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1 Trends in disaster losses Claudia Buholzer Rosenkranz Munich Re Japan Services K.K. Advanced Reinsurance Course Tokyo, April 23, 2009
2 NatCatSERVICE Most comprehensive global loss database for natural catastrophes Today more than 25,000 data sets Reliable data and creditability More than 200 different data sources From 1970 until today all loss events have been analysed and entered Retrospectively all Great Disasters since 1950 have been analysed and entered (285 data sets) In addition all major historical events starting from 79 AD eruption of Mt. Vesuvio (3,000 historical data sets) Downloadcenter on the Internet Basis for numerous analyses 2
3 Natural catastrophes 2008 World map 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009 Significant loss events (selection) Great natural catastrophes: Hurricane Ike ( Sep 6-14, 2008) Caribbean, USA Cyclone Nargis (May 2-5, 2008) Myanmar Earthquake (May 12, 2008) China Winter damage (Jan 10 Feb 13, 2008) China 2008: 750 natural catastrophes Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (storm) Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January
4 Natural catastrophes costliest natural catastrophes ordered by overall losses * Original values ** Missing people not included: Cyclone Nargis: 54,000; Earthquake Sichuan: 18, Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009
5 Natural catastrophes 2008 Percentage distribution worldwide ordered by type of event 750 loss events 163,000 fatalities Overall losses* US$ 200bn Insured losses* US$ 45bn *in 2008 values *in 2008 values Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009
6 Natural catastrophes 2008 Percentage distribution worldwide ordered by continent 750 loss events 163,000 fatalities Overall losses* US$ 200bn Insured losses * US$ 45bn *in 2008 values *in 2008 values Africa Asia Australia/Oceania Europe North America, incl. Central America and the Caribbean South America Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009
7 Global natural catastrophes Overall and insured losses with trend US$bn Overall losses (in 2008 values) Insured losses (in 2008 values) Trend overall losses Trend insured losses 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January
8 Reasons for globally increasing losses due to natural disasters Rise in population Better standard of living Settlement in extremely exposed regions Vulnerability of modern societies and technologies to natural hazards Increasing insurance density Change in environmental conditions - Climate Change J 8
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11 Global natural disasters Number of events Number Geophysical events (Earthquake, Tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January
12 Global natural disasters Number of events relative trends 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January
13 Natural catastrophes in Asia Costliest catastrophes: insured losses Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009
14 Natural catastrophes in Asia Overall and insured losses US$180bn US$bn Overall losses (in 2008 values) Insured losses (in 2008 values) Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009
15 Natural catastrophes in Asia Number of events Number Geophysical events (Earthquake, Tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February
16 South-, Southeast and East Asia Megacities in Asia Built up area projections by regions Source: Angel, S., et al. (2005),The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion, World Bank. Source: World Bank 2008, - Projected urban population growth until 2030: China 92%, Indonesia 111%, Philippines 96%, all of East Asia 83%. Most growth happens at urban fringes (250 Million in China alone) due to migration (65% today) fragile areas (e.g. river banks, flood plains, canal edges) prone to hits from natural hazards. 16
17 Disaster loss potential 2015 relative to 2005 for the 10 largest Megacities Source: Bower, Crompton, Faust, Höppe, Pielke (2007), Confronting Disaster Losses, Science 318, p
18 Natural catastrophes in Japan Overall losses* US$ 280bn *in 2008 values Insured losses * US$ 46bn *in 2008 values Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009
19 Climate change affects insurance industry Increase in weather variability New levels of weather extremes New kinds of weather risks More frequent and more intense natural catastrophes Changing patterns of infectious diseases and other health effects Lacking experience in new kinds of hazards Prospective risk modelling Increasing demand for NatCat covers New insurance products can be developed J 19
20 The Insurance Sector s role The role of insurance industry in partnership with society - Provision of data on losses from natural disasters to science, political decision makers and the public - Transparency of risks via risk measurement & risk adequate premiums -> sound actions, prevention, reduced loss loads for society - Products promoting society s emissions reduction goals (weather losses) - Products enhancing society s hazard-adaptive capability J 20
21 Studies on CC impacts Risks and Opportunities for the insurance industry Specialized publications on climate issues Hurricanes More intense, more frequent, more expensive. Insurance in a time of changing risks (2006) Highs and lows - Weather risks in central Europe (2007) Topics Geo annual review of natural catastrophes
22 Climate Change Exhibition at Munich Re Japan Services K.K. in September 2008 Over 300 visitors from japanese insurance companies, politics, industry and media visited and enjoyed the interactive exhibition concept. 22
