ク8 006ヲ0 6ヲ0apple (apple6ヲ apple ク ) 05096ヲ06 7apple6ヲ003036ヲ0 3(6ヲ0) ィ 6ヲ008apple07060ク8 006ヲ (apple6ヲ apple ク ) 13% 13% 19% 61% 3% 36% 15% 40% ィC ィC ィC ィヲ ィC ィC ィヲ ヲ06 7apple6ヲ003036ヲ0 2( ) 05096ヲ06 7apple6ヲ003036ヲ0 3( ) ィ 6ヲ008apple07060ク8 006ヲ0 6ヲ0apple ( 0ク ) ィ 6ヲ008apple07060ク8 006ヲ (0キ300006ヲ0) 57% 2% 11% 19% 30% 58% 23% 0507 $350 $351ィC450 $451ィC550 ィヲ03 $ $2 000 $2 001ィC2 500 ィヲ03 $ apple6ヲ % ィャapple ヲ0016ヲ ク ク ヲ fl0ク apple0003fl ヲ00009fl ヲ ク ク90ク ヲ ヲ0apple0000 0ク8: 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% IV , 2000 I , ヲ ヲ0apple0000 0ク8, 0キ300000ク8 08apple07 6ヲ00809 II , 2001 III , 2001 IV , 2001 I , 2002 II , 2002 III , 2002 IV , 2002 I , 2003 II , 2003 III , 2003 IV , 2003 I , 2004 II , ク ヲ apple076 56ヲ ヲ00ケ (3,5%) ク ヲ ク ヲ ヲ0apple0000 0ク8 006ヲ ク ク fl 01026ヲ006066ヲ ヲ006066ヲ ヲ fl 0104apple066ヲ ヲ0apple6ヲ0 0807fl6 502fl0ク90306fl 0800apple6 50ク ク ィB ク8, 6ヲ0apple ク ヲ apple0ク803 08apple fl0306fl apple07. $/ /6 707 ( ケ apple6ヲ ク8) ァャァンァムァ罘 B ァャァンァムァ罘 A III , 2004 IV , ィェ6ヲ キ36ヲ ヲ ヲ0apple0000 0ク8 02fl 09 6ヲ ヲ ヲ ヲ00009fl 05apple apple ヲ0apple ク ヲ ヲ ヲ0 6ヲ0apple0000 0ク8 08apple fl ( ケ000036ヲ , ケ ), $/ /6 707 A 550ィC ィC ィC ィィ 2006 ィィ 01026ヲ ヲ apple6ヲ ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ0ク ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ
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26 13 ィヲ ヲ0fl ィィ000300apple 04apple ク ヲ003 ( ), ヲ ヲ0 apple0ク ヲ0 020ク9 6ヲ fl ヲ ク803 08apple ク803 0キ apple6ヲ ヲ ヲ0fl 0ケ06ヲ ヲ0fl apple fl 006ヲ ク fl ク76ヲ0 000ク9 50ィC ィィapple ヲ00009apple fl ク ク76ヲ0 0006, % ィC ク76ヲ ヲ006066ヲ ヲ0 apple0ク apple6ヲ fl ヲ00キ309fl ヲ0026ヲ000066ヲ0 0608apple07066ヲ apple fl, 0800apple00006ヲ0060ク80ク fl apple0ク800016ヲ ク ク ヲ apple0003fl apple fl. ィヲ0809 6ヲ fl ヲ00ケ ク806 apple ヲ ヲ0apple0000 0ク apple ヲ003 5ィC8% (06 040ケ fl0キ fl 0104apple ヲ0020ク903, apple006ヲ ク806 04apple ヲ0apple ク ヲ ヲ fl), 096ヲ fl ク803 0キ apple ヲ fl 6 50ク ィィ07fl キ apple ヲ キ ヲ ク ケ000036ヲ apple , ケ , apple6ヲ ヲ キ309fl0309 (00ィィ026ヲ , , 3803, キ30ク800ィB03, River House). 01apple ク ク fl ( ) ヲ fl apple ヲ0000ク8 006ヲ0 apple0ク , 08apple fl 036ヲ apple apple07066ヲ0 006ヲ0 08apple0907 apple ク ク76ヲ ィェ00appleapple090307apple096ヲ ク apple ヲ キ apple076 5 ( ケ ヲ006066ヲ0 02, 05+) apple090ケ キ apple6ヲ apple07 6ヲ ク apple0309apple040ク90ク fl ク800 apple6ヲ ク8. ィェ6ヲ キ36ヲ キ apple0ク8, 08026ヲ00009apple ク apple0ク803090ク ヲ ヲ apple ヲ00606 ィヲ ヲ0fl 02apple0000 6ヲ0, ク76ヲ0 00 $/ ( ) apple006ヲ0fl キ36ヲ003 (II-fl 070ケ000apple00 00) ク , ヲ0-076ヲ ィィ0003apple076 7apple6ヲ ヲ0fl 006ヲ0., ヲ00307apple03 ィョ6ヲ , ヲ00307apple03 056ヲ ヲ0fl 0402., ィィ026ヲ apple06016ヲ0fl, apple キ apple03 ィヲapple apple ヲ0fl 0402.,. 4 02ィC (ィヲ 0ク76ヲ0fl) ヲ00307apple03 ィョ6ヲ0086ヲ ヲ0, apple ヲ0fl 006ヲ0., ヲ000036ヲ , apple6ヲ00203 (II-fl 070ケ000apple00 00) 046ヲ0. ィヲ ヲ0006ヲ0026ヲ0, River-House (II-fl 070ケ000apple00 00) 02016ヲ ヲ0 ィィ6ヲ ヲ , ィー00apple ィィapple ヲ00ケ00001, ィェ ヲ , ィC ヲ apple-03, ィー086ヲ00200apple006ヲ0fl, 5403 ィー086ヲ00200apple006ヲ0fl, ィィapple07 6ヲ0086ヲ ィC1 800 ィC fl 05ィヲ,. 76ヲ ィィapple07 6ヲ0086ヲ ィC1 760 ィC fl apple., ィィapple07 6ヲ0086ヲ ィヲ03ィ ィヲィコ ィコ0ク ィ 05ィ 02ィヲ05ィェィ 2005
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37 RUSSIA R EAL ESTATE REVIEW ENGLISH VERSION TABLE OF CONTENTS Russia Economic Overview Moscow Investment Office Sector Warehouse Sector Retail Sector St. Petersburg Investment Office Sector Warehouse Sector Retail Sector Residential Sector
38 13In January, 2005 Colliers International has been awarded the Central & Eastern European Real Estate Agency of the Year as determined by the jury of the Central & Eastern European Real Estate Quality Awards
39 13Russia Economic Overview I n 2004, Russia ッs economic growth was fostered by the government ッs macroeconomic policy. It was characterized primarily by economic stabilization and further structural reforms. By the end of 2004, Russia ッs foreign reserves at the Central Bank reached an all-time high of $124.5 bln 1, compared to $76.9 bln in In 2004, the country ッs GDP grew by 6.9% 2, while the federal budget surplus made 4.1%. The growth of GDP was driven by two main factors ィC favorable foreign market conditions (including high oil prices) and the increasing domestic demand. In 2004, inflation fell to 11.7% 3 compared with 12% in Continued economic growth in 2004 led to a 9% 4 rise of real disposable income, which, in its turn, resulted in the rise of consumer spending and retail turnover (11.8%) 5. In 2004, positive world economic trends and higher demand levels (both locally and abroad) pushed the level of fixed capital investment up a further 10.8% 6. Macroeconomic stability over the past seven years and continuing economic growth encouraged the inflow of foreign investments. In 2004, their total volume in non-financial sector reached $29.1 bln 7 ィC the highest level since As in the previous years, the growth of credits helped to secure more foreign investments. From January to September 2004, foreign direct investments ィC primarily in the oil, trade, and food sectors ィC grew by 19.8% (compared with 2003) and amounted to $5.6 bln 8. Table 2. Sovereign rating of RF Rating on Russia ッs Agency foreign currency bonds BBBィC Standard & Poor ッs BBBィC Fitch Ratings Baa3 Moody's Investors Service During the period of Russian economic reforms these sectors remained the most attractive for foreign investors. In 2004, the pool of active foreign investors did not change and included such countries as Germany, the USA, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Great Britain and France. International rating agencies Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's upgraded Russia's long-term sovereign rating from BB+ to BBB-. This decision was brought about by several factors: the consumer boom, high oil prices (oil has the largest share in the Russian commodity exports), foreign currency reserves exceeding external debt and a swiftly growing stabilization fund. Russia ッs investment grade rating awarded by three international rating agencies also reflects recent crucial improvements in the country ッs debt level and external liquidity. It is expected that this will ensure further inflow of investments. High oil prices, external and domestic growth in demand along with the federal budget stability and prudent fiscal policy will ensure a relatively high growth rate of the Russian economy in 2005ィC2006. Table 1. Major macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation Economic indicators F GDP growth (YOY), % Foreign reserves, $ bln Current account, $ bln Federal budget balance, % of GDP CPI inflation, % Investment in fixed assets (YOY), % Real disposable income (YOY), % RTS stock market index at the end of the year Source: Central Bank of Russia 2-8 Source: Ministry of Economy Development and Trade of Russia RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
40 13MOSCOW
41 13Moscow Investment Investment I n the year 2004 the commercial real estate market of Moscow was characterized by a high level of investment activity. It exhibited the trend towards greater sophistication due to the entry of new players (professional investors and lending institutions), as well as towards higher efficiency in terms of the number, volume, complexity and transparency of investment deals. The ranks of Commercial Real Estate investors were joined by private Russian pension funds that, as a result of the dismal performance of the country ッs stock market and the generally negative outlook for bond investments, are increasingly looking at alternative asset classes. Several funds are poised to make the first acquisitions and, as the legal and technical aspects of their investment mandate are worked out and their assets under management rise rapidly, they will become formidable players. The nascent Russian Real Estate Investment Fund (REIF) industry was very active, although the bulk of investment deals were of a small size and were often done to probe the legal, technical and tax status of these collective investment vehicles. Among other noteworthy developments was the activity of Chinese investors ィC primarily SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) ィC that are entering development projects, as well as acquiring properties for their own use. Capitalization rates for quality income-producing