4 1 2 petroleum
87.3 99.6 94.5 85.9 83.1 97.4 99.6 98.3 81.8 100.0 99.7 96.0 65.5 31.8 97.1 83.8 56.6 97.4 98.9 83.8 34.1 3.5 69.0 19.2 38.4 70.3 48.8 14.5 16.9 26.9 29.1 4.8 10.0 1.3 48.1 0.0 1.8 8.2 0.1 1.2 2008 2 2
[Buckley,2003,introduction] 1973 oil crisis 1 50 15 15 3 3 1990 1 27.30 [,2005,106] 1 2 4 21 2013 2013 244
20 2000 10 10 1 60% 2 3 1997 9 1991 1995
40 1998 4 [Sheehan,2005,65] 1973 1 [, 2008 ] 1 1973 3 10
[Sheehan,2005,65] 80 [NHK, 1996 cf.,cooper,2011 cf.,engdahl,2011] 1973 10 18 9 5 10 3 25 16 8 10 3 1 10 22 11 4
11 25 5 1 25 25 16 15 1974 [Sato,1999,6-7] 11 6 1967 242 1 25 25 15 25 10 4
(reconsider) [Berger,2007,118] 11 14 [, July,29,2013] 11 18 5
11 19 11 22 11 26 12 5 25 12 50 2 2 12 1 12 5 12 8 1 5
[Hook,Gilgen,Hughes,Dobson,2001,30,93] 12 12 1 OPEC OPEC 12 22 1 17 OPEC 12 24 OPEC 17 1974 1 1 11,651 4 1 3 3 4 1973 12 25
[, 1975] 1974 1 2 11 17 11% 1979 [Odell,1986,160] 1 [Engdahl,2011,211] [Berger,2007,115] 1991 [cf.,engdahl,2011,255-261] 1 2 1970 [, 1991,58-59]
OPEC 13 3 OPEC [, 1991 56-57] [Cooper,2011,353-387] 4 1990 130 (too little, too late)
[, 2013] 1991 10 1993 9 2 2 1995 1996 12 1 28 37 2003 2008 7 147.27 2008 2 30 2010 4 85 21
1992 6 400 2000 7 4,400 2010 9 8,300 2010 3,200 1990 1998.7 1985 30 1990 50 2010 60
[, 1999,146-148] 1970 1995 78.6 1980 60 3 2 1960 9 5 OPEC 8 OPEC 1970 1973 1 1979 2 1 2 3
1970 OPEC OPEC OPEC [Buckley, 2003,introduction] 1980 1980 1986 1981 [, 1991,149,161] 1 OPEC 1979 7 OPEC (Slightly below demand) 1979 1985 OPEC
OPEC [, 1991,96] 1995 OPEC 1 2,452 1996 6 1993 10 2 9 OPEC 1996 OPEC OPEC OPEC OPEC OPEC 1995 11 100 OPEC OPEC OPEC
OPEC OPEC 21 [, 2006,255-257] 21 2 2008 1 1,100 2020 1 1,700 4 1970 1980 1 [, 1991, 2 ]
1998.1 1980 2 1979
DPB DPB 18 DPB IMF 7 IMF 3
IMF 1 IMF 2 1980 1980 9 [, 1991,71-73,129,132] 1991 1 29 new world order [, 1991,59-60] 1970 OPEC [Walt,2002,76]
[, 1991,59-6,, 2006,93 ] 3 [Walt,2002,47] [, 1991,62, 1 ] [Brooks,Wohlforth,2008,212] 3 2 2001 5 2030 70% 3 [, 1991,199,201]
[Buckley,2003,intoroduction] 4 21 25 2001 52% 2020 60% 2 1 2 [, 2006,88-90] 1990 [Buckley,2003,12-13] 2002 5 3 2 4
2 1 2 [Zakaria,2008,27] ASEAN 4
[Gilboy,Heginbothan,2012,231-234] 1980 4 1 1990 10% 1993 11 1 60 25 3 21 2010 300 1 700 20% 2009 2005 8 2009 1 5 1 IAEA 2030 3 38 1.8 2030 70
40% 2010 50% 30% CIS 20
LNG 2 30 50 2009 1990 2009
2002 400 100 2009 4 1 [, 1998,67-68] 250 2011 30 4 54 4,000 LNG LNG [Gilboy,Heginbothan,2012,240-241]
[, 2006,3.23] 3 BP 1 1992 1990
3 20 21 21
1 2008 3 6000 85 2009 25 2 3
[cf.,gilboy,2012] 10 4 8
2 1947 [, 2002,163-164] 40 6 2012.7.27
2011 7 ASEAN ASEAN [, 2013,16-17] 2 ASEAN 100 6 120 1986 1992 54 170
1992 5 1992 21 25,000 1988 21 1995 1
21 21 2 1991 12 1988 1988 1992 1987 1988 3
1992 2 1992 4 1992 8 60 27 1989 1992 14 1988
1999 1 6 [, 2002,159] 500 ASEAN [, 1999,27] 2011 6
ASEAN ASEAN 2002 ASEAN 9 ASEAN ASEAN 1 1 2
ASEAN ARF EU 5
ASEAN 2012 [, 2012, 7.27] 2011 6 5 ASEAN 1997
5 1 200 1 60% [, 2006,43-49] 1991 90% AIOC 40% 1 2002 70 [, 2008,203-204] 1995 CIS
1997 2 1 1968 KGB NATO 20% 1995
1995 10 [, 1998, 5,7 ] 1996 1997 1
1997 2 [, 1998, 7 ] 1990 5 1997 3 CIS 5 1 2002 OPEC
1997 5 NATO 1996 6 [Walt,2002,215] 1997 9 82 1997 5 1997 7 6 6 1997 7 21 [Hook,Gilson,Hughes,Dobson,2001,289,303]
2009 12 2 1 4 1 21 2006 30 400 2008 2009 2009 4
2009 11 2030 26 27 [, 2010,175-179] 2009 2010 1 3,000 40
2010 1 200 2 2.5 2009 7 1970 2 7 2009 12
2 1 50 1974 IAEA OPEC 1 40 21
(APEC) 1998 [, 1998,31] 1995 9 1978 1990 1978 1990 2 [Odel,1986,145] [, July 29,2013]
1 1 1995 (UNDOF)
80% 90% WTI 1 2 2 2008 6 2008 7 G8 3 2008 1970 80 1987 68
1990 2006 89.2 2007 86.7 1 2 2008 3 GDP 1 1 / GDP 3.0 17.4 7.9 8.6 2.0 1.7 178 2008 6 98 5,092 80 2,090 1,955 2008 6 (IPEEC) G8
7 G8 1996 2 5 150 60
[, 1999,31] 4 1 2 3 4 100 P3C 60 18 [, 2002,164-165] 21 1996 80 21
[, 2005,105] 21 4 2 1 [, 2006,77] 99 70 21 4
1973 OPEC B 3 [Buzan,1998,95-117] 1 2 3 [Sheehan,2005,65] 3
2 1 3 [Sheehan,2006,73] 1970 2 1990 3 4
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20 3 4 2008 3 29 2013 3 Z 21 1998 1998 1999 1999 2010 2010 2013 2013 1991 NTT 2006 J 1989 1991