John A. van Beuren 2 Sam J. Tangredi, Anti-Access Warfare: Countering A2/AD Strategies (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2013), pp.

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1 John A. van Beuren 2 Sam J. Tangredi, Anti-Access Warfare: Countering A2/AD Strategies (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2013), pp

2 Thomas Ehrhard Robert Work 2008 maritime reconnaissance-strike complex Michael McDevitt Gary Roughead 3 Thomas Ehrhard and Robert O. Work, Range, Persistence, Stealth, and Networking: The Case for a Carrier-Based Unmanned Combat Air System (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis, 2008), p Michael McDevitt, The Evolving Maritime Security Environment in East Asia: Implications for the U.S.- Japan Alliance, PacNet, No. 22, May 21, 2012, p

3 21 5 James Holmes 6 2 A2/AD 7 5 Admiral Gary Roughead, Chief of Naval Operations, Interview Transcript, Defense Writers Group, A Project for the Center for Media and Security, March 24, James Holmes, Preparing for War with China, The National Interest, August 16, Captain Philip Dupree and Colonel Jordan Thomas, Air-Sea Battle: Clearing the Fog, Armed Forces Journal, June 1,

4 26 interceptive operations David C. Evans and Mark R. Peattie, Kaigun: Strategy, Tactics, and Technology in the Imperial Japanese Navy , (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1997), pp

5 G3M G4M maritime-strike bombers HMS Prince of Wales HMS Repulse , Thomas G. Mahnken, Asymmetric Warfare at Sea: The Naval Battles off Gudalcanal, , The Naval War College Review, Vol. 64, No. 1 (Winter 2011), pp Richard B. Frank, Ending the Pacific War: 'No Alternative to Annihilation, in The Pacific War Companion: From Pearl Harbor to Hiroshima, Daniel Marston, ed. (Oxford, UK: Osprey Publishing, 2005), pp

6 SSBN 9,000 SLBM R-29 SSBN bastions 11 SSBN 12 1 SSBN echeloned defense in-depth 14 2,000 sea denial bastion Vladimir Kuzin and Sergei Chernyavskii, Russian Reactions to Reagan s Maritime Strategy, The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 28, No. 2 (April 2005), p Ibid., pp Robert W. Herrick, Soviet Naval Doctrine and Policy , Volumes 1-3, (New York: Edwin Mellen Press, 2003). 14 National Intelligence Estimate, Soviet Naval Strategy and Programs through the 1990s, NIE /D, October 19, 1982, p

7 21 blue water 15 Tu-16 Badger Tu-22 Backfire Kh-22 Tu-22 Kh , SSGN 1980 SS-N II SSGN SSGN SS-N SS-N John B. Hattendorf and Peter M. Swartz, eds. U.S. Naval Strategy in the 1980s, (Newport, RI: Naval War College Press, 2008), p Maksim Y. Tokarev, Kamikazes: The Soviet Legacy, Naval War College Review, Vol. 67, No. 1 (Winter 2014), p Norman Polmar, The Naval Institute Guide to the Soviet Navy, 5th edition (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1991). 18 Milan Vego, Soviet Naval Tactics, (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1992), p

8 26 Stansfield Turner ,600 90% 1, anti-access/area denial counter intervention 19 Stansfield Turner, Preparing for the Unexpected: The Need for a New Military Strategy, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 61, No. 1 (Fall 1982), p

9 21 PLAN near-seas active defense ASCM ASCM ASCM 052D III Luyang-III 054A II 20 Editorial Board of the Chinese Navy Encyclopedia, Encyclopedia of the Chinese Navy, (Beijing: Haichao Publisher, 1999), p

10 26 Jiangkai-II 056 Jiangdao 022 Houbei 21 ASCM Su-30MKK H-6 ASBM 1, ASBM ASCM ASCM 21 Ronald O Rourke, Chinese Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities, (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, April 2014), pp Andrew Erickson, Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development: Drivers, Trajectories and Strategic Implications, (Washington, D.C.: Jamestown Foundation, 2013). 142

11 absolute defense perimeter 1960 blue belt of defense 24 first island chain second island chain Milan Vego 1 23 Yoji Koda, Commentary: Japanese Perspectives on China s Rise as a Naval Power, Harvard Asia Quarterly, December 24, 2010, p. 11. Bernard Cole, Drawing Lines at Sea, Proceedings, Vol. 137, No. 11 (November 2011), p Robert W. Herrick, The USSR s Blue Belt of Defense Concept: A Unified Military Plan for Defense Against Seaborne Nuclear Attack by Strike Carriers and Polaris/Poseidon SSBNs, Professional Paper No. 111, Center for Naval Analysis, May

12 PLA Milan N. Vego, Naval Strategy and Operations in Narrow Seas, 2d ed., rev. (London: Frank Cass, 2003), pp Peng Guangqian and Yao Youzhi, The Science of Military Strategy, (Beijing: Military Science Publishing House, 2005), pp

13 the battle for the first salvo Electronic Engineering College of the Naval University of Engineering 2 29 David Evans Mark Peattie Shou Xiaosong, The Science of Military Strategy, (Beijing: Military Science Publishing House, 2013), p Zhang Kun and Bi Xiaochun, The Organization and Implementation of Antiship Missile Saturation Attacks, Aerodynamic Missile, No. 11 (2006), p Li Jun, Li Minyong, and Liu Guolin, Research on Maritime Swarming Warfare, Journal of Dalian Naval Academy, No. 1, (2010), p David Evans and Mark Peattie, Kaigun, p

14 ,000 F-18 1, ,500 20% Robert Haddick, The Real U.S.-China War Asia Should Worry About, National Interest, July 25, Nicolae Timenes, Defense Against Kamikaze Attacks in WWII and Its Relevance to Anti-Ship Missile Defense, (Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analysis, 1970), p Tokarev, p Li Dengfeng and Xu Teng, Naval Operational Research Analysis and Application, (Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2007). 146

16 26 30% 180 Sally Paine GDP SCM Paine, The Wars for Asia, , p U.S. Department of Defense, Soviet Military Power: An Assessment of the Threat 1988, (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1988), pp Norman Fiedman, The U.S. Maritime Strategy, (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1988), pp

17 GDP 1 GDP % GDP 1 GDP 11% Bradford Lee 25 6% 3% PPP GDP GDP 50% Yegor Gaider, The Soviet Collapse: Grain and Oil, On the Issues, American Enterprise Institute, April Vladimir Kuzin and Sergei Chernyavskii, p International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2014 edition, external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/index.aspx. 41 Bradford A. Lee, The Economic Context of Strategic Competition, in Strategy in Asia, Thomas Mahnken and Daniel Blumenthal, eds. (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, forthcoming December 2014). 149

18 26 Samuel Eliot Morison Okean Edward Marolda , Alexey Muraviev Samuel Eliot Morison, The Two-Ocean War, (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1963), p Edward Marolda, Ready Seapower, (Washington, DC: Department of the Navy, 2012), p Alexey Muraviev, The Russian Pacific Fleet, (Canberra: Sea Power Center, 2007), p Robert Herrick, p

20 Ehrhard and Robert Work, p Ibid., p

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Microsoft Word - 08_O'Brien_J_最終.doc 1942 6 2 1944 6 1943 2 2 1943 1943 / 109 1943 5 1 1941 12 7 4 1 1944 1 1 1 1942 5 8 1942 6 7 1942 9 15 1942 10 26 8 1942 12 1943 2 1943 4 1943 5 1943 8 1943 11 1943 11 1944 1 The United States Navy at