長期エネルギー需給シナリオの検討事例について

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2 IPCC-SRES 2534 IIASA-WEC Shell WEO EC IEO

3 IPCC-SRES IIASA-WEC IAE Shell 2001 WEO2002 EC2003 IEO2003 Special Report on Emission IPCC Scenarios SRES 2000 IIASAGlobal Energy Perspectives WEC Shell International IEA World Energy Outlook EC Energy Needs, Choices and possibilities Scenarios to World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook USDOE International Energy Outlook

4 A1 A2 IPCC B1 -SRES B2 IIASA-WEC IPCC-SRES IIASA-WEC 2

5 GDP 3 / A1 A2 IPCC B1 -SRES B2 A IIASA B -WEC C SD-Vision IPCC-SRES 2534 IIASA-WEC / IIASA-WEC, B

6 GDP 4 / A1 A2 B1 B2 A B C IPCC -SRES IIASA -WEC IIASA-WEC, B OECD /

7 / A1 A2 B2 IIASA -WEC B1 IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 IPCC-SRES IIASA-WEC EJ=23.88M 1.4% IPCC-SRES 2534IIASA-WEC 35 IAE 47 IAE A B C

8 / IIASA-WEC, B / 6

9 / A1 A2 B1 B2 A1 A2 A3 B C1 A B C IPCC -SRES IIASA -WEC IAE A1 C1 A3 A2 A2 CO 2 A B B2 C A1 B B1 / A1 A2 B1 B2 A1 A2 A3 B C1 A B C IPCC -SRES IIASA -WEC IAE WEO2002 EC2003 C1 A3 A1 A1 A2 B2 B1 B A C B 7 A2

10 / A1 A2 B2 B1 A1 B C1 A2 A3 IIASA -WEC IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 A2 A1 A2 B2 B1 A3 WEO2002 EC CO 2 750ppm 650ppm 600ppm 550ppm 450ppm IIASA-WEC IPCC-SRES A B C IAE A B C

11 / A1 A2 B2 B1 A1 B C1 A2 A3 / A1 A2 B2 B1 A1 B C1 A2 A A B C IIASA -WEC IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 A2 A1 A2 B2 B1 A3 A B C IAE IIASA -WEC IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 A2 A1 A2 B2 B1 A3 A B C IAE A B C

12 IIASA-WEC 10 [ ( )] [ ( )] [ ( )] A1 A3 A2 B C1 C2 [ ( )] [ ( )] A3 A1 A2 B C1 C2 [ ( )] [ ( )]

13 USGS (1984) (1987) (1991) (1994) (2000) (1987) (1991) (1994) (2000) 11

14 12 USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis) DOE/EIA

15 OPEC 0.75 OPEC 0.52 Hubbert / Forecasts of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050Jean Laherrere, Peterotech 2003 (New Delhi)

16 Why Carbon Fuels will Dominate the 21th Century s Global Energy EconomyPeter R. Odell, IEW2004

17 EDMC/ / /

18 / A1 A2 B2 B1 A1 B C1 A2 A3 16 A B C IIASA -WEC IPCC -SRES A1 B C1 A2 A1 A2 B2 B1 A3 A B C IAE

19 kwh/ B (IAE) IIASA-WEC B C (IAE) A1 IPCC-SRES 17 A1 B1 A B2 IEO2003-H EC2003 A3 A2 C2 IEO2003-L WEO2002 A (IAE) C1

20 18 IPCC-SRES 38.6 B1 IIASA-WEC 38.6

21 kwh/ IIASA-WEC 19 MWd/t 0.2% 20.9 tnu/twh A1 A2 A3 B C2 C1

22 20 IAE JAERI NRE ISEP WG ISEP 2004 IAE

23 CO 2 IAE 47 JAERI 78NRE 83 ISEP 89 CO 2 / IAE A B NRE JAERI A C C NRE A B B A ISEP C B JAERI AC NRE C ISEP High NRE ISEP 38.72GJ/KL EJ=23.88M Low / IAE A C B 21

24 22 ISEP JAERI NRE 2030

25 kwh NRE ISEP JAERI

26 ~ ~20 GDP ~ ~ , IIASA-WEC GWe GWe CO 2

27 25 IPCC-SRES SRES IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios SRES Illustrative Scenario 40 Marker Scenario A1 AIM A2 ASF ICF Consulting B1 IMAGE RIVM B2 MESSAGE IIASA RIVM IIASA CO2

28 IPCC-SRES 26 GDP / GDP A2 A1 A1 A2 B2 B1 A1, B1IIASA Lutz, 1996 A2 B B1 B2 A1 B1 A2 B2 GDP / A1 A2 B1 B2

29 IPCC-SRES EJ/ kWh=3.6MJ) A1 A2 B1 B2

30 IPCC-SRES EJ/ kWh=9.33MJ) A1 A2 B1 B2

31 IPCC-SRES EJ/ kWh=3.6MJ) A1 A2 OECD1990 OECD1990 OECD OECD B1 B2 OECD1990 OECD1990 OECD OECD

32 IPCC-SRES EJ/ kWh=9.33MJ) A1 OECD1990 A2 OECD1990 OECD OECD B1 B2 OECD1990 OECD1990 OECD OECD

33 IPCC-SRES 31 kwh/ 38.6 B1 B1

34 IPCC-SRES 32 [ ] Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IPCC A1FI A1T A1B 40 A1

IPCC-SRES 33 SRES SRES CO2463 ppm 623 0.8 2.6 2050 2100 478 1099 1.4 5.

