This concept was applied to all the individuals under study and it was possible to predict the future growth pattern on a single cephalogram. 2. Seria
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1 A PREDICATION OF THE CRANIOFACIAL GROWTH BY THE USE OF SERIAL CEPHALOGRAMS By Koji SHINODA, Masao TAMOGAMI, Takanari YOSHIOKA, Joji SATO, Hiroshi KAINO, Shigeru Toshio NISHIOKA SUZUKI, Shinichi NISHIYAMA and Shoichi ANDO Department of Radiology, Nihon University School of Dentistry, Tokyo, Japan (Director : Prof. Shoichi Ando) The problems connected with the development and growth of man constitute a very important research subject not only in the realm of medicine, but also in that of dentistry. In particular, the craniofacial growth has very vital bearings on various functions and features, and an adequate predication of the craniofacial growth furnishes a valuable diagnostic information for the orthodontic and pedodontic specialists. In 1969, the authors successfully developed an automatic analytical system of the roentgen cephalograms by an application of specturum electroic computer and its peripheral equipments. By this system, it is possible to select various measurement points through visual confirmation and analyze automatically the profilograms thus obtained. In the present study, this automatic analytical system was appled to 30 specific individuals in an effort to ascertain whether or not it would be possible to predict from their serial cephalograms the expected values for the lateral contours of the face at the age of 17. For prescribed purposes, changes revealed in 6 cephalograms, taken of an individual for 6 consecutive years, were utilized as serial data and as the basis for a predicition of the craniofacial contour at the age of 17. The following salient findings were obtained : 1. Serial profilograms, covering he ages from 6 to 11 years, revealed an average growth pattern in the craniofacial region. Linear regression analysis was applied to the measurement of the annual growth changes to obtain the linear gradients of male and female which were the mean directional coefficients.
2 This concept was applied to all the individuals under study and it was possible to predict the future growth pattern on a single cephalogram. 2. Serial data, taken from subjects of 6 to 11 years, were used to derive the linear regression. By extending this line, it proved possible to plot predictive profilograms at the age of The orbits of measurement points incidental to the growth were classified into four types i) straight type, ii) vacillatory type, iii) semillunar type, and iv) sigmoid type. 4. The directional coefficients obtained from the linear regression were classified as i) inferior front, and ii) bi-directional type. 5. In the relationship of the body to craniofacial region, were observed in which the girdle of chest exceeded the setting height in subjectes over 12 years old. With these cases, it was observed that the craniofacial growth assumed an inferior front direction and at the same time the growth orbit belonged to sigmoid type, as classified above. 6. Agreement between the expected and actual values was nearly 70%. This is based on data in which the growth measurement in 12 out of 17 cases. rate. at age 15 was found to be on the linear regression Moreover, 9 of the cases were within the range of expected from the mean growth
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9 3) N. R. Draper, H. Smith, Applied Regression Analysis, 1-46, 1966, John Wiley Sons, Inc, New York. London. Sydney. 4) George W. Snedecor, Statistical Method (Fifth Edition), ) Charles H. Tweed. Clinical Orthodontics Vol.1, 13-30, The C.V. Mosby Co. Saict Louis 1966.
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