(C) 2007 2008 19590634 2009 6 26 Multi-agent systems for disease control and prevention TANIMURA SUSUMU 60325678 2007 2,500,000 750,000 3,250,000 2008 1,000,000 300,000 1,300,000 3,500,000 1,050,000 4,550,000 1
(Bagni et al., 2002; Bian, 2004; Patlolla et al., 2004; Dunham, 2006) (MAS) in silico HIV/AIDS (Teweldemedhin et al., 2004) (Muller et al., 2004) (Cummings et al., 2004; Barrett et al. 2005; Riley and Ferguson, 2006) (Favier et al., 2005; Ferguson et al., 2005; Longini Jr. et al., 2005; Ferguson et al., 2006) Favier et al. (2005) 8500 in silico 20 2 5km 90% 27km Ohkusa et al. (2006) KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) 2 (1) (GIS) in silico GIS MAS 1998 Integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Agent Modeling Techiques (Tsou and Buttenfield, 1998; Jiang, 2000; Schüle et al., 2004; Castella et al., 2005; Brown et al., 2005; Karadimas et al., 2006) GIS GIS MAS MAS in silico GIS (2)
3 (1) OS: Ubuntu 9.04 Web Apache HTTP Server (version 2.2.11) MySQL (version 5.1.30) PHP (version 5.2.6) LAMP PHP Web 2 0 2006 10521 10520 21041 1 0 6 7 12 8 13 15 4 16-18 1 (2) CDC 1999 2007 OD (Origin-Destination) OD OD OD OD T ij 1 GIS S ij S ij = k P α i P λ j d β ij S ij = d ij /t ij t ij = 1 k d (β 1) ij P α i P λ j t ij i j OD OD α β λ 4 (1) 1 2 0.2, 0.001 7 7 10 10 3 24 415 5
1388000 1386000 Northing 1384000 1382000 図2 マルチエージェント GIS プログラムの実行 結果画面 942000 944000 946000 948000 Easting 図4 感染流行開始 15 日後の感染者 感染者は 赤丸 非感染者は黒丸で示す パラメータ設定は 1386000 染性期 7 日 潜伏期 10 日 有症状期 10 日 944000 946000 948000 Northing 942000 図3 1384000 Easting 1386000 1382000 1388000 1384000 Northing 1388000 感染確率 0.2, 致死率 0.001 感染潜伏期 7 日 感 感染流行開始 24 時間後の感染者 感染者は 赤丸 非感染者は黒丸で示す パラメータ設定は 1382000 感染確率 0.2, 致死率 0.001 感染潜伏期 7 日 感 染性期 7 日 潜伏期 10 日 有症状期 10 日 942000 944000 946000 948000 Easting 図5 感染流行開始 15 日後の感染者密度平面 る改善と改良が必要とされ さらに開発期間が必要 である (2) モデル定義から 流行初年度が同年である州 では それら州のペアにおける流行遅延時間が 0 で あるため 拡散速度も 0 となった この拡散速度が 0 となる州のペアを除いた拡散速度の度数分布は右 に裾の長い非対称分布であった 推定したモデルパラメータを用いて算出した流行 口 5 千万人規模なら約 2 年で WMV 感染症が到達 することが明らかになった ベクターや他の宿主を 考慮していない単純なモデルであるが 本モデルは 拡大速度の約 40% を説明した 5 主な発表論文等 拡大速度を図 6 に示す 人口が大きくなればなるほ 雑誌論文 計 5 件 ど拡大速度は増し 距離が大きくなればなるほど流 行が到達するまでに時間がかかる 例えば 500km 離れた都市では 人口 100 万人規模なら約 3 年 人 1 Susumu Tanimura, Vu Dinh Thiem, Hideki Yanai, Paul Kilgore, Koya Ariyoshi. Geo-
year 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Population (million) 1 5 10 50 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Susumu Tanimura, Kenji Nakata, and Shoji Sakano. Evaluation of tsunami affected area in Sri Lanka by using remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) for the capacity development of rapid emergency response. Tropical Medicine and Health, 35(2):224, 2007. 13 distance (km) 6 WNV graphic demographics of Khanh Hoa, Vietnam: Appilocation of kernel density estimation. Journal of International Health 23(2): 109, 2008. 2 Susumu Tanimura, Chushi Kuroiwa, Tsutomu Mizota. Auxilary cartographic functions in R: North arrow, scale bar, and label with leader arrow. Journal of Statistical Software, 19(Code Snippet 1): 1 8, 2007. 3 Susumu Tanimura, Vu Dinh Thiem, Chushi Kuroiwa, Tsutomu Mizota. Regional Risk Factors Affecting Spatial Clustering of Degue Fever: Apppliation of Baysian Hierarchical Models. Tropical Medicine and Health 35(2): 225, 2007. 4 Kensuke Goto, Susumu Tanimura, Ataru Tsuzuki, Vu Dinh Thiem, Ali Mohammad, Hideki Yanai, and Tsutomu Mizota. On the application of high resolution satellite data to GIS mapping in developing country. Tropical Medicine and Health, 35(2):224-225, 2007. 5 Saori Kashima, Hideki Yamamoto, 1 Natalya Shin, Susumu Tanimura. The role of distance and population size on the WNV epidemic in the US during 1999-2007, The Joint Meeting of the 49th Annual Meeting of Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine and the 23rd Annual Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Oct.25-26, 2008, Tokyo. 2 Susumu Tanimura, Natalya Shin. Diffusion rate of West Nile virus infection in the US, 1999-2007, The Joint Meeting of the 49th Annual Meeting of Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine and the 23rd Annual Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Oct.25-26, 2008, Tokyo. 3 Susumu Tanimura, Vu Dinh Thiem, Kensuke Goto, Motoki Suzuki, Tho Le Huu, Kilgore Paul, Dang Duc Anh, Koya Ariyoshi, Hideki Yanai. Exploring aggregate effect on demographic data with administrative boundaries for health policy and planning, The Joint Meeting of the 49th Annual Meeting of Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine and the 23rd Annual Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Oct.25-26, 2008, Tokyo. 4 Natalya Shin, Nader Ghotbi, and Susumu Tanimura. A Comparative Study between the Influences of Mongolian and Uzbek Traditional Swaddling Habits on the Higher Rates of Rickets. The 23th Eastern Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.16, 2008, Tokyo.
5 Viengmany Bounkham and Susumu Tanimura. Health Status and Health System in Lao PDR. The 26th Western Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.1, 2008, Okayama. 6 Lor Vann Thary and Susumu Tanimura. Health System and Health Status in Cambodia. The 26th Western Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.1, 2008, Okayama. 7 Vong Sreytouch and Susumu Tanimura. Social Marketing of HIV Prevention in Cambodia. The 26th Western Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.1, 2008, Okayama. 8 Natalya Shin, Nader Ghotbi and Susumu Tanimura. Higher Rates of rickets among Uzbek children raised in cradle. The 26th Western Regional Meeting of Japan Association for International Health, Mar.1, 2008, Okayama. 9, Vu Dinh Thiem,,,.. 48,, 2007 10 12 13. 10, Vu Dinh Thiem,, Paul Kilgore,.. 48,, 2007 10 12 13. 11, Vu Dinh Thiem,, Paul Kilgore,.. 22,, 2007 10 7 8 12. R. 35,, 2007 9 2 5 13.. 2007,, 2007 9 6 9 6 (1) TANIMURA SUSUMU 60325678