2009 21 2 0 8 0 4 7 16 4 20 10

17 11 =(2006) (1997) (2006) (2006) (2006) (2006) (2006) 1 16 4 20 10 1 3-1 -

1 3 2 3 4 5 6 25 25 201 1 (2008) - 2 -

20 17 11 17 1 2 21 18 3 29 205 98 3 1 http://www.mlit.go.jp/kisha/kisha05/07/071117_.html 2 http://home.yomiuri.co.jp/news/20051224hg01.htm 3 http://www.mlit.go.jp/kisha/kisha06/07/070329_.html - 3 -

4 18 3 31 164 88 164 22 18 5 25 6 14 18 6 21 18 92 19 6 20 5 6 4 (2006) 5 5 http://www.mlit.go.jp/kisha/kisha06/07/070330_3/00.pdf 6 (2007) 9 16 72 74-4 -

7 6 5 6 2 3 18 4 18 2 14 6 8 6 2 5 18 2 6 11 6 2 8 18 10 18 2 21 35 7 (2007) 12-5 -

8 2 1 4 13 9 500 20 4 4 13 9 500 9 10 8 (2007) 23 9 18 4 28 10-6 -

11 18 12 3-1 3-1 X2 X1 S D D' D D'X X2 13 11 (2007) 6 5 12 (2007) 88 13 N. Gregory Mankiw (2004) (2005) 655-7 -

14 3-2 D' D X2 X1 15 3-2 X2 X1 S D D' Miller(1993) 3-3 S S' X2 X3 16 14 (2007) 10 15 16 3-3 DS' 3-2 D'S - 8 -

3-3 X3 X2 S' S D D' 3-4 S S' X1 X3 3-4 S' S D X3 X1 18 63 19 20 1 11 17 17 http://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/joho04_hh_000055.html - 9 -

2 3 12 20 19 16 8,918 18 19 3-2 3-3 2 18 (a) 18 18 0 1-10 -

(b) (a)ln()=1+2 +3 +4X1it+1it (b)ln()=1+2 +3 +4X2it+i2it 14,14 X 12 i t 15 17 12 19 http://www.mlit.go.jp/statistics/details/jutaku_list.html - 11 -

18 6 1 0 101 3 (2)(3)(5) 16 4 17 11 0 12 11 19 7 1 19 6 0 (2)(3)(5) 20 11 11 14 21 5,288 288 213 70 65 12 22-12 -

23 2004 2008 3.3 12 2 1 23 20 http://www.stat.go.jp/data/idou/5.htm 24 20 http://tochi.mlit.go.jp/chika/chousa/2008/15.html 25 26 http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/kenmin/h17/main.html http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/sna/kenmin/h18/main.html - 13 -

3 4 27 0.750.5 0.250 28 http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/stat/shouhi/2008/0810honbun.pdf http://www.esri.cao.go.jp/jp/stat/shouhi/2008/0804honbun.pdf 17-14 -

0 Tobit Model Hausuman test 4-1 4-2 (1) Tobit (2) Tobit -0.175 0.161 (0.185) (0.252) - -0.211 (0.366) - -0.766** (0.321) (3) Tobit 0.067 (0.246) -0.273 (0.361) -0.417 (0.317) - 15 -

-1.880*** (0.248) -1.628*** (0.269) -1.845*** (0.271) - 0.163 (0.258) 0.134 (0.262) - -1.016*** (0.229) -0.679*** (0.228) ln() 2.607*** (0.103) 2.405*** (0.113) 2.662*** (0.153) ln() -0.908** (0.428) -0.403 (0.434) 0.161 (0.525) ln() 1.065*** (0.165) 1.001*** (0.169) 0.278 (0.286) ln( -1.479*** (0.513) -1.662*** (0.516) 0.774 (0.716) 0.007 (0.024) -0.002 (0.024) -0.027 (0.025) yes yes yes no no yes Observation 2585 2585 2585 Log Likelihood -4982.98-4912.35-4912.35 ****** 1510 ( ) (4) FE (5) FE 0.006 (0.238) 0.039 (0.034) - -0.061 (0.051) - -0.051 (0.047) -0.120*** (0.032) -0.079** (0.363) - -0.119*** (0.042) - -0.035 (0.033) ln() 10.965*** (1.509) 11.765*** (1.572) ln() 0.296** (0.124) 0.303** (0.124) ln() -1.126*** (0.211) -0.944*** (0.225) ln( -0.560 (0.477) -0.588 (0.478) 0.014*** (0.003) -0.015*** (0.003) yes yes no no - 16 -

Observation 2585 2585 R 2 0.047 0.050 ****** 1510 ( ) (1) (2) 5 (3)(2) (4) (5) (1) 1(2)(3) 1 (4) 1(5) 1 1 (1) 5(2)(3) 5-17 -

(1)(2) 1 1 (1)(2) 1 (4) (5) 1 1 3 1 3-18 -

29 (2) 1 3 29 8 7 6,000 http://www.major7.net/pdf/trendlabo/research/004.pdf - 19 -

30 18 19 7 13 31 20 2 37 55 32 32 30 21 1 23 1 5 4 http://www.icba.or.jp/j/ken/tekihan/tekihan_list.htm 31 http://www.bcs.or.jp/news/pdf/(08 2 ).pdf 32-20 -

(2007)(2007) 1 3 (2007) 2 17 18-21 -

16 4 20 10 1 3 1 3 1 3 2 18 33 33-22 -

18-23 -

(2006) 20 1 45 49 (2006) 20 1 5055 (2007) 19 6 20 (2006) http://www.mlit.go.jp/kisha/kisha06/07/070224_4/03.pdf (2007) http://www.kenchiku-cpd.jp/~photo/dl/rengokai/2007/youbou-sho_07.11.07.pdf (2007) http://www.njr.or.jp/m01/07/071003/071002kijyunho-yobo_.pdf (2006) 88 (2008) (1997) (2006) 20 1 8895 (2007) 2006) 20 1 3944 (2006) 20 1 5664 =(2006) 19 4 1623 N. Gregory Mankiw (2004) Principles of Economics, 3 rd ed (2005) 1 2 Roger LeRoy Miller, Daniel K. Benjamin and Douglass C. North (1993) The Economics of Public Issues, 9 th ed (1995) - 24 -