BIS FRB BIS BIS FRB QE QE
-February FRB BIS IMF BIS Spillover Spillovers BIS IMF EMEs
GDP GDP........ GDP BIS, 83rd Annual Report, June 2013, p.14 Ibid., p.14.
-February 1 1 2009 2013 2) 2009 2013 2) -7.6-4.0 91 114-3.1-0.2 77 88-15.6-4.1 138 184-11.2-6.9 63 98-8.8-10.3 189 228-10.8-7.1 72 109-11.9-5.4 89 109 1GDP 2OECD Ibid., p.40 BIS BIS 12 10 8 6 90 80 70 60 4 2 0-2 50 40 30 20 10-4 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2013, 97 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020, 98
BIS GDP GDP FRB QE ECB GDP FRB FRB QE 1 p.17 p.69.
-February FRB, CLBS Report, Overview, Aug. 2012, Fig 1 QEQEQE QE All Liquidity Facilities FRB FRB MBSQE QE MBS GDP FRB FRB V
1 2012 2 29 Mckinsey Global Institute 1 79 2010 2 GDP 3 2012 1 10 36 McKinsey Global Institute
-February M2 2013 2 11 12 1 p.20
p.18 FRB
-February 12 3 2013 9 24 27 BIS
BIS, Quarterly Review, March 2013, p.12 BISIMF Spillovers Spillovers NY
-February http://stocks.finance.yahoo.co.jp/stocks/chart/?code=2013 8 11
QE BIS IMF FRB SCB 2009 2010 2011 2012 77-3,616-4,495-4,577-4,404 72-5,106-6,502-7,441-7,415 50,63-7,831 199 3,824-283 50-6,179-9,157-3,328-1,783 63-1,652 9,356 7,152 1,500 56 4,803 3,983 2,538 3,939 71 1,508 116-928 -59 Survey of Current Business, July 2013, Table 1
-February BIS, IMF SCB LA SCB LA SCBSCB SCB -,,,,, EU -,,, -,, -,,,,, -,,, - - LA -, -, LA -,, -, -, -,,, -, -,,, -,, -, - -,,, -,, - - - -,,,, -,,,,, SCB SCB EU S.C.B Table
SCB LA SCB LA spillover LA LA 1 2 3 1 4 2 5 3 SCB50SCB63 21 31 SCB55-5,919 8,346 10,925 2,427 5,006-3,785 4,036 4,036 251 251-2,404 3,625 3,625 1,221 1,221 4 270 685 3,264 955 3,534 LA -161 81 1,490-80 1,329 LA -2,456 787 2,196-1,669-260 2,295-706 -706 1,589 1,589 1234
-February LA LA CIS IMF IFS LA
Spillovers IMF CIS LA CIS SCB SCB SCB
-February 2010 2011 2012 83.0 94.2 62.2 35.3 22.4 16.6-37.1-12.5-23.7-82.9-119.5-79.3 CIS -25.4-63.9-41.1 35.3 22.4 16.6-37.1-12.5-23.7 71.9 112.3 85.3 390.5 366.5 110.4 31.4 10.7 19.4-571.2-439.9-134.2 232.0 177.8 130.4 LA 130.5 200.4 136.2 48.3 24.7 62.0-66.2-85.9-31.4-60.7-75.5-99.5 9.5-95.5-45.5-49.1-83.6-132.1-96.4-132.0-166.5 189.1 408.3 393.1-16.3-2.5 14.9 33.2 30.8 33.6-1.7-21.0-19.1-14.4-17.6-35.6 IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct. 2013, p.174april 2013, p.164 SCB IMF CIS
SCB
-February 2010 2011 2012 2010 12 2010 2011 2012 2011 12 2010 2011 2012 2011 12 1 2-9,157-3,328-1,783-14,268 9,356 7,152 1,500 18,008 199 3,824-283 3,740 3-5,068 2,159 3,805 896 1,941 2,903-3,874 970-3,127 5,062-69 1,866-4,743 2,503 3,726 1,486 2,244 2,197-3,567 874-2,499 4,700 159 2,360-325 -344 79-590 -303 706-307 96-628 362-228 -494 4 314 41-258 97 679 60-395 344 993 101-653 441 392 394 75 861 479-127 -357-5 871 267-282 856-78 -353-333 -764 200 187-38 349 122-166 -371-415 -4,754 2,200 3,547 993 2,620 2,963-4,269 1,314-2,134 5,163-722 2,307-4,351 2,897 3,801 2,347 2,723 2,070-3,924 869-1,628 4,967-123 3,216-403 -697-254 -1,354-103 893-345 445-506 196-599 -909-4,403-5,528-5,331-15,262 6,736 4,189 5,768 16,693 2,333-1,339 437 1,431-3,011-4,090-3,883-10,984 2,059 2,302 1,664 6,025-952 -1,788-2,219-4,959-1,391-1,438-1,448-4,277 4,393 1,336 3,533 9,262 3,002-102 2,085 4,985 0 0 0 0 284 550 571 1,405 284 550 571 1,405 1SCB 50 2SCB 63 3 4 S.C.B., 7 Table 911 b+b=m+md+xb b mm d X d bb m+m X d bb
FRB FOMC BIS BIS FRB FRB
-February FOMC FOMC BIS BIS, 83rd Annual Report, pp.-. Ibid.,p.. Ibid.,pp.-. IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct., pp.-. QE BIS
BIS, op.cit., p.. Ibid., p.. BIS p. Ibid., p.. Ibid., pp. SCB SCB IMF IFS IMF ECB, Monthly Bulletin, Oct. p.s
-February BIS,op.cit., p.. Ibid., p.. Ibid., p.. http://www.news.jp/cn.html
Unconventional Monetary Policies Employed by Major Central Banks and New International Credits Since the Lehman shock in 2008, major central banks have taken the unconventional monetary policies of lowering the policy rate to zero and expanding their balance sheets. On the other hand, their monetary policies in advanced countries have had significant financial effects on emerging market economies (EMEs). The substantial fall of rates in advanced economies encouraged capital flows to EMEs and new international credit chains between advanced countries and EMEs have been built since 2008. Another effect was upward pressure on the currencies of EMEs. But immediately after Japans prime minister nominated the new governor of the Bank of Japan, BIS cautioned in its 83rd Annual Report that unconventional monetary policies could not solve the stagnation that advanced countries have been suffering since 2008. Monetary stimulus alone, BIS report continued, cannot provide the answer because the roots of the problem are not monetary. The main subjects of this paper are an analysis of how the unconventional monetary policies have built new international credit chains and an examination of the sustainability of these unconventional monetary policies. OKUDA, Hiroshi, Professor, College of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University