NEDO 2001 17 (640 kl) 2006 49 (1,850 kl) 5 3 2012 75 (2,840 kl)eia Energy Information Administration 112 (4,240 kl) 1 1 EIA 1MTBE 2 3 Twenty in Ten 4 5EIA 2 6 1 EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2007 16
F.O.Licht 1. MTBE (Clean Air Act)EPA: Environmental Protection Agency (RFG: Reformulated Gasoline) EPA 1/3 RFG 2006 33.5% RFG MTBE MTBE MTBE 2005 (Energy Policy Act of 2005) MTBE 2006 5 MTBE 2006 RFG MTBE MTBE 2 EIA: Petroleum Supply Monthly 3 2004 1 4 MTBE MTBE 5 MTBE 17
2 MTBE 2. EIA: Monthly Oxygenate Report EIA 2006 1 1 2006 (A)RFG (B) (C) a. 2,890 5,427 8,317 b. 2,588 1,024 3,612 (89.6%) (18.9%) (43.4%) c. 317 (3.8%) a. 360 1,351 1,711 b. 360 875 1,235 (100%) (64.8%) (72.2%) c. 112 (6.5%) EIA: Petroleum Supply Monthly 2006 4 18
4 (a/c) 8.8% (1,840 kl/)( 6,000 kl/) (Conventional Gasoline) 1 72RFG A/C 21 35 2007 3 Renewable Fuels Association Annual Industry Outlook 2007 2007 97% 85 90% 3. 6 10E10 7 EIA: Petroleum Supply Monthly 15 19
2005 1 30% 66% 2 40% 3 2 Btu) (%) (%) (%) 1985 76.580 9.9 28.9 40.4 1990 84.730 16.6 45.6 39.6 1995 91.200 19.5 48.9 37.9 2000 98.976 25.2 58.3 38.8 2005 100.461 30.0 65.8 40.5 EIA: Monthly Energy Review April 2007 3 1985 8,971 3,083 1,630 14,207 1990 7,355 5,867 1,927 15,405 1995 6.560 7,230 1,413 15,766 2000 5,822 9,062 2,133 17,453 2005 5,178 10,074 3,213 18,650 EIA: Petroleum Supply Annual 2005 RFS: Renewable Fuel Standard 2007 8 9 2005 12 2006 2.78%() 20
2006 9 EPA 4 10 EPA 2007 RFS 2007 4.02%( 47 ) 2012 75 (RINs: Renewable Identification Numbers) Twenty in Ten 1 10 2017 2010 20% Twenty in Ten 11 CO2 12 CO2 20 15 350 1 3,000 kl 5 20 10%RFS (CTL: Coal to Liquid) 4 10 http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420f07019.htm http://www.energy.gov/news/4940.htm 11 NEDO 994 () http://www.nedo.go.jp/kankobutsu/report/994/994-09.pdf 12 (EU) 2020 20% 10%NEDO 13 NEDO 994 EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2007 CTL 2015 14 EPA (CO2 ) http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420f07035.htm 21
4. 10 5 Agricultural Statistics Corn Production Trends 8,000 2007 9,000 6 22
(USDA): Prospective Plantings 7 (USDA): Agricultural Prices 5. EIA EIA 2 2030 Annual Energy 23
Outlook 2007 15 EIA (RFS) 2012 75 RFS 2012 112 4,240 kl 7.5 2007 3 12030 146 (5,530 kl) 8 2 2005 2 16 2 17 2010 2015 2 5,000 ( 2%) 1 Agricultural Census 2002 48 4 3,400 23% 50 15 RFS2012 75 Twenty in Ten 16 NEDO 997 3 8,500 http://www.nedo.go.jp/kankobutsu/report/997/997-09.pdf 17 2 1 2 24
Conservation Reservation Program(CRP) 18 CRP CRP 19 20 2006 46 E10 10%E85( 85% 15%) 4 E10 E85 E10 E85 4 2006 7 (%) E10 169,000 100.0 E85 799 0.5 18 http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/programs/crp/ 19 2006 6 6 20 25
6. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 E10 E85 EIA 2012 112 7.5% 75% E10 5 5 (2006 ) (%) (%) (17) 3,318 36.0 2,024 22.1 (15) 2,630 28.5 2,080 22.6 (6) 1,371 14.8 3,263 35.5 (5) 281 3.0 281 3.1 (7) 1,634 17.7 1,538 16.7 (50) 9,233 100.0 9,187 100.0 EIA: Petroleum Supply Monthly (RFG) RFG 2006 RFG E10 6 EIA 2012 112 730 7.5% E10 2006 2 26
6 2006 9,233 317 317 2,630 309 112 197 2012 9.733 730 730 2,772 657 277 380 12006 EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly 2012 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (7.5%) 2006 22006 EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly 2012 RFA Annual Industry Outlook 3 32006 EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly 2012 E10 4 RFG E10 E85 6 2006 E85 (380 197) 0.85 0.72 = 299 21 RFG 22 E85 E85 Flexible Vehicle 23 2/3 E85 72% 27
E85 3% 11% E85 1 2006 476 24 E85 E10 E85 Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Supply Monthly: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_mont hly/psm.html Petroleum Supply Annual: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_annu al/psa_volume1/psa_volume1.html Monthly Oxygenate Report: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/monthly_oxygenate_tele phone_report/motr.html Annual Energy Outlook 2007: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html Monthly Energy Review April 2007: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Statistics: http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/agstats.htm Prospective Plantings: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/mannusda/viewdocumentinfo.do?documentid=1136 Agricultural Prices: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/mannusda/viewdocumentinfo.do?documentid=1002 Renewable Fuel Association (RFA) Annual Industry Outlook : http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/outlook/ National Corn Growers Association: http://www.ncga.com/production/main/index.asp 24 5 580 28