IPSHU No.28 April, 2002 TEL FAX E_mail: heiwa@hiroshima-u.ac.jp URL: http://home.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/heiwa/
C 2 2 passive defense active defense B52 1950 ICBM 1960 1
damage-limiting prevail Ballistic Missile Defense, BMD civil defense MD MD 2 BMD 3 1 1960 ABM ICBM 1972 5 ABM 2 80 Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI interceptor Hit-To-Kill, HTK X 2
MD 3 3
NMD NMD SDI SDI 1991 1 Global Protection Against Limited Strike, GPALS Bottom-Up Review, BUR NMD Theater Missile Defense, TMD (1) TMD TMD ABM TMD ABM ABM ABM TMD ABM ABM TMD 1993 3 ABM TMD TMD Demarcation Accords 4
1992 ABM (1) Launch on Warning, LOW 1 (2) (3) ABM ABM 3 (2) 5
( MIT ) ( ) 1999 8 10 10 TMD 3,500 5 3 TMD ABM ABM TMD TMD Navy Theater Wide, NTW Light Exo-Atmospheric Projectile, LEAP Theater High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD ABM (3) 6
BMD TMD NMD TMD (1) unilateralism unipolar hegemony R.A. New Isolationism 1950 Cooperative Security (4) CTBT (5) 7
NPT Counterproliferation rogue states of concern (6) W. J. (7) NMD NMD 1999 3 NMD 105 3 NMD (8) (2) NMD 3 WMD 8
1950 300 600 900 91 1300 93 National Intelligence Estimate, NIE 95 11 D. H. 98 7 NIE 95 11 15 5 10 (9) 6 1998 8 2 3 multistaging WMD 9
NMD (10) 3 2 2001 (11) accidental inadvertent unauthorized C 3 I 1995 1 10
NMD (12) (3) NMD NMD NMD 1980 SDI NMD SDI NMD NMD NMD NMD SDI 1999 10 ICBM 20 225 2000 1 7 countermeasures 11
2001 7 NMD NMD 2 (1) NMD NMD 100 20 CBO 140 300 20 CBO 310 100 60 500 CBO 310 710 300 200 500 20 CBO 600 1400 NMD 200 Peña & Corny, Policy Analysis, March 6, 1999, p. 19. 12
2 (2) ( ) 10-15 1991 40-50 2001 50-100 2003 99 2007 299 2007 ( ) 99 (ABL) 299 2006 1499 2005 ( ) M.O Hanlon, Star Wars Strikes Back, Foreign Affairs, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp.72-73 ( 200 2 146 ) NMD 1 100 3000 NMD NMD (13) (1) Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), National Missile Defense (1993-2000): An Overview, pp.3-4. (2) M. Bunn, Yeltsin Suggest Joint Missile Defense, Arms Control Today (ACT), Jan./Feb. 1992, pp.38, 49; The Bush-Yeltsin Summit: Bringing Reality to the Nuclear Balances, Ibid., July/Aug. 1992, pp.18-19; Bunn, The ABM Talks: The More Things Change., Ibid., Sept.1992, pp.16, 18-23. (3) ABM ABM-TMD 2001 2 1 5-7 G. Lewis & T. Postol, Portrait of a Bad Idea, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/Aug. 1997, pp.21-23; J. Pike & M. Corbin, Taking Aim at the ABM Treaty: THAAD and U.S. Security, Arms Control Today, May 1995, p.5. 13
