2
1 WTO 8400 (2005 ) (regionalization)(globalization) ASEAN (AFTA)ASEAN (FTA WTO WTO 2006 11 2007 1 AFTA 2006 ASEAN FTA 2005 7 2015 2001 WTO (FDI) FDI WTO FDI II III WTO IV 1. 35 80 ASEAN 111
80 2-1- 50 2-1-1 2002 45 60 40 2-1-2 112
2-1-2 %) SITC code 1998 2002 2003 1. 31.1 21.3 19.2 1a. (0,1,4,22) 29.5 19.2 17.0 1b. 0.0 0.0 0.0 (21,23-26,29, 266) 1.6 2.1 2.2 2. 16.0 21.9 20.1 2a. (27,28) 0.3 0.3 0.4 2b. (3) 15.5 21.4 19.5 2c. (68) 0.2 0.1 0.2 3. 52.9 56.9 60.7 3a. 1.0 1.1 1.6 3a1. (67) 0.1 0.1 0.3 3a2. (5) 0.9 1.0 1.4 3b. 8.1 7.5 8.3 3b1. (71) 0.3 0.7 0.6 3b2. (72,74) 0.4 1.1 1.2 3b3. (75,76) 1.0 1.2 1.8 3b4. (77) 6.0 3.8 3.6 3b5. (78,79) 0.4 0.8 1.2 3c. 43.9 48.2 50.7 3c1. (65,84) 16.3 17.2 21.1 3c2. (85) 17.9 18.8 16.9 3c3. (82) 2.3 3.8 4.5 3c4. (83) 2.3 2.0 1.9 3c5. 0.0 0.0 0.0 (266,61-64,66,8,931 82-85) 5.1 6.4 6.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 : 1998 2002 10 2004 1 i i 1 200680 1999 113
i = X-MX+M X M i 2-1-3 2-1-3 i=(x-m)/(x+m) X:, M: 2 114
3 2. 2005 7 9 (JBIC) 2005 11 4 27.7 9.5 18.1 9.8 8 10.3JBIC 2006 11 3 115
5 2 2000 40-50 WTO 3 3. 1990 90 80 1989 97 90 90 90 2002 6 52 7 2 Thoi bao kinh te Saigon, 2006 10 5 3 Gfk Asia 2006 24 2007 30 2010 50 Thoi bao kinh te Saigon, 2006 10 5 116
1998 2000 150 ( 200 ) 60 2000 8 9 18 5000 11 2002 110 52 7 4 4 42 28 117
2-1-4 10 6 60 ( ) 2001 40 17 2002 10 20 3050 ( 2-1-4) 2002 60 2002 39 VEAM30 1996 3 97 118
3 ABC A B A 2002 30( 70)B 2003 28 C 2003 13 2006 18 100 2-1-4 1998 5 2006 18 1998 8 13 100 2 100 FDI WTO 4.WTO WTO 1995 WTO 26 2 2006 11 7 WTO 150 2007 1 11 5 5 2006 12 19 119
WTO 6 17.4 13.4% 3 12 5 16.8 12.6 23.5 20.9 1 48.7 WTO 19.9 45 27 34.6 22.3 29.8 18.3 2 10 25 3 74.4 58.7 100 72.2 WTO WTO TRIM (Permanent Normal Trade Relations ( PNTR) (unconditional MFN) 2001 12 10 WTO PNTR 6 WTOThoi bao kinh te Saigon2006 11 9 World Bank (2006) World Bank (2006) 120
WTO 2001 TRIM WTO 5. (1) WTO WTO AFTA ASEAN FTA WTO A. B. C. D. E A,B,C ABC ASEAN 121
FDIASEAN E 7 2005 JBIC 4 1 2 8 2 2 9 (2) FDI FDI 1987 FDI 1990 FDI 1996 7 Tran (2006) 8 1990 5 9 JBIC 2006 3 2 2006 122
FDI 99 2000 5 2003 3 2005 2006 2003 FDI 2006 WTO FDI FDI 90 2004 2006 2-1-5 2-1-5 123
FDI JBIC 2003 2004 11 2 2004 12 19 FDI 2-1-6 FDI 3 2-1-6 100 2005 FDI( 1,738 2389 4722 40633 25869 1 224 437 600 6290 4669 2 124 164 403 7611 3621 3 340 592 1064 5338 2591 4 453 367 1422 7769 2831 5 48 33 62 1996 1924 6 198 408 360 3728 1986 8 7 24 164 2171 1188 9 84 172 184 1571 840 10 75 157 265 1455 747 11 5 28 130 1456 804 12 180 6 68 1248 636 2,222 4268 6030 51018 27986 124
JBIC WTO FDI FDI 125
2 1986 () 2007 1 11 WTO WTO 1 2 3 WTO 1. 1986 12 1988 1 1990 1991 1999 WTO 1 Yui and Phan (2006) 127
VAT 1980 1990 1989 1990 1990 1999 1999 1999 3 1 1999 32 2 25 28-50 3 1999 2004 2004 2004 5 1 2004 28 2 2004 3 128
