Nagata - Japan Market for Solar new.ppt [Kompatibilitätsmodus]

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1 Overview of Solar Thermal System in Japan The Japanese Market for Heat Generation by Renewable Energies May 8 th, 2012 Takahiro Nagata New and Renewable Energy Group The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

2 OUTLINE 1. Energy Trend in Japan 2. Solar Thermal for Residential Use 3. Solar Thermal for Commercial Use 4. Activities for Promotion of Solar Thermal

3 Profile of IEEJ -45 years of experience Objectives To conduct sound and objective analyses on energy and economy To contribute to sound development of energy-supplying and energy-consuming industries and improvement of people's life To provide basic data, information and reports necessary for the formulation of appropriate policies. To address environmental problems. To contribute to international cooperation in energy area. Vision of IEEJ - The World Class Think-Tank Consider Energy-Environmental Issues of Japan & Asia from a Global Perspective and Propose Policy Solutions Main Activities 1. Energy Demand-Supply Analyses 2. Climate Change Analyses 3. Geo Political analysis, in particular, on middle east 4. Economic Modeling and Quantitative Analyses 5. Coordinated Research Activity with Affiliated Organizations 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ including APERC (Asia Pacific Energy Research Center) 2

4 Organization Chart as of July 1, 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ 3

5 OUTLINE 1. Energy Trend in Japan 2. Solar Thermal for Residential Use 3. Solar Thermal for Commercial Use 4. Activities for Promotion of Solar Thermal

6 Trends in Energy Consumption in Japan Energy consumption in Japan has increased in the commercial and residential sector final energy consumption [1018J] Real GDP Commercial sector Residential sector Transport sector Industrial sector 18% 14% 23% 45% real GDP [trillion yen : '00 value ] ['90= 100] Commercial sector Residential sector Transport sector Industrial sector (FY) (FY) Source : Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Comprehensive Energy Statistics 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ 5

7 Energy Use in House & Buildings Residential House Energy Use in Residential House 46GJ/family for year 46 GJ/family for a year 35% 2% Cooling Space heating DHW Lights+Applinaces DHW:Domestic Hot Water 28% Office Building 1.6 GJ/m 2 for a year Hot water Heating 35% 17% Cooling+Heating Fan+Pump Lights+Appliances Othes 23% 33% 27% 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ 6

8 MJ(/house year) Residential Energy Consumption by Area 照明 家電他 Light, Elec. Appliance 冷房 Cooling 給湯 Hot Water 暖房 Heating Hokkaido 北海道 Tohoku 東北 Kanto 関東 Hokuriku 北陸 Tokai 東海 Kinki 近畿 Chugoku 中国 Shikoku 四国 Kyushu 九州 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ 7

9 OUTLINE 1. Energy Trend in Japan 2. Solar Thermal for Residential Use 3. Solar Thermal for Commercial Use 4. Activities for Promotion of Solar Thermal

10 Typical data in Japan Collector Area : 4m 2 Water tank : 200L/250L Solar Hot Water Heater (stand alone system) (Selective surface absorber plate) 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ Photo: Yazaki Corp. 9

11 Solar DHW heating system Typical data in Japan Collector Area : 6m 2 Heat storage tank: 300L Heat storage tank Solar Collector DHW:Domestic Hot Water 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ Photo: Yazaki Corp. 10

12 Solar Thermal Market Trends in Japan Installation of Solar Thermal Products thousand unit/year Installation of PV System thousand kw/year Crude oil import cost(cif) 100JPY/kl ,000unit/year in1980 Tied to Oil Price Solar Hot Water Heater ソーラーシステム設置 ( 千台 ) Solar DHW heating system 太陽熱温水器設置台数 ( 千台 ) Crude oil import cost(cif) 原油輸入価格 (CIF)(100) 円 /kl) PV system 家庭用太陽光発電出荷量 ( 千 kw) 65,000unit/year in Source: Solar System Development Association (Japan) 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ New Energy Promotion Council (Japan) 11

13 Conventional Solar Thermal System for House Problems for natural circulation Solar water heater Large, heavy. So it may cause damage to a house. Bad design. Mainly for bathing Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ

14 Recent Solar Thermal System for House Solar Panel Heat Carrier Hot Water Water Storage Tank Unit with Back-up Boiler 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ

15 Recent Solar Thermal System for Apartment New Solar DHW System for Apartment House Handrail Glazed Condens ing boiler Selective surface absorber plate thermal insulation Mixing Storage tank Heat Exchange coil Solar thermal circulating pump operated by solar PV system) Computer-generated imagephoto 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ System

16 Solar Thermal (ST) & PV Combined System PV ST ST PV 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ

17 System Cost 180 with Gas Heater & Floor Heating with Elec. Heater with Gas Heater with Other Solar Water Heater only ガス給湯器 + 床暖房電気式ガス給湯器別途熱源 Heater 太陽熱温水器 160 System 価格 Cost ( 万円 [10,000 ) yen] Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ Panel 集熱面積 Area (m2) [m2] 出展 source : ソーラーシステム : Solar System, NO127(2012 No.127春 )