(4) J. Cirincione, The Assault on Arms Control, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jan./Feb. 2000, p.33. (5) M. T. Clark, Arms Control is not Enough, Orbis, Winter 1996, pp.78-79; K.B. Payne, The Case for National Missile Defense, Ibid., Spring 2000, pp.194-195; J. Cirincione, The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain, Foreign Policy, Spring 2000, pp.121-122; W. Kristol & R. Kagan, Toward a Neo-Reganite Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, July/Aug. 1996, pp.20-23. (6) M. T. Clark, The Trouble with Collective Security, Orbis, Spring 1995, pp.257-258; K. B. Payne, Post-Cold War Deterrence and Missile Defense, Ibid., pp.217-220. (7) Clark, Orbis, Spring 1995, pp.245-251; Orbis, Winter 1996, p.73. (8) I. H. Daalder, J. M. Goldgeier & J. M. Lindsay, Deploying NMD: Not Whether, But How, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.6-7, 17-18. (9) 1998 10 13 67 1998 11 3 65-66 68 (10) 2001 2001 6 19 69 M. O Hanlon, Star Wars Strikes Back, Foreign Affairs, Nov./Dec. 1999, pp.70-71. 2000 2 144-145 (11) 2000 2000 6 13 70 2001 2001 5 8/15 82-83 NMD C. L. Glaser & S. Fetter, National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy, International Security, Summer 2001, pp.41-42. (12) C. V. Peña & B. Corny, National Missile Defense: Examining the Options, Policy Analysis, March 6, 1999, pp.6-9; D. A. Wilkening, BMD and Strategic Stability, Adelphi Paper No. 334, May 2000, pp.13-14. (13) W. B. Slocombe, The Administration s Approach, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2000, p.81. 2000 11 28 31 14
NMD BMD TMD NMD NMD 1999 3 NMD 2005 NMD NMD NMD (1) (1) HTK (2) NMD X ABM (3) X X (4) Space Baced Infra-Red System High Earth Orbit, SBIRS-High DSP SBIRS-Low 6 SBIRS-High 24 SBIRS-Low (5) C 3 15
NMD NMD 3 NMD (1) 1 C-1 5 1 20 20 1 X 1 5 DSP SBIRS NMD BMDO 3 NMD 1999 NMD 2002 NMD 2005 3+3 3+5 1 NMD NMD 20 20 100 (2) (2) 2 C-2 1 2010 100 16
3 X 2010 SBIRS-Low (3) 2015 3 C-3 125 125 250 X X (3) NMD NMD 2000 9 NMD NMD NMD ABM NMD NMD 2000 1 7 NMD 2001 5 17
NMD (4) NMD 1 100 3 NMD TMD 18
MD ABM MD 2008 (1) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, p.30; Peña & Conry, op. cit., pp.14-15. (2) Peña & Conry, pp.13-14, 16. (3) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, pp.30-32; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.31-32. (4) 2001 6 26 71-72 19
MD MD (1) MD NMD WMD NMD NMD (1) NMD WMD WMD sameness 20
togetherness WMD NMD TMD (2) comprehensive or constructive engagement MD MD MD 21
WMD WMD NMD NMD ICBM ICBM (3) Single-Shot Probability of Kill, SSPK 0.995 0.75SSPKs 4 100 NMD 25 NMD (4) MD MD 22
submunitions (5) SDI 2001 7 12 2 (6) MD boost-phase terminal-phase mid-course NMD Boost-Phase Intercept, BPI 23
BPI BPI BPI NMD BPI ICBM ICBM BPI MD BPI (7) BPI 70~150 ICBM 200 250~300 20~45 8.5 (8) BPI BPI BPI BPI BPI BPI 24
SPI BPI BPI BPI UAVs Airborne Interceptor, ABI ABI BPI BPI MD ABI BPI ICBM ICBM ABI ICBM ABI ABI ABI ABI UAVs (9) BPI ABM ABM 5 MD BPI ABM BPI ICBM 25
TMD NMD TMD BMD TMD TMD NMD NMD TMD TMD NMD TMD NMD 2001 5 TMD NMD TMD MD TMD 4 2 1000 10 100 20~30 3 Patriot Advanced Capability-3, PAC-3 Navy Area Defense, NAD THAAD NTW 1999 6 8 THAAD PAC-3 TMD NMD 26
(10) TMD NMD TMD NMD TMD NMD TMD ( ) 1993 3 TMD TMD PAC-3 NAD 27
THAAD NTW TMD TMD 650 THAAD NTW THAAD NTW NMD 650 START- 1,700 (11) MD TMD NMD THAAD NTW TMD NMD NTW BPI NMD NMD SPY-1B ICBM 28
