1 3 3 3 10 16 24 26 26 41 43 43 43 48 53 61 62 70 () 73 75

001Y219E

1 3 3 3 10 16 24 26 26 41 43 43 43 48 53 61 62 70 () 73 75

90 4 1 3 2 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 4 4 1

2

1 2 90 1983 83 82.6ha 1,800 3

1,036 83 86 1 1-1 1986 2 (1993 ) 3(1997 ) 4(2001 ) 93 97 01 93 97 01 1 S.40 (S.45 )(S.49 )S.50 (S.55 )(S.57 )(S.58)(S.58 ) 4

1-1 1986 61 1993 5 1997 9 2001 97 01 97 01 2 5

1-1 9424 6

40 50 1994 2-1 1 1853 1873 2 1911 1922 1926 1927 1960 1965 17 3 19 19 20 1930 1950 2 7

1-2 1955 1983 90 200 1998 1-2 1997 271 65 1997 2 3 8

1964 31965-74 31975-84 7 60-6 41 5.86 1995 41996 21997 5 [1995] 4 (1) (2)(3)(4) 4 (1) (2) (3) (4) 9

(1)(2) 4 2 3 90 2 2001 9 2004 21 2003 4 1986 10

19903 3 1999 5 10 5 5 15 11

1-2 & 2003 2002 2003 15 1-2 58 2001 80.1 ha 2 71.4 ha 3,380 2001 9 4 2001 152 ha 12

50 2001 3.6 ha 61 2001 49.5 ha 2 2001 33 ha 2 2001 2.1 ha 5 2001 8.3 ha 1987 88 1 5 2000 8.5 ha 9 2001 12 ha 20 600 13

1-3 1998.p35 1 6 ()() 1998 1-3 14

-a -b -c -d -e -a -b -c -d -e -f -a -b -c -d -e -a 1998 1997 65 22 11 1990 15

1-3.a & 3 90 2001 90 90 2001 90 01 4 90 93 94 96 97 2000 01 3,000 90 93 1.2% 3,400 94-3.3% 93 16

95 96 16,986 17,368 93 6%8.3% 3,600 3,670 97 96-98 17,459 99 2000 3,900 22,047 2000 27.4% 90 01 92 01 97 92 96 97 01 3,900 92 93 3, 750 3,902 94-2.3% 93 96 96 4,200 97 96 97 98 99 2000 01-3%-2.4%-3.2%-3.6%-5.6%92 01 97 90 01 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 01 1,550 2,241 2,364 1,800 92 93-5.1%-4.4% 2,000 94 17

1-3.b & 95-15.9-14.4%96 97 2,200 98-12.1 97 99 2000 01 1,325 (-7%)1,249 (-5.7%) 1,096 (-12.3%) () 90 01 90 01 90 96 97 98 01 3,000 90 95 8.5% 18

96 1,579 95-17.8% 2,500 2,300 98 1,421 16.999 816-42.6% 2000 10 1,500 2000 01 90 96 01 90 01 90 94 95 97 98 01 1,800 91 90-12.6% 92 91 17.5% 94 2,300 95 96 97 2,400 98 98 97-2.8% 99 2000 01 98-10.2% 90 97 98 90 01 91 01 01 3, 000 91 1,830 92 1,519-17% 93 94 95 96 95 14.5% 98 9.2% 19

1-3.c & 99 98-14.1% 96 98 01 01 95 98 93 01 2, 500 93 2,834 94-27.4%95-24.7%96-22.5% 97-20.5% 01 453-84% 01 93 2000 4, 200 6 94 1,125 95 1,248 36%11%96 1, 092-12.5%97 1, 186 6 20

8.6%98 98 99-18.1%-19.5% 2000 7 99-5.9% 2000-5.5% 2000 97 98 97 01 2, 000 97 2,980 98 2,940-1% 99 99 2000 01 2, 380 1,820 1,340-25% 94 01 94 98 99 01 3,000 94 4,265 95 96 3,014 2,457-29.3%-18.5%96 97 98 2,035-17.7% 3,200 99 2000 01 13.7%16.9% 4.4%98 94 01 3 21