23 Download-Center on the Internet Thank you for your interest!
24 Natural catastrophes Percentage distribution worldwide 18,000 loss events 1,700,000 fatalities Overall losses* US$ 2,600bn Insured losses * US$ 630bn *in 2008 values *in 2008 values volcanic eruption) Geophysical events Meteorological events Hydrological events (Earthquake, tsunami, (Storm) (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE drought, forest fires) As at January 2009
25 Natural catastrophes in Asia Percentage distribution 5,700 loss events 1,060,000 fatalities Overall losses* US$ 1,050bn Insured losses * US$ 62bn *in 2008 values *in 2008 values Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009
26 自然災害による世界的な損害増加の理由 人口の増加 生活水準の向上 自然災害の危険性が非常に高い地域での定住 現代社会とテクノロジーの自然災害への脆弱性 保険契約の増加 環境条件の変化 気候変動 E8
27 気候変動の保険業界へ与える影響 天候の変わりやすい状況が頻繁に発生 異常気象の深刻化 新しい種類の天候リスク 自然災害の深刻さと発生の頻度が増している 伝染病やその他の健康への影響の傾向が変化 新しい種類の災害に対する経験不足 将来を見通したリスク モデリング 自然災害リスクに対する保険カバーへの需要の増加 新しい保険商品の開発 E19
28 保険業界の役割 社会と協力して担う保険業界の役割 - 自然災害の損害データを科学界 政府 一般に提供 - リスクマネジメントおよびリスクに見合った保険料を通して リスクの透明性を高める 健全な措置 防止 社会の損害負担を軽減 - 社会の排出削減目標を促進する商品 - 社会が損害に対する適応能力を強化できるような商品 E20
29 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) / Microinsurance April 23rd, 2009 Christoph Stuber Group Leader Business Development Manager Non-Life MR Japan Services K.K.
30 Agenda Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) Background Mission Rationale Management of Natural Hazard Risks/Examples Activities Microinsurance Basics of Microfinance/Microinsurance Munich Re activities/practical examples Challenges/reinsurance services 2
31 Agenda Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) Background 3
32 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative - Background Why? The Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) was launched by Munich Re in April 2005 as it was increasingly realised that insurance-related solutions can support the adaptation to climate change proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol. Who? This initiative brings together insurers, experts on climate change and adaptation, NGOs and policy researchers intent on finding solutions to the risks posed by climate change. MCII provides a forum and gathering point for insurance-related expertise on climate-change impact issues. Group open to new members, e.g. (re)insurance industry, climate change and adaptation experts, NGOs. J 4
33 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative - Background What? Registered non-profit association dealing with international frameworks and public-private insurance mechanisms for those particularly affected by global climate change J 5
34 Agenda Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) Mission 6
35 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative - Mission Four objectives To facilitate insurance-related solutions to help deal with the impact of climate change. To conduct and support pilot projects for the application of insurancerelated solutions in partnerships and through existing organizations and programs To promote insurance-related approaches in cooperation with other organizations and initiatives To identify and promote loss-reduction measures for tackling climaterelated events J 7
36 Agenda Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) Rationale 8
37 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative - Rationale In recent years more and more indications that climatic change is influencing the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes. We expect: an increase in the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes in many parts of the world new exposures more extensive damages and economic, social and environmental consequences as a result of weather-related disasters ---> Profound impact on lives, health, and property of millions of people. Special concern: Climate change will mostly impact the world s poorest people. J 9
38 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative - Rationale The decisive question: What strategies will help us adapt to climate change? Insurance-related mechanisms can be an effective part of adaptation strategies. They can counteract the negative effects of global warming and reduce the financial risks of the increasing number of natural catastrophes. J 10