35 IPCC-SRES 33 SRES SRES CO2463 ppm [ ] Technical Summary, A report accepted by Working Group I of the IPCC but not approved in detail, IPCC

36 IPCC-SRES 34 A1 21 A1 A1B A2 B1 A1 21 B2 A2 B1 A1

37 IIASA-WEC A1 A A2 A3 B (1) GWP CO 2 (1990)) / A B C B C1 C C

38 IIASA-WEC (2) 36

39 IIASA-WEC 37 / (3) GDP GDP

40 IIASA-WEC GDP /

41 IIASA-WEC / A1 B 39 (4) A2 C1 A3 C2

42 IIASA-WEC / A1 A2 A3 + + B C1 C2 40

43 IIASA-WEC 41 A1 B C /

44 IIASA-WEC kwh/ 42 A1 A2 A3 + + B C1 C2

45 43 IIASA-WEC kwh/ 38.6

46 IIASA-WEC GWe kWe

47 IIASA-WEC 45 A1 A2 B A3 A3 B C1 C2 A1 A2 C2 MWd/t 0.2% 20.9 tnu/twh C1

48 IIASA-WEC (5) B A2 CO ppm 46 A1 A3 C1 B C2 650ppm 600ppm 550ppm 450ppm

49 A B C CO 2 1) mill/kwh BAU CO 2 2) 100 CO 2 2) ) 1) IPCC 550ppm WRE550 AC B 30 2) CO BAU 35 3) OLG GRAPE A BAU IPCC-SRESB2B C 2030 A A IGCC CO290

50 IAE 48 A BAU B CO C CO 2-30 A B C A B C

51 IAE 49 / A BAU / B CO2-100 / C CO2-30

52 IAE 50 / A BAU / B CO2-100 / C CO2-30

53 kwh/ IAE A BAU LWR FBR 51 kwh/ kwh/ B CO2-100 C CO2-30 FBR FBR LWR IGCC IGCC LWR

54 IAE 52 kwh/ A BAU LWR FBR kwh/ kwh/ B CO2-100 C CO2-30 LWR FBR FBR IGCC LWR IGCC

55 Shell GDP / / / 8 23 GDP GDP

56 Shell Dynamic as Usual EJ/ Spirit of the Coming Age EJ/

57 Shell GJ/ China India Korea Mexico Brazil EU Australia Japan US OECD Thailand PPP 25000$/ 15000$/ Energy Needs, Choices and possibilities 10000$/ Scenarios to 2050, Shell International Ltd. (2001) 5000$/

58 Shell % per annum / 2% per annum Source: based on USGS mean estimates, June, 2000 EJ/ NGL % per annum 3% per annum ,000 EJ (2.2 boe) + 5,000 EJ (1.0boe) 15,000 EJ (2.6boe) Source: based on USGS mean estimates, June 2000 and IPCC 2000 for unconventional Energy Needs, Choices and possibilities Scenarios to 2050, Shell International Ltd. (2001) boe

59 57 WEO2002 GDP / / /

60 WEO GDP 1995 /

61 WEO / /

62 WEO2002 / 60 OECD

63 WEO kwh/ kwh/

64 WEO kwh/ kwh/ OECD

65 WEO / /

66 WEO / GWe

67 EC GDP / PPP

68 EC2003 GDP GDP PPP / /

69 EC / /

70 EC kwh/

71 EC / /

72 EC CO 2 / /

73 IEO2003 GDP 71 / L H R H R L H R L

74 IEO2003 / / L R H L R H L R H L R H L R H L R H 72

75 IEO2003 kwh/ / L R H L R H L R H L R H L R H L R H 73

76 kwh/ L R H L R H L R H

77 IEO GWe GWe

79 = GDP 7 EDMCGDP/ 2002 GDP GDP 1.2% 0.6% 0% GDP GDP/

80 JAERI 78 CO 2 *1 A GWe GWt 2050 * B C e 2050 GWt * CO * *3 B CO 2 GW ( e) B C A *2 (GWt) A C

81 JAERI 79 A A: B: C: B C

82 JAERI kWh A B C A: B: C:

83 JAERI 81 A A: B: C: B C

84 JAERI 82 A FCV A: B: C: B FCV C FCV

85 LNG 18.09$/bblOE 23.20$/bblOE High $/bbloe High+ LNG formula 0.8% % Low 0.4% % High Low High $/bbl 2129$/bbl High $15/bbl Low

86 84 4,967 5,121 5,108 4,742 4, , , , , , LNG $/t $/t $/bbl ,063 2,026 1,865 1,656 1,285 m 2 1,670 1,638 1,532 1,420 1, km km NRE 2010/ %, 2020/ %, 2030/ %

87 kl NRE 85 LNG 2030

88 kl NRE 86 LNG 2030

89 kwh NRE LNG

90 88 NRE CO

91 =100 GDP

92 ISEP ,361 12,693 12,753 11,763 4,180 4,802 5,014 4, /2000=1.4%, 2030/2020= A: 0.6%, B: 0.9%, C: -2.6% m 2 1,286 1, km1, km 547 $/bbl , A 116 1,840 1, A 29 B 118 1,844 1, B 29 A 138 1,996 1, A 35 B 149 2,034 1, B 35 C 1,230 1, C 36

93 ISEP J

94 ISEP J

95 ISEP 93 kwh

96 ISEP 94 CO 2 CO

第2章

第2章 2 IPCC SRES 2.1 1 2000 3 15 IPCC 1990 1992 IPCC 8 IPCC 1992 Houghton et al, 1992 IS92aIPCC 1992 a 6 1985 1990 1990 1992 1994 IPCC Alcamo et al, 1994 IPCC 1996 IPCC IPCC 3 IPCC IPCC 3 3 IPCC 3 Special Report