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1 Political Situation after the Fukushima accident in Germany! 福島原発事故後のドイツにおける政治情勢 Thomas Breuer, CFA Head of Climate- and Energy Department Greenpeace Germany トーマス ブリュアーグリーンピース ドイツ気候変動 エネルギー部門リーダーファイナンシャル アナリスト
2 History: 1998 Liberalisation of the European Energy Market 欧州エネルギー市場の開放 1999 Foundation of Greenpeace Energy グリーンピース エネルギー設立 2000 Feed-In-Law 固定価格買取法 2002 Nuclear phase out law till 年まで原子力発電の段階的廃止法 2010 Weakening of the feed-in-law 固定価格買取法の弱体化 2011 January: New phase out law till 月 :2037 年までの段階的廃止新法 2011 March: Moratorium on new phase out law closure of 8 reactors out of 17 3 月 : 段階的廃止新法の一時停止 ( モラトリアム )(17 基のうち 8 基の閉鎖 ) 2011 June: End of Moratorium: Decision about the future energy system in Germany and decision how fast reactors have to be closed down 6 月 : 一時停止 ( モラトリアム ) の終了 : ドイツにおける今後のエネルギーシステムの決定と原子炉閉鎖に要する最速時間の決定
3 Party-Positions on nuclear before the Fukushima accident 福島原発事故以前の各政党の立場 Christian Democrats: Phase out but slower キリスト教民主党 : 緩やかな段階的廃止 Liberal Democrats: Phase out but slower / pro nuclear 民主党 : 緩やかな段階的廃止 原子力推進派 Social Democrats: Phase out according to the 2002 law 社会党 :2002 年の法律に基づいた段階的廃止 Green Party: Phase out according to the 2002 law 緑の党 :2002 年の法律に基づいた段階的廃止 Greenpeace: Phase out till 2015 グリーンピース :2015 年までに段階的廃止
4 Party-Positions on nuclear after the Fukushima accident 福島原発事故後の各政党の立場 Christian Democrats: Speed up phase out キリスト教民主党 : 段階的廃止を迅速に進める Liberal Democrats: Speed up phase out 民主党 : 段階的廃止を迅速に進める Social Democrats: Phase out according to the 2002 law 社会党 :2002 年の法律に基づいた段階的廃止 Green Party: Phase out till 2017 緑の党 :2017 年までに段階的廃止 Greenpeace: Phase out till 2015 グリーンピース :2015 年までに段階的廃止
5 Recent polls Germany: 最近の得票率 Parliament Poll Poll 議会 ( 現在 ) CDU 33,8% 30% 33% SPD 23% 23% 25% Green Party 10,7% 28% 24% FDP 14,6% 3% 4% Left Party 11,9% 9% 8% Others 6% 7% 6%
6 Direct effects of the Fukushima Accident for Germany: 福島原発事故がもたらした直接の影響 Christian Democrats lost their stronghold Baden Württemberg after 56 years! キリスト教民主党が地盤 Baden Wurttemberg を 56 年ぶりに失う First time ever the Green Party will form a local government as the Senior partner 緑の党が初めてシニアパートナーとして地方政権を発足 Liberal party leader Westerwelle stepped down from his party-position 自由党党首 Westerwelle が辞任 Christian Democrats and Liberals turn anti-nuclear キリスト教民主党と民主党が反原発に転換 Stress-Test of all nuclear power plants in Europe requested 欧州の原子力発電所全ての耐久度テストを要請 European Parliament gets divided over nuclear 原子力に関して欧州議会が分裂 Since the 11th of March thousands of household changed to renewable energy supply 3 月 11 日以来 何千もの家庭が自然エネルギーによる電力供給に転換
