財政赤字とインフレーション　― 歴史的・理論的整理―

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きみえふじつぐ
5 years ago
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2 Itoh and Shimoi

3 GDP Krugman Barro Hamilton and FlavinBohn IMFWorld Economic Outlook GDPG G

4 Bohn GDPGDP GDP Masson and Mussa1995Chart 3

5 Masson and Mussa Masson and Mussa1995Chart 1 GDP IMF

6 IMF Buiter GDP Barro Brown Homer and Sylla

7 Buiter1985Figure 1 g t g t R P g t GNP R P R t BarroTable

8 t g t t g t P t g t Barro1987 Figure 7 GDP

9 Brown1990Table 8.1 Brown1990Table 8.2 Sargent

10 Sargent1986

12 Sargent1986

13 GDP GDP Maynard

14 OECD Esterly, Rodriguez and Schmidt-Hebbel GDP

15 OECD Esterly, Rodriguez and Schmidt-Hebbel

16 MartinGDP GDP GDP OECDEsterly, Rodriguez and Schmidt-Hebbel GDP Millar

17 IMF M t v = p t y B t 1 1 = E t S t+j p t j =0 r j M t v p t y GDP B t 1 t r S t+j S t S t =St +(M t+1 M t )/p t S t+j B t 1 Cochrane

18 M t p t M t p t {B t 1 S t+j } Sargent and Wallace GDP Cochranev fiscal theory of price level BuiterFTPL Cochrane Cochrane

19 M t v (pt +1 /p t ) b = p t y b M t M t p 0 M v ' 1 b ' ln( p ) ln( ) ' + {ln( p t ' ) ln( y = 0 ' b ' t M v y )} S t sp 0 = B 1 ( r 1) /rs B 1 p 0 =B 1 (r 1)/rs (M v /y) Sargent Sargent and WallaceSargent Broaddus and Goodfriend

20 Herrendorf Herrendorf Herrendorf

21 HerrendorfKydland and Prescott Herrendorf Barro and Gordon Rogoff Akerlof et al. Attanasio et al. GDP GDP Barro FriedmanLucas

22 Walsh SvenssonWalsh ECB Herrendorf Barro and Gordon Cukierman Barro and Gordon Beetsma and Bovengerg Herrendorf

23 Herrendorf Barro Alesina, Roubini and Cohen Barro tax smoothing

24 Alesina, Roubini and Cohen Poterba Alesina, Roubini and Cohen closed rule open rule Alesina, Roubini and Cohen Poterba and Rueben

25 Von Hagen and HardenEU GDP

27 GNE

29 P

30 P.

31 coordination failure Kapstein

32 Krugman

33 Krugman Itoh and Shimoi Bernanke et. al

34 Giovannini Itoh and Shiomi Blinder Svensson Svensson Svensson LucasItoh and Shimoi

35 Svensson Svensson

36 Sargent and Wallace Itoh and Shimoi Itoh and Shimoi Sims

37 Alesina, Roubini and Cohen

40 Akerlof, George A., William T. Dickens, and George L. Perry, The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1996, pp Alesina Alberto, Nouriel Roubini, and Gerald D. Cohen, Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, Attanasio, Orazio, Luigi Guiso, and Tullio Jappelli, The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data, NBER Working Paper Series 6593, Barro, Robert J., Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? Journal of Political Economy 82, 1974, pp , On the Determination of the Public Debt, Journal of Political Economy 87, 1979, pp , Government Spending, Interest Rates, Prices, and Budget Deficits in the United Kingdom, , Journal of Monetary Economics 20, 1987, pp , Inflation and Economic Growth, NBER Working Paper Series 5326, and Gordon, David, Rules, Discretion, and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 1983, pp Beetsma, Roel M. W. J., and A. Lans Bovengerg, Central Bank Independence and Public Debt Policy, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 21, 1997a, pp and, Designing Fiscal and Monetary Institutions in a Second-Best World, European Journal of Political Economy 13, 1997b, pp Bernanke, Ben S., Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, and Adam S. Posen, Inflation Targeting, Princeton University Press, Blinder, Alan, Central Banking in a Democracy, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 82 4, Bohn, Henning, The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits, Quarterly Journal of Economics 113, 1998, pp , The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27, 1995, pp Brown, Cary, E., Episodes in the Public Debt History of the United States, in Public Debt Management: Theory and History, Eds. By Rudiger Dornbusch and Mario Draghi, Cambridge University Press, Broaddus, J. Alfred Jr., and Marvin Goodfriend, Foreign Exchange Operations and the Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 82, Buiter, Willem H., A Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits, Economic Policy, November 1985, pp