39 Agenda Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) Management of Natural Hazard Risks/Examples 11
40 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative - Management of Natural Hazard Risks Drought in Yemen (Source: Munich Re) Losses caused by climate-related natural hazards are rising Currently US$100 billion economic losses / annum 95 per cent of deaths from natural disasters in the last 25 years occurred in developing countries Limited allocation of financial resources so far to support adaptation Developing countries Have lowest coping capacity, higher vulnerability (majority of fatalities) Management of climate risks Need to reduce risk and transfer risk in ways conducive to climate change adaptation Two issues: Link insurance with incentives to prevent losses Deliver climate insurance solutions to benefit those most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change 12
41 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative Examples of Insurance Tools to Manage Climate Risks in Developing Countries Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar, May 4, 2008 Meso-scale solutions like microinsurance Index-based drought insurance in Malawi, or government supported herder insurance in Mongolia Country-level insurance schemes Successful or promising sovereign schemes such as the parametric weather derivative in Ethiopia to help government protect rural poor Mexico s FONDEN Regional (multi-country) insurance pools Caribbean Catastrophe Reinsurance Facility (CCRIF). MR involved in leading role. Disaster insurance with international support has great potential for providing security to the poor. The market acting alone cannot provide this security. Hurricane Gustav, Haiti, August 27,
42 Agenda Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) Activities 14
43 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative - Activities The Bali Action Plan 2007 calls for consideration of risk sharing and transfer mechanisms, such as insurance to address loss and damage in developing countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. For the inclusion of insurance instruments in the post-2012 adaptation regime, the potential role of risk-pooling and risk-transfer systems must be firmly established. On the basis of the Bali Action Plan 2007, MCII proposes a climate risk management module to next Conference of Partners (COP) in Copenhagen 2009 that would include insurance tools for adapting to climate change in a- post-2012 agreement. 15
44 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative Activities: MCII Proposal RISK RISK MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT MODULE MODULE Insurance Pillar Insurance Pillar The two-tiered insurance pillar Prevention Pillar TIER 1 TIER 1 Climate Insurance Pool TIER 2 Support for micro and macro insurance systems Meets the principles set out by the UNFCCC Provides assistance to the most vulnerable, and Includes private market participation. Prevention Pillar Climate Insurance Pool TIER 2 Support for micro and macro insurance systems mainly mainly High Layer RISK High Layer RISK Middle Layer RISK Low Layer RISK Premiums paid by AF ($5 bn) Support financed by AF ($2 bn) Middle Layer RISK Support financed by AF ($3 bn) Low Layer RISK Rough estimated annual costs: $ 10 bn J 16
45 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative Activities: MCII proposal High risk level tier (tier 1): How much money needed? Level of current annual total economic losses caused by weather related natural catastrophes: US$ 100 bn (0,2% of global GDP of US$ 48 trn) Ratio of losses in developing countries: 7% of global losses = US$ 7 bn Ratio of global warming attribution: rough estimate 30% Average annual economic loss in developing countries due to global warming: 100 US$ bn x 7% x 30% = 2.1 US$ bn A very rough estimate by MR/external experts!!! J 17
