4 31 2030 * ** *** **** ***** 1 1970 10% GDP 2003 9.3 2004 101 2005 9.9%3 9 2006 9 2004 2008 2010 2004 80 B/D 2006 40 B/D( 180 B/D GDP GDP 2 GDPGDP 8 (0.44toe/ (1.8toe/ 2 31 31 2030 2 2-1 31 2030 * ( ** ( *** ( **** ( *****( 1
4 ( 31 8 ( (20 (11 2-131 2-131 * 2-231 ( * 2
4 2-1-1 (a 8 2004 7215 GDP 2.9 8 3 50 8 2008 ( (b 2 3 ( 2 ( (c GDP 2 GDP 2 6 ( ( 90 (d 6 GDP 8 GDP (a ( 41 30 1990 8 3
4 GDP 8 (b 3.7 8 ( 28 GDP GDP 8 (c GDPGDP GDP 2 8 2 ( (d 4 8 GDP GDP 1 GDP 8 3 7 2 2-2 1986 2002 1 2-2-1 31 4
4 1 2-2-2 2-2 GDP 1996 2000 GDP 7.9 1.6 GDP 2-2 90 GDP 96 98 99 GDP 96 0.5 2003 1.6 2-2 GDP (1990 =100 2005 2-2a 2-2b APEC (APEC Energy Database IEA (Energy Balances of OECD countries, Energy Balances of Non-OECD countries 2-2a 3 IEA 96 2000 1 APEC (APEC Energy Database IEA (Energy Balances of OECD countries, Energy Balances of Non-OECD countries APEC EGEDA Expert Group on Energy Data Analysis APEC APEC IEA OECD IEA IEA 5
4 APEC IEA APEC 91 IEA 2-2b *IEEJ APECAPEC Energy DatabaseIEAEnergy Balances of OECD countries, Energy Balances of Non-OECD countries 2-3 ktoe 2-2a 6
4 2-3 IEA IEA 2-2-3 1990 (2-2a2-2b 96 2 97 2000 4 4 2-4 97 2000 2001 2-4 ( ( (ktoe APEC (APEC Energy Database 7
4 86 94 9596 3 97 4 98 3 2 99 8 2000 1.16 01 1.22 95 01 2-5 95 10 4 ton 2-5 Indigenous Production,Coal(revised Indigenous Production,Coal Primary energy supply,coal(revised Primary energy supply,coal EDMC 2 IEA 2-6 Coal All-Old IEA APEC 2 8
4 2-6 * Coal All Coal APECAPEC Energy DatabaseCoal IEAEnergy Balances of OECD countries, Energy Balances of Non-OECD countriescoal All-old 2-2-4 2-7a ( 2-7b ( IEA 94 91 2-8 IEA 2-9 APEC IEA 96 IEA APEC 96 2-2a 9
4 2-8 ktoe 2-2a 10
4 11 2-9 ktoe 2-2a
4 2-10 ktoe 2-2a IEA APEC 93 IEA 12
4 ( IEA APEC IEA IEA IEA 3 IEA APEC 93 2-2-5 APEC IEA 2-3 2-3-1 GDP GDP 6 GDP 2 ( 2004 GDP 16,040 15,491 15,403 11,243 8,815 2-11 GDP2004 3 1 2 ( 13
4 2-3-2 GDP GDP 2004 2.2 4.2 GDP 2-12 GDP2004 2-3-3 ( 2004 9,667 9,125 8,700 7,954 7,406 8 3.7 8 2 4.5 8.4 2-13 2004 [ ] 4.5 8.4 1 3 2 ( 14
4 15 2-3-4 2-14 100 100 2-3-5 2-15 (
4 16 2-3-6 2-16 2002 1,583 665 2,136 2,700 3,081 2,112 2,034 1,506 [ kwh] 1,583 665 2,136 2,700 3,081 2,112 2,034 1,506 [ kwh] 3 3-1 31 3-1 (GDP 2 ( ( ( CO 2 (GDP 2 ( ( ( CO 2 (GDP 2 (GDP 2 ( ( ( ( ( ( CO 2
4 19862002 2003 2030 1 3-2 3-2 19872004 GDP GDP 3-2 GDP 3-3 GDP 3-3 GDP 4 17
4 2030 ( 2030 2005 4 2030 3-4 3-4 GDP 7.6 6.4 6.7 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.4 9.4 9.3 11.0 11.8 11.2 1990-2002 2002-2030 13.4 12.9 14.0 [%] 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 ( GDP (3-5 2002 8.3 2030 9.9 2002 4.3 2030 5.0 7 3 3-5 18
4 IEA 4 4-1 4-1 / 2002 5.4 2030 14.8 2002 2.7 1 2002 51 2030 55 4-1 ( / 4-1 ( / 4-2 8 1 1 1 2002 15% 2030 20 5 4 6 19
4 4-2 ( 4-2 (8 4-3 (8 100 2030 2002 3 4-4 1 2002 20
4 8,280 2030 7 2030 1.7 2002 1 2 ( 2030 2 1 1.5 2002 ( 1 1 4-4 ( 100 2002 2030 1 4-52002 2030 1 ( / 8 2002 2030 1 6.6 21
4 9.4 6 8 3.8 3.0 4-2 4-6 / 2002 1.3 2030 3.8 2002 2.9 2002 62 2030 66 4-6 ( / 4-3 ( / 4-7 8 2002 20% 2030 28 8 22
4 4-7 (8 4-4 (8 4-8 2002 2030 2 1.2 2.5 2 7 4-82002 2030 ( / 8 23