assets fell by 50ィC100 basis points last year and are presently in the range of 12ィC13% for prime offices and 13ィC14% for shopping centers and high street retail. We expect further compression of current yields due to increased competition for a limited stock of investment grade assets, although in the mid-term they are unlikely to fall by more than 2ィC3 percentage points, in part due to rising interest rates in the United States. It seems likely that year 2005 will be marked by the first investment sales of shopping centers Among the most notable investment deals of the past year were the acquisition of Berlin House mixed-use complex by the Swiss stock exchange-listed Eastern Property Holdings, which also took a stake in the Mosmart hypermarket chain, LUKOIL Perm ッs purchase of the Central Tower office project and IFD Capital ッs acquisition of Toko Towers. Debt financing in the form of permanent loans is readily available at increasingly favorable terms. Interest rates are in the range of LIBOR + 5ィC8%, loan terms can reach 12 years with flexible amortization schemes. Incumbents in the refinancing business (International Moscow Bank, Societe Generale and Raiffeisen Bank) were joined by the Baltic countries ッ largest financial institution ィC Hansa Bank, which marked its entry by closing its first real estate financing deal in Moscow. Project finance remains a daunting task for commercial real estate developers and so far has been realized by a handful of Russian and Kazakh banks, most frequently in the form of mezzanine. Never-the-less, a growing number of Russian banks are turning their backs on the increasingly risky residential development projects, which for a number of years provided them with mouthwatering returns, and, having no competitive advantage in the refinancing business, are testing the waters of project financing for commercial projects. Furthermore, the latest amendment to Russian law, which provides for the registration of investment contracts rights as collateral, is expected to spur the development of project financing by dramatically raising the security of such deals for lenders. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
42 13Office Sector Moscow Office Sector T he Moscow office market is close to equilibrium with its stable rental rates and gradually rising vacancy indicators. In 2004, a number of significant changes took place in the Moscow office market, which will produce a considerable impact on its development in Diagram 1 Real estate market cycle Moscow (SOM) and Hellmuth, Obata + Kassabaum, Inc (HOK)). Sale-and-lease-back transactions. Decreasing capitalization rates. Increasing number of professional investors entering the market, increasing demand for refinancing and project financing, appearance of more attractive refinancing and project financing terms. Moscow districts Recovery Expansion Contraction Recession Office Market Trends in 2004ィC2005 Further market decentralization, development of submarkets, additional redevelopment of industrial zones and construction of techno-parks. Increasing number of development projects in the midtown districts of Moscow. Beginning of construction by ENKA, Capital Group and Northern Tower within the framework of the major Moscow City project. Development of the first international business park in the outskirts of Moscow (Krylatsky Hills Business Park). Increasing number of pre-lease and pre-sale deals as new international high quality development projects enter the market. Launch of new landmark office development projects (Ducat Place III, Hermitage Plaza). These buildings will set up new quality standards for international office projects in Moscow. Cooperation between developers and leading architects (American companies Swanke Hayden Connell Architects, Skidmore, Owings & Merrill Sq. m., k CBD, Tverskaya-Prechistenka 0 New construction, 2004 CBD, Tverskaya-Sretenka CBD, Sretenka-Taganka CBD, Zamoskvorechye North North-East East South-East South South-West West North-West Class 02 Diagram 2 Class RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
43 13Moscow Office Sector Supply In 2004, the construction and refurbishment of approximately 700,000 sq. m. of Class A and B office space was completed. Whereas between 1999 and 2002, Class A offices accounted for 15ィC33% of new construction, in 2003 they made up 50% of the added stock. In 2004, the proportion of newly constructed Class A office space decreased to 35% (this is due to later than expected delivery dates for some major projects scheduled in 2004). As much as 46% of all office space commissioned in 2004 was in the Central Business District, which is 28% lower than the previous year. Table 1. Major office buildings completed in 2004 Property Class Office rentable area, sq. m. Russian Railways Headquarters, 41/43 B. Spasskaya Ul ,000 Cherry Tower, 56 Profsoyuznaya Ul ,000 Legion-I, 40 B. Ordynka Ul ,000 7 Derbenevskaya Nab., Bldg ,000 Country Park, 19 Panfilova Ul., Khimki 05 16,800 Naberezhnaya Tower, Building A, Moscow City, Krasnopresnenskaya Nab Novodanilovsky Dom, 5 Varshavskoe Sh., Bldg ,400 29/22 1st Brestskaya Ul ,375 Aeroport Business Center, 6a 4th Ul. 8 Marta 05 11,200 Paveletsky Business Center, 6d 1st Kozhevnichesky Per ,300 Golden Age Business Center, 18ィC20 3rd Yamskogo Polya Ul. 05 8,500 16ィC18 Novoslobodskaya Ul. 02 8,383 Europa House, 11 Kolokolnikov Per. 02 7, Zatsepa Ul. 05 7,829 Pavlovsky Business Center, 7 Pavlovskaya Ul. 05 7,543 Table 2. Major office projects planned for completion in 2005 Property Class Office rentable area, sq. m. Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Buildings 02, 05, 05, D), 19 Krylatskaya Ul ,000 Avrora Business Park (Phase II), 82 Sadovnicheskaya Ul ,000 Capital Plaza on Lesnoy, 18 1st Lesnoy Per ,000 Pollars Business Center, 11 Derbenevskaya Ul ,830 Stanislavsky Center, 21 Mal. Kommunisticheskaya Ul ,838 Ducat Place III, 6 Gasheka Ul ,000 Naberezhnaya Tower, Building B, Moscow City, Krasnopresnenskaya Nab ,200 Central Tower, 22 Ovchinnikovskaya Nab ,912 9 Strastnoy Blvd ,600 Aquamarine, 28 Ozerkovskaya Nab ,300 Znamenka Complex (Phase I), 3ィC7 Znamenka Ul ,107 Golutvinsky Stary Dvor, 4/4 Yakimanskaya Nab. 02 9,000 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
44 13Office Sector Moscow According to developers ッ plans, in 2005 approximately 1,100,000 sq. m. of constructed or refurbished Class A and B office space will be completed. However, we consider that a number of office development projects (representing about 200,000 sq. m.) will not be completed on time. Demand The demand for Class A and B office space remains high. In 2004, the average net absorption * rate was approximately 500,000 sq. m. (for the past years this indicator varied from 300,000 to 500,000 sq. m.). In 2004, total take-up of Class A and B office space amounted to 670,000 sq. m. Diagram 3 Lease vs. Sale, 2004 Transactions Area taken-up 93% 7% 79% 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Lease Sale In 2004, the number of sale deals slightly decreased and amounted to 7% of all transactions (compared to 10% in 2003). The proportion of sales in the total volume of transactions also decreased (from 30% in 2003 to 21% in 2004). city center, but within the Third Ring Road, increased from 15% in 2003 to 23% in In the leasing segment of the office market the most common requirement was for 250ィC600 sq. m. offices at rates varying from $500 to 600 per sq. m./year (including operating expenses, net of VAT), i.e. for Class A and B1 office premises. 12% of client requests concerned office space purchase. In the acquisition market, the greatest requirement was for Class B office space of over 2,000 sq. m. at the price of $2,500 per sq. m. and higher. Vacancies In 2004, strong demand for Class A and B office space was covered by a high volume of new construction. Consequently, the weighted average vacancy rate for Class A and B office premises remained stable ィC at 6.6%. It shifted from 4.5% to 5.1% for Class A buildings and from 7.5% to 10% for Class B. Tenant requests, lease (size) 13% 13% 19% Chart 2(a) Colliers International client inquiries showed, that in 2004, the demand for office space was still concentrated in the Central District (69% were looking for offices in the Central Business District). The share of clients considering locations outside the 15% Less than 150 sq. m. 151ィC400 sq. m. 401ィC800 sq. m. 40% Greater than 1,501 sq. m. 801ィC1,500 sq. m. Chart1 Chart 2(b) Tenant requests, location Tenant requests, lease (rental rate) 23% 9% 68% 57% 2% 11% 30% CBD Third Ring Road Other locations Less than $350 $351ィC450 $451ィC550 Greater than $550 * Net absorption represents the change in the occupied stock in a market during the survey period (normally a year) or the amount of inventory or office units that become occupied during a specified period in a given market. The mothballed stock, i.e. floor space held vacant and not offered for rent, usually pending redevelopment or refurbishment, is excluded. 48 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
