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1 全国保証 7164 JP BNP パリバ証券株式会社鮫島豊喜 2016 年 11 月 4 日 BUY 7164 JP 4,900 円 4,265 円 +14.9% 4,900 円 UNCHANGED (%) EPS 2017 (%) EPS 2018 (%) % % Q 3 11bp OP NP ) 2) 3) 1) AI 1) 2) 1) 10 2) ZH % BUY 8 1 年度末 3 月 ( 十億円 ) 2017 予 2017 会 2018 予 2019 予 売上高 営業利益 従来の営業利益 経常利益 当期純利益 EPS ( 円 ) P/E ( 倍 ) 配当利回り (%) EV/EBITDA ( 倍 ) Price/book ( 倍 ) 純負債 / 株主資本 (%) (204.1) - (195.9) (189.2) ROE (%) Nov-15 4,600 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct , , , ,800 (10) (JPY) (%) Rel to 株価パフォーマンス 1ヶ月 3ヶ月 12ヶ月 絶対 (%) 相対 (%) 0.9 (0.6) 20.7 時価総額 (100 万米ドル ) 2,842 過去 3ヵ月間の1 日平均売買高 (100 万米ドル ) 10.8 浮動株 (%) 60 大株主 Norges Bank Investment Management (1%) 過去 12ヵ月間の高値 / 安値 ( 円 ) 4,520/2,933 過去 3ヵ月のボラティリティ (%) 29.1 ADRティッカー - ADR 終値 ( 米ドル ) - 発行済み株式数 ( 百万株 ) 69 : FactSet ( ) BNP toyoki.sameshima@japan.bnpparibas.com Thomson One Bloomberg S&P Global FactSet APPENDIX BNP APPENDIX
2 7164 JP 1: 2QFY3/ Q 1Q 2Q 2Q 1H 1H 1H FY3/16 FY3/17 FY3/17 FY3/17 y-y chg q-q chg FY3/16 FY3/17 FY3/17 y-y chg FY3/16 FY3/17E y-y chg FY3/17E y-y chg P/L BNPPe % % BNPPe % BNPPe % Co E % 6,561 6,847 7,464 7, ,558 14,311 13, ,918 36, , NA ,353 1, ,800 1, NA NA NA NA NA ,131 1, ,381 2, , ,213 1,409 1,418 1, ,483 2,827 2, ,412 6, , ,244 1,715 2, ,641 3,959 4, ,793 8, , ,007 4,603 5,749 5, ,916 10,352 9, ,125 28, , ,153 4,947 5,926 5, ,304 10,873 9, ,303 29, , ,153 4,539 5,892 5, ,304 10,431 9, ,303 29, ,104 3,002 4,047 3, ,839 7,049 6, ,204 19, , B/S 115, , , , , , , , , ,102 13,414 12,269 11, ,401 12,269 11, ,989 12, ,343 15,269 15,007 17, ,410 15,007 17, ,368 15, ,985-7,589-6,658-7,074 NA NA -6,983-6,658-7,074 NA -6,802-7,549 NA 140, , , , , , , , , ,916 58,562 66,600 58, ,999 66,600 58, ,143 73, , , , , , , , , , ,268 13,784 14,057 14, ,939 14,057 14, ,476 14, ,638 8,052 7,564 9, ,533 7,564 9, ,006 9, ,983 24,487 25,693 27, ,955 25,693 27, ,071 29, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,398 73,455 77,530 77, ,870 77,530 77, ,057 90, , , , , , , , , , KPI 43,690 65,663 59,426 54, , , , , , ,578 17,595 18,882 17, ,899 36,477 32, ,228 73, , (10 ) ,502 1, (10 ) 8,994 10,227 10,439 10, ,527 10,439 10, ,000 11, , (10 ) (%) EPS ( ) BPS ( ) , , , , , , , DPS ( ) : BNP 2 BNP
3 7164 JP ( ) ( ) (7.1) (6.8) (8.2) (9.2) (10.3) (0.0) (0.0) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (9.0) (9.1) (9.2) (9.9) (11.0) * EBITDA ( ) ( ) 1 (EPS) (%) EBITDA (%) (%) (%) EPS (%) ( ) (%) EBITDA (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ( ) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a (ROIC %) (81.6) (90.5) (104.7) (100.5) (99.0) (ROIC %) ROE (%) ROA (%) * : BNP 3 BNP
4 7164 JP ( ) (8.3) (7.8) (16.8) (14.5) (15.9) (29.9) (29.9) (7.1) (2.1) (3.3) (3.8) (4.4) (4.8) (0.3) (2.3) (3.3) (3.8) (4.4) (4.8) (9.4) (9.4) ( ) (102.7) ( ) (29.7) (27.1) (29.1) (31.8) (34.8) ( ) , , , , , , , ,856.4 (%) (238.1) (225.0) (204.1) (195.9) (189.2) (%) (67.3) (70.8) (69.0) (69.6) (70.2) ( ) CF ( ) 35.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a PER ( )* PER ( )* PER ( ) (%) (P CF ) (P FCF ) (41.5) PBR ( ) ( ) EV EBITDA ( ) EV EBITDA ( ) EV ( ) * : BNP 4 BNP
