J-LEAGUE 8000 V.Kawasaki Urawa.R 5000 J-LEAGUE
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1 The Demand for J-League with Fixed Effect Tobit Model: Effects toward Community Formation Tomonori Ito and Yoichiro Higuchi The J-League was established in 993 expecting to encourage the community to form its "comprehensive sport club." For verifying the J-League s effect, it is very meaningful to econometrically analyze the attendance demand for J-League matches. This study proposed the football attendance model, which considers the demand that exceeded a stadium capacity, with panel data analysis. We had three hypotheses. First, examining hypothesis() that the structure of demand for football attendance changed between 996 and 997, we found that it changed significantly. Secondly, hypothesis() that supporters decided their attendance on the basis of attributions of away clubs and games themselves after the structural change and we examined hypothesis(3) that supporters decided their attendance on the basis of attributions of home clubs before the structural change. As a result we proved that the J-League helped the development of the community through the hometown sports last eight s. KeywordsDemand for football, Panel analysis, Tobit - W J-LEAGUE 993 J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE (Tokyo Institute of Technology) (Tokyo Institute of Technology)
2 J-LEAGUE 8000 V.Kawasaki Urawa.R 5000 J-LEAGUE V J-LEAGUE 000 Division J-LEAGUE - 00 W W - W Tobit-Model J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE attendance per match
3 Simmons[996] -- Dobson & Goddard[998] Dobson & Goddard[998] - -- Walker[986] Dobson & Goddard[99] -- Cairns[987] -3
4 y Bird[98] -4 Cairns[987] x Dobson & Goddard[99] -5- ( ) Peel & Tobit-Model Thomas[988] Tobit-Model Tobit-Model ( ) (3--) 5 95 y = α + βx + ε ε ~ N ( 0, σ ) (3--) (50 ) -5 y y capacity -5- y = capacity y capacity (3--) y = y y < capacity (3--3) -5- µ σ y ~ N ( µ, σ ) (3--) Prob( y = capacity) = Prob( y capacity) J-LEAGUE capacity µ (3--4) = Φ σ (3--3) Prob( y = y ) = Prob( y < capacity) 3 capacity µ (3--5) 3- Tobit Model = Φ σ Φ( ) 4
5 (3--3) y µ f y y < capacity = φ σ σ = ( α βx) y + σ πσ e (3--6) yit yi. = yit (3--3) φ() T Fixed-Effect Model (3--4) (3--) L α ( α βx) capacity + L = Φ σ y capacity y < capacity ( α βx) σ y + e πσ y it = αi + β k xitk + ε it k= (3--7) i =,,, N t =,,, T (3--4) Random-Effect Model (3--5) Fixed-Effect capacity ( + x) Model α α β i log L = Φ = σ y capacity m ( ) ( ) y α + βx y it = αi + β k xitk + ε it + log π + logσ + k= σ i =,,, N t =,,, T (3--5) y< capacity Between Model (3--) OLS y it = α + β x + ε (3--8) (3--8) E( αi ) = 0 E( α i ) = σ α 3- E( αiα j ) = 0 ( i j) E( εit ) = 0 E( ε it ) = σ ε (3--6) 3-- E( ε itε js ) = 0 ( i j, t s) E( α iε it ) = 0 N ( T ) u it = α i + ε it ( ) E ( u it ) = 0 σα + σε ( i = j, t = s) E( uitu js ) = σ α ( i = j, t s) (3--7) 0 ( i j) 3-- E( α ) = 0 i x it (3--8) Total Model Variance-Components Model OLS (3--) m F y it = α + β k xitk + ε it Hausman k= i =,,, N t =,,, T (3--) 3-- m k k= itk it i =,,, N t =,,, T (3--) m i 5
6 Yes No Total-Model y α + α α β β β +β Fixed Effect-Model Random Effect-Model α x Fixed-Effect-Tobit Model α Fixed-Effect-Tobit Model α + α i t (3-3-) β β + β yit = α i + βxit + ε it it (3-3-) 4 J-LEAGUE y it = capacity i yit capacityi (3-3-) J-LEAGUE 06 y it = y it y it < capacityi (3-3-3) J-LEAGUE Tobit Model J-LEAGUE Baltagi[00] (3-3-) α i β σ ε βˆ σˆε Fixed-Effect-Tobit Model (incidental parameters problem) Greene[00] Fixed-Effect-Tobit Model (3-4-) 4-- y = α + βx + ε (3-4-) D ( 0 ) (3-4-) 3-4- y ε ~ N( 0, σ ) = α + α D + βx + β Dx + ε (3-4-) Dobson & Goddard[00] 6
