54 III 1971 1988 III 1971 m 2 16,000 1988 109,000 17 6.6 4.5 1974 197173 17) 197881 198687 17 1950
III ( m 2 ) () 1971 16,470 15.53 1972 21,550 30.84 1973 26,817 24.44 1974 24,973 6.88 1975 25,549 2.31 1976 26,212 2.60 1977 27,482 4.84 1978 30,898 12.43 1979 36,896 19.41 1980 43,531 17.98 1981 49,126 12.85 1982 51,860 5.56 1983 53,219 2.62 1984 54,941 3.24 1985 59,050 7.48 1986 74,637 26.40 1987 100,162 34.20 1988 108,839 8.66 197172 1988 m 2 98 1,000 71 78,000 m 2 1,000 m 2 1.5 1988 303,000 m 2 3.2 18) 1971 1988 10 III 1971 140 1987 34.2 1.7 1970 1970 7273 1980 1980 1971 100 198687 III 1980 1988 1971 198687 10 1,450 18 1988 180 258 661 III 1988 47 1971 88 55
56 III 1971 100 3.9 19) 1970 1970 1980 63 1985 1987 1987 77 1970 1980 2 198687 19 10 6.6 1.6 (1) (2)(3)(4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 10) III 3040km 2 1975 34km 2 1988 10km 2
III2 1971 1971 1988 1988 ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) () 1 78,152 2 51,462 980,695 303,220 12.55 5.89 3 37,192 4 31,039 251,292 191,879 6.76 6.18 5 24,856 159,791 6.43 6 14,938 7 17,677 151,153 144,586 10.12 8.18 8 15,106 9 13,687 102,421 87,624 6.78 6.40 10 12,909 65,320 5.06 11 17,134 12 61,783 57,893 3.61 13 16,791 14 10,683 53,635 53,118 3.19 4.97 15 9,669 51,535 5.33 16 10,918 17 8,799 47,441 47,068 4.35 5.35 18 10,320 19 9,144 43,942 41,916 4.26 4.58 20 7,387 38,408 5.20 21 9,515 22 8,075 37,381 37,241 3.93 4.61 23 5,755 24 7,432 37,028 35,492 6.43 4.78 25 6,268 35,231 5.62 26 5,978 27 6,050 34,595 31,801 5.79 5.26 28 11,056 29 6,565 31,723 31,079 2.87 4.73 30 7,226 30,549 4.23 31 5,074 32 7,920 30,537 29,789 6.02 3.76 33 6,576 34 5,935 28,867 28,421 4.39 4.79 35 6,982 27,522 3.94 36 3,371 37 5,820 27,341 26,684 8.11 4.58 38 6,693 39 5,008 26,539 26,447 3.97 5.28 40 7,682 26,343 3.43 41 6,315 42 4,959 23,420 21,519 3.71 4.34 43 4,811 44 4,491 20,703 20,545 4.30 4.57 45 4,924 19,232 3.91 46 3,008 19,152 6.37 47 3,675 16,833 4.58 III III3 GNP (10 ) () () () () 1971 140,390.4 21.0 68.66 24.99 1.74 1972 191,954.2 36.7 70.50 26.00 2.08 1973 252,481.4 31.5 69.22 24.60 2.24 1974 247,917.4 1.8 67.22 23.32 1.85 1975 263,200.4 6.2 65.35 21.83 1.78 1976 280,102.9 6.4 64.48 21.79 1.68 1977 301,526.4 7.6 63.83 21.78 1.63 1978 347,698.0 15.3 63.80 22.01 1.70 1979 424,538.1 22.1 64.75 22.92 1.91 1980 510,503.6 20.2 64.99 22.77 2.13 1981 586,992.4 15.0 63.99 22.45 2.28 1982 632,104.6 7.7 63.32 22.05 2.34 1983 659,057.2 4.3 63.03 21.99 2.34 1984 690,312.7 4.7 62.75 22.27 2.29 1985 753,691.0 9.2 64.26 25.49 2.34 1986 966,779.6 28.3 71.12 37.01 2.88 1987 1,313,861.0 35.9 77.16 39.87 3.75 1988 1,450,297.0 10.4 76.72 35.57 3.88 1197172 2 3 I II 20) 46 1971 87 20 87 4 1988 197273 (36%) 57
58 III4 p c k km2cd w l τ m 2 y dummy1 dummy2 dummy3 dummy4 1986 dummy5 1987 dummy6 1987 dummy7 dummy8 dummy9 1 2pckwlτy III (19) ),,,,,, ( 1 l w k c y P ƒ P τ + = ) )( )( )( )( ( ) ( ) ( + + + + + k k 1.4 m 2