5 7164 JP APPENDIX, BNP, , toyoki.sameshima@japan.bnpparibas.com i ii BNP Paribas Securities Corp NYSE FINRA FINRA BNP BNP BNP Paribas Securities Corp US NASD 2711 BNP BNP Securities Corp BNP BNP 全国保証 7164 JP 2, 3, 4 BNP N/A N/A N/A N/A 1. BNP Paribas Securities KoreaCo.Ltd(BNPPSK) 2. BNPPSK BNPPSK (Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act) BNPPSK BNPPSK 1 6. The Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act BNPPSK 7. BNPPSK 40 5 BNP
6 7164 JP 8. BNPPSK KONEX BNPPSK (7164 JP) Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 (JPY) Zenkoku Hosho Target Price Date Rating Target price Date Rating Target price Date Rating Target price 01-Feb-16 Buy 4, Jun-16 Buy 4, Aug-16 Buy 4, : :, BNP / 7164 JP JPY 4,265 Buy 4,900 ROE PBR ROE PBR BPS 1) 2) 3) M&A : FactSet BNP 6 BNP
7 7164 JP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP BNP Paribas Securities Japan Limited BNP BNP BNP BNP 60 Castlereagh Street Sydney NSW 2000 ABN BNP 1959 AFSL ASIC G 761GA BNP Paribas Securities Asia Limited BNP Paribas Securities Asia Limited BNP BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Limited (address: 63/F Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong; tel: ; fax: ) BNP Paribas Securities India Pvt.Ltd BNPPSIPL 5 th floor BNP Paribas House 1 North Avenue Maker Maxity BandraKurla Complex Bandra East Mumbai ,INDIA / , Fax BNPPSIPL SEBI INH NSE NSE SEBI INB/INF/NSF/NSE INB/INF ; CIN: PT BNP Paribas Securities Indonesia / PT BNP Paribas Securities Indonesia Menara BCA, 35th Floor, Grand Indonesia, Jl. M.H.Thamrin No.1, Jakarta, 10310, Indonesia BNP SA Capital Market Law No. 8 of 1995 Capital Market and Financial Institutions Supervisory Agency ( Otoritas Jasa Keuangan/OJK) PT BNP Paribas Securities Indonesia Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) BNP Paribas Capital Malaysia SdnBhd BNP Paribas Capital Malaysia SdnBhd BNP Paribas Capital Malaysia SdnBhd BNP Paribas Capital Malaysia SdnBhd i ii BNP OBU BNP BNP OBU No.1034 PD1034 PD1034 OBU PD1034 BNP Paribas Securities Singapore Pte Ltd BNPPSSL Accredited InvestorInstitutional InvestorFinancial Advisers Regulations FAR Securities and Futures Act 289 BNPPSSL FAR 35 Financial Advisers Act 36 7 BNP
8 7164 JP BNPPSSL (company registration number: C; address: 10 Collyer Quay, 34/F Ocean Financial Centre, Singapore ; tel: (65) ; fax: (65) ) BNP Paribas Securities South Africa Pty Ltd Financial Services Provider Financial Services BoardBNP Paribas Securities South Africa Pty Ltd 2002 Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 BNP Paribas Securities Korea Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act Financial Investment Business Entity Financial Supervisory Service Financial Services Commission Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes CISA Swiss Federal Ordinance on Collective Investment Schemes CISO Qualified Investor Swiss Corporate Customer BNP Paribas Suisse SA Swiss Federal Market Supervisory Authority FINMA No.CH BNP Paribas Suisse SA 2 place de Hollande CH-1204 Geneva BNP Paribas Securities Taiwan Co. Ltd BNP BNP Paribas Securities Taiwan Co. Ltd BNP BNP Paribas