NMD SPY-1B NMD 200 (12) 12 2 (1) MD ABM MD ABM 2002 4 5 2004 ABM ICBM 1 3 MD 3 6 a 2 9 (13) 1997 3 TMD TMD ABM 3,500 5 3 TMD TMD NMD NMD TMD ABM 5 29
MD ABM ICBM MD 1 MD ABM MD ABM ABM 15 6 ABM 2002 4 ABM 4 6 2001 11 (14) 12 ABM MD ABM MD ABM MD 30
MD (15) (16) ABM MD 2001 7 ABM MD 1980 SDI ABM MD ABM (1) W. J. Nov. 2000 15-16 2001 7 66 (2) K. Payne, Looking Security Threats: The Case for National Missile Defense, Orbis, Spring 2000, pp.187-196. (3) 1998 10 13 66 G. Lewis, L. Gronland & D. Wright, National Missile Defense: An Indefensible System, Foreign Policy, Winter 1999/2000, pp.124-125; S. Snyder, Pyong-yang s Pressure, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2000, pp.165-166 2000 10 31 66-67 (4) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No. 334, pp. 34-37. (5) G. N. Lewis, T. A. Postol & J. Pike, Why National Missile Defense Won t Work, Scientific American, Aug. 1999, pp. 39-40; Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No. 334, pp. 25-26;L. L. Garwin, A Defense that Will Not Defend, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2000, pp.121-123 2000 12 5 29-31 NIE 1999 9 ICBM 100 2 3 C. L. Glaser & S. Fetter, National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy, International 31
Security, Summer 2001, p.51. (6) 2001 7 20 7 28 12 5 (7) R. L. Garwin, Boost-Phase Intercept: A Better Alternative, Arms Control Today, Sept. 2000, pp. 8-9, 11; Wilkening, Amending the ABM Treaty, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.40-41. J. 2001 6 236-237 Glaser & Fetter, op, cit., pp.53-54, 76-77. (8) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, p.61. (9) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, p.59-60, 65, 67-69; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.42-43. (10) 2001 2001 6 19 70-71 Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, pp.46-48. (11) Ibid., pp.53-57. (12) Peña & Conry, Policy Analysis, March 6, 1999, pp.17-18. (13) Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.33-36. (14) 2001 7 14 8 23 (15) J. Newhouse, The Missile defense Debate, Foreign Affairs, July/Aug. 2001, pp.105-106. MD 2 2001 11 M. Krepon, Lost in Space, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2001, pp. 2-5 2001 6 244-246 2001 7 63-64 2001 6 15 (16) A. A. Pikayev, Moscow s Matrix, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2000, pp. 2000 11 7 31 32
MD MD (2) MD ABM MD MD TMD BPI NMD 1 C-1 100 NMD (1) NMD 2 C-2 3 C-3 MD 1,200 100 (2) MD NMD 33
(1) MD NMD 1 C-1 100 MD BPI MD MD MD (3) (2) MD MD MD 2001 7 MD MD MD START- START- ICBM SLBM ICBM 34
SLBM ICBM ICBM M SS-27 ICBM (4) (3) S300 (5) MD ABM NMD MD MD (1) MD MD (2) MD NATO MD 35
(3) MD (4) ABM ABM (6) 2001 2 NMD S. NMD NMD NMD NMD N National MD (7) NMD GMD MD MD 2000 6 2 G. NATO (8) MD ABM 36
15 ABM MD ABM MD ICBM 2 MD (9) ABM MD MD ABM (1) ABM MD MD (10) (2) (3) 37
NATO (11) MD 5 MD No.2 P. J. ABM MD (12) MD 1999 MD MD BMD MD 38