III5 m 2 1971 5.55 82.79 31.17 9.34 21.91 60.45 9.57 12.24 1972 6.97 107.74 39.80 12.00 27.69 77.17 12.27 15.37 1973 9.62 177.87 67.65 17.09 40.72 123.02 20.84 22.85 1974 11.29 217.51 91.54 20.97 44.92 155.92 27.55 24.53 1975 14.17 276.40 118.70 26.79 55.44 197.77 37.30 31.00 1976 16.71 314.00 140.18 31.34 65.61 230.30 42.98 35.84 1977 19.45 349.86 165.07 36.04 75.75 263.04 49.57 40.70 1978 21.00 361.85 176.97 38.48 79.55 278.73 53.19 42.04 1979 23.60 396.92 196.98 42.97 88.02 303.07 58.70 45.20 1980 25.68 415.77 215.10 46.82 95.24 315.69 63.88 47.05 1981 25.96 417.34 219.62 47.47 96.49 315.64 65.11 47.15 1982 29.46 461.00 243.14 53.25 108.23 351.08 72.77 52.28 1983 32.94 507.33 265.41 59.29 120.71 386.76 81.07 57.77 1984 34.93 531.30 273.64 61.77 125.21 396.83 83.78 59.83 1985 38.91 588.45 297.53 68.73 138.57 435.73 92.22 65.46 1986 43.94 637.97 315.11 75.84 152.30 468.31 102.42 71.27 1987 46.07 645.42 318.08 78.34 156.32 471.29 105.47 71.54 1988 48.26 699.34 333.49 81.91 164.90 502.16 108.89 75.03 21) 22) k 23) 21 I II 22 23 59
III 197172 0.1 m 2 1980 III 1987 0.06 10 1971 m 2 83 1988 699 17 1971 m 2 1988 48 m 2 1988 m 2 III 699 m 2 502 m 2 333 m 2 46 40 m 2 43 46 m 2 46 m 2 1988 1971 1971 28 1988 1971 17 1988 1971 1988 11 1971 11 1988 19 Chow1960 1977 0.26 1988 T- IIIes of Equaliy of a Se of Regression Coeff- iciens in Two Regressions 1.4 4 10.35 0.1 n1n2 60
III6 III7 1998 ( )1971 1998 ( )1971 ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) 1 699.34 82.73 1 2 502.16 60.45 2 3 333.49 31.17 3 4 222.05 28.62 4 5 191.20 24.64 5 6 187.75 17.68 8 7 164.90 21.92 7 8 138.29 11.90 17 9 138.27 9.11 28 10 128.51 13.24 13 11 126.78 22.22 6 12 119.98 14.60 10 13 118.54 14.94 9 14 108.89 9.56 26 15 103.23 13.32 12 16 102.49 8.48 33 17 97.81 10.13 21 18 96.38 9.98 23 19 94.74 13.52 11 20 94.63 10.79 18 21 88.73 12.69 14 22 82.29 8.60 32 23 81.91 9.34 27 24 81.59 10.19 20 25 80.78 8.05 34 26 77.14 8.89 29 27 75.03 12.24 15 28 74.10 10.26 19 29 72.82 9.87 24 30 71.07 6.81 43 31 70.56 7.96 35 32 66.63 12.13 16 33 66.63 10.12 22 34 64.68 8.65 30 35 63.78 7.43 37 36 59.71 9.58 25 37 58.89 7.15 41 38 58.58 7.07 42 39 58.57 7.43 36 40 58.16 7.40 38 41 55.75 7.24 40 42 55.35 8.61 31 43 53.12 5.29 46 44 48.26 5.55 45 45 45.51 7.29 39 46 42.70 6.07 44 47 40.18 N.A N.A III () () 1 0.3465 0.1682 8 2 0.3433 0.0865 39 3 0.3124 0.1799 6 4 0.3075 0.2376 2 5 0.3074 0.1522 13 6 0.3048 0.2059 4 7 0.3039 0.1032 36 8 0.2899 0.1471 15 9 0.2845 0.1603 11 10 0.2831 0.1649 9 11 0.2703 0.1984 5 12 0.2547 0.1372 17 13 0.2525 0.1230 22 14 0.2462 0.1036 35 15 0.2421 0.1737 7 16 0.2396 0.0788 43 17 0.2387 0.2080 3 18 0.2335 0.1346 18 19 0.2299 0.1091 30 20 0.2243 0.1118 29 21 0.2223 0.0967 38 22 0.2219 0.1315 20 23 0.2212 0.1623 10 24 0.2196 0.1215 23 25 0.2184 0.2841 1 26 0.2160 0.0777 45 27 0.2154 0.1046 33 28 0.2052 0.1328 19 29 0.2015 0.1516 14 30 0.1982 0.1078 31 31 0.1948 0.1451 16 32 0.1882 0.1602 12 33 0.1815 0.1158 27 34 0.1810 0.1185 25 35 0.1748 0.0978 37 36 0.1739 0.1042 34 37 0.1722 0.1312 21 38 0.1656 0.1175 26 39 0.1615 0.1212 24 40 0.1390 0.1151 28 41 0.1350 0.0788 44 42 0.1327 0.0838 40 43 0.0996 0.0794 42 44 0.0915 0.0610 46 45 0.0830 0.0826 41 46 0.0713 0.1059 32 47 0.0694 N.A N.A 61
III8 1971 0.112 0.106 0.084 0.160 0.162 0.117 0.087 0.152 1972 0.115 0.100 0.079 0.166 0.139 0.123 0.080 0.158 1973 0.130 0.134 0.107 0.165 0.159 0.159 0.112 0.219 1974 0.148 0.180 0.159 0.204 0.180 0.220 0.151 0.230 1975 0.186 0.232 0.204 0.182 0.218 0.276 0.214 0.257 1976 0.197 0.252 0.237 0.209 0.247 0.318 0.254 0.272 1977 0.209 0.263 0.274 0.229 0.270 0.354 0.289 0.282 1978 0.193 0.235 0.267 0.220 0.249 0.339 0.296 0.236 1979 0.193 0.204 0.244 0.197 0.226 0.311 0.304 0.214 1980 0.172 0.180 0.226 0.179 0.207 0.276 0.304 0.178 1981 0.152 0.160 0.221 0.159 0.187 0.250 0.257 0.151 1982 0.156 0.169 0.238 0.166 0.197 0.261 0.276 0.152 1983 0.171 0.179 0.255 0.180 0.215 0.277 0.300 0.163 1984 0.179 0.178 0.263 0.184 0.217 0.277 0.307 0.166 1985 0.196 0.158 0.271 0.204 0.233 0.289 0.326 0.179 1986 0.219 0.093 0.225 0.225 0.248 0.293 0.358 0.198 1987 0.222 0.064 0.128 0.226 0.218 0.228 0.361 0.202 1988 0.224 0.071 0.133 0.221 0.188 0.166 0.343 0.201 III III m 2 62
