1 2004 12 2005 4 5 100 25 3 1 76
2 Demoskop 2 2004 11 24 30 7 2 10 1 2005 1 31 2 4 5 2 3-1-1 3-1-1 Micromediabanken 2005 1 507 1000 55.0 2 77
50 50 /CEO 36.3 37.4 18.1 3-2-1 43.0 34.4 / 17.6 3-2-2 78
79.4 20.6 3-2-3 75.2 24.8 3-2-4 50 47.0 51100 22.6 101200 13.3 201 17.0 3-2-5 79
36.8 3-2-6 70.6 10.2 3-2-7 1 59.6 14.1 3-2-8 1 80
33.8 10 101 22.7 3-2-9 1 84.9 1 75.0 3-2-10 81
82
3-2-11 30 27.5 40 25.6 50 23.1 20 14.7 60 9.2 30 3-2-12 49.5 37.6 10.2 2.6 3-2-13 83
2.2 3-2-14 3 15.7% 3-2-15 39.5% 14.0 9.2 6.5 6.1 3-2-16 40 61.6 3-2-17 84
46.7% 26.6%25.8% 3-2-18 2 2 36.7% 25.8%1 3 16% 3-2-19 2 85
46.9% 36.4% 15.3% 1.4 3-2-20 250,000-399,000 (3,750,000-5,999,000 ) 400,000 6,000,000 4 249,000 3,749,000 2 3-2-21 72.0 21.8 16.0% 22.0 12.0 56.2 3-2-22 86
87
20.4 32.7 1.7 1.5 3-3-1 28.0 22.8 36.4 33.5 40.3 1.7 1.5 1.5 3-3-2 88
84.6 80.2 76.3 71.0 50.0 43.6 38.4 33.3 3-3-3 30 96.2 98.7 21.7 13.1 49.5 62.5 3-3-4 8 9 3-3-5 3-3-6 89
90
7 3-3- 91
1 2 ( 3-3-8) ( 3-3-9) 92
= 70 = 70 10 3-3-10 93
43.6% 29.7 16.1% 4.0 6.6% 1.7 1.5 3-3-11 3-3-12 10 3-3-13 3-3-14 25.5 17.0 17.0 3-3-15 94
95
1980 20 50 90.8 90.0 24.0% 3-3-16 2 3-3-17 3-3-18 1 7 2 2 3 1 3-3-19 96
97
3-3-20 3-3-21 98
1 3-3-22 99
10.2 3-4-1 87.9 3-4-2 100
68.4 3 3.4 75.6% 55.9% 3-4-3 45.2 27.8 3-4-4 3-4-5 101
64.2 33.8 2.0 3-4-6 3-4-7 102
60.3 68.0 70.0 3-4-8 103
16.4 3-4-9 7.2 104
7.9 3-4-10 2.9 8.5 90 3-4-11 3-4-12 3-4-13 105
106
107
1 108
109
110
111
71.3% 64.9% 42.3% 3-6-1 72.0 18.1 9.5 0.4 3-6-2 112
86.3 65.4 3-6-3 88.3 73.4 3-6-4 113
99.0 95.8 3-7-1 1 8 ( 4 3 ) 27.1 7.4 40.2 3-7-2 4 114
52.6 20.2 100 86.8 67.9 87.8 63.9 3-7-3 24.3 3-7-4 115
116 ICT 42.6% 3-7-5 618% 776% 3-7-6 56.0% 40.5 3-7-7 49.4 3-7-8
117
94.3 3-7-9 32.1% 21.1% 14.6% 3-7-10 10 63.4 3-7-11 ICT 51.4 17.5 15.1 3-7-12 118
119
(1) 1 2 3-8-3 120
(2) 121
122
10 77.6 8 3-9-1 610 52.7 11 43.5 6 9 3-9-2 25 3-9-3 9.3 34.3 3-9-4 123
100 70% 3-9-5 70 3-9-6 124
8 9 3-9-7 71.7 12.9 3-9-8 125
58.9 43.5 40.4 39.2 3 126
40 41.2 32.7 1 3-9-9 53.4 1 2004 127
128 1 3-9-10
1 2 3 4 5 ()1 2 ()4 5 ()4 5 ()4 5 ()1 2 ()1 2 ()4 5 ()1 2 129
61.5% 3-10-1 4 2 3 3-10-2 130
3 2 2 3 3-10-3 131
9 8 86 353 132
22 321 H 0 H1 p 1 p2 H = : p p 0 1 2 : p p 0 1 2 H Fisher s Exact Test 1 0.64 10 0.138 0.174 Mantel-Haenszel Test 2 1 Conover (1999) Chapter 4 2 Conover (1999) Chapter 4 133
i H 0 : i = 1,,6 p = 1 i p2 i H 0 : i p > 1 i p2 i p < 1 i p2i 21 26 21 22 23 134
24 25 26 6 2 0.45 10% 2005 1 (1) 3 5 3 135
5 [ y z, z, z, s, l ] exp( α + α z + α z + α z + β ( s ) l + β s l ) E i 2i 3i 4i i i 1 2 2i 3 3i 4 4i 1 1 i i 2 = (1) i i yi z 2 =1 =0 i z 3 =1 =0 i z 4 =1 =0 i i s =1 =0 l =1,, =5 i α1 α 1 + α 2 α 1 + α 3 α 1 + α 4 α 2 α 3 α 4 β β 1 2 (2) 991 1000 991 989 794 1-1 1-2 0 2 2 0 2 0 0 2 136
11 12 607 595 9 8 2-1 2-2 2 137
21 22 (3) 1 (1) Hurdle model 0 4 4 Count data model 0 138
0 1 (2.1) (2.2) Pr Pr [ y 0 ] = ( 1+ µ ) 1 i = i 1i [, > 0] x i y i y i x (2.1) µ y i 1 2i x i = µ 2i 1+ µ (2.2) 2i ( z z, z, s, l ) = 2i, 3i 4i i i ( α11 + α12 z2i + α13z3i + α14 z4i + β11li 1sili ) ( α + α + α z + α z + β l s l ) µ + 1i exp γ i 21 22 z2i 23 3i 24 4i 21 i 2 µ 2 exp + γ i i (1) 5 3 3 0 5 Cameron and Trivedi (1998) Chapter 4 139
5% 3 5% (2.1) (2.1) 0 0 (2.2) [ y i x, y i > 0] = 1+ µ i E i 2 6 0 0 0 3 10% 6 Cameron and Trivedi (1998) Chapter 4 140
141 4 3. 2 3
Cameron A.C. and P.K. Trivedi (1998) Regression Analysis of Count Data, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Conover, W.J. (1999) Practical Nonparametric Statistics Third Edition, NY: John Wiley & Sons. 142
() () () () 143
() 8 4 9 8 1 1 1 2000 12 TCO 6 144
145 4 1 8 () A+ A- () () 4 3 39.7% 51.7 14 54 11
() () () 5-1 146
147 5-1 () () (