46 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative Activities: MCII proposal The loss ratio to be indemnified under Tier 1 has to be negotiated by the international community; ultimately it should be linked to an estimated attribution of global warming to the losses covered. The requisite funding for a Climate Insurance Pool (CIP) covering the top 30% of losses arising from the most extreme climate events (return period of 1 in 100 years) in eligible developing countries can be assessed as: Indemnification of the top 30% of the total direct economic losses (both public and private) would range between USD 2.7 bn -USD 3.6 bn, with the maximum insured losses to be capped between 10 and 50 billion. The amount of the indemnification depends upon the availability of premium income for the pool. The gross annual costs of the suggested insurance scheme including capital and administration costs of reinsurance would range between USD 3.2 bn and USD 5.1 bn for the range of the above. A very rough estimate by MR/external experts!!! J 18
47 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative Activities The role of insurance industry in partnership with society Provision of data on weather-related losses to scientists, political decision makers and the public Transparency of risks via risk measurement & risk adequate premiums Insurance industry gives risks a price tag Products promoting emissions reduction goals and adaptation to the changes 19
48 Munich Climate Insurance Initiative Activities What needs to be done by MCII for the next Conference of Partners (COP) in Copenhagen end 2009? 1. Establish a risk management framework and request the COP to elaborate its operationalization in the context of two pillars: Prevention Pillar Insurance Pillar: Tier 1: Climate Insurance Pool Tier 2: Climate Insurance Assistance Facility 2. Include, under the financial provisions of the CAO, provisions for a fund or funding window for the two pillars - prevention and insurance Prevention pillar and insurance pillar work hand-in-hand to facilitate vulnerability reduction and adaptation 3. Request COP to identify suitable operating entity and detail the operation of the two pillars between 2009 and
49 Agenda Microinsurance Basics of Microfinance/Microinsurance 21
50 Basics of Microfinance "The great challenge before us is to address the constraints that exclude people from full participation in the financial sector. [ ] Together, we can and must build inclusive financial sectors that help people improve their lives." Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary General 22
51 Basics of Microfinance Low-income population and access to financial services 2,8 billion people worldwide live on less than 2 US$/day Most poor people do not have access to financial services as there is a strong correlation between income level and access to financial services. At the same time small and micro entrepreneurs account for at least 50% of developing country s GDP For many people, the only source of credit is a pawnshop or a moneylender who may charge staggeringly high interest and give hard time to clients who fail to pay on time. 23
52 Basics of Microfinance Microfinance is a term used to refer to the activity of provision of financial services to clients who are excluded from the traditional financial system on account of their lower economic status. J 24
53 Basics of Microinsurance Microinsurance is the protection of low-income people against specific perils in exchange for regular premium payments proportionate to the likelihood and cost of the risk involved. (Microinsurance Compendium 2006) 25
54 Basics of Microinsurance The risks around low-income people Death of relatives Grave illness Personal accidents Birth of children Natural disasters Robbery/theft Destruction of belongings Unemployment All these events put a pressure on the household budget 26
55 Basics of Microinsurance Complexity of different insurance products Highly complex - Crop insurance - Health and disability insurance - Annuities and endowment (retirement provision) - Property insurance - Term life insurance (payment to beneficiaries on death) Simpler J 27
56 Basics of Microinsurance Key Success Factors To serve poor people, microinsurance must be: Responsive to essential needs for risk protection Easy to understand Affordable Readily available Sold in the neighborhood and/or by trusted persons/distribution channels e.g. local bank, local service provider, retail chain stores, churches J 28
