000 Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985 1996 1996 4
1997 Banister, 1978; Verplanken et al., 1998 1 5
1996 3 () (I n ) 1 18 I n n P n (1) P n ( 1) = exp exp ( Vn 1 ) I n 1 ( V ) + exp µ ln exp ( V ) n1 + i= ni (3.1) V n1 V ni (i =,3,,I n ) Vn ( +1) I n µ P n (i) (i =,3,,I n ) P n (I n + 1) 6
P n ( i) exp µ ln = exp n1 exp( Vni ) I + 1 n i= ( V ) n ( V ) + exp µ ln exp( V ) exp ( V ) ni I + 1 n i= exp I + 1 i= ni ni i =, 3,, I n + 1 (3.) McFadden (1978) (3.1),(3.) V ni (i =, 3,, I n + 1) V ni / µ Daly (1987) Koppelman and Wen (1998) McFadden McFadden µ, 3,, I n + 1 µ µ = 1 µ = 0 µ µ µ µ Baht, 1997 ( ) µ = µ 0 exp αx n (3.3) µ 0 α X n 7
(3.3) (3.1) (3.) 9 9 1 5,000 1 3 470 9.4% 859 3,171 1,000 63.1% 3,944 18 3 1 18 0 1 3 1 144 41 5 1 191 (6.3) (1.8) (0.) (-) (8.4) 144 5 40 5 441 (6.3) (11.1) (1.8) (0.) (19.4) 3 86 334 93 18 531 (3.8) (14.7) (4.1) (0.8) (3.3) 4 77 4 140 3 671 (3.4) (18.5) (6.) (1.4) (9.5) 5 8 173 8 7 310 (1.) (7.6) (3.6) (1.) (13.6) 6 10 60 4 0 13 (0.4) (.6) (1.8) (0.9) (5.8) 489 18 40 103 76 (1.5) (56.3) (17.7) (4.5) (100.0) ( ): -: 0.05 8
3 1 1 56 1 18 4 18 18 1 3.3 4 3 Coef. t * 10-0.79-4.51 10 0.13 3.79 10 0.0010 0.0-1.1-1.5-4.33 -.07-0. -0.66 0.54 1.11-0.51-1.13 3.46 1.41 10,3,, I n 0.19 0.53 10,3,, I n 0.01 0.36,3,, I n 1.74 0.0,3,, I n 1.63 0.66 50,3,, I n 0.30 0.16 I n +1 0.67 0.40 I n +1-0.88-0.69 I n +1 5.7 0.63 µ 0 1.03 0.6-1.79-1.94-0.80-1.41 4, L(0) = -8.0, L(β) = -158.7, χ = 46.7 (df = 0) 3 χ 46.7 9
µ 0 1.03 1.00 0.46 (= 1.03 exp(-0.80)) 0.17 (= 1.03 exp(-1.79)) 0.077 (= 1.03 exp(-1.79 + -0.80)) 3 3 L(β) -158.7-163.6-163.6-164.9-199.3 3 3 4 30
χ 9.8 (= - {(-163.6) (-158.7)}) (df = ) 3 4 0 (3.4) S E i C j S C i i = (3.4) j S C j C i i S i i C j = j = i NL ML.90.611.605.64-3.503-3.16-3.14-3.148 1-3.503-3.16-3.14-3.148-3.503-3.16-3.14-3.148 C j = j = i NL ML -.059 -.080 -.080 -.067 1.940 1.956 1.960 1.947 1 1.940 1.956 1.960 1.947 1.940 1.956 1.960 1.947 C j = j 1 i NL ML 0.000-0.001-0.00 0.000-0.006-0.003-0.00-0.006 1 0.080 0.064 0.059 0.073-0.006-0.003-0.00-0.006 31
3 4 18 4 3
33
3 Banister, D. (1978) The influence of habit formation on modal choice a heuristic model, Transportation, Vol. 7, pp. 19-3. Bhat, C. (1997) Covariance heterogeneity in nested logit models: econometric structure and application to intercity travel, Transportation Research B, Vol.31, No.1, pp. 11-1. Ben-Akiva, M. and Lerman, S. R. (1985) Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, The MIT Press, Massachusetts. Daly, A. (1987) Estimating tree logit models, Transportation Research B, Vol. 1B, pp. 51-67. Koppelman, F. S. and Wen, C.-H. (1998) Alternative nested logit models: structure, properties and estimation, Transportation Research B, Vol. 3B, pp. 89-98. McFadden, D. (1978) Modeling the choice of residential location, Transportation Research Record, No. 67, pp. 7-77. Verplanken, B., Aarts, H., van Knippenberg, A. and Moonen, A. (1998) Habit versus planned behaviout: a field experiment, British Journal of Social Psychology, Vol. 37, pp. 111-18. mimeograph 000 1996 No. 536/IV-31, pp. 49-58. 1997 No. 569/IV-36, pp. 53-63. 1996 No.13, pp. 535-54. 34