7 Current Situation in Germany ドイツの現状 Nuclear ( 原子力 ) 24,0% Renewable energy share electricity 16,8% ( 自然エネルギーにおける電力のシェア ) TARGET ,0% Avoided CO² Emission ( 回避された二酸化炭素排出 ) 120 Mio. T Installed Capacity MW ( 設備容量 ) MW Renewable Investments bn EUR ( 自然エネルギー投資 ) Jobs in the Renewable Industry jobs ( 自然エネルギー業界雇用数 ) jobs 2050e jobs
8 Renewable Energy Supplier! 自然エネルギー供給者 Total Market 2010: 2010 年総市場数 ( 世帯数 ): Housholds Total Market estimate 04/2011: 2011 年 4 月推定総市場数 ( 世帯数 ): Housholds Greenpeace Energy is a electricity supplier founded by Greenpeace in Germany. グリーンピースエネルギーはグリーンピース ドイツが設立した電力供給者 Greenpeace Energy: Housholds グリーンピースエネルギー :10 万世帯
9 Phase out plan till 2015: 2015 年までの段階的原発廃止計画 : MW nuclear overcapacity + RE + Gas 余剰生産 + 自然エネルギー + 天然ガス MW nuclear RE + Gas + Load management 自然エネルギー + 天然ガス+ 負荷調整 MW nuclear RE + Gas + Load management MW coal MW nuclear RE + Gas + Load management MW nuclear RE + Gas + Load management MW coal RE + Gas 2017 RE + Gas 2018 RE MW coal RE 2020 RE Allways still to MW over maximum need! それでも常に 6,000 から 7,000 メガワット分余剰
10 Technical potential electric power in TWh/a 技術的な潜在電力 (TWh/a) Germany ( ドイツ ): Total final electricity demand 2008: 485 TWh/a 2008 年最終的な電力需要総量 : Solar CSP( 太陽光 CSP): 0 Solar PV( 太陽光 PV): 620 Hydro Power( 水力 ): 65 Wind onshore( 陸上風力 ): 243 Wind offshore( 海上風力 ): 18 Ocean( 海洋 ): 103 Geothermal( 地熱 ): 56
11 Expertcommission of the German Parliament stated in 2010 that 100% renewable energy supply till 2050 is possible! 2010 年 ドイツ議会の専門委員会は 100% 自然エネルギーの供給が 2050 年まで可能であると表明 UBA (Government Environmental Agency: Nuclear phase out till 2017 is possible! ドイツ連邦環境庁 : 2017 年までに原子力の段階的廃止が可能
12 German Population demonstrating against nuclear 反原発デモ 25. March Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Cologne 2011 年 3 月 25 日 ベルリン ハンブルグ ミュンヘンおよびケルンで25 万人 14. March holding vigils in 450 German cities 2011 年 3 月 14 日 450 都市で11 万人がキャンドルナイト 13. March Stuttgart 2011 年 3 月 13 日 ストゥットガルトで6 万人 November Wendland (nuclear waste dump) 2010 年 11 月核廃棄物集積所のウェンドランドで 5 万人 October Munich 2010 年 10 月ミュンヘンで 5 万人 April Hamburg area 2010 年 4 月 ハンブルグ周辺で12 万人 September Berlin 2009 年 9 月ベルリンで 5 万人
13 Latest Polls about nuclear phase out: 原子力発電の段階的廃止に関しての最新世論調査 Direct closure 11% すぐに閉鎖 Within 5 years 52% 5 年以内 Within 22 years 20% 22 年以内 No phase out 17% 段階的廃止なし
14 Dankeschön! ARIGATO!
[FINAL]Thomas B FUKUI 2012 [互換モード]
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ドイツの最新エネルギー政策を学ぶ 原発から自然エネルギーへ生み出される地域経済と雇用 トーマス ブリュアー グリーンピース ドイツ 気候変動 エネルギー部門長 元ドイツ銀行金融アナリスト Thomas Breuer, CFA Head of Climate- and Energy Unit Greenpeace Germany 1 ドイツのエネルギー革命 Energiewende in Germany
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