4 2-2- 2 1990 2000 25 3 2-2-1 1991 2003 3 129
2-2-2 70% 4 WTO 2-2-2 2006 4 2005 130
2-2-3 5 (TIN) () 6 2-2-3 131
2. 7 FDI 8 132
2004 2004 (Zee etc 2002 Fletcher 2002 and OECD 2001 133
9 3. 2004 1 164/2003/ND-CP 152/2004/ND-CP 10 2006 7 1 2006 9 22 108/2006/ND-CP 11 28 201510 10 12 15 12 AB 13 A I. IT II. III. R&DIV. V. VI. 13 134
VII. I. IT II. III. R&DIV. V. VI. VII. VIII. B 14 2004 2000 2000 7 31 24/2000/ND-CP2003 3 19 27/2003/ND-CP 164/2003/ND-CP 152/2004/ND-CP 2-2-4 135
136
2007 2 14 164/2003/ND-CP 152/2004/ND-CP 24/2007/ND-CP 15 WTO 2007 2007 WTO 2007 1 11 2011 108/2006/ND-CP 2-2-5 16 15 16 137
1 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 20 10 2 6 2 5 15 12 3 2 7 5 6 10% 15 4 2 9 5 7 8 10 4 9 10% 15 4 2 9 5 2005 Decree 108/2006/ND-CP 28 138
17 (1) (2) (3) WTO 139
MPI 18 MPI 2-2-6 2005 29 108/2006/ND-CP 2-2-6 3,000 VND 3,000 VND MPI 1 140
2 3 19 2-2-7 FDI19882006 20 19 2004 10 19 Decision 183/2004/QD-TTG 60GDP 10 141
20 65 85 FDI 100 FDI 2-2-8 1988 2005 142
90 Daukhi 25.8 2-2-9 22 20 15 GDP 40 20 GDP 1700 290 2-2-7 2-2-10 FDI 2000 2005 FDI FDI FDI 20 143
67 2 FDI 144
2006 2002Vietnam News SMEs fail to meet great expectations 3 July 2004 96%GDP 26% 6.4% 21 35.8% 24.3% 16.6% 55% 17% 14%14% 22 2001 11 23 //ND-CP //ND-CP 1 3 100 300 20 200 2006 GDP 25% 26 23 2010 50 270 180 1 24 //ND-CP 25 145
2002 26 2-2-11 5 5-10 10-50 50-100 100-500 500-2000 2000-5000 5000 8 30-50 20-30 5 205-10 10-50 10 IT 27 146
FDI WTO WTO 2007 1 11 150 2010 2004 12 2008 Yui Yuji and Phan Hong Phuc 2006 World Bank 2004 Zee etc 2004 WTO 147
148
Decree 24/2007/ND-CP 2007 2 14 2006 Decree 24/2007/ND-CP Decree 24/2007/ND-CP 1 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 4 5 20 10 2 6 2 15 12 3 2 7 5 6 10% 15 4 2 9 5 7 8 10 4 9 10% 15 4 2 9 5 2005 Decree 108/2006/ND-CP 28
Decree 24/2007/ND-CP WTO i) 2007 ii) 2007 iii) WTO 2007111 2011 20052006922 Decree 108/2006/ND-CP 20061025 Decree 24/2007/ND-CP i) 200445 Decision 53/2004/QD-TTg ii) iii) 20001120 Decision 128/2000/QD-TTg
iii) Decision 128/2000/QD-TTg 2005 2006 9 8 3328/TCT-PCCS ii) i) Decision 53/2004/QD-TTg 10 Decree 24/2007/ND-CP 10 15 Decree24/2007/ND-CP Decision 53/2004/QD-TTg Decree 24/2007/ND-CP Decision 53/2004/QD-TTg 10 Decree 24/2007/ND-CP WTO 2005 11 11 3 5 2011
2000 7 31 2003 3 19 2003 12 22 2004 8 6 2006 9 22 2007 2 14 2000 8 1 2003 5 7 2004 1 7 2004 8 29 2006 10 25 15 Decree 24/2000/ND-CP 15% 2 3 Decree 27/2003/ND-CP 15% 2 Decree 164/2003/ND- CP Decree 152/2004/ND- CP Decree 108/2006/ND- CP 2 2 15% 12 3 7 15% 12 3 7 Decree 24/2007/ND-CP 15% 12 3 7 Decree 164/2003/ND- CP Decree 27/2003/ND-CP 15 15 3 7
3 1. 1976 1986 6 1988 1 1990 1996 2000 7 2005 3 2 2000 2 2003 22 2006 11 68 2006 7 200 1 WTO 2006 7 M&A 1 ATM 153