1-4 2001 % % 2% 27% 30% 72% 70% 5% 18% 48% 30% 29% 70% 1% 14% 14% 41% 55% 59% TDR HTB 22

1-4 3 2001 3 TDR 72%HTB 29% USJ 55%TDR 2% HTB 5% TDRHTBUSJ 70%70%59% 3 1983 20 20 90 3 1 3,261 10 23

97 5% 10% 2001 2001 1 3 1 3 1 24

1983 2 1983 2 5 3 10 90 2001 25

N i N x i = D i ( p) i i ( p) = x = D ( p) D N i N i N i N p D i ( p) p M y j = S j ( p) j M S j j ( p) = y = S ( p) j M j M 2-1 D ( p) S( p) 26

2-1 p S( p) * p E D( p) 0 * x 1999p.143 x y x E D p = S ( ) ( p) ( x *, p * ) 1 1 2 3 (seasonality) (off-season) (on-season) 1 2000 19941992 27

1)2) 3)4)5) 6)5) Newton Newton GM i M I ij = D 2 ij j I ij i j G M ij i j D i j ij ( M ) ( D ) 1992Crampon 2 51 46 2 1992 28

I ij n i =1 I ij = G P d i b ij I i j Pi ij i d i j G, b ij i j i j Crampon 51 46 46 0.48 0.97 r b 1.88 b b JudMalamud 1 Smith 2 Wolfe (momentum) 2 Smith 3 1 29

(full cost principle) 2 3 2-2 P = V + mv + m V ( + m + m ) = V 1 = V ( 1+ r) V m m q r p P V ( 1+ r) V V 30

2-3 P MC p M E A AC D B 0 x M MR 1999p.303 xe x p x D( p) c( x) π = pd ( p) c[ D( p) ] ( x) π = p ( x) x c( x) p p < 0 1 ( TR ) 2 ( TC ) ( x) p ( x) x = c ( x) p + ( MR )( MC ) ( x) + p ( x) x < c ( x) 2 p ( M xm MR = MC p p x ) MR M MC 2-2 x M 31

+ dp x dx p ε x dx p p 1 ( ) dp x 1 p ( x) 1 = c ( x) ε ( x) p c ε > 1 x = p α > 0, β > 1 α β ε = β c p M p M ( 1 1 β ) = c 1 ( 1 1 β ) X P T XP + Y = M T X > 0 Y = M X = 0 4 32

M Y U U ( X, Y ) = P U U x y = P T Y U U ( X, Y ) U ( 0, M ) = 0 = U U x y < P X = 0 Y = M P M T X D( P M T ) =, M T M T ( M T ) dx dm dx = dt π = XP + T C ( X ) C ( X ) dπ = P dt T dx dt + 1 c dx dt = 1 ( P c ) c Y dx dm 33

T 1) T * T Y * T U U, 0 = ( 0 M ) 0 U X ϕ( P) = P * T P T * = P ϕ ( P ) dp = ϕ ( P ) = X dt dp * P * T T ) π P P π dπ = X + P dp dx dp * dt + dp c dx dp P * T P dx P c P = c dp ( ) = 0 P * T P ϕ( P) P ) 34

( ) x U y U ( c 1) Y T P ϕ 1 ϕ 2 ϕ 1 ϕ 2 C T C π = π π 1 + 2 = 2( ABC) P T P PD * X 1 = 35

A A P C D D E B E B ϕ 2 ϕ 1 0 * X1 X1 * X 2 X 2 * π 1 = π 1 π 1 = [( ADP ) + ( PDEC )] [ ABC ] = ( DBE ) * π 2 = π 2 π 2 = [( ADP ) + ( PD E C )] [ ABC ] = + ( DD E B ) T P P T 36

A A C P B E D B E D ϕ 1 ϕ 2 0 * * X 2 X 2 X 1 X 1 * X 1 = PD P T π 1 = π 1 π 1 * = [( ADP ) ( CEDP )] [ ABC ] = ( BED ) P π = π [( ADP ) ( CE ' D ' P )] [ ABC ] = + ( E ' ') * 2 π 2 = BDD 37

P T T P P π ( N ) = XP + NT C( X ) X T = T 1 C ( X ) dπ dp * c = P 1 N s 1 + 1 E s1 = x1 X E 1 N ( 1 N ) > 0 P c ( 1 N ) < 0 s 1 s 1 38

