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1 Title Author(s) 2011 年大阪市長府知事選挙における投票行動の規定要因分析 : 有権者の階層に注目して伊藤, 理史 Citation 年報人間科学. 37 P.1-P.15 Issue Date Text Version publisher URL DOI /54581 rights

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3 2 e.g. ecological fallacy b e.g. Lipset = Inglehart = e.g. Verba, Nie and Kim = Verba, Schlozman and Brady Norris

4 Lipset and Rokkan K. Marx Erikson and Goldthorpe e.g. Clark and Lipset Clark et al. Pakluski and Waters Nieuwbeerta e.g. Inglehart = = Clark and Lipset Marx e.g. e.g.

5 4 S. M. Lipset = 2.2 Verba, Nie and Kim = e.g. Verba and Nie Verba, Nie and Kim = Verba, Schlozman and Brady Norris civic skill Verba, Schlozman and Brady Verba, Nie and Kim = Verba, Schlozman and Brady Verba, Nie and Kim =

6 5 2.3 A B A - A - A - A B - B - B - B

7 , a b. b 3.2 EGP ) I+II III IVab+IVc+VIIb V+VI VIIa EGP IVc+VIIb IVab =

8 7 1 N =272 N =682 N % N % N =272 N =682 Mean S.D. Mean S.D. Min Max ab+ c+ b a ) Stata MP. Long and Freese Cramer s V

9 8 3 N N =272 2 Cramer's V n.s n.s d.f. = n.s n.s d.f. =10 ab+ c+ b a n.s n.s d.f. = n.s. = not significant. 4 N N =682 2 Cramer's V n.s n.s d.f. = n.s n.s d.f. =10 ab+ c+ b a n.s n.s d.f. = n.s. = not significant. Cramer s V. n.s. Cramer s V. n.s.. n.s. Cramer s V. n.s.. n.s. Cramer s V. n.s. Cramer s V. n.s. Cramer s V. n.s.. n.s. Cramer s V. n.s.. n.s. Cramer s V. n.s.

10 N =272 N =682 Coef. Robust Robust Robust Robust Coef. Coef. Coef. S.E. S.E. S.E. S.E * *** *** * ** ab+ c+ b ref. a ** ** LL AIC Mcfadden R ***p <.001, **p <.01, *p <.05,, ref., ref )

11 10 5 A - A - A - A B - B - B - B

12 11 ) ) ) ) ) COE J

13 12 EGP R. Erikson and J. H. Goldthorpe EGP SSM the independence from irrelevant alternatives Grrene Stata MP. Clark, T. N. and S. M. Lipset,, The Declining Political Significance of Social Class, International Sociology, ( ):. Clark, T. N., S. M. Lipset, and M. Rempel,, Are Social Classes Dying?, International Sociology, ( ):. Erikson, R. and J. H. Goldthorpe,, The Constant Flux: A Study of Class Mobility in Industrial Societies, Oxford: Clarendon Press. Greene, W. H.,, Econometric Analysis 7th Edition, Boston: Pearson Education. Inglehart, R.,, The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics, Princeton: Princeton University Press.,, Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

14 13 : ( ): a : b: : SSM EGP SIOPS ISEI SSM SSM ( ): Lipset, S. M.,, Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics, New York: Doubleday and Company. Lipset, S. M. and S. Rokkan,, Cleavage Structures, Party System and Voter Alignments: An Introduction, S. M. Lipset and S. Rokkan eds., Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspective, New York: Free Press,. Long, S. J. and J. Freese,, Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata 3rd Edition, Texas: Stata Press. POSSE : : : Nieuwbeerta, P.,, The Democratic Class Struggle in Postwar Societies: Class Voting in Twenty Countries, -, Acta Sociologica, ( ):. VS. Norris, P.,, Democratic Phoenix: Reinventing Political Activism, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Pakulski, J. and M. Waters,, The Death of Class, London: SAGE Publications. POSSE : ( ): I: ( ):

15 14 Verba, S. and N. Nie,, Participation in America, New York: Harper and Row. Verba, S., N. H. Nie, and J.-o. Kim,, Participation and Political Equality: A Seven-Nation Comparison, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Verba, S., K. L. Schlozman, and H. E. Brady,, Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics, Cambridge: Harvard University Press. ( ):

16 15 Voting Behavior in the 2011 Osaka Mayoral and Gubernatorial Election: The Effect of Social Stratification Takashi ITO Abstract: Toru Hashimoto was elected mayor of Osaka City and Ichiro Matsui as governor of Osaka Prefecture in the double election held on November 27, The Hashimoto camp s success in Osaka is considered a typical example of emerging politics in contemporary Japan. However, it is unclear as to what kind of voters support the Hashimoto camp. The media has explained the accomplishments of new political leaders such as those in the Hashimoto camp in Osaka in terms of social stratification, but little empirical research based on reliable social survey data has addressed this question. In this paper, we applied factors of social stratification to analyze voting behavior in the 2011 Osaka double election using data obtained from the Social Survey on Political Attitudes and Civic Participation in Osaka Prefecture. We used a multinomial logit model that considered both candidate selection and voter turnout. The result clarified the following one point with regard to the 2011 Osaka double election: social stratification is not related to candidate selection or voter turnout. Based on this result, the framework of social stratification cannot be used to analyze the Hashimoto camp as an example of the emerging politics in contemporary Japan. The popularity of the Hashimoto camp is the result of majority support that surpasses any presumed differences related to social stratification in either candidate selection or voter turnout. This result suggests that an alteration in voter attitudes is responsible for the rise of contemporary Japan s emerging politics. Key Words : voter behavior, Osaka mayoral election, Osaka gubernatorial election, random sampling survey, Toru Hashimoto

政治参加としての自治・町内会参加者の実証分析

政治参加としての自治・町内会参加者の実証分析 JES JES input S. Verba, N. H. Nie NPO NPO NHK R. Pekanen .... %........................................ N JES Ses Socio-economic states H. E. Brady, S. Verba, K. L. Schlozman a civic skills H. E. Brady,