45 13Moscow Office Sector Chart 3(a) Chart 3(b) Tenant requests, sale (size) Tenant requests, sale (price) 61% 3% 36% 19% 58% 23% 400ィC1,000 sq. m. 1,001ィC2,500 sq. m. Greater than 2,501 sq. m. Less than $2,000 $2,001ィC2,500 Grater than $2,501 Diagram 4 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 4q., q., 2001 Average vacancy rates Rental Rates/Sale Prices In 2004, rental rates for Class A and B offices slightly increased (3.5%) in nominal terms. Rental rates for some premises are denominated in Euro. Table 3 shows current rental rates for Class A and B office buildings. Sale prices vary widely depending on the location, physical condition, and commercial characteristics (accessibility, availability of parking, telephone lines, etc.) of the property. Acquisition of smaller office buildings is substantially more expensive than that of large office buildings or parts of such premises. 2q., q., q., q., q., q., q., q., q., q., q., q., q., q., q., 2004 $/sq. m./year Class B Class A Table 3. Rental rates Class Asking rental rates, $/sq. m./year, net of VAT, incl. operating expenses A 550ィC ィC ィC450 Table 4. Asking sale prices Class Asking sale prices, $/sq. m. A 3,500ィC5,000, mansions up to 6, ,500ィC3,500, mansions up to 4,500 Prices for Class A and B office space are on the rise, driven by its shortage and increasing recognition of real estate as an investment asset with capitalization rates falling by 3 to 4 percentage points over the last three years. Average rental rates (incl. operating expenses, net of VAT) F 2006 F Class 02 Class 05 Diagram 5 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
46 13Office Sector Moscow Table 5. Significant transactions, 2004 Tenant / Buyer Property Class Rentable area, sq. m. SIBUR 16 Krzhizhanovskogo Ul., Bldg / acquisition 16,197 SIBUR 16 Krzhizhanovskogo Ul., Bldg / acquisition 5,530 VIP-Bank 12/2ィC3 Bol. Gruzinskaya Ul. 05 / acquisition 4,877 Bank of Moscow 4 Brodnikov Per. 05 / acquisition 4,444 Russia Insurance Company 3/3 Prospect Mira B / acquisition 4,269 Zarubezhneftegaz Novodanilovsky Dom 05 / acquisition 2,400 Industrial Saving Bank Aeroport Business Center 05 / acquisition 2,020 Intel Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Building D) 02 10,863 MTS 7 Derbenevskaya Nab., Bldg. 22 B 7,940 BAT Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Building B) 02 7,009 Severstaltrans Central Tower, 22 Ovchinnikovskaya Nab. 02 6,500 Gazprombank 16 Raushskaya Nab. 02 6,400 IBM Naberezhnaya Tower (Building A) A 6,386 Microsoft Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Building A) 02 6,059 SUEK 7 Derbenevskaya Nab., Bldg. 22 B 6,000 ING Bank Amber Plaza 02 5,443 TNK-BP Management 10 Arbat Ul. A 5,130 Renaissance Insurance 7 Derbenevskaya Nab., Bldg. 22 B 5,080 Non-profit partnership 02ィェS World Trade Center II 02 4,524 HFS Vlakra Business Center 05 4,000 Emerson 10 Letnikovskaya Ul., Bldg. 2 B 3,528 Exxon Mobil 31 Novinsky Blvd. 02 3,428 CSFB Romanov Dvor II 02 3,347 Sun Interbrew Krylatsky Hills Business Park (Building A) 02 3,300 Siemens Management Infrastructure 11/10 Letnikovskaya Ul. 05 3,038 Regus Avrora Business Park (Phase II) 02 2,833 Aton Investments 17 Chistoprudny Blvd., Bldg ,812 GlavBukh Publishing House 23 Bol. Novodmitrovskaya Ul. B 2, ィC2006 Forecast New construction and refurbishment 6,0 Total stock and new construction Diagram 6 New construction and refurbishment of an estimated 900,000 sq. m. for 2005 and 1,300,000 sq. m. for Demand In 2005ィC2006, the demand for international quality standard office space is expected to remain high or will even slightly increase, with a net absorption rate Mln sq. m. 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0, F 2006 F Total stock (beginning of the year) New construction 50 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
47 13Moscow Office Sector at 600,000ィC700,000 sq. m. per year. The demand for lease of 5,000+ sq. m. offices is expected to increase. Vacancies In 2005ィC2006, the high level of new construction will boost the average weighted vacancy rate for Class A and B offices (the vacancy rate will average 6ィC12% depending on the property class). Avrora Business Park (Phase II) Rental rates Rental rates for Class A and B offices will remain at their current levels. The rates will continue to vary by floor, the higher floors being more expensive because they provide a better view. Capital Plaza on Lesnoy RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
48 13Warehouse Sector Moscow Warehouse Sector W arehousing remains the youngest and the fastest growing sector of the Russian commercial real estate market. Positive trends in the Russian economy, soaring demand for international standard warehouse facilities, along with the high rental rates (as compared to warehouse markets in most European countries) make warehouse development in Russia very attractive to both local and international industrial developers. Diagram 7 Industrial Park). Up to 70% of all international quality warehouse space, delivered to the market in 2004, was developed and then occupied by 3PL logistic operators ィC National Logistic Company, Belaya Dacha Market, FM Logistic and a few others. Approximately 150,000ィC300,000 sq. m. of international standard warehouse space is scheduled for delivery in 2005 as speculative development. Demand Mln people; mln sq. m International quality warehouse supply Los Angeles Frankfurt Hong Kong London Moscow City & suburbia population (mln people) Quality warehouse supply (mln sq. m.) Sq. m. per 1,000 people Sq. m. per 1,000 people The demand for international standard warehouse space remains high and mostly comes from: 3PL; local and international retailers; manufacturers and importers of FMCG and foods; manufacturers and importers of IT, home appliances, construction materials and other similar goods. Supply The total supply of quality warehouse facilities in Moscow and the Moscow Region is estimated at approximately 1,000,000 sq. m., whereof 450,000 sq. m. meets the international quality standards. About 230,000 sq. m. of the international quality warehouse space was delivered in 2004, 80% of which were built for owner occupation. The 2004 warehouse market development trends will continue and shape the market dynamics in 2005 and onwards. A number of large development projects (e. g., Logopark of Belaya Dacha and Bouygues), scheduled for 2004, were delayed as a result of the difficulties the developers had faced. Industrial parks concept becomes popular (e. g., such projects as Istra Technopark of Kulon and Domodedovo We do not expect any decrease in demand for international quality warehouse facilities in the next several years. At present, the combined (immediate and latent) demand for quality warehouse space is estimated at 500,000ィC1,000,000 sq. m. Rental Rates In 2004, the rental rates for international quality warehouse facilities remained unchanged, ranging from $140 to $160 per sq. m. per annum (net of VAT). Rents for lower quality premises were between $90 and $120 per sq. m. per annum (net of VAT) including service charges, which cover property management, security, technical maintenance but do not include utilities. If all warehouse development projects announced for 2005ィC2006 are delivered, rental rents are expected to slightly decrease. 52 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