III m 2 s 1s 2 s k s s 1s 2sd ss (20) F (k, n1n22k) (sdk) s (n1n22k) k, n 1n 22k F m 2 (20) n1136n2646 I (19) s1l.28s217.63k 16 F 8.76 F 1.66 2.03 63
III III 1971 1987 P + 1 = α 0 + α1y 2 + α 2c 1 + α 3k + α 4k 1 α w P + 1 = α 0 + α1y 2 + α 2c 1 + α 3k + α 4k 1 + α 5w 1 + α 6l + α7τ 1 dummy1 + α 8τ 1 dummy2 + α 9τ 1 dummy3 + α10τ dummy1 + α11τ dummy 2 2 + α 12τ dummy3 + α13 + i dummy4 + i i = 0 1971 1987 38 + 5 1 + α 6l + α 7τ 1 dummy7 + α 8τ 1 dummy8 + α 9τ 1 dummy9 + α10τ dummy7 + α11τ dummy 8 + α12τ dummy 9 α0 23.0850 15.36 y-2 α1 0.4918 3.59 c-1 α2 0.3383 3.72 k α3 3.7712 4.86 k-1 α4 1.8336 2.26 w-1 α5 0.4791 4.50 l α6 1.2833 12.30 τ-1dummy1 α7 0.1952 1.15 τ-1dummy2 α8 0.2694 0.83 τ-1dummy3 α9 0.2582 1.10 τ dummy1 α10 0.3279 1.69 τ dummy2 α11 0.4928 1.48 τ dummy3 α12 0.4206 1.74 120 α0 21.1579 41.29 y-2 α1 0.2687 5.27 c-1 α2 0.1758 5.65 k α3 1.4692 2.70 k-1 α4 1.3496 2.50 w-1 α5 0.7593 31.00 l α6 1.1968 27.55 τ-1dummy7 α7 0.0197 0.18 τ-1dummy8 α8 0.1579 1.68 τ-1dummy9 α9 0.1804 1.90 τ dummy7 α10 0.1324 1.12 τ dummy8 α11 0.2492 2.44 τ dummy9 α12 0.2853 2.81 633 198687 1987 III III III III 1986 1987 64
III101 III102 1971 1987 38 β + β P + β y + β c + β + β P + β y + β c + P = 0 1 1 2 1 3 β 4 + β 5w 1 + β 6l + β7τ dummy1 + β dummy 2 + 8τ β9τ dummy3 d 2 + β 10+ i ummy4 + i i = 0 k 1971 1987 P = 0 1 1 2 1 3 β 4 + β 5w 1 + β 6l + β7τ dummy7 + β d + 8τ ummy8 β9τ dummy9 k β 0 18.0826 6.71 p +1 β 1 0.1163 0.99 y-1 β 2 0.0935 1.10 c β 3 0.1846 4.12 k β 4 0.6535 2.28 w-1 β 5 0.7624 10.74 l β 6 1.0130 6.68 τ dummy1 β 7 0.0601 1.56 τ dummy2 β 8 0.0795 1.66 τ dummy3 β 9 0.0629 1.57 123 β 0 14.7442 6.11 p +1 β 1 0.2643 2.29 y-1 β 2 0.0619 1.33 c β 3 0.0622 2.58 k β 4 0.0173 0.10 w-1 β 5 0.7110 7.86 l β 6 0.8321 6.07 τ dummy7 β 7 0.0421 1.99 τ dummy8 β 8 0.0408 2.08 τ dummy9 β 9 0.0419 2.04 636 k k k III10 III10 III10 k 65
66 III m 2 1.0 0.8 0.04 2.0 0.08 0.06 III III III 24) 24
67 III m 2 II 2000 2000 III11 2000 1978 6.0 1978 1988 1988 k III12 III12 m 2 1988 285,000 2000 415,000 2.7 III12 1988 6,000 m 2
III111 (100m 2 ) () ( ) () ( ) () (m 2 ) () 1971 2,759 5.51 71,677 33.85 387,951 18.35 92,095 6.78 1972 2,900 5.10 96,215 34.23 422,626 8.94 113,087 22.79 1973 3,015 3.96 160,586 66.90 503,504 19.14 118,478 4.77 1974 3,143 4.23 207,167 29.01 639,565 27.02 77,166 34.87 1975 3,231 2.81 269,364 30.02 718,821 12.39 74,973 2.84 1976 3,312 2.52 318,570 18.27 772,734 7.50 82,714 10.33 1977 3,388 2.30 369,882 16.11 869,687 12.55 86,917 5.08 1978 3,452 1.87 394,399 6.63 948,849 9.10 90,263 3.85 1979 3,504 1.50 437,839 11.01 1,036,076 9.19 94,490 4.68 1980 3,556 1.49 469,331 7.19 1,152,960 11.28 87,332 7.58 1981 3,604 1.36 477,713 1.79 1,254,422 8.80 81,803 6.33 1982 3,653 1.35 535,538 12.10 1,332,142 6.20 76,969 5.91 1983 3,700 1.27 594,846 11.07 1,389,623 4.31 77,390 0.55 1984 3,742 1.15 621,589 4.50 1,469,264 5.73 79,689 2.97 1985 3,774 0.86 688,099 10.70 1,547,041 5.29 85,771 7.63 1986 3,821 1.23 751,706 9.24 1,647,564 6.50 91,739 6.96 1987 3,862 1.07 768,750 2.27 1,712,359 3.93 105,934 15.47 1988 3,910 1.25 825,930 7.44 1,844,427 7.71 112,350 