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1 Tatsuya Tomita team AICS Cafe 2012/1/13

2 Self-introduction 断 絶 の2000 年 部 活 Before 2000 After 2000 無 し ワンダーフォーゲル 部 趣 味 漫 画 漫 画 登 山 沢 登 り ボルダリング 1981 年 : 北 海 道 札 幌 市 にて 誕 生 2000 年 : 北 海 道 から 出 たくて 上 京 + 東 京 工 業 大 学 入 学 2004 年 : 雲 が 好 きだったので 修 士 から 衛 星 観 測 の 研 究 東 京 大 学 に 編 入 2010 年 : 雲 の 数 値 モデルで 学 位 ( 理 学 ) 取 得 登 った 百 名 山 (35 個 ) 利 尻 岳 大 雪 山 トムラウシ 山 十 勝 岳 鳥 海 山 会 津 駒 ヶ 岳 那 須 岳 男 体 山 日 光 白 根 山 両 神 山 雲 取 山 甲 武 信 ヶ 岳 金 峰 山 瑞 牆 山 富 士 山 谷 川 岳 草 津 白 根 岳 四 阿 山 浅 間 山 巻 機 山 白 馬 岳 五 竜 岳 鹿 島 槍 ヶ 岳 水 晶 岳 鷲 羽 岳 槍 ヶ 岳 穂 高 岳 常 念 岳 蓼 科 山 赤 岳 甲 斐 駒 ケ 岳 鳳 凰 山 塩 見 岳 光 岳 石 鎚 山

3 Cloud in Climate Study Various clouds = various brightness = different efficiencies of light-scattering (cooling the Earth) High Mid Low Thin Mid Thick 巻 雲 Cirrus 高 積 雲 Alto-cumulus 積 雲 Cumulus 巻 層 雲 Ciro-stratus 高 層 雲 Alto-stratus 層 積 雲 stratocumulus 積 乱 雲 Cumulonimbus 乱 層 雲 Nimbostratus 層 雲 stratus

4 Radiative Forcing and Climate Change

5 Radiative Forcing Radiative Forcing: Contribution to energy balance Concept to assess global warming Equilibrium condition r (1 ) 2 E S sun Equilibrium + perturbation r (1 ) 2 E S sun = E = r E T 2 4 r E ( T T ) 4 S sun :Solar Beam IPCC-AR4 πr 2 288Wm K Bare Man Green House Gas warming +324 Wm -2 Dark Gray Knit Sweater (entire body coating) cloudy cooling Wm -2 White Coat (70% coating) Rain+wind+etc. Adjusting effect cooling -205 Wm K 255K (man) (clothes) have fever with sweat

6 Radiative Forcing (by wavelength) Missing energy comes from gas absorption c.f.) CO 2, H 2 O, O 3 Liou (2002) visible Radiative energy flux depends on wavelength, wavelength [μm] while optical properties of atmospheric gases/particles depends on wavelength. 2 2hc B ( T ) Energy flux from Solar beam: H 2 O, O 3, Cloud, Aerosol 5 / k T e hc B 1 Energy flux from Earth heat: H 2 O, CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, O 3, Cloud

7 Human activities role as an additional radiative forcing into climate systems after 1700s. Greenhouse gases have strong impact to heat the Earth with less uncertainties, while aerosols has strong impact to cool the Earth with much uncertainties. Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing Industrial Revolution: Steam Engine by Newcomen, 1712; Watt, 1769

8 Aerosol Radiative Forcing , Beijing (photo by Seiki) At Beijing, it is likely to be foggy even though it is not cloudy. Aerosols (Atmospheric Pollution) overcast sky to decrease energy exp(-1) near the ground, particularly around industrial regions.

9 Global dimming by Aerosols Aerosol radiative forcing at the surface by multi-satellite/ground observations. Kim and Ramanathan (2008) r 2 E ds dt (1 ) S sun sun 4 r 16 T (1 ) 3 2 E T 4 dt Energy balance equation ds sun (1 ) 3 16 T dt~-1.2k@china, clear sky (σ~5.67x10-8 α~0.15 T=288K) Land temperature over the South-Eastern Asia decrease by more than 1K by air pollution. Summer Monsoon is weakened by human activities. (Lau et al., 2008) It may affect on Baiu-front, and precipitation pattern.

