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1 J. JSNDS 損害保険のための日本全域洪水リスク評価モデルの開発 (2): リスク評価モデルの構築と適用例 長野智絵 1 津守博通 1 稲村友彦 1 佐野肇 2 小林健一郎 3 佐山敬洋 4 寶馨 5 Development of a Japan Flood Risk Model for General Insurance () Development and Application of a Flood Risk Model Chie CHONO 1, Hiromichi TSUMORI 1, Tomohiko INAMURA 1, Hajime SANO 2, Kenichiro KOBAYASHI 3, Takahiro SAYAMA 4 and Kaoru TAKARA 5 Abstract This paper describes a framework to evaluate flood risk in terms of probabilistic distribution of flood damage. The main characteristics of our model are the followings: () flood risk in Japan is evaluated as an exceedance probability curve of flood loss and an annual average loss, () an integrated rainfall-runoff/flood-inundation model is used to estimate the inundation depth in whole Japan, () uncertainties in flood hazard followed by rainfall distribution and levee break and those in flood vulnerability of properties are considered. The model was verified with an application to the plant assets of manufacturing industry. The results showed that the modeled annual average loss of manufacturing industry is in good agreement with the actual -year-averaged loss. This model enables quantitative assessment of flood risk and thus it is helpful for flood risk management in government and other industries as well as insurance companies. Key words: flood risk evaluation, integrated rainfall-runoff/flood-inundation model, probabilistic levee breach model, exceedance probability curve, annual average loss SOMPO Sompo Risk Management & Health Care Inc. Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Insurance Inc. Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University
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3 J. JSNDS a b c 2. 洪水リスク評価の概要 図 1 3. 確率降雨イベントモデル 3. 1 方法 3. 2 結果 検証 図 1
4 4. 降雨流出 洪水氾濫モデル 4. 1 方法 km Leapfrog h s λ M, N M=v x h s, N=v y h s v x, v y x y H H=z+h s, z P Q L Q I Q f A c n kinematic a L a I b I h I q I l I I Runge-Kutta A Q r q f h r g u=q r /A s o n r R 4. 2 入力データ パラメータ設定 km km m Google
5 J. JSNDS キャリブレーション Nash-Sutcliffe NS NS. 図 2 表 1 NS. 図 3 km m /s SJ 図 2
6 表 1 NS Sep-.-. Jul-. Jun-. Jul-. Sep-.-. Aug-. TY.-. Jul-.-. Jul-.-. TY. TY.-. TY.-. Jun-. Jun-.-. Jul-. Jun-Jul.-. Jul-.-. TY 確率破堤モデル 5. 1 方法 図 4 - p i i p i X X / X X X θ, α X, X X A, B AB
7 197 自然災害科学 J. JSNDS 最大浸水面積 約540 km2 浸水拡大時間 約120時間 a 中央防災会議の想定値16 最大浸水面積 約556 km2 浸水拡大時間 約139時間 b 本モデルの計算値 図 3 首都圏広域氾濫シナリオの最大浸水深の比較 図 4 確率破堤モデルの概要
8 p i. P i i P i Ω u i P n Ω web X 5. 3 キャリブレーション p i.p i. 図 5 図 5.. 図 3 R k k P r,i r i P nq q Ω r Ω q 5. 2 入力データとパラメータ設定 図 5
9 J. JSNDS 損害額の評価 6. 1 方法 / D ab ε β(p,qh s ) pq 6. 2 結果 表 2 SJ 7. 洪水リスク評価結果 7. 1 再現期間別の浸水深分布 図 6 km 7. 2 洪水リスク評価モデルの適用例, 表 2 SJ
10 am bm 図 6 表 3 図 7 図 7 OEP, Occurrence Exceedance Probability 図 7 AEP, Annual Exceedance Probability 図 7 表 3.,,,.,,,.,,.,,.,,.,,.,,.,,.,,,,
11 J. JSNDS 表 4,,.,,,,.,,,,.,,,,.,,,,.,,,,.,,,,.,,,,.,,,,.,,,,.,,,, - 表 4 - 表 4 表 3 図 7AEP 8. 結論 a b c
12 .. 謝辞 SOMPO SOMPO 参考文献 Paquet, E., F. Garavaglia, R. Garçon, and J. Gailhard: The SCHADEX method: A semicontinuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation, J. Hydrology,, -,. B - - Kalyanapu, A.J., D.R. Judi, T.N. McPherson, and S.J. Burian: Monte Carlo-based flood modelling framework for estimating probability weighted flood risk, J. Flood Risk Management,, -,. - Bhattarai, R., K. Yoshimura, S. Seto, S. Nakamura, and T. Oki: Statistical model for economic damage from pluvial flood in Japan using rainfall data and socio-economic parameters, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,, -,. B I_-I_ B I_-I_ - GsiDLSelFileServlet JPGIS. ksj/gml/datalist/ksjtmplt-l-b-u.html old_datalist.html
13 J. JSNDS dam.nilim.go.jp/dam/ Motovilova, Y.G., L. Gottschalka, K. Engelanda and A. Rodhe: Validation of a distributed hydrological model against spatial observations, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, -, -,. p. Uno, T., H. Morisugi, T. Sugii and K. Ohashi: Application of a logit model to stability evaluation of river levees, Natural Disaster Science, (), -,. -- Uno, T., T. Sugii and M. Hayashi: Logit model for river levee stability evaluation considering the flood return period, Stractural safety,, -, Kobayashi, K., K.Takara, H. Sano, H. Tsumori and K. Sekii: A high-resolution large-scale flood hazard and economic risk model for the property loss insurance in Japan, J. Flood Risk Management,, -,. - 要 旨 a bc
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