6.06 1989 3,984 1.90 1,032,410 25.00 1,951,403 5.80 112,350 0.00 1990 4,059 1.87 1,238,893 20.00 2,064,583 5.80 112,350 0.00 1991 4,133 1.84 1,424,728 15.00 2,184,328 5.80 112,350 0.00 1992 4,208 1.82 1,624,186 14.00 2,311,018 5.80 112,350 0.00 1993 4,284 1.79 1,835,330 13.00 2,445,056 5.80 112,350 0.00 1994 4,360 1.77 2,055,570 12.00 2,586,869 5.80 112,350 0.00 1995 4,435 1.74 2,281,682 11.00 2,736,906 5.80 112,350 0.00 1996 4,512 1.72 2,509,848 10.00 2,895,645 5.80 112,350 0.00 1997 4,588 1.70 2,735,734 9.00 3,063,590 5.80 112,350 0.00 1998 4,665 1.67 2,954,590 8.00 3,241,276 5.80 112,350 0.00 1999 4,742 1.65 3,161,410 7.00 3,429,269 5.80 112,350 0.00 2000 4,819 1.63 3,351,091 6.00 3,628,165 5.80 112,350 0.00 197188 19892000 2000 m 2 12 3.1 0.7 0.35 1992 13 II 1991 2000 1.4 11 0.7 1992 68
III112 (100m 2 ) () ( ) () ( ) () (m 2 ) () 1971 5,764 4.36 42,692 31.87 344,863 16.82 105,639 0.65 1972 6,007 4.21 56,245 31.75 382,626 10.95 129,221 22.32 1973 6,321 5.22 86,131 53.14 456,021 19.18 160,467 24.18 1974 6,704 6.05 108,950 26.49 585,832 28.47 119,522 25.52 1975 6,987 4.23 144,077 32.24 687,586 17.37 119,254 0.22 1976 7,285 4.26 175,210 21.61 747,551 8.72 130,737 9.63 1977 7,492 2.84 206,854 18.06 838,625 12.18 129,799 0.72 1978 7,706 2.86 224,979 8.76 928,178 10.68 139,826 7.73 1979 7,907 2.61 254,515 13.13 1,023,025 10.22 148,472 6.18 1980 8,075 2.12 278,021 9.24 1,127,809 10.24 131,769 11.25 1981 8,246 2.12 286,825 3.17 1,218,221 8.02 119,062 9.64 1982 8,436 2.31 327,319 14.12 1,281,440 5.19 116,731 1.96 1983 8,584 1.75 369,250 12.81 1,334,392 4.13 109,706 6.02 1984 8,720 1.59 389,479 5.48 1,384,770 3.78 114,164 4.06 1985 8,886 1.90 438,511 12.59 1,468,369 6.04 111,059 2.72 1986 9,027 1.59 489,469 11.62 1,538,169 4.75 113,586 2.28 1987 9,149 1.35 509,257 4.04 1,589,710 3.35 128,793 13.39 1988 9,307 1.73 543,559 6.74 1,674,918 5.36 140,912 9.41 1989 9,517 2.25 576,172 6.00 1,772,065 5.80 140,912 0.00 1990 9,726 2.20 610,740 6.00 1,874,841 5.80 140,912 0.00 1991 9,936 2.15 647,384 6.00 1,983,578 5.80 140,912 0.00 1992 10,145 2.11 686,227 6.00 2,098,627 5.80 140,912 0.00 1993 10,355 2.07 727,402 6.00 2,220,348 5.80 140,912 0.00 1994 10,564 2.02 771,048 6.00 2,349,125 5.80 140,912 0.00 1995 10,774 1.98 817,310 6.00 2,485,375 5.80 140,912 0.00 1996 10,984 1.95 866,344 6.00 2,629,524 5.80 140,912 0.00 1997 11,193 1.91 918,327 6.00 2,782,036 5.80 140,912 0.00 1998 11,403 1.87 973,426 6.00 2,943,392 5.80 140,912 0.00 1999 11,612 1.84 1,031,829 6.00 3,114,106 5.80 140,912 0.00 2000 11,822 1.80 1,093,736 6.00 3,294,724 5.80 140,912 0.00 1 III11 6 2 1.4 2000 0.235 112000 III 13 112000 11 2000 1991 2000 1.4 69
III113 ( ) k 112000 1971 0.73501 0.067 1972 0.78939 0.054 1973 0.79730 0.008 1974 0.75561 0.042 1975 0.77032 0.015 1976 0.79021 0.020 1977 0.78988 0.000 1978 0.80212 0.012 1979 0.82486 0.023 1980 0.82696 0.002 1981 0.84185 0.015 1982 0.87774 0.036 1983 0.90369 0.026 1984 0.91502 0.011 1985 0.93094 0.016 1986 0.96961 0.039 1987 1.02500 0.055 1988 1.07020 0.045 1989 1.10535 0.035 1990 1.07627 0.029 1991 1.04719 0.029 1992 1.01811 0.029 1993 1.02811 0.010 1994 1.03811 0.010 1995 1.04811 0.010 1996 1.05811 0.010 1997 1.06811 0.010 1998 1.07811 0.010 1999 1.08811 0.010 2000 1.09811 0.010 III14 2000 112000 49 26 III13 14 0.7 12 0.7 III15 12 0.7 1991 1992 2000 19711989 1992 0.7 1992 2000 26 2,000 m 2 16.6 1,000 m 2 1988 10.4 III131998 1999 2000 1991 275,000 m 2 2000 2,000 m 2 112000 36.8 38.8 70