π ( n) π S π A 0 n n P T = T 1 ) π ( n) ( n) π π nt π = ( P c)x S T π T π A * A = A 39

T P π = ( P c)x S ( P C) X π S dπ n dn dπ dπ ( ) = + = 0 dn A dn S π A π S ( P, T ) π T ε P ( XP + T ) M A 40

X P T j * 1 2 3 (seasonality) (off-season)(on-season) 2 Newton Crampon b b Jud Malamud 41

3 Walter Y.Oi 1 ) (1) p ( dx ) + ( dy ) = 1 dy = 1 p( dx ) dm dm dm dm (6) d π = dy + c ( dx ) dt dm dm c 0 Y ( dy dm ) > 0 dπ dt 2 ) * R = XP + T P 3 ) x j = ϕ j ( p) j U 0 ( X ) 1 p * p j T j (7) 4 ) p (10) ( 1 N ) > 0 p s 1 42

1 2 2 3 X 1, X 2,, i X k Y = β β + 0 + β1x 1i + β 2 X 2i + + k X ki ui ( i = 1,2,, n) β 0, β1,, β k u i X 1, X 2,, X k Yi Yi X 1, X 2,, X k ( Y X ) ( X YY X ) identification bias ( X Y ) () P Q 43

3-1 P A ( P, Q ) P P S 1 A 1 S3 S S 1 2 A A A 3 1 A 2 A 3 2 D 1 A 1 D 2 A 2 S 2 A 3 S 3 D 3 Q D D 1 2 1988p.226-227 D 3 Q Q P Q 3-1 A P, ) A P, ) A P, Q ) 1 ( 1 Q1 2 ( 2 Q 3 n ( n n Q P P P,, D,,, S, S1 S 2 3 mongrel S D1 D2 3 D1 1 Q P P 1 (1) (2) 1 44

k < G 1 k = G 1 k > G 1 k = G = ordinary least square,ols indirect least square,ils two stage least square,tsls ILS TSLS 2 45

2 1 R&D 1 2 f f () () 1 Q d = f ( p, y, QP ) 2 Q s = f ( p, Q, Q, PR I w ) ( Q )( p ) 2 ( y )( QP )( QI )( Qw )( PR ) 5 2 46

() 2 () 47

() Q Q d 1 2 Q s ( ) ( +, ) ( + ) = f ( p, y, QP ( + ) ( + ) ( ) ( + = f ( p, Q, Q, PR I w ) ) ) 1990 2001 () ( ) P = 2002 ( kwh ) 9 ( 3 m ) 48

( km )( km ) PR = 100 y 15 13 95 1 72% USJ 55% 1 150 km 150 km 4 2 () 3 y = E1 CPI n1 N E2 + CPI n2 N + + E i CPI ni N 1,2,, i ( E )( CPI )( n ) 49

( N ) 9 5 9 6 10 4 y CramponJudMalamud 1 4 14 50 (23 ) 2 8 2 4 2 2 Yahoo! http://transit.yahoo.co.jp/ 3 2 3 50

QP i POP POP POP POP = + + + i D D D D, i, i, i, i ( POP ) i ( D ) ( QP )( POP )( D ) 2 () ( QP ) 1 51

Q d = f ( p, y, QP ) Q s = f ( p, Q, Q, PR I w ) ( t ) Q d = f ( p, y, QP, t ).a Q s = f ( p, Q, Q, PR, t ).b I w ( Q ) ( p ) 2 ( y )( QP )( QI ) ( Q )( PR )( t ) 6 w G 1 = 2 1= 1 k.a k = 8 5 = 3.b k = 8 6 = 2 2 3 5 13 9 Q d = f ( p, y, QP ).a Q s = f ( p, Q, Q, PR ).b I w ( Q ) ( p ) 2 ( y )( QP )( QI ) ( Q )( PR ) 5 G 1 = 2 1= 1k w.a k = 7 4 = 3.b k = 7 5 = 2 2 4 5 13 9 52

lnq d = f (ln p,ln y,lnqp, t).a ln Q s = f (ln p, ln Q I, ln Q w, PR, t ).b ( lnq ) ( ln p ) 2 ( lny)( lnqp) ( ln )( lnq )( PR )( t ) 6 Q I w G 1 = 2 1= 1 k.a k = 8 5 = 3.b k = 8 6 = 2 2 3 5 13 9 3 3 1. 3-1.a.b ( 2 R ) 0.492734 0.572985 5 6 t.a t -1.9758 5% -7.047644 t -1.9095 5%-10.6882 53