49 13Moscow Warehouse Sector Land The development of warehouse properties is mainly held back by the non-transparency of land market and by the acute shortage of land suitable for industrial development. However, Federal Government tries to ease the land legislation and thus to ensure gradual land market maturation. In accordance with Chapter 146 of the new Tax Code, starting from January 1, 2005 VAT will not be applicable to land sales transactions in the secondary market, which might have a positive effect on the warehousing market. Intercomplex Warehouse Park, Klimovsk, Moscow Region In 2004, industrial land prices increased by 10ィC30% and were in the range of $250,000ィC$350,000 per hectare (net of VAT). These prices do not include any improvements which may run up to 60% of the land price. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
50 13Retail Sector Moscow Retail Sector T hroughout 2004, Russia ッs major macroeconomic indicators continued to grow. This trend, which has persisted since 1999, provided a favorable market environment for the development of all segments of the commercial real estate market. According to the Moscow Municipal Committee for Statistics (Mosgorkomstat) consumer goods sales through all distribution channels (in comparable prices) grew by approximately 8.4% in Also in 2004, the yearon-year catering turnover increased (in comparable prices) by 6.1%. Table 6 Major macroeconomic indicators * Retail sales, $ mln 42,124.0 percentage change, year-on-year Nominal per capita income (end of 2004), $ percentage change, year-on-year Real per capita income percentage change, year-on-year Shopping Centers. Supply and Demand In 2004, the shopping center sector of the Moscow commercial real estate market developed at a high pace. The growth rate was sustained both in the number of shopping centers and total space. This shows the propensity of retail property developments to attract investment. Diagram 8 Total space, sq. m. k Dynamics of shopping centers space ** F Dynamics of high-quality retail space Total stock of high-quality retail space Diagram 8 shows the dynamics of retail space between 1998 and 2004, and the forecast for In 1999, the decline in construction was caused by the 1998 financial crisis. After 1999, intensive growth was observed (reaching its peak in 2002 with the appearance of several large properties, including MEGA-I and Atrium). In the coming year we expect that shopping center space will grow considerably. According to some sources, it will reach approximately 800,000 sq. m. (or about 450,000 sq. m. of gross leasable area). In 2004, retail space grew substantially compared to the previous year (see Diagram 8). By the end of 2004, the total area of operating shopping centers in Moscow reached 2.5 mln sq. m. with 11 large retail facilities that were introduced to the market (see Table 7). Space distribution in malls (see Table 8) is contingent on the requirements of the shopping center concept. However, the tenant mix is influenced by the demand of potential tenants. The analysis of potential tenants ッ applications shows that the clothing store space (see Table 9) is still the most demanded. It is remarkable that the combined share of three most demanded segments (clothing, catering, beauty and health) covers about half of all applications. Shopping Centers. Rental Rates In general, rental rates for shopping center space have not considerably changed over the last period. However, the following trends can be observed in certain segments. During the first half of 2004, demand and rental rates for cinema space stabilized. This trend followed a multiplex construction boom driven by the enormous demand for * Source: Mosgorkomstat ** Source: Colliers International 54 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
51 13Moscow Retail Sector Table 7. Major shopping centers opened in 2004 * Name Address Total space, Anchor tenants Date of sq. m. opening Vesna 19 Novy Arbat Ul., Bldg. 1 12,300 Constellation 22-Feb Articoli (Bosco di Ciliegi) Alexander Land 22 Prishvina Ul. 19,700 Paterson, Eldorado, 4-Mar Detsky Mir BUM 43 Pererva Ul., Bldg. 1 31,000 Sedmoy Kontinent, 12-Mar Detsky Mir Novinsky Passage 31 Novinsky Blvd. 16,000 Ramstore 8-Apr Auchan Krasnogorsk 11 Chetvyorty Myakininsky Pr-d 20,000 Auchan 12-May Mosmart, M.Video, Waypark MKAD 71 km 71,000 SportMaster, 30-Jul Starik Hottabych Mosmart 116d Dmitrovskoe Sh. 26,000 Mosmart, M.Video 16-Sep L Lyublinskaya Ul. 62,000 Auchan, Eldorado 3-Nov Perekryostok, Sun Paradise 6 Borovskoye Sh. 11,700 Technosila, 7-Dec Arbat Prestige MEGA II Khimki, District 8 270,000 IKEA, Auchan, OBI, Stockmann 15-Dec 5th Avenue 32 Marshala Biryuzova Ul. 44,000 Perekryostok, 25-Dec Cinema Park movie theatres. By the end of the year, rental rates inched up again as new operators entered the market. In some cases, rental rates in the catering segment grew, driven by severe competition. Rental rates decline can be observed for gifts and souvenirs outlets. This comes as a result of the fall in demand for space in shopping centers targeting middle-class consumers. Table 8. Approximate distribution of space in malls* Segment Share of space, % Size range, sq. m. Staples ,500ィC15,000 Clothing ィC950 Entertainment ィC4,000 Catering/Food-court ィC600 Electronic goods ィC2,500 Sport and leisure ィC500 Footwear ィC400 Accessories ィC130 Health and beauty ィC400 Household goods ィC500 Children ッs goods ィC300 Printed media ィC500 Other 5.1 In a mild-competitive environment, rental rates by segments for standard-size units in malls are described in the table 10. Street Retail. Supply and Demand 2004 witnessed a significant growth of the aggregate space supply spurred by the reconstruction of premises located on the ground floors of the existing apartment buildings and by addition of retail components to new residential developments, or even by the High Street retail boom. Substantial improvement in the efficiency of space utilization (development of underground floors, second floors, and mezzanines), as well as involvement of non-retail space of administrative and other buildings was typical for the central districts. As in previous years, new construction is virtually absent. It is obvious that opportunities for such increase in supply will be depleted soon, and that the rare new developments will not have much impact on the market. * Source: Colliers International RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
52 13Retail Sector Moscow Table 9. Breakdown of demand by segments* Segment Share of applications, Required space, sq. m. % MinィCmax Average Clothing ィC3, Catering/Food-court ィC1, Health and beauty 7.9 7ィC1, Automotive goods ィC3, DIY (do-it-yourself) ィC7,000 3,508 Entertainment 6.3 3ィC3, Children ッs goods ィC3, Electronic goods 4.3 7ィC1, Sport and leisure ィC2, Accessories 2.5 2ィC Services ィC Furniture ィC Footwear ィC Printed media 2.1 4ィC Other 6.8 Table 10. Distribution of rental rates by segments * Segment Size range, sq. m. Rental rate, $/sq. m./year Anchor tenants Hypermarket 5,000ィC15,000 70ィC150 Supermarket 1,500ィC3, ィC250 Electronic goods 1,200ィC2, ィC350 Sport and leisure 600ィC1, ィC450 Clothing 600ィC1, ィC900 Entertainment 250ィC4,000 50ィC250 Household goods 400ィC ィC1000 Children ッs goods 1,000ィC3, ィC400 Other tenants Clothing 30ィC ィC2,500 Footwear 50ィC ィC1,200 Sport and leisure 50ィC ィC1,200 Health and beauty 40ィC ィC1,800 Household goods 30ィC ィC1,800 Children ッs goods 40ィC1, ィC1,500 Mobile and digital equipment 20ィC80 3,500ィC5,000 Accessories 20ィC70 1,500ィC4,000 Gift and souvenir shops 20ィC100 1,000ィC3,000 Catering/Food-court 20ィC80 700ィC1,200 Services 10ィC ィC1,150 * Source: Colliers International 56 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
