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1 IMES DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES Discussion Paper No. 99-J-16 INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES BANK OF JAPAN

2

3 IMES Discussion Paper Series 99-J * ** *** JEL classification: E52 O33 * ** 1 takuji.kawamoto@boj.or.jp *** 1 fumikazu.taniguchi@boj.or.jp

4

5 1 IC [1998] 9 18 [1999] 6% 15 20% CardWave 8 [1995] 1

6 ATM 3 POS 59 POS J-Debit POS J-Debit 2

7 J-Debit % % issuer acquirer 600 Visa Master American Express JCB Diners

8 IC IC IC 7 7 [1997]

9 Humphrey and Berger[1990] Humphrey and Berger[1990] Humphrey and Berger[1990] 8 Humphrey and Berger[1990] 1 Humphrey and Berger[1990] Humphrey and Berger[1990] Humphrey and Berger[1990] 5

10 (1) (2) (1)+(2)= (3) 1 (4) , ,882 (ACH) ,300,000 (Fedwire, CHIPS) POS () ATM Humphrey and Berger[1990] 1 US$ Wells[1996] Humphrey and Berger[1990] 1987 Wells[1996] 1993 Humphrey and Berger[1990] Wells[1996] ACH Berger Hancock Marquardt[1996] Humphrey and Berger[1990] 6

11 1 Humphrey and Berger[1990] Humphrey and Berger[1990] 1 Humphrey and Berger[1990] Humphrey and Berger[1990] 7

12 2 Visa Master JCB Visa Master

13 Humphrey and Berger[1990] % [1999] 9

14

15 1 1 1 O A B C <OABC>

16

17 <SS> 2 <OABC> 13

18 2 SS 2 A 14 O (4) S A B S C 14

19 IC IC IC IC IC 15

20 IC VisaCash 18 Berger, Hancock and Marquardt[1996] learning economies scale economies scope economies 18 3 IC IC 10 IC IC 16

21 19 availability temporary permanent income Euler 17

22 availability Jappeli and Pagano[1994] Jappeli Pagano GDP proxy loan-to-value ratio =1 NNP 21 availability Balance Sheet Channel Bank Lending Channel (2)

23 Max T -t : å(1 + r ) U ( Ct ) (1) t= 1 T U(C t ) 1-q U ( C t ) = C t (1 -q ) T T -t -t å 1+ r) Ct A0 + å(1 + r) t= 1 t= 1 ( Y (2) A 0 r (2) (1) Euler æ1+ r ö U '( Ct+ 1) = ç U '( Ct ) (3) è 1+ r ø (3) q Ct + 1 æ 1+ r ö = ç (4) Ct è1+ r ø (4) 1 t 19

24 r Hall[1988] (4) 0.2 Campbell and Mankiw[1989] rule-of-thumb consumer Hall[1988] Hall 3 sticky

25 3 PDF 1 compensate U(W/P) [1772]p

26 (1) Debt/Deflation J. [1981] 22

27 % 12% 8% FF FRB FRB 15% FRB % 10% MMF 28 FRB (1) Canner and Luckett[1992] 23

28 FRB 3% 79 4Q 80 4Q 6% 9% GNP % % % 2.0% % % % % % 43.2% 4.9% (1) % % 24

29 % % 7.1% FRB 25

30 accommodate narrow money broad money monetary base M1 narrow money 5 credit aggregates monetary aggregates credit aggregates credit aggregates 34 monetary aggregates 80 monetary aggregates credit aggregates [1988]

31 5 GDP/ GDP M1 27

32

33 35 Ausbel[1991] Canner and Lucket[1992] Calem and Mester[1995] 3 1 funding cost operating cost funding cost total cost 25% 40% funding cost 36 2 switch cost adverse selection 37 switch cost switch cost switch cost switch cost 35 VISA Master 36 Canner and Lucket[1992] 37 29

34 adverse-selection irrationality 38 Convenience User Convenience user 39 consistent misperception systematic Stavins [1996] 30

35 [1996],, Card Wave, , [1998], 9 [1990],, , [1972] [1997], ECOM, CardWave J. [1981],, BP [1998], 7 27 [1988] Credit Aggregates 11 [1999], [1997],, Ausubel, Lawrence M.,[1991], The Failure of Competition in the Credit Card Market, American Economic Review, Vol.81, No.1(March) Berger, Allen N., Hancock, Diana and Qarquardt, Jeffrey C.[1996], A Framework for Analyzing Efficiency, Risks, Costs, and Innovations in the Payment System, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 28, No. 4 (November, Part 2) Calem, Paul S.,and Loretta J. Mester. [1995], Consumer Behavior and the Stickiness of Credit-Card Interest Rates, American Economic Review, Vol.85, No.5(December) Campbell, John Y. and Mankiw, N. Gregory.[1989], Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence, NBER Macroeconmics Annual 4 Canner, Glenn B., and Charless A. Lucket. [1992], Development in the Pricing of Credit Card Service, Federal Reserve Bulletin, (September) Caskey, John P. and Sellon, Jr., Gordon H.[1994], Is the Debit Card Revolution Finally Here?, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review (Fourth Quarter) Chakravorti, Sujit B.[1997], How Do We Pay?, Federal Reserve Bank of 31

36 Dallas Financial Industry (First Quarter) Duca, John V., and William C. Whitesell. [1995], Credit Cards and Money Demand : A Cross-sectional Study, Journal of Money,Credit, and Banking, Vol.27, No.2(May) Hall, Robert E.[1988], Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption, Journal of Political Economy Vol.96 (April) Humphrey, David B.[1998],, Humphrey, David B. and Berger, Allen N.[1990], Market Failure and Resource Use: Economic Incentives to Use different Payment Instruments, The U.S. Payment System: Efficiency, Risk and the Role of the Federal Reserve, Kluwer Academic Publishers Humphrey, David B., Lawrence B. Pulley, and Jukka M. Vesala. [1996], Cash, Paper, and Electronic Payments : A Cross-Country Analysis, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.28, No.4(November) Jappelli, Tullio and Marco Pagano. [1994], Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints, Quarterly Journal of Economics,109(February) Peytrignet,Michel. [1996], Effect of Electronic Money on the Behavior of Monetary Aggregates, paper prepared for the BIS Working Group on the Monetary Policy and Seigniorage Implications of Electronic Money Swiss National Bank Roberds, William. [1997], What s Really New about the New Forms of Retail Payment?, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (First Quarter) Stavins, Joanna. [1996], Can Demand Elasticities Explain Sticky Credit Card Rates?, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Review (July / August) Wells, Kirstin E.[1996], Are Checks Overused?, The Federal reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review (Fall) White, Kenneth J. [1976], The Effect of Bank Credit Cards on the Household Transactions Demand for Money, Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking, Vol.8(February) 32

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