III12 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) ( ) () ( ) () () () 1971 34.9 15.07 36.6 20.48 4.70 0.099 1972 46.7 33.58 45.9 25.62 1.54 0.101 1973 58.0 24.22 54.5 18.63 5.97 0.137 1974 53.0 8.52 54.6 0.24 3.03 0.169 1975 53.2 0.39 55.8 2.14 4.83 0.209 1976 54.5 2.41 59.2 6.02 8.51 0.228 1977 56.8 4.18 62.7 6.03 10.44 0.244 1978 64.3 13.15 68.2 8.79 6.18 0.234 1979 78.5 22.08 76.0 11.33 3.17 0.230 1980 93.3 18.93 82.0 7.98 12.08 0.225 1981 104.2 11.69 88.8 8.20 14.83 0.209 1982 109.6 5.13 97.0 9.27 11.47 0.212 1983 112.3 2.48 106.6 9.91 5.05 0.211 1984 115.7 3.09 117.0 9.78 1.11 0.199 1985 128.3 10.87 130.1 11.13 1.35 0.196 1986 180.0 40.25 184.7 42.04 2.65 0.149 1987 262.5 45.88 259.1 40.25 1.31 0.108 1988 284.6 8.39 302.0 16.55 6.11 0.098 1989 344.9 14.22 0.105 1990 367.6 6.57 0.116 1991 375.8 2.23 0.128 1992 371.0 1.28 0.146 1993 371.3 0.08 0.162 1994 373.0 0.46 0.177 1995 376.2 0.84 0.191 1996 380.8 1.22 0.205 1997 386.8 1.59 0.216 1998 394.5 1.98 0.225 1999 403.8 2.37 0.231 2000 415.0 2.76 0.235 12 0.7 III14 45 27 1992 2000 m 2 0.35 13 0.35 2000 III17 III16 112000 12 0.7 71
III12 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) ( ) () ( ) () () () 1971 7.6 15.05 8.0 20.18 4.45 0.130 1972 9.4 23.50 9.4 18.36 0.11 0.139 1973 12.0 27.81 10.6 12.81 11.65 0.179 1974 11.9 1.10 11.5 8.07 3.45 0.198 1975 12.8 7.65 12.7 10.37 1.01 0.227 1976 13.4 4.72 14.0 10.25 4.21 0.241 1977 14.3 6.60 15.4 9.84 7.38 0.251 1978 16.1 12.20 17.0 10.86 6.09 0.240 1979 18.6 15.84 19.0 11.46 2.08 0.237 1980 21.6 16.13 20.9 9.92 3.38 0.231 1981 25.2 16.71 22.8 9.31 9.51 0.213 1982 27.0 7.17 24.6 7.98 8.83 0.220 1983 27.9 3.25 26.2 6.46 5.99 0.229 1984 29.0 3.93 27.7 5.55 4.52 0.226 1985 29.8 2.66 28.9 4.31 2.98 0.239 1986 30.4 1.93 30.4 5.06 0.01 0.250 1987 32.2 5.99 32.5 6.93 0.87 0.240 1988 35.6 10.66 34.6 6.64 2.79 0.236 1989 36.6 5.77 0.232 1990 37.7 2.98 0.233 1991 38.7 2.60 0.236 1992 39.6 2.26 0.239 1993 41.0 3.56 0.240 1994 42.3 3.35 0.241 1995 43.7 3.16 0.243 1996 45.0 3.00 0.246 1997 46.3 2.85 0.248 1998 47.5 2.72 0.252 1999 48.8 2.60 0.255 2000 50.0 2.50 0.259 0.35 1996 2000 24.2 26.1 12 0.7 12 13 12 1992 0.7 13 12.3 0.35 6.3 1997 13 1.4 72
III13 11 1991 2000 1.4 11 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 11 ( ) () ( ) () () () () 1991 375.8 2.23 352.4 4.13 6.22 0.128 0.246 1992 371.0 1.28 327.1 7.17 11.82 0.146 0.375 1993 371.3 0.08 309.0 5.56 16.80 0.162 0.504 1994 373.0 0.46 294.5 4.69 21.06 0.177 0.632 1995 376.2 0.84 283.3 3.78 24.69 0.191 0.760 1996 380.8 1.22 275.0 2.93 27.77 0.205 0.888 1997 386.8 1.59 269.1 2.15 30.43 0.216 1.016 1998 394.5 1.98 265.3 1.44 32.76 0.225 1.144 1999 403.8 2.37 263.1 0.82 34.85 0.231 1.272 2000 415.0 2.76 262.4 0.28 36.77 0.235 1.400 III13 11 1991 2000 1.4 11 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 11 ( ) () ( ) () () () () 1991 38.7 2.60 37.2 1.34 3.84 0.236 0.350 1992 39.6 2.26 36.3 2.37 8.19 0.239 0.467 1993 41.0 3.56 35.7 1.65 12.80 0.240 0.584 1994 42.3 3.35 35.0 2.06 17.36 0.241 0.701 1995 43.7 3.16 34.2 2.27 21.71 0.243 0.817 1996 45.0 3.00 33.4 2.35 25.78 0.246 0.934 1997 46.3 2.85 32.6 2.34 29.52 0.248 1.051 1998 47.5 2.72 31.9 2.26 32.93 0.252 1.167 1999 48.8 2.60 31.2 2.13 36.02 0.255 1.284 2000 50.0 2.50 30.6 1.97 38.81 0.259 1.400 13 0.35 2000 112000 12 0.7 13 0.35 112000 III 2000 12 0.7 11 13 0.35 2000 92 12 0.7 73
