UNWTO OD 2 FURUYA, Hideki 1 LCC 1 2 OD 1 2 OD 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 /1 GDP M. H. Mohd Hanafiah and M. F. Mohd Harun 12 GDP 1 13 Vol.15 No.4 2013 Winter 041
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4.1 GDP 1 GDP 2 Aj 56 10 3A j 12 1995200814 4a 3 4b GDPjGDPUS$ 20 j D ij ij P ij ij A j j n12 5 6 23GDP j GDP j /Dij D ij 2 HP 23 SSEGRG2 Generalized Reduced Gradient 19952008 80.51 4.2 GDP 4a4b 4a4b 2 GDP 32 OD 0.8GDP 2 2008 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1.192 1.201 1.220 1.284 1.210 1.252 1.237 1.218 1.388 1.334 1.302 1.291 1.266 1.269 SSE 0.293 29 25 39 44 18 0.283 05 26 37 22 17 0.289 26 0.048 0.050 0.047 0.049 0.050 0.048 0.814 0.793 0.796 0.802 0.788 0.807 0.827 0.815 0.828 0.818 0.820 0.821 0.831 0.807 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 SSE 22 59 58 95 69 49 26 44 02 89 62 51 08 39 0.053 0.053 0.056 0.054 0.053 0.056 0.056 0.054 0.053 0.049 0.794 0.772 0.774 0.767 0.771 0.788 0.800 0.790 0.787 0.790 0.797 0.802 0.820 0.799 1.262 18 0.050 0.812 0.001 55 0.053 0.789 044 Vol.15 No.4 2013 Winter
Vol.15 No.4 2013 Winter 045 1210 10.0 4 42122 97SARS 03 1995 121/Dij 3 SSE SSE/ 1/2 ij 139121126 5.0 5.367 SSE 4a 4.3 OD 3 3 4 1995 2000 2005 2008 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.2 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.4 y0.939x y0.939x R 2 0.808 0.808 y0.846x0.021 y0.846x0.021 R 2 0.835 0.835 y0.939x R 2 0.808 y0.846x0.021 R 2 0.835 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 FIFA FIFA SARS SARS VJC VJC '04'05 '04'05 FIFA SARS VJC '04'05
1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 SARS '97 '01 '03 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 51/Dij 0.082008 1/Dij 0.050.03OD 5.0 OD6 7OD 12 D ij 2008 758 1,313 1,330 1,823 1,880 2,869 3,312 3,338 3,612 3,656 4,863 5,493 1.269 0 0.50 9 3 2 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.09 0.08 1.388 2003 0 7 6 0 0.28 0.16 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.06 1.192 1995 0 0.52 0.51 5 4 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.11 0.09 5 () 11.8 11.3 11.2 9.8 9.8 8.5 7.9 7.4 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.3 9.5 9.9 1 13.8 15.0 3 5.1 5 2.5 1.52.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 046 Vol.15 No.4 2013 Winter
Vol.15 No.4 2013 Winter 047 2 12 SARS9 20 9.11 5.3 7 VJC 23 792008 A j 1/Dij '97 '98 FIFA '02 VJC'03 SARS'03 '05 '08 A jt1 13.7 3.6 3.2 11.9 10.7 4.5 10.9 16.4 7.7 2 A jt 13.3 3.8 3.3 12.9 10.9 4.3 13.0 14.8 6.2 19.1 - / 3 6 2 8 2 4 19 9 20 9 3 10 10 2 26 0 21 1 16 11 1.5 619952008 5 5.2 2 7 / 12 7 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0
7 8 9 6 ODUNWTO OD OD OD 12 2 4 VJC Vol.15 No.4 2013 Winter 048 0.0E00 5.0E05 E04 1.5E04 2.0E04 2.5E04 0 25 20 15 10 5 1/Dij Aj 32 5 4 22 22 10 10 5 5 10 10 5 5 1 1 1 1 3 3 22 10 5 10 5 1 1 3 0 25 20 15 10 5 0.0E00 5.0E05 E04 1.5E04 2.0E04 2.5E04 3.0E04 3.5E04 4.0E04 42 1/Dij 4 4 3 3 2 2 6 6 1 1 1 1 25 25 3 3 9 9 4 3 2 6 1 1 25 3 9 3 Aj 0 25 20 15 10 5 0.0E00 5.0E05 E04 1.5E04 2.0E04 2.5E04 3.0E04 1/Dij Aj 3 3 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 0 1 2 2 24 39 4 22 2
OD GDP OD 1 12007 Vol. 35CD- ROM 22010 Vol. 13No. 2pp. 14-23 32005 20 pp. 9-12 42008 Vol. 37CD-ROM 52011 Vol. 54pp. 55-64 62001 Vol. 4No. 1pp. 8-18 72007 Vol. 10 No. 1pp. 11-21 82010 Vol. 41CD-ROM 91998 102006 No. 50pp. 149-158 112007 Vol. 10No. 3pp. 2-10 12M. H. Mohd Hanafiah and M. F. Mohd Harun2010Tourism Demand in Malaysia: A cross-sectional pool time-series analysisinternational Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 80-83. 132000 14JNTO2003-2012 JNTO 152003-2012 16 JNTO2011 http://www.jnto.go.jp/jpn/tourism_data/global_tourism_trends.html 2012/3/15 172005 2005 188 19UNWTO1995-2008Yearbook of Tourism StatisticsUNWTO 20UN1995-2008National Accounts Main Aggregates Databaseonline http://unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm, 2012/2/19 212 222004 http://www.mlit.go.jp/road/ir/ yosoku/2012/9/23 232011 http://www.mlit.go.jp/kankocho/shisaku/kokusai/vjc.html2012/5/3 242005WTO pp. 219-264 25Klaysikaew KRAIRERK2012 Vol. 45CD-ROM Attraction Indexes Estimation of Asian Countries and Regions by Number of Foreign Tourists: Application of Inverse Method Using Destination Choice Ratios By Hideki FURUYA The purpose of this paper is to estimate the attraction indexes to identify the positions of Asian Countries and Regions in international tourism. Firstly, the probabilities of destination choice are calculated by the Origin-Destination matrices by the data of World Tourism Organization of United Nations from 1995 to 2008. Secondly, attraction indexes of each countries and regions are estimated by inverse problem of minimum of Sum of Squared Error between actual values and estimations by Huff model. It is possible to identify the trends of attraction indexes and to make a relative comparison by this analysis. It is also able to find the position of each countries and regions by positioning map for the identification of competition in Asian international tourism. Key Words : international tourism, Huff Model, attraction index, inverse problem Vol.15 No.4 2013 Winter 049