53 13Moscow Retail Sector Besides the influence of the favorable macroeconomic environment mentioned above, the level and dynamics of demand were also determined by the following factors: dynamic expansion of retail chains (grocery chains, drug stores, retail banking, coffee shops, etc.); further development of brand and boutique trade (significant for High Street retail); significant increase in the number of catering operators (restaurants, cafes, coffee shops, etc.); increase in the competitive pressure of professional shopping centers, which affects mainly street retail properties located outside High Streets; growth in the number of flagship stores set up with the purpose of brand promotion; tenants ッ willingness for considerable investments into fit-out of retail space ィC extension of the period of leasehold acquisition. On the whole, in 2004 the demand for the High Street retail space was high, which is confirmed by the low vacancy rates ィC from 0% to 5%. Street Retail. Rental Rates and Sale Prices The major factors influencing the rental rates and sale prices are location and physical characteristics of the space (usable area, ceiling height, etc.). Simultaneously, the number of comparable leasehold, and especially, freehold acquisitions, is too insignificant to describe the dynamics of rates and prices reliably. The data presented in Diagram 9 is indicative and reflects the highest rates and sale prices for the premises located in the main shopping streets of the city based on the 2004 transactions. The growth of these indicators is stimulated by a considerable fall in the purchasing power of the US dollar (more than 30% over the last two years) ィC the currency commonly used to set rates and prices. Our analysis shows that over the last year the rental rates for premises located in the main shopping streets have generally grown by approximately 10%. The investment market can be divided into two segments: sales to end-users and investment sales. Capitalization rates vary from 10 to 12% for sales to end-users and for investment sales they represent 15%. Emergence of New Retail Concepts The first delicatessen store in Russia ィC Fauchon ィC was opened in Moscow in October. A new player entered the Russian clothing market ィC C&A, the German-and-Belgian company specializing in the clothes for middle-class consumers. It rented space in shopping center Mega-II in Khimki, near Moscow. The first Russian Boyner department store owned by the largest Turkish company in the non-food retail market was opened in Mega-II. British House department stores were opened in Moscow again ィC in Mega-I, Mega-II and Dvoriansky House. The second largest German retailer Rewe is entering the Russian market by opening Billa food supermarkets. Forecast for Shopping Centers First significant sales transactions to shopping center investments are expected. The volume of financing retail development projects is expected to increase. The number of construction projects involving international architectural companies will increase. Construction projects of super-regional shopping centers on the MKAD (similar to Mega-I and Mega-II) will be developed. New international brands are expected to enter the market. As the number of professional retail properties grows, weakly conceptualized projects will suffer in profitability. Significant projects in the commercial real estate market of large Russian cities are to be launched. In the Russian regions retail space in shopping centers will grow at a rate higher than that of Moscow. Increase in competition among retailers, particularly, supermarket operators, electronics stores, cinemas, mobile accessories stores, catering (food-court) is expected. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
54 13Retail Sector Moscow Diagram 9 Rental rates and sale prices for premises on main retail corridors* Tverskaya Ul. 0 sale price 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 N. Arbat Ul. (left side) Arbat Ul. 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya Ul. Kutuzovsky Pr. Garden Ring Leninsky Pr ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 rental rate Rental rate, $/sq. m./year (excluding operating expenses, net of VAT) Sale price, $/sq. m. (net of VAT) Forecast for Street Retail Stabilization of supply of premises located along the main retail corridors. High level of tenants ッ turnover in the prime retail properties. Possibly, appearance of boutique zones. Increase in the number of transactions related to the acquisitions of properties by end-users. Further increase in demand for retail space from retail chains and brands. Rental rates will be determined partially by the decline in the US dollar purchasing power and the increase in the available shopping center stock. * Source: Colliers International 58 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
55 13ST. PETERSBURG
56 13Investment St. Petersburg Investment A ccording to the administration of St. Petersburg, in 2004, foreign investments in the city ッs economy increased by 40% and reached $900 mln. Most investments came from the USA (28%), Cyprus (14%), the United Kingdom (11%), Finland (11%), and the Netherlands (9%). Direct investments amounted to 13% of total foreign investments. By way of encouraging investments in the city, Administration introduced new income and property tax benefits in Simultaneously new additions to the Law on Tax Privileges were made. Besides, aiming to foster the development of industrial areas and the infrastructure and also to facilitate investments, the St. Petersburg city government established the City Industrial Investments Agency. Moody's raised the long-term rating of St. Petersburg to Baa3. Standard & Poor's and Fitch approved the ratings of BB and BB+, respectively. Several further large-scale industrial investment projects were initiated: telecommunications plant by Elcoteq ィC $100 mln; vodka production plant by Russian Standard ィC $25 mln; processing and warehouse complex by Pepsi Bottling Group ィC $20 mln; production plant extension by Petersburg Products International (trade mark Gillette) ィC $20 mln. All these projects are to be completed in In 2004 the first real estate investment trusts appeared in St. Petersburg. The largest of them were: the Russian Residential Real Estate and Interregional Real Estate Fund established by CIT (investments into commercial and residential property in Moscow and other regions); Residential Real Estate established by the Industry and Construction Bank; The First Petersburg Fund of Direct Real Estate Investments (investments into Narvsky Business Center); Nevo-Invest (development of production facilities of Nevo-Tabak) established by the asset management company Svinin and Partners. The City sold its controlling interests in hotels Vyborgskaya, Yuzhnaya, Kiyevskaya, Tourist and Chaika. Total investments amounted to $18 mln. Further auctions are planned for next year with a view of selling the City ッs shares in hotels Pulkovskaya, Pribaltiyskaya, Astoria, Oktyabrskaya, Moskva and Deson-Ladoga. The procedures of transferring the right to rent land for construction purposes were facilitated: the Investment-Tender Commission was replaced by a short-package trade mechanism, which requires fewer documents. This makes the procedures less cumbersome, but the information provided about the land is insufficient, which requires a full-package trade mechanism to be launched in RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
57 13St. Petersburg Investment Table 1. Major investment projects completed in 2004 Project Size, sq. m. Investor/Developer Investments, $ mln Retail Gulliver Shopping & Office Center 62,000 Dubl-2 50 PIK Shopping Center 32,200 PetroMir 35 Mercury Shopping Center (3rd and 4th phases) 49,400 Adamant 30 O'Key Hypermarket 32,000* Dorinda Holding 20.5 Lenta-6 Cash & Carry 13,400 Lenta Cash & Carry 20 Nord Shopping Center (2nd phase) 26,700 Adamant, AORS 16 DIY Store Maksidom-4 Store 19,000 Maksidom 15 Lenta-5 Cash & Carry 20,000 Lenta Cash & Carry 15 Ozerki Shopping Center 16,000 Adamant 14 Office centers Nevsky, 38 14,700 ICBank 45 Renaissance House 8,150 Renaissance Construction 5 Industrial objects and warehouses Furniture production plant n/a Pervaya Mebelnaya Fabrika 20 Food production plant 24,000 Baltimor 12 * Incl. underground parking ィC 14,000 sq. m. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