57 Basics of Microinsurance Landscape study 2007 MicroInsurance Centre Microinsurance offered in the 100 poorest countries 78 million people in the 100 poorest countries were found to have microinsurance cover. 357 microinsurance products (separate from social security schemes) 116 social security schemes 246 microinsurers (separate from government providers of social security) Microinsurance for the world s poor is growing fast, with most of its recent growth coming from the private sector. The microinsurers surveyed were positive about the future, predicting at least 10% growth over the following year and 100% growth over five years. 29
58 Agenda Microinsurance Munich Re activities/practical examples 30
59 Microinsurance - Munich Re activities/ practical examples Microinsurance activities of the Munich Re Foundation Europe 1 st International Microinsurance Conference Munich, Germany Partners 2006 Africa November Asia 2 nd International Microinsurance Conference Cape Town, South Africa Release of the Protecting the poor A microinsurance compendium 3 rd International Microinsurance Conference Mumbai, India 2008 Latin America 2009 Africa 4 th International Microinsurance Conference Cartagena, Colombia 5 th International Microinsurance Conference 3-5 November, Dakar, Senegal 31
60 Microinsurance - Munich Re activities/ practical examples Munich Re Since March 2007, microinsurance is part of the top initiatives and part of 13 non-life initiatives ERGO India: Microinsurance is already being sold. China: Preliminary status of microinsurance initiatives only. J 32
61 Microinsurance - Munich Re activities/ practical examples Practical example: MILA Colombia (Microinsurance for Latin America) In a joint project, Munich Re, Suramericana (Colombia) and Women s World Banking Bucaramanga (Colombia) developed life and property microinsurance policies for microenterpreneurs in Colombia. The policies cover against death, grave illness, fire, and natural hazards. Distribution started in 2006 (life) and 2007 (non life). Life: Approx clients bought insurance, this is about 50% of the total number of clients of the Women s World Banking Bucaramanga. Practical example: Venezuela Development of three microinsurance products with cooporation partners CESAP and Multinacional de Seguros Start of pilot projects for the sale of the policies, thereafter roll out in the whole country J 33
62 Microinsurance - Munich Re activities/ practical examples In planning: Design of an insurance cover protecting credit portfolios of Microfinance Institutions 34
63 Agenda Microinsurance Challenges/reinsurance services 35
64 Microinsurance - Challenges/ reinsurance services Challenges High transaction costs: Small amounts in individual premiums from a large number of people General insurance challenges: moral hazard, adverse selection, fraud, and overuse Weak institutional and regulatory frameworks, political arbitrariness and poor official certification Target conflicts with partners: Humanitarian interests vs. commercial interests Premium collection method J 36
65 Microinsurance - Challenges/ reinsurance services Risk analysis and risk calculation: lack of data Balancing needs and possibilities Sustainable agreements with mainstream insurance industry and governments Language used on the policy Administration and control Lack of culture of risk reduction and mitigation J 37
66 Microinsurance - Challenges/ reinsurance services Reinsurance Services Underwriting expertise Access to international experience and resources Risk Share Financial capacity Nat Cat protection Long-term stability Solvency relief J 38
67 Conclusions Increasing effects of climate change on societies and economies cannot be solely tackled by individual countries. The MR Group contributes to political discussion by profound expert know-how and vast experience in climate change and related risk management-mechanisms. Japan put climate-protection on top of the political agenda and co-leads the way in current climate-change-discussion. The MR Group continuously develops climate-change related reinsurance and insurance solutions. -> We would be very pleased to discuss options to cooperate with you and your companies in this high-potential-segment. J 39
68 Thank you very much for your kind attention! 40