18 Pay-back Period 太陽熱機器の回収年数 ( 東京都 傾斜角 30 方位角 0 ) 25 太陽熱温水器 3 m2 Solar Water Heater 3m2 ソーラーシステム 6 m2 Solar Thermal System 6m2 ソーラーシステム 4 m2 Solar Thermal System 4m2 エネルギー単価 Energy Cost 10 Pay-back 回収年数 Period ( 年 ) [year] Initial Cost: 850,000 Yen 設備費 85 万円 Initial Cost: 550,000 Yen 設備費 55 万円設備費 27 万円 Initial Cost: 270,000 Yen エネルギー単価 Energy Cost [yen/mj] ( 円 /MJ) 1 0 Kerocine 灯油 LPG(H) Natural 都市ガス Gas Electricity 深夜電力 (mid-night rate) 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ 0

19 OUTLINE 1. Energy Trend in Japan 2. Solar Thermal for Residential Use 3. Solar Thermal for Commercial Use 4. Activities for Promotion of Solar Thermal

20 Commercial Application for Solar System 事業所 Office, その他 etc. 26% 老人福祉 Welfare 施設 Facility 25% Hospital 病院 5% Apartment 集合住宅 5% スホ -ツ施 Sports 設 Facility 8% 太陽熱利用システムの施設の分類 ホテル 温 Hotel, 泉 Spa 学校 学 21% School 校施設 10% 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ

21 Application for Welfare Facility Bath 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ Storage Tank

22 Application for Apartment Solar Panel 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ

23 Application for Office Building Solar Panel 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ Absorption Chiller

24 System Cost :Panel Cost :System Cost Red: Vacuum Type, Blue: Flat Type, Green: Air Type System シスステム価格 Cost [1000 ( 千円 yen/m2] / m2 ) Panel 総集熱面積 Area [m2] ( m2 ) 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ

25 OUTLINE 1. Energy Trend in Japan 2. Solar Thermal for Residential Use 3. Solar Thermal for Commercial Use 4. Activities for Promotion of Solar Thermal

26 Examples of Disincentives for the diffusion of Solar Thermal Systems Lack of Attractive Products Function: Solar Thermal Products are Not well-integrated with boiler. Design: Solar Thermal Products are Not well-integrated with architecture. Lack of Sufficient Maintenance Service Product Repair Service was Not good in case of failure. Lack of Incentives from National Government There are No Subsidies from National Government (Only from Some Local Governments ) Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ 25

27 Solar Energy Utilization & Promotion Forum (established on June 11th, 2009) Promotion of environmental friendly houses and buildings with solar energy Related Organization Expert The Japan Gas Energy Promotion Council Collaboration Government Research Institute Company Solving political and technical issues to promote solar energy Diffusion of solar energy system Preventing global warming 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ 26

28 Market Research Consumers Survey 機器の性能が良くなり これまで以上に光熱費が削 Better performance 減できるようになること Reduction of the initial cost 購入費用の低価格化を図ること 太陽熱利用システムを設置する際の助成制度 ( 補 Enough 助金や低利融資等 subsidies ) が充実すること 機器の軽量化 コンパクト化 ( 屋根への負担軽減 ) を図ること Compact system Comfortable hot water 給湯として十分な湯量 温度が得られること Hot water and heating 暖房にも利用できること 設置費用が充分に回収できることが明示 ( 費用対効果の明確化 ) されること Clear investment vs effect Better design 外観 ( デザイン ) を良くすること 製造メーカーや設置工事者が設置後も機器の保証 Assurance, やアフターサービス after-sales を十分行 service うこと 太陽熱利用量やCO2 削減量などエコが実感できるリモコンやモニターがついていること Monitoring Installation with PV 太陽光発電と一緒に屋根に載せられること 太陽熱利用システムに関する知識や情報が普及す Information about ること solar thermal Others その他 70% 70% 80% 74% 87% 82% 86% 89% 60% 57% 74% 64% 44% 44% 54% 54% 49% 56% 62% 56% 36% 36% 50% 52% 44% 45% 44% 59% 16% 20% 24% 27% 37% 41% 44% 48% 18% 17% 34% 27% 25% 19% 62% 23% 11% 12% 14% 15% 太陽熱利用 ( 現在 )(n=500) 1% 太陽熱利用 ( 過去 )(n=250) 4% PV 太陽光発電 user ( 現在 )(n=50) 2% 3% others いずれも未使用 (n=200) solar thermal user now solar thermal user past Reduction of initial cost Desire for subsidies. Especially by PV users, receiving good subsidies Clarification of investment vs effect Better design Assurance, after-sales service More desire by consumers who do not use PV nor solar thermal 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ 27

29 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ Cost Analysis

30 Potential & Target Flow(10000households) The potential to be introduced and the estimated target To realize low carbon society, reduction of CO 2 25% 40 万戸 Cover all roofs with Photovoltaic 12,900,000-5,300,000 = 7,600,000 Potential households capable of holding on roofs stock(10000) Flow(10000) Target of PV installation 約 760 万戸 Target of Solar thermal system installation(stock) In order to achieve 7.6 million Solar thermal installed to stock houses in 2030, 400 thousand Solar thermal installed in new houses in 2020 is our target.. Subsidy to recover in 10 years as well as PV is required to realize the target. 1Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Renewable energy committee 2012 Institute of Energy Economics, Japan -IEEJ Stock(10000households)

31 Dankeschön

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