3-1 p y QP Q I Q w PR t R 2 t 2.8002 1% 0.475442.b t 2.2272 1% 1.903209 t 1.4779 10% 1.296404-0.2509t -0.2570 t -1.7943 54

p 3-2 y QP Q I Q w PR t R 2 5%-17.449 3-2.a.b ( 2 R ) 0.941543 0.974747 90%.a -7.04644 t -0.0173 t 3.7702 1% 9.771546 55

ln p 3-3 ln y ln QP ln Q I ln Q w PR t R 2 t 6.9639 1% 1.310549.b 10.64783 t 33.2323 1% -0.01948t -0.0365-2.22938-6.7883 1% 56

t 9.8545 1% 30.07352 3-3.a.b ( 2 R ) 0.343657 0.819356 30% 80%.a -0.001952 t -0.1268 8.184161 10% 0.336984t 0.8405.b 0.004014 t 0.5139 3.395421 t 2.4443 5% t -2.0596 5%-3.584289 0.243888t 1% 57

58

1 1 59

3 60

3 61

1 1983 2 1983 1873 1965 17 90 62

85 94 10 75 84 5.86 4 3 5 10 90 2001 90 2001 12 4 94 97 98 2001 92 2001 10 1 98 97 63

90 2001 12 3 92 94 98 10 90 2001 12 2 97 98 2000 10 1 90 96 2001 90 2001 12 2 95 98 90 97 98 90 2001 91 2001 11 95 98 93 2001 9 1 93 2000 8 1 97 98 2000 7 97 2001 5 94 2001 8 1 99 3 64

3 3 5% 90 3 10 3 3 1 65

2 3 3 1 2 66

2 3 1 1 67

1 3 68

1 69

It s my life!! 2 70

3 2 () 10 3 71

2004 20 72

1Walter Y.Oi1971A Disneyland Dilemma:Two-part Tariffs For A Mickey Mouse Monopoly,The Quarterly Journal Of Economics,Vol.LXXXV,No1,pp.77-96. 21989-2002 3199926-65140-143302-314 41998 324 34-35 52003 2003 1 134-137 61992117-153 7 1994 25-31,117-153 8200029-74 91999 Report Leisure no.5531-23 10198719941998 111989-2001 121994121-123 1320026 141991116-128 151992100-112 16199399-111 171994-1995105-117 181996-1997103-115 19199893-105 201999-200094-106 21200196-108 73

22200298-110 231991 10 69-70 241992& 92-9329-47 251992-2002& 262002 2002142-143 271996 & 9421-41 282003 15 292002 54-57 301995 2-50 31(1990 134-155 321988 2 226-227 74

1 TDL HTB TUE NEM SW 1990 15876000 2240507 1794566 1851300 1991 16139000 2364310 1851977 1617300 1992 15815000 3750000 2243733 1891783 1900000 1993 16030000 3902600 2146104 1904234 2020000 1994 15509000 3831100 1805201 1904444 2070000 1995 16986000 4030000 1545000 1921420 2100000 1996 17368000 4250000 1539566 1579118 2150000 1997 16686000 4128900 1621640 1215740 2160000 1998 17459000 4031300 1425000 1421430 2100000 1999 16507000 3901200 1325000 816000 2100000 2000 17300000 3760700 1249036 750000 2000000 2001 22047000 3550000 1096000 538983 1940000 SPL TWS SG KTK PE 1990 1991 1830000 1992 1519000 1993 1516000 2834190 827700 1994 1500000 2058041 1125800 4265500 1995 1327000 1550000 1248700 3014500 1996 1520000 1200892 1092400 2457000 1997 1695000 955000 1186000 2980000 2473000 1998 1810000 750000 970900 2940000 2035000 1999 1555000 656000 781100 2380000 2313000 2000 1580000 574400 735500 1820000 1922000 2001 1387000 453200 593767 1340072 2006000 & 2001 (TDL)(HTB)(TUE) (NEM)(SW)(SPL) (TWS)(SG)(KTK) (PE) 75