7 ( V G ) J-LEAGUE V G J-LEAGUE 6000 JEF.Ichihara 4000 V.Kawasaki G.Osaka 000 S.Hirosima 4--J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE 6000 J-LEAGUE ( ) V G attendance per attendance per match league position JEF.Ichihara V.Kawasaki G,Osaka S.Hirosima J-LEAGUE 4--3 V G J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE 4--4 ( ) 4-- 7
8 J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE 6000 Kasima.A Urawa.R 4000 J-League attendance per J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE Division- 3 J-LEAGUE 3 J-LEAGUE 4--6 J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE (4-4-) Fixed-Effect-Tobit Model J-LEAGUE 996 yit J-LEAGUE - attendance per match 8 attendance per match
9 yit = α i + βkh( k) it + γ la( l) it + δom( o) it + ηrd( r) it + εit k = l= o= r= (4-4-) % 997 α i h( k )it 4-5- a ( l) it m ( o) it d ( r) it ε it 0 σ ε 4-5- y it = capacity i yit capacityi (4-4-) y it = y it y it < capacityi observation i t estimates number of full matches α i i h( k )it a ( l) it m ( o ) it Fixed-Effect-Tobit Model % 9 attendance per match match
10 4-5- Fixed-Effect-Tobit Model J-LEAGUE ( ) ( ) 3( ) J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE J-LEAGUE 0
11 00 W J-LEAGUE W [000] William H.Greene[000] Economic Analysis Fourth Edition,Prentice-Hall, [000] Maddala,G.S.,[99] Introduction to Econometrics[ nd ed.], ( [998] ) [00] [995]TSP [ ] Baltagi, H. [00] Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley and Sons: New York Bird,P[983] The demand for league football, Applied Economics,v4, Cairns,J[987] Evaluating changes in league structure : the reorganization of the Scottish Football League, Applied Economics,v9,59-75 Dobson,s.m.,Goddard,J.A.[99] The demand for standing and seated viewing accommodation in the Football League, Applied Economics,v4,55-63 [995] The demand for football in the regions of England and Wales, Regional Studies,30, [998] Performance and revenue in professional league football: evidence from Granger causality tests, Applied Economics, 30, 64-5 [00] The Economics of Football, Cambridge University Press Green, W. [00] The Behavior of the Fixed Effects Estimator in Nonlinear Models, Peel,D.A.andThomas,D.[988] Outcome uncertainty and the demand for football, Scottish Journal of Political Economy,35,4-9 Simmons,R.[996] The demand for English league football : a club level analysis, Applied Economics,8,39-55 Walker,B.[986] The demand for professional league football and the success of football league teams : some city size effects, Urban Studies,3,09-9 Wilson,P.andSim,B.[995] The demand for Semi-Pro League football in Malaysia : a panel data approach, Applied Economics,7,3-38
Attendance Demand for J-League õ Shinsuke KAWAI* and Takeo HIRATA* Abstract The purpose of this study was to clarify the variables determining the attendance in J-league matches, using the 2,699 J-league
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* takeshi.shimatani@boj.or.jp ** kawai@ml.me.titech.ac.jp *** naohiko.baba@boj.or.jp No.05-J-3 2005 3 103-8660 30 No.05-J-3 2005 3 1990 * E-mailtakeshi.shimatani@boj.or.jp ** E-mailkawai@ml.me.titech.ac.jp
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