MD MD 400 300 SLBM 1 2 20 ICBM 5 A 1 ICBM ICBM ICBM (13) ICBM NMD MD MD (14) MD ICBM 5 31 SLBM 2 MRV/MIRV = 2 (15) 39
(LOW) N.Y. MD MD MD NIRA MD (16) strategic reassurance (17) MD MD (1) 1,000~1,300 Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, p.37. (2) Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, pp.37-41, 44; Peña & Conry, Policy Analysis, March 6, 1999, pp.19-20. (3) Daalder & Others, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.15, 19; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, p.38. 40
(4) Daalder & Others, op. cit., p.21; Wikening, Survival, Spring 2000, pp.30, 38-39; Glaser & Fetter, op. cit., pp.43-44. J. 338-340 2000 5 11 (5) Daalder & Others, op. cit., pp.21-22; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, p.38. 14 2000 5 29 2000 6 5 6 6 (6) C. Grand, Missile Defense: The View from the Other Side of the Atlantic, Arms Control Today (ACT), Sept. 2000, pp.14-17; A. J. Pierre, Europe and Missile Defense: Tactical Considerations, Fundamental Concerns, ACT, May 2001, pp. 5-8. 1980 SDI D. S. Yost, Ballistic Missile Defense and the Atlantic Alliance, International Security, Fall 1982, pp.152-156. (7) Pierre, op. cit., p.8. (8) 2001 2 21 (9) 2001 6 12 (10) Daalder & Others, op. cit., p.15; Wilkening, Survival, Spring 2000, p.38,43. (11) 2001 3 29 2001 5 17 (12) 2001 2 31 (13) Daalder & Others, Survival, Spring 2000, p.13. (14) J. Mendelsohn, ACT, April 2000, p.14; Glaser & Fetter, op. cit., pp.58, 81-84; L. Fuerth, Return of the Nuclear Debate, The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2001, pp.99-100. (15) B. Roberts, R. A. Manning & R. N. Montaperto, China: The Forgotten Nuclear Power, Foreign Affairs, July/Aug. 2000, pp. 2000 9 192-197 B. Roberts, The Road Ahead for Arms Control, The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2000, p.222. CIA 2000 8 11 3 2000 4 9 W. J. 2000 11 17-18 Wilkening, Adelphi Paper No.334, pp.18-22. (16) 2001 6 1 9 6 2001 9 4 (17) Daalder & Others, Survival, Spring 2000, p.23. 2001 3 24 41
MD TRW NMD TMD MD MD MD WMD 3 WMD MD WMD WMD MD NPT WMD MD MD 42
(1) MD MD MD MD (1) MD 2003 MD 2 15 480 20 (2) MAD ABM MAD 43
MAD MD 10 3 2 1,700 2,250 MD MD 2002 1 Nuclear Posture Review, NPR (2) (3) MD NMD MD BPI 44
WMD MD MD MD MD MD ICBM SS-18 19 24 2002 03 ICBM SS-27 M (3) SLBM START ICBM START- 2000 4 START- ABM START- MD 45
20 ICBM 5 A ICBM 31 MD MRV MIRV SLBM 31 2 16 4 6 (4) TMD MD NATO MD MD MAD ABM MAD MAD 46
MAD MD MAD MAS (5) (4) MD 1998 9 1 NMD TMD TMD NTWD TMD ABM 4 NMD TMD MD 2003 2007 4 2 1 BPI (6) BPI ICBM 3 ABM 9 BPI 47
5 200 300 TMD NMD MD MD 3 TMD MD (1) MD 9.11 L. J. Korb & A. Tiersky The End of Unilateralism? Arms Control After Sept. 11, Arms Control Today, Oct. 2001, pp.3-7. (2) 2002 2 7 2002 2 1 (3) Russian Nuclear Forces, 2001, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2001, pp. 78-79. (4) Chinese Nuclear Nuclear Forces, 2001, Ibid., Sept./Oct. 2001, pp.71-72. (5) M. MAD MAS 2000 9 43-45 (6) 2002 1 17 48