4 4-3 ( / CO2 4-5 1 2002 71 2030 58 1 9 1 5 2030 26 4-5 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 379 456 522 606 131 177 218 269 6 41 65 89 7 13 31 55 5 6 6 6 2 10 14 21 2002 2010 2020 2030 71 65 61 58 25 25 25 26 1 6 8 9 1 2 4 5 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 2002 76 2030 68 16 17 4 7 3 5 4-6 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 393 466 533 614 82 108 130 155 20 38 51 64 0 0 2 4 17 38 43 48 2 7 10 14 2002 2010 2020 2030 76 71 69 68 16 16 17 17 4 6 7 7 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 5 0 1 1 2 4-4 (8 4-7 1 24
4 4-7 1 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 104 124 130 143 32 39 45 53 4 8 9 10 0 0 6 12 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 6 2002 2010 2020 2030 74 71 67 63 23 22 23 24 3 4 5 5 0 0 3 5 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 138 167 185 207 21 28 33 39 1 9 12 13 0 0 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 6 2002 2010 2020 2030 86 81 78 76 13 14 14 14 1 4 5 5 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 50 53 65 79 39 51 61 73 0 8 13 16 5 7 14 23 4 5 5 5 1 2 3 4 2002 2010 2020 2030 50 42 41 39 40 40 38 37 0 6 8 8 6 6 9 12 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 90 88 100 113 19 25 31 37 6 9 11 13 0 0 0 0 2 6 7 9 0 1 2 3 2002 2010 2020 2030 76 68 66 65 16 19 20 21 5 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 2 5 5 5 0 1 1 2 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 30 40 48 57 13 16 22 29 2 8 12 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2002 2010 2020 2030 65 61 57 54 29 25 26 27 5 12 15 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 107 132 158 192 43 65 83 106 0 13 23 35 1 5 9 15 1 1 1 1 0 3 4 6 2002 2010 2020 2030 70 60 57 54 28 30 30 30 0 6 8 10 1 2 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 163 231 262 297 30 38 45 54 2 12 19 27 0 0 0 0 6 9 10 11 0 2 4 5 2002 2010 2020 2030 81 79 77 75 15 13 13 14 1 4 6 7 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 0 1 1 1 Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 90 87 108 132 15 23 28 33 10 13 16 19 0 0 0 0 9 23 25 27 2 2 3 4 2002 2010 2020 2030 72 59 60 61 12 15 16 15 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 7 15 14 13 1 2 2 2 25
4 2002 74 2030 63 2 ( 2002 70 2030 54 2030 10 2002 1 2030 4 LNG 2030 8 2002 6 2030 12 2002 50 2030 39 2030 2030 75 2010 kw 100 kw 4-5 4-9 2030 4 kwh 2.5 kwh 2002 2002 1570 kwh 2030 3.6 5660 kwh (2800 kwh 2 2030 4000 kwh 2002 2800 kwh 2500 kwh 2002 2002 1570 kwh 2030 3.6 5663 kwh 26
4 4-9 ( 5 2030 ( 1 1. 1 ( Mtoe 2002 2010 2020 2030 772 922 1,220 1,594 213 285 424 584 26 79 153 237 7 13 59 111 22 44 54 65 4 17 35 57 1,044 1,360 1,944 2,648 2002 2010 2020 2030 74 68 63 60 20 21 22 22 2 6 8 9 1 1 3 4 2 3 3 2 0 1 2 2 1 27
4 2. 1 EIA/DOE IEA IEEJ / / 3500 3000 ( 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002 2010 2020 2030 ( EIA/DOE:International Energy Outlook 2005, IEA:World Energy Outlook 2004, IEEJ: /, / / : 2030, IEEJ [1] [2] [3] [4] 2030 2005 4 [5]US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, (2005 International energy outlook 2005, DOE/EIA, Washington DC, USA. [6] Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency(OECD/IEA, (2004 World energy outlook 2004, OECD, Paris. [7],, : / 385 2004 [8]APEC Energy Database(http://www.ieej.or.jp/egeda/database/database-top.html [9] Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Energy Agency(OECD/IEA, Energy Balances of OECD countries, Energy Balances of Non-OECD countries, OECD, Paris. : report@tky.ieej.or.jp 28