69 ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ (MCII) 設立 MCII は 2005 年 4 月 ミュンヘン再保険により設立 保険ソリューションが 国連気候変動枠組条約および京都議定書で提案された気候変動への適用を支援できるという可能性を認識し始めたため 加盟メンバー イニシアチブのもとに 気候変動リスクに対するソリューションを探る保険会社 気候変動や適応策の専門家 NGO 政策研究者を一堂に集めた MCII は 気候変動の影響問題に関して保険の専門知識を話し合うためのフォーラムや集会の場を提供 加盟メンバーは 保険 再保険業界 気候変動およびその適応に関する専門家 NGO など さまざまな団体に門戸が開かれている E4
70 ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ (MCII) 特徴 気候変動の影響を大きく受ける人たちのための国際的枠組み および官民による保険メカニズムを扱う認定非営利団体 E5
71 ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ (MCII) 目的 も 4 つの目的 気候変動による影響に取り組むための保険ソリューションを促進 既存の団体やプログラムを通じて 保険ソリューションを適用するための試験的プロジェクトを支援 実行 ほかの団体やイニシアチブと協力して 保険ソリューションを促進 気候変動が原因で発生する自然災害による損害を削減する対策を特定 促進 E7
72 ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ (MCII) 設立の理由 気候変動により 近年 自然災害の発生頻度や深刻さが増している 世界のいたるところで 自然災害の発生頻度や深刻さが増している 新しいエクスポージャー 天候関連の自然災害により 経済的 社会的 環境的な損失をもたらす 多くの人々の生命 健康 財物に著しい影響気候変動は特に 世界の貧困者層に多大な影響を及ぼしている E9
73 ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ (MCII) 設立の理由 気候変動に適応するためには どのような戦略が効果的か? 保険メカニズムは 気候変動に適応するための効果的な戦略 地球温暖化による影響を防止し 増加する自然災害の金融的リスクを削減する E10
74 ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ (MCII) 提案 RISK MANAGEMENT MODULE リスクマネジメント Insurance Pillar 保険 The two-tiered insurance pillar Prevention Pillar TIER 1 Climate Insurance Pool 第 1の層気候保険プール TIER 2 第 2の層小規模 大規模な保険システムの支援 Support for micro and macro insurance systems 防止 Meets the principles set out by the UNFCCC Provides assistance to the most vulnerable, and mainly High Layer RISK 高いリスク Middle Layer RISK Low Layer RISK Premiums paid by AF ($5 bn) Support financed by AF ($2 bn) 中程度のリスク Support financed by AF ($3 bn) 低いリスク Rough estimated annual costs: E16
75 ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ (MCII) 提案 高いリスクの低減 ( 気候保険プール ) には いくら必要か? 天候関連の自然災害による年間の経済損失額 : 1000 億ドル ( 世界のGDP 48 兆ドルの0.2%) 発展途上国の損害率 : 世界の損害の7% = 70 億ドル地球温暖化の起因率 : 約 30% 地球温暖化による発展途上国の年間経済損失額 : 1000 億ドル x 7% x 30% = 21 億ドル ( ミュンヘン再保険および外部の専門家による概算 ) E17
76 ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ (MCII) 提案 第一の層である気候保険プールは 国際社会によって協議されるべき なぜなら 地球温暖化による発展途上国の予測経済損失額と気候保険プールを切り離して考えることはできないから 発展途上国の大規模自然災害 (100 年に 1 回発生するような ) による損害のトップ 30% をカバーする気候保険プール (CIP) に必要な金額は ( 概算 ): 1) 経済損失のトップ 30% の補償額 ( 官民による ) は 27 億 ~36 億ドルと予測 保険損害は多くて 100~500 億ドル 補償額は プールの保険料収入によって異なる 2) 再保険の資本 管理コストを含む保険スキームに必要な年間コストは 上記金額を考慮すると 約 32 億 ~51 億ドルと予測 ( ミュンヘン再保険および外部の専門家による概算 ) E18
77 マイクロファイナンスとは マイクロファイナンスとは ( 先進国よりも ) 経済事情が悪いという理由で 伝統的な金融システムから除外されている顧客に 金融サービスを提供する活動 E24
78 マイクロインシュランスとは さまざまな保険商品の複雑性 複雑 - 農作物保険 - 健康 傷害保険 - 年金 基金 ( 退職金など ) - 財物保険 - 定期生命保険 ( 死亡に対する受益者への支払い ) 単純 E27
79 マイクロインシュランスとは 成功のカギとなる要因 貧困層の救済のため マイクロインシュランスは リスク防止の対応策 理解しやすい 手頃な価格 すぐに利用できる 近辺で入手できる もしくは 信頼できる人や流通経路 ( 地元の銀行やサービス提供者 小売店 銀行など ) から入手できる E28
80 マイクロインシュランスとは マイクロインシュランス センターによる 2007 度の調査 最貧国 100 カ国にマイクロインシュランスが提供されている 最貧国 100 カ国で 7800 万人がマイクロインシュランスのカバーを提供されている 357 のマイクロインシュランス関連商品 ( 政府による社会保障スキームを除く ) 116 の社会保障スキーム 246 のマイクロインシュランス提供者 ( 政府による社会保障提供を除く ) 世界の貧困層のためのマイクロインシュランスの成長率は高い 特に民間提供者の成長率が著しい 調査対象のマイクロインシュランス提供者は 将来に対して前向きで 2010 年度の成長率は少なくとも 10% 5 年間で 100% と予測 E29
81 マイクロインシュランスミュンヘン再保険の活動と実例 ミュンヘン再保険 マイクロインシュランスは 2007 年 3 月より トップ イニシアチブ および損害保険 13 イニシアチブの一つとなっている ERGO すでにインドで マイクロインシュランスを販売している 中国では マイクロインシュランス イニシアチブの準備段階 E32
82 マイクロインシュランスミュンヘン再保険の活動と実例 MILA (Microinsurance for Latin America) Colombia ミュンヘン再保険 スラメリカーナ 女性のための世界銀行 ブカラマンガ との共同プロジェクトで コロンビアのマイクロ企業家のために 生命 財物マイクロインシュランスを開発 死亡 重病 火災 自然災害に対する保険カバー 2006 年に生命保険 および 2007 年に損害保険を販売開始 生命保険 : 約 名の顧客が保険を購入 この数はブカラマンガ全顧客の約 50% に相当 ベネズエラ CESAP と Multinacional de Seguros との協力で 3 つのマイクロインシュランス商品を開発 保険販売のための試験的プロジェクトを開始 その後 国全体で展開 E33
83 マイクロインシュランス課題 / 再保険サービス 課題 取引コストが高い : 多くの人から少額の保険料を徴収 一般的な保険課題 : モラル ハザード 逆選択 詐欺行為など 制度的 規制枠組みの詰めの甘さ 政治的恣意性や公的資格の不備 目標の不一致 : 人道的利益 vs 商業的利益 保険料徴収方法 E36
84 マイクロインシュランス課題 / 再保険サービス リスクの分析 算出 : データ不足 ニーズと可能性のバランス 保険業界と政府との持続可能な合意 保険約款で使用される用語 管理 コントロール リスクを低減 緩和するという文化の欠如 E37
85 マイクロインシュランス課題 / 再保険サービス 再保険サービス リスク引き受けの専門知識 国際的経験や資源をもつ再保険業界にアクセス リスクの共有 金銭的なキャパシティ 自然災害の防止 長期にわたる安定性 ソルベンシー ( 保険金支払い能力 ) 負担の軽減 E38
86 結論 気候変動が社会や経済に及ぼす影響の増加に対して 一国で立ち向かうことはできない ミュンヘン再保険グループは 気候変動における専門的知識 幅広い経験 リスク管理手段によって 政治レベルでの討議を促進する 日本は気候保全を政治課題のトップに上げており 現在 各国と共同で気候変動に関する論議を実施している ミュンヘン再保険グループは 今後も気候変動関連の再保険 保険商品を開発する 当社は ポテンシャルの高いこの分野で 皆さまとさまざまな可能性について話し合っていきたい E39
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