58 13Office Sector St. Petersburg Office Sector I n 2004, the office market registered slower growth. About 40,000 of 120,000 sq. m. of new office space was commissioned in this period. The opening of several business centers was postponed from the end of 2004 to Q Supply By the end of 2004, office space in St. Petersburg represented 740,000 sq. m. As in the previous period, the supply increased due to the construction of Class B office centers (67% of total new construction). Compared to 2003, the office market structure (by classes) did not change. Diagram 1 Rentable office areas, sq. m. k Class A Distribution and growth of office center space in 2004 Class 02 Class 05 Class 05 Increase at the beginning of 2004 Increase in 2004 In 2004, two new Class A business centers were opened: Geneum and Nevsky, 38 (see Table 2). In 2005, over 25,000 sq. m will be introduced in the market (see Table 3). Accordingly, by the end of 2005 Class A office space is expected to increase by 75%. Rental rates for Class A office space slightly rose (about 5%). Supply rates range from $470 to $620 per sq. m. (net of VAT, including operating expenses). Class B Seven new business centers totaling 30,000 sq. m. were introduced to the market. Rental rates for Class B space vary from $260 to $480 per sq. m. (net of VAT, including operating expenses). In 2004, rental rates increased by 6%. Class C Average vacancy rates and rental rates (Class B) 19% % 320 Currently the office space market is dominated by Class C buildings (about 71%). However in 2004 only one business center of this class was commissioned (see Table 2). Quoted rental rates for Class C business centers range from $160 to $290 per sq. m. (net of VAT, including operating expenses). In 2004, the rental rates grew by 7% % 5% Vacancy rates, % 6% Proposed rental rates, $/year Diagram 3 Diagram 2 Diagram 4 Average vacancy rates and rental rates (Class A) Average vacancy rates and rental rates (Class C) 53% % 180 9% % 7% 3% 1% 139 5% 4% 5% Vacancy rates, % Proposed rental rates, $/year Vacancy rates, % Asking rental rates, $/year 62 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
59 13St. Petersburg Office Sector Demand Demand for office space in general remains high, due to the interest of large Russian and foreign companies for Class A and B+ offices, to premises totaling 100ィC450 sq. m. and to large office blocks exceeding 500 sq. m. In Class B and C segments the highest demand is for office premises of 50ィC150 sq. m. Forecast In 2005, developers plan to introduce approximately 170,000 sq. m. of office space to the market (about 80% of it will be Class B offices). A relative balance between supply and demand will be maintained. A surge in supply is most unlikely. A minor increase in rental rates (5ィC8%) is expected, but taking into account the inflation Table 2. Business Centers, St. Petersburg (December, 2004) Rentable Occupancy, Offer rates, $/sq. m. Project Address office space, % (O05 incl., sq. m. VAT excl.) Class A Nevsky, 38* 38 Nevsky Pr. 4, ィC500 Northern Capital House 36 Nab. Reki Moyki 8, Atrium 25 Nevsky Pr. 5, ィC620 Swedish House 1/3 02al. Konyushennaya Ul. 3, Geneum* 10 Nevsky Pr. 1, White Nights House 23 02al. Morskaya Ul. 6, Karavannaya, Karavannaya Ul. 6, n/a Class B Petrovsky Fort 4 Finliandsky Pr. 16, ィC410 City-Center 18 Petrogradskaya Nab. 25, ィC400 Mir 4 Yefimova Ul. 9, ィC400 Renaissance House* 17 2nd Sovetskaya Ul. 5, ィC400 Goldex 36 Shpalernaya Ul. 7, Europa House 1 Artilleriyskaya Ul. 10, Yelizavetinsky 14 13th Linija Vasiljevskogo Ostrova 7, Senator* 1 Kropotkina Ul. 5, Akvatoriya 61 Vyborgskaya Nab. 15, Admiral* 118 Nab. Obvodnogo Kanala 6, Neptun 93a Nab. Obvodnogo Kanala 6, Pallada 2 Krasnogvardeyskaya Pl. 5, TV-Polis 6 Chapigina Ul. 6, Bely Ostrov 64 Serdobolskaya Ul. 5, Chernaya Rechka (phase I) 22 Beloostrovskaya Ul. 5, Class 05 Farvater 7 Vvedenskogo Kanala Ul. 5, Admiraltejsky 35 Bol. Morskaya Ul. 5, Sampsonyevsky DTs 32 Bol. Sampsonyevsky Pr. 8, Evrika 11 Sedova Ul. 25, Avrora-City (phase I)* 4 Shaumyana Pr. 2, * Business centers commissioned in 2004 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
60 13Office Sector St. Petersburg and the exchange rate trends, it may in fact amount to a slight decrease. Occupancy rates will remain high. Business centers will be constructed as part of multifunctional complexes combining retail, hotel and entertainment facilities (Platinum; 38 Nevsky; River House; Golitsin). Demand for large offices (over 1,000 sq. m.) will stay high. Demand for purchasing offices will increase. The construction of new business centers (including Class A, B+ business centres) will shift from the historical city center to newly developed business areas. Table 3. Business centers to be opened in 2005 Rentable Offer rates, Project Address Class office space, $/sq. m. (OC incl., sq. m. VAT excl.) Severnaya Stolitsa (phase II) 3 Volinsky Per. 02 6, Veda-House 18 Petrogradskaya Nab. 02 8, Senator 1 Chaykovskogo Ul. 02 6, Senator 10 Sadovaya Ul. 02 3, Platinum 30 Bol. Morskaya Ul. 02 2, Austrian Business Center 4 Orenburgskaya Ul. 02ィC05 10,700 (total) 360 Senator 15 Chapayeva Ul , Fenix 4 Sverdlovskaya Nab , Constanta 153 Leninsky Pr , Admiral (phase II) 118 Obvodnogo Kanala Nab , River-House (phase II) 5 Akademika Pavlova Ul , Sheremetyev 47 Stachek Pr , ィェ-4 12 Sedova Ul , ィC305-13b Levashovsky Pr ,200 Shpalernaya, Shpalernaya Ul ,500 Sales: 1,600ィC1,800 76ヲ0 14th Linija Vasiljevskogo Ostrova 05 9,500 Sales: 1,565ィC1, Kolomiazhsky Pr. 05 8,000 Sales: 850 Table 4. Major lease transactions, 2004 Tenant Address/Project Class Size, sq. m. Skanska 9 Blokhina Ul./Kronverk B 6,000 Motorola 12 Sedova Ul./ィェ ,000 Svarog Group 1 Petrovskaya Kosa Ul. /Petrovsky 05 2,000 IntelliJ Labs 2 Kantemirovskaya Ul./Times 05 1,400 Banque Societe Generale Vostok 17 2nd Sovetskaya Ul./Renaissance House 05+ 1,100 SPM 25 Nevsky Pr./Atrium Citibank 15 Italyanskaya Ul (extension) Outo Kumpu 15 Chapayeva Ul./Senator Vneshneftekhim 37 Reki Moyki Nab./Northern Capital Canon 36 Reki Moyki Nab./Northern Capital Fortum 25 Nevsky Pr./Atrium DHL 10 Nevsky Pr./Geneum RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
61 13St. Petersburg Warehouse Sector Warehouse Sector T he growth of the industrial production and trade as well as steady expansion of retail chains ィC both local and international ィC encourage constant increase of demand for modern warehouse facilities whose acute shortage is currently recorded. In 2004, the St. Petersburg Government passed a resolution on setting up five new industrial/ warehouse zones totaling 3,700 ha in the following suburbs: Shushary-2, Metallostroy-2, Konnaya Lakhta, Predportovaya-3, Noydorf-Strelna. Land use planning and management in these territories will be carried out at the expense of the city. A recent trend is to set up high-technology centers, i. e. professionally managed industrial parks. Supply Supply is mainly represented by the facilities of former industrial zones that do not completely meet the tenants ッ requirements. The majority of premises (above 40% of total supply) are leased for $50ィC70/sq. m. annually (incl. VAT and operating expenses). In St. Petersburg quality warehouse facilities of international standards amount to approximately 115,000 sq. m. (Interterminal, Okhta-Terminal, JFC terminal, etc.). 45 ha of new industrial zone Noydorf-Strelna ready for the development (after land use planning and management procedures have been completed) will be put up for sale in Acute shortage of production and warehouse facilities totaling over 3,000 sq. m. is observed. The number of sale/lease applications for industrial/warehouse facilities located in the suburbs of St. Petersburg, 10 km away from the city boundary, is increasing. Tenants ッ requirements become more exacting. Tenants prefer to receive full package of additional services, such as customs clearance, record keeping, material handling services, etc. Rental Rates and Sale Prices The average increase in rental rates for warehouse facilities varies from 13% to 17%. Changes are mostly related to the international quality warehouse facilities. Rental rates for Class A facilities may exceed $160 per sq. m. per annum. Rental rates for the average class heated space are at the level of $80ィC100 per sq. m. per annum. Rental rates for low quality unheated premises ィC are $10ィC50 per sq. m. per annum. The average price of industrial/warehouse facilities for sale is $200ィC400 per sq. m. and the price for international quality facilities is within the range of $700ィC1,000 per sq. m. Sale prices for industrial CIP facilities vary from $150 to $300 per sq. m. Sale prices for warehouse facilities with a similar level of infrastructure development in the Leningrad Region (no more than 10 km away from the city boundary) are 20ィC25% lower than those in St. Petersburg. Okhta Terminal. Class A warehouse Demand The highest demand is for 500ィC1,500 sq. m. warehouse facilities, primarily among small and medium Russian companies. The demand for larger facilities (of 2,000ィC6,000 sq. m.) remains high among international and large local retailers, as well as logistics companies. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