2 TDL HTB TUE NEM SW 1990 3000 1550 3000 1800 1991 3000 1550 3000 1800 1992 3000 3900 1800 3000 1800 1993 3000 3900 1800 3000 1800 1994 3400 3900 2000 3000 1800 1995 3400 3900 2000 3000 2300 1996 3400 3900 2000 3000 2300 1997 3600 3900 2000 2500 2300 1998 3670 4200 2200 2300 2400 1999 3670 4200 2200 2300 2400 2000 3670 4200 2200 1500 2400 2001 3900 4200 2200 2300 2400 SPL TWS SG KTK PE 1990 1991 3000 1992 3000 1993 3000 2500 4200 1994 3000 2500 4200 3000 1995 3000 2500 4200 3000 1996 3000 2500 4200 3000 1997 3000 2500 4200 2000 3000 1998 3000 2500 4200 2000 3000 1999 3000 2500 4200 2000 3200 2000 3000 2500 4200 2000 3200 2001 3000 2500 4200 2000 3200 & 76

3 km 1990 36912 27817 17053 14146 14103 10510 22074 16178 33468 25919 1991 37370 27996 16909 14163 14147 10632 22163 16279 34041 26148 1992 37158 28556 16997 14304 14211 10736 22346 16683 34220 26531 1993 37299 28906 17092 14506 14286 10844 22552 17032 34420 26996 1994 37460 29224 17168 14649 14357 10962 22745 17338 34655 247415 1995 37475 29503 17229 14983 14468 11261 22873 17580 34817 27772 1996 37667 29830 17323 14953 14650 11481 23046 17879 35009 28113 1997 37792 30061 17342 15043 14706 11587 23160 18107 35320 28481 1998 38107 30495 17400 15109 14592 11587 23293 18327 35338 28804 1999 38232 30837 17457 15234 14714 11691 23433 18550 35515 29093 2000 38447 31162 17523 15350 14791 11816 23603 18819 35636 29337 2001 38640 31490 18030 15386 14823 11911 23729 19053 34641 29709 1990 22671 19095 18319 14113 29514 21906 22488 15129 1991 22736 19215 18218 14246 29860 22193 22633 15254 1992 22767 19301 18360 14465 29952 22424 22694 15510 1993 22830 19429 18449 14688 30067 22637 22816 16153 1994 22834 19545 18504 14848 30182 22863 22984 16406 1995 22919 19663 18579 15018 30340 23143 23208 16720 1996 23018 19796 18669 15203 30498 23427 23402 17066 1997 23119 19933 18716 15351 30651 23707 23608 17430 1998 23175 19997 18816 15550 30724 23935 23842 17796 1999 23265 20111 18948 15734 30857 24172 23631 17724 2000 23335 20224 19086 15889 30998 24415 23733 17944 2001 23426 20335 19625 16072 30612 24682 23925 18293 1990 2001 1997 (TDL)(HTB)(TUE) (NEM TWS)(SW)(SPL)(SG)(KTK)(PE) 77