BNPP FinansiaSyrus Securities Public Company Limited FSS FSS International Investment Advisory Securities Co Ltd FSSIABNP PARIBAS/FSS BNPP FSSIA FSS FSS FINANSIA SYRUS FSSIA FSS BNP TEB Investment (TEB Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S., Teb Kampus D Blok Saray Mah. Kucuksu Cad. Sokullu Sok., No: Umraniye, Istanbul, Turkey, Trade register number:358354, TEB Investment BNP TEB Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. TEB Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. TEB Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. TEB Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. U.S. person major U.S. institutional investors a-6 BNP Paribas Securities Corp BNP Paribas Securities Corp FINRASIPC NFA NYSE eligible counterparty professional client retail client MiFID 2004/39/EC BNP SA BNP BNP SA 16 boulevard des Italiens Paris BNP 10 Harewood Avenue London NW1 6AA[44 20] ECB ACPR Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution PRA Prudential Regulation Authority Financial Conduct Authority BNP investment services provider 16 Boulevard des Italiens Paris FranceBNP BaFin Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht BNP Paribas Niederlassung Frankfurt am Main BNP BNP
9 7164 JP * BUY B 10 HOLD H 10 REDUCE R * / Improving 12 / Stable ( Neutral ) 12 / Deteriorating 12 Overweight O 12 2 Neutral N 12 1 Underweight U BNPパリバのカバレッジ ユニバース 461 (%) Buy 266 (57.7%) Buy Hold 134 (29.1%) Hold Reduce 61 (13.2%) Reduce BNP BNP ( ) BNP Paribas Group 9 BNP
ANA 9202.T 9202 JP EQUITY: ,300 Buy 4 5 Buy QUICK 1, , PBR PER 20 RN Large Cap ,
ANA 9202.T 9202 JP EQUITY: 16.3 1,300 Buy 45 Buy45 7.6 16.3 QUICK 1,221 40 1,284 410 16.3 PBR 1.7 17.3 PER 20 RN Large Cap 16 16.3 46 64 1,284 46 61 64 8.0 1.5 13 6.716.3 12.2 12.3 0.4 4.8 25 20 1 8 15/3
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/ Global Markets Research 217 1 18 212 216 11 8 12 3 3 5 5 2 3 5 - NSC sayuri.otsuka@nomura.com +81 3 673 1397 - NSC yasuhiro.shimizu@nomura.com +81 3 673 1748 16 3 5 1 1: % / % / 8 4 4 2 4 2 8 16 86 4
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() Global Markets Research 2019 1 21 () - NSC - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com +81 3 6703 3986 ( )() ()( )ROE( )( ) 5 (5%) Production Complete: 2019-01-21 06:55 UTC Appendix A-1 Nomura 2019 1 21 1.... 3 1.1...
世界経済の見通しと政策課題
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NOMURA () Global Markets Research NOMURA 2016 6 3 NOMURA - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com +81 3 6703 3986 饗 - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com +81 3 6703 3986 - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com +81 3 6703 3986 Appendix A-1
1 2 3
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NOMURA () Global Markets Research NOMURA NOMURA 2016 10 13 - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com +81 3 6703 3986 - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com +81 3 6703 3986 饗 - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com +81 3 6703 3986 - NSC idx_mgr@jp.nomura.com
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