III14 11 III16 12 2000 ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) () 1 103,146 52,388 49.2 2 49,048 26,697 45.6 3 61,726 33,770 45.3 4 58,919 32,626 44.6 5 59,136 33,380 43.5 2000 ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) () 1 103,146 56,357 45.4 2 49,048 28,383 42.1 3 61,726 35,907 41.8 4 58,919 34,615 41.3 5 59,136 35,257 40.4 6 78,022 44,117 43.5 7 44,445 25,244 43.2 8 33,905 19,295 43.1 9 60,599 34,777 42.6 10 30,972 17,852 42.4 11 59,497 34,302 42.3 12 39,533 23,050 41.7 13 42,369 24,719 41.7 14 54,415 31,842 41.5 15 284,638 166,588 41.5 16 54,488 32,093 41.1 17 232,283 138,205 40.5 18 84,056 50,214 40.3 19 1,314,039 785,436 40.2 20 42,075 25,358 39.7 21 58,143 35,050 39.7 22 35,877 21,727 39.4 23 48,343 29,330 39.3 24 36,540 22,431 38.6 25 27,876 17,346 37.8 26 48,551 30,465 37.3 27 70,067 44,441 36.6 28 54,828 34,957 36.2 29 54,273 35,105 35.3 30 237,101 154,184 35.0 31 42,124 27,394 35.0 32 27,146 17,773 34.5 33 439,277 289,210 34.2 34 67,486 44,620 33.9 35 24,884 16,781 32.6 36 40,395 27,491 31.9 37 39,785 27,369 31.2 38 53,344 36,699 31.2 39 26,794 18,474 31.0 40 214,826 149,911 30.2 41 124,984 87,326 30.1 42 70,185 50,097 28.6 43 430,820 310,588 27.9 44 36,237 26,318 27.4 45 35,160 25,883 26.4 46 32,255 23,782 26.3 6 78,022 46,666 40.2 7 44,445 26,637 40.1 8 33,905 20,353 40.0 9 30,972 18,768 39.4 10 60,599 36,747 39.4 11 59,497 36,132 39.3 12 42,369 25,976 38.7 13 39,533 24,259 38.6 14 54,415 33,513 38.4 15 54,488 33,692 38.2 16 42,075 26,159 37.8 17 35,877 22,403 37.6 18 284,638 177,991 37.5 19 84,056 52,606 37.4 20 58,143 36,648 37.0 21 48,343 30,527 36.8 22 232,283 147,258 36.6 23 1,314,039 835,758 36.4 24 27,876 17,770 36.3 25 36,540 23,292 36.3 26 48,551 31,657 34.8 27 70,067 45,848 34.6 28 54,828 35,940 34.4 29 27,146 17,953 33.9 30 42,124 28,046 33.4 31 54,273 36,177 33.3 32 24,884 16,825 32.4 33 67,486 45,671 32.3 34 237,101 161,148 32.0 35 439,277 301,950 31.3 36 40,395 27,786 31.2 37 39,785 27,375 31.2 38 26.794 18,448 31.1 39 53,344 37,057 30.5 40 124,984 88,141 29.5 41 70,185 50,033 28.7 42 214,826 153,938 28.3 43 36,237 26,149 27.8 44 35,160 25,580 27.3 45 32,255 23,478 27.2 46 430,820 315,823 26.7 74
III 111213 m 2 1988 9,000 75
III 111213 m 2 2000 12 0.7 16 2,000 112000 1988 16 2,000 2000 13 0.35 2000 116,000 150m 2 76
III15 12 0.7 1992 12 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 12 ( ) () ( ) () () () () 1991 375.8 2.23 375.8 2.23 0.00 0.128 0.128 1992 371.0 1.28 313.5 16.58 15.49 0.146 0.847 1993 371.3 0.08 289.6 7.64 22.02 0.162 0.863 1994 373.0 0.46 275.0 5.04 26.29 0.177 0.879 1995 376.2 0.84 266.8 2.99 29.09 0.191 0.895 1996 380.8 1.22 263.0 1.39 30.92 0.205 0,908 1997 386.8 1.59 262.7 0.14 32.10 0.216 0.920 1998 394.5 1.98 264.9 0.85 32.85 0.225 0.929 1999 403.8 2.37 269.2 1.63 33.34 0.231 0.936 2000 415.0 2.76 275.2 2.25 33.67 0.235 0.939 III15 12 0.7 1992 12 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 12 ( ) () ( ) () () () () 1991 38.7 2.60 38.7 2.60 0.00 0.236 0.236 1992 39.6 2.26 34.7 10.38 12.36 0.239 0.941 1993 41.0 3.56 33.6 3.16 18.04 0.240 0.942 1994 42.3 3.35 32.8 2.40 22.60 0.241 0.944 1995 43.7 3.16 32.2 1.75 26.28 0.243 0.946 1996 45.0 3.00 31.8 1.18 29.27 0.246 0.949 1997 46.3 2.85 31.6 0.69 31.70 0.248 0.952 1998 47.5 2.72 31.5 0.27 33.68 0.252 0.956 1999 48.8 2.60 31.5 0.10 35.30 0.255 0.960 2000 50.0 2.50 31.7 0.42 36.61 0.259 0.965 104,600 III19 1971 2,800 1988 1971 1970 1980 1971 22,000 2000 6,100 5.8 112000 205,200 12 0.7 12 0.7 1992 144,900 13 0.35 0.19 89 0.43 2.20 0.48 77