10 Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing NASA 典 型 的 な 雲 1m -2 あたりの 質 量 ~ 50~100????? g m -2 太 陽 光 の 散 乱 ~ 雲 の 断????????? 面 積 (πr 2 ) に 比 例 フランス 50gの 水 滴 一 個 だと 半 径 は2.3cm 断 面 積 は16.4cm 2 1m 2 の 地 面 のうち 0.164%しか 覆 われない 海 上 の 雲 粒 の 典 型 的 な 大 きさ~ 20????? x 10-6 m 粒 子 数 は1.5x10 9 個 断 面 積 は~ 1.88 m 2 188%も 雲 が 覆 う! 粒 子 サイズが1/2になると 断 面 積 は2 倍 になる! 人 間 の 産 業 活 動 は 硫 酸 などのエアロゾル( 大 気 汚 染 物 質 )を 大 量 に 排 出 し エアロゾルが 水 蒸 気 をまとって 多 量 の 雲 凝 結 核 となる エアロゾルが 多 い 地 域 では 雲 粒 が 小 さくなって 太 陽 光 を 反 射 しやすくなっている

11 MODIS/Aqua-Terra Aerosols Distribution by Satellites NASA After 1980s, NASA has led observation projects using satellite remote sensing. (e.g., ISCCP, ERBE, A-Train) We can estimate radiative forcing by Cloud and aerosols quantitatively. Improving Climate Models

12 Global Warming Projection 国 立 環 境 研 究 所 IPCC TAR/AR4

13 General Circulation Model

14 General Circulation Models (GCMs) Observations (local/global, long/short, accurate/coarse) empirical Boundary Condition Approximation, assumption Initial Condition GCM image Approximation, assumption Correction optimization Good Score with Good observation Comparison, Evaluation predict IPCC AR4 approximation Adding component/interaction Theory(Component1, 2, 3, 4, ) Poor score because of human activity with much uncertainties

15 Development of GCMs General Circulation Models contain: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (fluid+thermo+gravity+coriolis+salinity) Atmospheric circulation Oceanic circulation Phase change/latent heat Vapor cloud,rain Sea-water sea-ice, salinity Land Surface Vegeration, urbanization, cultivation River Soil (heat/water transport) Ice-sheet Radiation (e.g., Solar Incidence) Gas absorption Rayleigh Scattering Mie Scattering by by Cloud, Aerosol Chemistry (e.g., ozone hole) Chemical Reaction Dry/Wet deposition Emission

16 Advances in Simulation Anvil Cirrus >200km 2001 Core ~10km dx~1000km 2007 IPCC-AR4 Hansen et al. (1997) 1988, Dr. James suggest Global Warming 1988, IPCC is established Recently, it is found that poorly resolved cloud causes the most severe error in climate change.

17 Global Cloud Resolution Model, The Earth Simulator, Japan Reproduction of Madden Jullian Oscillation (Miura et al., 2007) horizontal resolution=3.5km ( times heavier than conventional ones: dx~110km) 17

18 Cloud Optical Properties (classic) Descartes Rainbow is introduced in Discourse on Method ( 方 法 序 説 ) (1637) Snell s law: refraction theory sin A sin B v v Application of Maxwell s law to sphere A B m m A B m:refractive index 光 の 気 象 学 color purple yellow red m water θ i (deg) θ(deg) Deriving a major angle to concentrate energy fluxes after Nth refractions. i 2 1 m 1 cos water 2 N 1 θ Obs.

19 Scattering Intensity Cloud Optical Properties (advanced) Liou (2002) Scattering angle Liou (2002) Halo (wikipediaより) Bailey and Hallett (2010) Non-spherical particles has flat planes, where total reflection occurs to a certain angle. Current topics of my research Scattering angle depends on the shape (Analytical derivation is impossible) 1. Ice Nucleation Modeling: Characteristics Aerosol/Supercooled of Ice crystals liquid water Ice Crystals 1. Growth mode differs by temperature Back Estimation scattering is of strong the as Impact aspect ratio of Non-sphericity is large ( at most 30Wm of ice -2 ; Zhang crystals et al., 2004)

20 Differences by schemes Global Simulation (now undergoing) Infrared Brightness Temperature [K] Satellite obs. NICAM-NDW6 Satellite obs. Ice Nucleation Scheme: Meyers et al. (1992) or Phillips et al. (2006) Ice Crystal Shape: Hexagonal Plate (Hex) or Hexagonal Column (Col)

21 Climate Simulation in the Future (unlimited ) None knows the sufficient spatial resolution, and the sufficient combination of cloud/aerosol interaction. (Do uncertainties converge or not in the future?) GCMs need fine spatial resolution to resolve cloud as much as possible. dx~3.5km is the finest at this moment. dx>1km is challenging in the next step (more than times heavier) It is better to treat many species of cloud/aerosol particle as much as possible. Cost~N 2 x M 2 : N/M is the number of cloud/aerosol. (N=5, M=24 at this moment)

橡

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