4 100 kwh 1990 19964 3000 8617 10283 16332 42548 3153 9449 9172 1991 20894 3119 8848 10508 16354 43737 3332 9806 9571 1992 20507 3252 8744 10434 16542 43950 3339 9937 9447 1993 20956 3322 8738 10462 16573 44086 3300 10053 9235 1994 22600 3576 9388 11319 17689 47101 3573 10513 3868 1995 22935 3711 9491 11707 18188 47550 3782 10717 10180 1996 23148 3940 9730 12325 18725 47985 3990 11029 10672 1997 23805 3976 9919 12599 18965 49847 4075 11212 11037 1998 23367 4117 10018 12430 19022 50756 4124 10847 10951 1999 23664 4136 10202 12790 19316 51841 4181 11197 11210 2000 24342 4307 10452 13090 19675 52911 4377 11333 9179 2001 23846 4399 10093 12629 19471 52479 4383 10838 9928 5 1000m^3 1990 593333 139944 389299 218940 485660 1839273 133874 259870 254876 1991 611015 139997 389884 224782 490245 1848492 135041 263895 260228 1992 624533 142321 390957 229411 493324 1858623 136817 263722 263466 1993 626054 143420 386295 231680 490415 1829230 137679 262620 264859 1994 637884 135380 988717 239956 473786 1812539 143225 257278 270316 1995 648970 133427 384460 243178 480061 1794676 144010 262510 273840 1996 645121 138335 385030 246030 493558 1764695 145622 267858 276583 1997 652780 138062 383125 244423 493258 1755620 146175 265633 274264 1998 650511 140318 379114 242480 498291 1739203 149868 264640 275234 1999 659994 139961 376180 243821 501476 1760973 146234 269211 277468 2000 661581 140586 373718 244435 501926 1742879 145125 270029 275896 2001 662593 140129 365468 244007 503662 1720613 143802 266841 273957 78

6 TDL HTB NEM SW 1990 37.143 26.376 36.916 26.651 1991 37.103 26.165 36.897 26.622 1992 36.066 25.656 35.900 26.228 1993 34.861 25.353 34.557 25.756 1994 35.188 26.043 35.019 26.374 1995 35.729 26.375 35.558 26.684 1996 36.823 27.158 36.664 27.494 1997 36.357 26.740 36.351 27.025 1998 35.447 25.895 35.560 26.145 1999 35.489 25.669 35.842 25.958 2000 35.589 26.245 35.846 26.554 2001 36.064 26.273 36.513 26.558 SPL TWS SG 1990 35.478 36.916 24.010 1991 35.448 36.897 23.674 1992 34.470 35.900 23.832 1993 33.299 34.557 23.478 1994 33.603 35.019 24.307 1995 34.130 35.558 24.580 1996 35.182 36.664 25.632 1997 34.741 36.351 25.296 1998 33.895 35.560 24.651 1999 33.930 35.842 24.752 2000 34.033 35.846 25.452 2001 34.509 36.513 25.672 15 (TDL)(HTB)(NEM) (SW)(SPL)(TWS) (SG) 79

7 TDL HTB NEM SW 1990 1251876.001 43101.421 123819.199 67326.686 1991 1255539.049 43207.963 124167.656 67497.783 1992 1257357.632 43315.678 124337.555 67694.534 1993 1257122.874 43446.835 124312.511 67966.054 1994 1256488.54 43370.776 124235.07 67832.216 1995 1257544.978 43382.793 124285.912 67879.32 1996 1261251.903 43498.035 124612.689 68081.169 1997 1266919.144 43651.55 125121.11 68337.996 1998 1274639.074 43826.948 125821.684 68614.812 1999 1281909.131 43962.223 126479.301 68815.688 2000 1291881.831 44053.362 127355.592 68913.717 2001 1302335.08 44276.881 128317.626 69247.357 SPL TWS SG 1990 451047.407 123819.199 25440.427 1991 452355.803 124167.656 25498.944 1992 453001.212 124337.555 25540.496 1993 452913.424 124312.511 25567.04 1994 452671.536 124235.07 25533.211 1995 453002.294 124285.912 25517.065 1996 454300.062 124612.689 25567.424 1997 456292.932 125121.11 25643.683 1998 459015.978 125821.684 25743.282 1999 461578.427 126479.301 25829.422 2000 465068.567 127355.592 25914.478 2001 468767.363 128317.626 26056.557 8 (TDL)(HTB)(NEM) (SW)(SPL)(TWS) (SG) 80

8 210 12.7 10580 378.7 14260 569.1 21720 1187.6 23780 1287.7 19480 921.7 16540 738.9 3940 112.8 2830 144.7 13400 510.7 16670 701.1 24940 1319.6 21090 1117.8 16360 751.8 13750 569.0 1080 57.1 540 36.3 10760 372.4 14340 562.8 22610 1181.3 2830 144.7 13400 510.7 16670 701.1 24940 1319.6 25540 1468.5 20700 1081.6 18300 898.8 9640 407.1 km (TDL)(HTB)(NEM) (SW)(SPL)(TWS) (SG) 81