III17 13 0.35 1992 13 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 13 ( ) () ( ) () () () () 1991 375.8 2.23 375.8 2.23 0.00 0.128 0.128 1992 371.0 1.28 329.6 12.30 11.17 0.146 0.497 1993 371.3 0.08 312.1 5.30 15.95 0.162 0.513 1994 373.0 0.46 301.9 3.28 19.08 0.177 0.529 1995 376.2 0.84 296.7 1.69 21.12 0.191 0.544 1996 380.8 1.22 295.4 0.45 22.42 0.205 0.558 1997 386.8 1.59 297.0 0.53 23.23 0.216 0.569 1998 394.5 1.98 300.9 1.33 23.72 0.225 0.579 1999 403.8 2.37 306.9 1.97 24.01 0.231 0.585 2000 415.0 2.76 314.5 2.50 24.20 0.235 0.589 III17 13 0.35 1992 13 (a) (b) (b)(a) (a) 13 ( ) () ( ) () () () () 1991 38.7 2.60 38.7 2.60 0.00 0.236 0.236 1992 39.6 2.26 36.2 6.33 8.40 0.239 0.590 1993 41.0 3.56 35.9 0.95 12.38 0.240 0.592 1994 42.3 3.35 35.7 0.51 15.65 0.241 0.593 1995 43.7 3.16 35.7 0.12 18.34 0.243 0.596 1996 45.0 3.00 35.7 0.21 20.54 0.246 0.598 1997 46.3 2.85 35.9 0.50 22.36 0.248 0.601 1998 47.5 2.72 36.2 0.74 23.85 0.252 0.605 1999 48.8 2.60 36.5 0.96 25.07 0.255 0.609 2000 50.0 2.50 36.9 1.14 26.06 0.259 0.614 2000 1.34 100 III20 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 1988 1.8 1995 12.2 12 0.7 2000 1995 2000 9.7 78
III18 13 2000 ( m 2 ) ( m 2 ) () 1 103,146 67,339 34.7 2 61,726 42,513 31.1 3 49,048 33,777 31.1 4 58,919 40,919 30.5 5 78,022 55,000 29.5 6 59,136 41,740 29.4 7 44,445 31,505 29.1 8 33,905 24,066 29.0 9 60,599 43,207 28.7 10 59,497 42,472 28.6 11 30,972 22,152 28.5 12 39,533 28,463 28.0 13 284,638 205,383 27.8 14 54,415 39,294 27.8 15 42,369 30,593 27.8 16 54,488 39,475 27.5 17 232,283 169,566 27.0 18 42,075 30,743 26.9 19 84,056 61,496 26.8 20 1,314,039 961,827 26.8 21 35,877 26,306 26.7 22 58,143 42,783 26.4 23 48,343 35,741 26.1 24 36,540 27,217 25.5 25 27,876 20,776 25.5 26 48,551 36,703 24.4 27 70,067 53,270 24.0 28 54,828 41,741 23.9 29 27,146 20,818 23.3 30 54,273 41,744 23.1 31 42,124 32,457 22.9 32 237,101 183,926 22.4 33 67,486 52,518 22.2 34 24,884 19,407 22.0 35 439,277 342,754 22.0 36 40,395 31,903 21.0 37 39,785 31,442 21.0 38 26,794 21,185 20.9 39 53,344 42,345 20.6 40 124,984 100,554 19.5 41 214,826 173,657 19.2 42 70,185 56,916 18.9 43 36,237 29,647 18.2 44 430,820 354,292 17.8 45 35,160 28,935 17.7 46 32,255 26,553 17.7 79
III19 11 (a) 150m 2 (b) 150m 2 (c) (d) (e) ( ) ( 11) (b)(a) ( ) (b)(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () 1971 2.8 2.8 0.0 1,459.2 0.19 1972 3.6 3.6 0.0 1,625.5 0.22 1973 5.5 5.5 0.0 1,938.8 0.29 1974 6.7 6.7 0.0 2,409.8 0.28 1975 8.5 8.5 0.0 2,759.4 0.31 1976 9.8 9.8 0.0 3,020.0 0.32 1977 11.1 11.1 0.0 3,341.8 0.33 1978 11.7 11.7 0.0 3,552.9 0.33 1979 12.7 12.7 0.0 3,811.9 0.33 1980 13.5 13.5 0.0 4,097.9 0.33 1981 13.5 13.5 0.0 4,301.8 0.31 1982 15.0 15.0 0.0 4,604.4 0.33 1983 16.5 16.5 0.0 4,754.2 0.35 1984 17.0 17.0 0.0 4,964.3 0.34 1985 18.7 18.7 0.0 5,206.9 0.36 1986 20.3 20.3 0.0 5,319.9 0.38 1987 20.6 20.6 0.0 5,398.1 0.38 1988 21.8 21.8 0.0 5,646.2 0.39 1989 25.0 25.0 0.0 5,816.8 0.43 1990 28.2 28.2 0.0 6,154.2 0.46 1991 30.9 52.0 21.0 6,511.1 0.80 1992 33.8 71.9 38.1 6,888.8 1.04 1993 36.8 90.4 53.7 7,288.3 1.24 1994 39.8 107.6 67.8 7,711.0 1.40 1995 42.8 123.9 81.1 8,158.3 1.52 1996 45.8 139.9 94.1 8,631.5 1.62 1997 48.6 155.7 107.1 9,132.1 1.71 1998 51.3 171.8 120.4 9,661.7 1.78 1999 53.8 188.2 134.4 10,222.1 1.84 2000 56.1 205.2 149.1 10,815.0 1.90 80