62 13Warehouse Sector St. Petersburg Forecast Increasing demand for international quality warehouse facilities as a result of the growing interest in the St. Petersburg market on the part of foreign and local investors. Constant growth of the number of industrial and warehouse facilities located in the suburbs of St. Petersburg due to the scheduled launch of the next section of the ring road and to the establishment of new industrial zones. Increasing demand for specialized warehouses (such as refrigerating facilities). Rental rates for international standard facilities will not change. A decrease in demand for low quality warehouse premises and facilities requiring no state registration, neither the right of use or possession. Table 5. Existing and perspective class A warehouses and logistic complexes Name Location Useful area, Developer / sq. m. Initiator Existing Interterminal Parnas 45,000 Group Inkotek Warehouse Parnas 32,000 Laverna JFC company terminal 60 Sofiyskaya Ul. 17,000 Joint Fruit Corporation Okhta-Terminal Energetikov Pr. 13,000 Megalogistic Utkina Zavod 104/41 Oktiabrskaya Nab. 10,000 Craftrise Markitantov group Perspective Logistic center Gorelovo 75,000 Astros Logistic center Logistic center Kubinskaya Ul. 50,000 Group Inkotek Logistic center Shushari 14,000 PNK Logistics Logistic center Intersection of ring road and Vyborgskoye Sh. 10,000 MK PSB, Schenker Warehouse Shushari 10,000 Sunway Warehouse (phase I) Pulkovskoye Sh. 10,000 Tilman Kraus Property Container terminal Railway station Predportovaya 5,000 Group Evrosib Logistic center Industrial zone Metallostroy 3,000 Nevskiye krasky 66 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
63 13St. Petersburg Retail Sector Retail Sector I n 2004, the retail and catering turnover reached approximately $7.4 bln (in 2003 ィC $6 bln), whereof the catering turnover was $350 mln (in 2003 ィC $250 mln). Supply In 2004, approximately 320,000 sq. m. of retail space were introduced to the market. At the end of 2004, the total area of large retail facilities 1 amounted to 1.2 mln sq. m. (see Diagram 5). Diagram 5 Tatal area, sq. m. k Increase in the areas of the large retail facilities f At the beginning of the year Increase About 60 large shopping centers are operating and more than 30 facilities are under construction or reconstruction. As far as the supply of operating retail facilities is concerned, the Primorsky, Vyborgsky and Central districts are leading. The highest level of construction activity is taking place in the Vyborgsky, Moscovsky and Primorsky districts. The market structure of large retail facilities (by area) as of the end of 2004 is presented in Chart 1. Adamant Holding Company is the leader among professional retail centers developers. Demand In 2004, the highest demand was for 50ィC100 sq. m. units located in retail centers. As of the end of 2004, vacancy rates in most shopping centers were 5ィC10%. Rental rates and Sale Prices In 2004, the rental rates for retail spaces located in shopping centers did not change. The practice of selling tenant rights to such spaces gradually disappeared. Shopping center facilities are primarily sold to anchor tenants, i.e. food operators, household appliances and electronics, multiplexes. Sale prices vary from $800 to $1,500 per sq. m. Significant Events The Turkish company Ramenka opened its first Ramstore supermarket in St. Petersburg. The supermarket is located in the Gulliver Center (Staraya Derevnia metro station); its retail area totals 4,000 sq. m. In 2005, the same company is planning to open two more supermarkets located in the retail centers, as well as its own shopping and entertainment center at Kolomiazhsky Pr. Kesko signed a protocol of intent to purchase a controlling share in Stroymaster, a construction and refurbishment group (Tex Holding Company). These investors are planning to develop their own network named K-Rauta (DIY) in association with the Saint-Petersburg outlet. Table 6. Rental rates for anchor tenants in shopping centers Commodity groups Average area, sq. m. Rates, $/sq. m./year Foods: supermarket 1,000ィC4, ィC300 hypermarket 5,000ィC15, ィC180 Home appliances 1,000ィC4, ィC360 Sports and entertainment goods 1,000ィC1, ィC360 Clothing, Footwear 1,000ィC3, ィC480 Books, Audio and Video products 1, ィC240 Entertainment and recreation 500ィC7, ィC216 1 Retail facilities are considered large if their area totals 4,000 sq. m. or more. RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
64 13Retail Sector St. Petersburg Chart 1 Market structure of active large retail facilities (by area), end of % 12% 8% Moscow companies, such as Paterson, Sportmaster, M-Video and Perekryostok, extended their presence in the St. Petersburg market to respectively 9, 8, 5 and 4 outlets. The Detsky Mir group entered the market by opening 2 stores in the shopping malls. RosKinoProkat opened an eightscreen cinema complex in the PIK shopping center. Dorinda opened its fourth O ッKey hypermarket with a total area of 15,000 sq. m. The hypermarket will be one of the anchor tenants in the future Primorsky shopping mall (Primorskoye Shosse/Planernaya Ul.). Lenta Cash & Carry opened two more stores increasing its network to 6 outlets within one year. The Company also signed a seven-year credit contract for $30 mln with European Bank of Reconstruction and Development to finance the opening of 3 or 4 cash & carry stores in St. Petersburg for Agrotorg opened in St. Petersburg its first hypermarket Karusel on Pr. Bolshevikov. Companies ッ Plans 7% Specialized furniture shopping centers Cash & Carry Specialized shopping centers Hypermarkets Shopping centers 63% By 2005, Metro Cash & Carry is planning to open its third cash & carry store on Pulkovskoye Shosse. In first half of 2006, the Swedish company IKEA intends to open a MEGA shopping center close to the IKEA-Dibenko furniture store (Leningradskaya Oblast). The total investment for this project will reach approximately 250 mln. By 2007, OBI, the German DIY chain, is planning to open 4 stores in the southern part of St. Petersburg. The German chain of hypermarkets Real (part of METRO AG Group) announced it was entering the St. Petersburg market. The world ッs leading retailer Wal-Mart announced the possible opening of a 20,000 sq. m. hypermarket (approximate total area) in St. Petersburg. In two years ッ time, the British company Kingfisher is planning to open three or four Castorama stores (DIY) in St. Petersburg. The first store is scheduled to open at the beginning of The French Company Carrefour and the German discount chains Aldi and Lidl consider developing their retail network in St. Petersburg. Trends and Forecasts Further development of the St. Petersburg retail market under western operating companies, as well as the arrival of new international operators and developers. Increase of top level shopping malls. Improvement of the recreational part in shopping centers. Further development of retail chains (furniture centers developed by Furniture-City and Akvilon, O ッKey hypermarkets, Lenta Cash & Carry outlets, etc.) by local companies. In 2005, the total space in large retail facilities may exceed 1.5 mln sq. m. Rental rates may fall in the less successful shopping centers; tenants might move to newer high-standard retail facilities. 68 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