2. (1)SBVState Bank of Vietnam 1951 2 1998 Industrial and Commercial Bank of Vietnam Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development1990 1997 (2)(SOCBState-Owned Commercial Bank) 1001999 IMF BIDVBank for Investment and Development of Vietnam 1957 1995 90 154
2007 VBARDVietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development 1988 1996 VCBBank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam 1963 Vietcom Bank 1989 2005 2006 2010 51 ICBIndustrial and Commercial Bank of Vietnam 1988 90 1990 2007 (3) JSBJoint Stock Bank JSB 1990 1999 1999 52 2004 35 26 JSB 155
JSB 2-3-1 TBKTSG2005 9 4 VID BIDV VCB ICB VBARD CP 1991 2006 9 28 156
1989 2-3-2 4 Source:IMF Country Report Vietnam No.02/5(jun 2002), IMF Country Report Vietnam No.03/382(Dec 2003) ODA 157
JICA CGFCredit Guarantee Funds 3 3. (1) 90 90 1999 2 26 0.1 2002 7 0.252006 12 0.5 2-3-3 WTO 158
2005 1 IMF (2) SBV2000 8 2002 6 2 2002 6 2-3-4 2 1998 14.4% 1999 12.7%2000 10.5%2001 9.4% IMF 159
3 12 3 IMF 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2004 2005 2-3-5 3 2007 2 4.85% 8.4% 3.55% 2007 3 160
GDP 20062007 IMF IMF 2006 2007 4.WTO 2007 1 WTO M&A 161
M&A 2007 1 100% CITIBANKHSBCWTO 4 (1) 1 1 2007 3 5 6 2000 1990 ATM 2002 ATM 2002 1996 2001 5 2 5 3 300% 350 7 2006 ATM( 2-3-6) 4 2010 5 6 2006 10 72.9% 2005 1.26%BIDV 1.22% 1.56% 23~35% VIET.JOhttp://viet-jo.com/ 7 VIET.JOATM 350 http://viet-jo.com/ 162
2-3-6 ATM 2007 2006 9 15 WTO ATM (2) 1999 2007 1 Bao Minh CMG Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company of VietnamLimited 163
2005 M&A Bao Minh CMG 1999 5 2004 5 8 1999 4 2001 224 60% 2 2005 8000 VND5 300 US$ 2 2 Bao Minh CMG (3) WTO APEC VN Index () 2006 9 500 APEC WTO 800 8 2004 1 40.19%2 39.63%3 11.58%4 AIA5.95%5 Bao Minh CMG 2.66% 164
2006 5. (2006 ) (1) 1 UFJ 3 2-3-7 2006 9 UFJ 2 Fax (2) ATM( 165
) 9 (3) 10 FAX FAX Overdraft() 11 12 9 ATMVISA ATMPLUSMasterATM CirrusATMPLUSCirrus ATM 10 OS PCOSPC 12 166
ATM 167
4 1986 1997 2000 2005 8.42006 7.6 2000 7 1998 618 50 200 30 150 2001 11 23 Decree of the government on supporting of Small and Medium EnterprisesDecree 90/2001/CP-ND 3 300 100 169
300 2003 68,687 95.4 2004 88,222 96.1 28.4 2-4- 3 2-4-1 2-4-2 2003 2-4-3 2004 170
2000 354 2004 577 4 1.6 2000 2004 4 2.3 2-4-4 2-4-4 2000 2004 83,188 2000 34,699 2.4 2-4-1 300 2003 63,009 2004 82,192 30.4 2004 50 90 2-4-32-4-4 2-4-5 2004 2000 2 2242004 1 21.8 2 10.4 3 9.62000 2004 171
2-4-5 2004 291 18 2010 50 2-4-1 Decree 90/2001/CP-ND90 2002 20042008 1 1 3 100 300 4 5 2 6 172
7 8 10 11 3 12 13 173
14 15 16 17 18 174
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4 2002 32 131 2001 12 15 2006 6 Vol.45(17-9)2006/3/29-178 -