41 , The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, NBER Working Paper Series 7302, Cochrane, John H., Money as Stock: Price Level Determination with No Money Demand, mimeo, December 22, Cukierman, Alex, The Inflation Bias Result Revisited, mimeo, Eastely, William, Carlos Alfredo Rodoriguez, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel eds., Public Sector Deficits and Macroeconomic Performance, Cambridge: Oxford University Press, Feldstein, Martin, The Cost and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability, in C. Romer and D. Romer Eds., Reducing Inflation, University of Chicago Press, Friedman, Milton, The Role of Monetary Policy, American Economic Review 58, 1968, pp Giovannini, Alberto, Solutions for Developed Economies, in Budget Deficits and Debt: Issues and Options, A Symposium Sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Hamilton, James, and Marjorie Flavin, On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing, American Economic Review 76, 1986, pp Herrendorf, Berhold, Time Consistent Collection of Optimal Segniorage: A Unifying Framework, Journal of Economic Surveys 11, 1997, pp Homer, Sidney, and Richard Sylla, A History of Interest Rates, 3 rd Ed., Rutgers University Press, Itoh, Motoshige, and Naoki Shimoi, On the Role of Monetary Policy in a Deflationary Economy: The Case for Japan, mimeo, Kapstein, Ethan, B., Workers and the World Economy, Foreign Affairs 75 3, May/June Krugman, Paul R., It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1998, pp , Time on the Cross: Can Fiscal Stimulus Save Japan? mimeo, 1999a., Thinking about the Liquidity Trap, mimeo, 1999b. Kydland, Finn E., and Edward, C. Prescott, Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans, Journal of Political Economy 85, 1977, pp Lucas, Robert E. Jr., Expectations and the Neutrality of Money, Journal of Economic Theory 4, 1972, pp , Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critic, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1, 1976, pp Martin, Paul, The Canadian Experience in Reducing Budget Deficits and Debt, in Budget Deficits and Debt: Issues and Options, A Symposium Sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Masson, Paul, and Michael Mussa, Long-Term Tendencies, in Budget Deficits and Debt: Issues and Options, A Symposium Sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Maynard, Geoffrey, The Economy under Mrs. Thatcher, Basil Blackwell,

42 Millar, Jonathan, The Effects of Budget Rules on Fiscal Performance and Macroeconomic Stabilization, Bank of Canada Working Paper 97-15, Poterba, James M., and Kim S. Rueben, State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market, NBER Working Paper Series 6237, 1997., Do Budget Rules Work? in A. Auerbach ed., Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Empirical Research, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1997, pp , Budget Institutions and Fiscal Policy in the U.S. States, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 1996, pp Rogoff, Kenneth, The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target, Quarterly Journal of Economics 100, 1985, pp Sargent, Thomas, and Neil Wallace, Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Quarterly Review 5, 1981, pp , Rational Expectations and Inflation, Harper and Row, Publishers, New York, Sims, Chiristopher, Econometric Implications of the Government Budget Constraint, mimeo, Svensson, Lars, E.O., Optimal Inflation Target, 'Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts, American Economic Review 87, 1997, pp , How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an era of Price Stability, Paper Prepared for Kansas City Federal Reserve conference, Von Hagen, Jurgen, and Ian J. Harden, Budget Process and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline, European Economic Review 39, 1995, pp Walsh, Carl E., Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers, American Economic Review 85, 1995, pp

財政のサステナビリティと長期金利の動向

財政のサステナビリティと長期金利の動向 * nakaza-t@hoffman.cc.sophia.ac.jp ** yutaka.soejima@boj.or.jp ()*** **** munehisa.kasuya@boj.or.jp No.03-J-7 2003 10 103-8660 30 * **()******* * ** () *** **** 2003 10 (i) (ii) Keywords: government bonds,

財政赤字とインフレーション ― 歴史的・理論的整理―

財政赤字とインフレーション　― 歴史的・理論的整理―