65 13St. Petersburg Retail Sector Table 7. Large retail facilities opened in 2004 Name Position Address Gulliver Multifunctional center (shopping, entertainment, business center) Staraya Derevnia m. st. Total area, sq. m. 38,800* Major tenants Ramstore, Intersport, Matritsa, Lukomorye, Mirazh Cinema movie theatre (two halls), Bowling Brunswick (ten tracks), Gulliver Park At. Park Karusel Hypermarket 32 Bolshevikov Pr. 9,500 Karusel Date of opening August- November, 2004 December, 2004 Kvartal Multifunctional center (shopping, business center, warehouses) Ligovsky Pr./ NovoRybinskaya Ul. 9,200** Piaterochka, Telemaks 2004 Lenta V Cash & 05arry 158 Tallinskoye Sh. 20,000 Lenta June, 2004 Lenta VI Cash & 05arry Vyborgskoye Sh./ Lunacharskogo Pr. 13,400 Lenta September, 2004 Maxidom IV Specialized shopping center 15 Bogatirsky Pr. 18,980 Maxidom October, 2004 Mebelny Continent ィC Ist phase Specialized furniture shopping center 3 Varshavskaya Ul. 17,280 October, 2004 Mercury ィC III, IVth phase Shopping and entertainment center 141 Savushkina Ul. 45,000 M.Video, SportMaster, Bowling Planet (20 tracks), Adamant, Great Furniture Center May- October, 2004 Nord ィC IInd phase Shopping and entertainment center 19 Prosvescheniya Pr. 26,380 Ozerky Shopping center 120 Engelsa Pr. 16,000 O ッKey IV PIK Hypermarket Shopping and entertainment center Primorskoye Sh./ Planernaya Ul. Sennaya Pl. 32,200 Kronverk Cinema Multiplex (six halls), Cosmic Bowling (24 tracks), Tranzas Technosila, Forum, Lukomorye 15,000 O ッKey Perekrestok, Multiplex (8 halls, Roskinoprokat), Detsky Mir, Baltic Sport Spring- Summer, 2004 March, 2004 December, 2004 November, 2004 * Excl. business center premises ** Excl. business center and warehouse premises RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
66 13Residential Sector St. Petersburg Residential Sector A lthough St. Petersburg has no well-defined criteria for elite housing yet, minimum requirements have already been established. They include availability of certain facilities, high quality of construction and engineering systems, good layout, residential safety meeting international standards, and additional services (parking, garage, operating services, etc.). The major requirement for elite housing is location. The most expensive apartments are situated in Zone A, which is also called the Golden Triangle. It is bounded by the Neva (Dvortsovaya Nab., Admiralteyskaya Nab., partially Angliyskaya Nab. and Kutuzovskaya Nab.), Nevsky Prospect and the Fontanka River. Zone B traditionally includes the apartments located along Nevsky Prospect to the east of Fontanka, near the Tavrichesky Palace and the Mariinsky Theatre, as well as some streets and embankments of Petrogradskaya Storona. Elite residential property is also located on Krestovsky and Kamenny Islands (Sestroretsk, Pushkin, Pavlovsk) in the Gulf of Finland. Supply In 2004, the supply of elite housing grew mainly due to the construction of new property in the city center. New apartments outside the center are an increasingly attractive investment object due to their superior technical characteristics, as compared to the old buildings. Several construction projects are presented in Table 8. In 2004, the share of vacated communal apartments in the total supply continued to decrease. The reason was a rise in prices for residential real estate throughout the city, which led to an increase in the cost of apartment vacation. Unmarketable apartments are still not vacated. There is an acute shortage of elite housing for direct sale. Supply on the market of elite real estate located in the country increased due to construction of several cottage settlements classified as elite projects (see Table 9). Settlements of this kind should meet the following requirements: developed infrastructure and communications system; social homogeneity; location within 60 km from the city. On the whole, supply in the lease market exceeds demand, since many buyers of elite real estate purchase it for further leasing. The largest share of supply is held by apartments of about 100 sq. m. (1ィC2 bedrooms). Table 8. Elite construction projects Date of commissioning apartments $/sq. m. Number of Price, Project Address Company 133 Nevsky Pr. Commissioned 21 3,500 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. Block 1 Robespyera Nab. Q ,000ィC3,000 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. 60 Shpalernaya Ul. Stage I ィC Q Stage II ィC Q n/a 3,000 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. 4 Bolshaya Morskaya Ul./ 49 Reki Moyki Nab. 58ィC60 Kamennoostrovsky Pr. Q ,000ィC10,000 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. Q ,200 Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. House at sea 74 Martinova Nab. Q Not for sale Vozrozhdeniye SPb Ltd. 8a Vosstaniya Ul. Commissioned 35 3,250 Peterburgreconstruction Ltd. At the Rostralny Columns Intersection of Birzhevoy Per. and Birzhevaya Linija Q ,800 LenSpetsSMU JSC New Star 14 Pesochnaya Nab. Q ,000 R.B.I. Holding Company 70 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW 2005
67 13St. Petersburg Residential Sector Demand The number of Russian citizens buying elite apartments is rapidly increasing. The budget varies from $250,000 to $600,000. Foreigners ッ interest in buying elite apartments (mainly in Zone A) remains high. The greatest demand is for completely finished apartments of 50ィC200 sq. m. Elite apartments are purchased mostly with the purpose of investment. Russian citizens expect profitability of at least 20ィC30%, while foreigners expect 10%. The demand in the elite real estate lease market is mainly driven by foreign companies, consulates, and large Russian companies, leasing apartments for their employees. The companies allocate resources to rent apartments for average executives at $1,000ィC$1,500 per month. Usually these are twoor three-room apartments of 50ィC100 sq. m. located in the city center. For top managers, the companies usually rent 100ィC150 sq. m. three-room apartments situated in the elite city center at $2,000ィC$3,000 per month. For the company management and their families, apartments with three or four bedrooms are usually leased at the monthly rate of $6,000ィC$7,000. The average lease term is one year. Price Sale prices for elite apartments vary from $1,500 to $7,000 per sq. m. The highest prices (up to $7,000 per sq. m.) are for the apartments in the elite housing zone. In the Admiralteysky district the price is $1,500ィC$3,000 per sq. m., in the Petrogradsky district ィC $1,800ィC$4, 500 per sq. m. Rental rates for elite apartments are contingent on their location. In Zone A the average rental rate is $1,500ィC$3,000 per sq. m., in Zone B ィC $800ィC$15,000 per sq. m. Rental rates for elite residential real estate are growing much more slowly than the supply prices, since these rates directly depend on the companies ッ budgets. Forecast Further increase in the elite and high standard apartments supply is expected as a result of several new elite housing construction projects. The expected reduction in secondary market prices (estimated at 10ィC15%) will hardly affect the cost of elite apartments. The demand for expensive apartments will remain strong. Table 9. Cottage settlements Project Location Commissioning Number Price of houses $/sq. m. Severny Versal Northen part of Lakhta settlement, near Novaya Ul. Q ,100ィC6,000 Tsarskoselskoye Pomestye Pavlovsk, Pos. Tiarlevo Q Several dozens 2,600 Repinskaya Usadba Pos. Repino Q1ィCQ ,600 SPb Gorky Pos. Yukki, near Yukki Forest Reserve Q ,000 RUSSIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW
68 13Making Sense of Real Estate Worldwide LITHUANIA Vilnius Copyright Colliers International This report is intended as general market research and is based upon material in our possession or supplied to us, which we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy and completeness we cannot offer any warranty that factual errors may not have occurred. We would like to be told of any such errors so that these can be corrected. Colliers International takes no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered by reason of the inaccuracy or incorrectness of this report.
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