III19 12 (a) 150m 2 (b) 150m 2 (c) (d) (e) ( ) ( 12) (b)(a) ( ) (b)(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () 1971 2.8 2.8 0.0 1,459.2 0.19 1972 3.6 3.6 0.0 1,625.5 0.22 1973 5.5 5.5 0.0 1,938.8 0.29 1974 6.7 6.7 0.0 2,409.8 0.28 1975 8.5 8.5 0.0 2,759.4 0,31 1976 9.8 9.8 0.0 3,020.0 0.32 1977 11.1 11.1 0.0 3,341.8 0.33 1978 11.7 11.7 0.0 3,552.9 0.33 1979 12.7 12.7 0.0 3,811.9 0.33 1980 13.5 13.5 0.0 4,097.9 0.33 1981 13.5 13.5 0.0 4,301.8 0.31 1982 15.0 15.0 0.0 4,604.4 0.33 1983 16.5 16.5 0.0 4,754.2 0.35 1984 17.0 17.0 0.0 4,964.3 0.34 1985 18.7 18.7 0.0 5,206.9 0.36 1986 20.3 20.3 0.0 5,319.9 0.38 1987 20.6 20.6 0.0 5,398.1 0.38 1988 21.8 21.8 0.0 5,646.2 0.39 1989 25.0 25.0 0.0 5,816.8 0.43 1990 28.2 28.2 0.0 6,154.2 0.46 1991 30.9 30.9 0.0 6,511.1 0.48 1992 33.8 151.3 117.5 6,888.8 2.20 1993 36.8 143.3 106.5 7,288.3 1.97 1994 39.8 138.8 99.0 7,711.0 1.80 1995 42.8 136.7 94.0 8,158.3 1.68 1996 45.8 136.4 90.7 8,631.5 1.58 1997 48.6 137.4 88.8 9,132.1 1.50 1998 51.3 139.3 87.9 9,661.7 1.44 1999 53.8 141.8 88.0 10,222.1 1.39 2000 56.1 144.9 88.8 10,815.0 1.34 81
III19 13 (a) 150m 2 (b) 150m 2 (c) (d) (e) ( ) ( 13) (b)(a) ( ) (b)(d) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () 1971 2.8 2.8 0.0 1,459.2 0.19 1972 3.6 3.6 0.0 1,625.5 0.22 1973 5.5 5.5 0.0 1,938.8 0.29 1974 6.7 6.7 0.0 2,409.8 0.28 1975 8.5 8.5 0.0 2,759.4 0.31 1976 9.8 9.8 0.0 3,020.0 0.32 1977 11.1 11.1 0.0 3,341.8 0.33 1978 11.7 11.7 0.0 3,552.9 0.33 1979 12.7 12.7 0.0 3,811.9 0.33 1980 13.5 13.5 0.0 4,097.9 0.33 1981 13.5 13.5 0.0 4,301.8 0.31 1982 15.0 15.0 0.0 4,604.4 0.33 1983 16.5 16.5 0.0 4,754.2 0.35 1984 17.0 17.0 0.0 4,964.3 0.34 1985 18.7 18.7 0.0 5,206.9 0.36 1986 20.3 20.3 0.0 5,319.9 0.38 1987 20.6 20.6 0.0 5,398.1 0.38 1988 21.8 21.8 0.0 5,646.2 0.39 1989 25.0 25.0 0.0 5,816.8 0.43 1990 28.2 28.2 0.0 6,154.2 0.46 1991 30.9 30.9 0.0 6,511.1 0.48 1992 33.8 94.7 60.8 6,888.8 1.37 1993 36.8 92.8 56.1 7,288.3 1.27 1994 39.8 92.5 52.7 7,711.0 1.20 1995 42.8 93.2 50.4 8,158.3 1.14 1996 45.8 94.7 48.9 8,631.5 1.10 1997 48.6 96.7 48.1 9,132.1 1.06 1998 51.3 99.1 47.8 9,661.7 1.03 1999 53.8 101.8 47.9 10,222.1 1.00 2000 56.1 104.6 48.5 10,815.0 0.97 82
III20 11 (a)(e) (f) 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 7.2 9.4 11.5 104.9 255.5 345.3 (b) 150m 2 ( 11) 7.2 24.5 36.4 104.9 970.9 1,649.4 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 15.1 24.9 0.0 715.4 1,304.1 (d) ( ) 4,712 7,017 9,302 5,762 8,578 11,372 (e) 86 265 462 163 395 731 (f) (b)(d) 0.15 0.35 0.39 1.82 11.32 14.50 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 50.0 121.8 164.7 24.7 60.2 81.4 (b) 150m 2 ( 11) 50.0 350.6 607.3 24.7 114.6 183.4 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 228.8 442.6 0.0 54.4 102.0 (d) ( ) 6,531 9,725 12,891 5,755 8,568 11,359 (e) 225 515 933 162 394 729 (f) (b)(d) 0.77 3.61 4.71 0.43 1.34 1.61 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 75.3 183.4 247.9 11.3 14.8 18.2 (b) 150m 2 ( 11) 75.3 382.9 652.2 11.3 45.6 70.1 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 199.5 404.3 0.0 30.8 51.9 (d) ( ) 4,565 6,796 9,009 4,913 7,315 9,697 (e) 75 247 431 100 290 511 (f) (b)(d) 1.65 5.63 7.24 0.22 0.62 0.72 83
III20 12 (a)(e) (f) 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 7.2 9.4 11.5 104.9 255.5 345.3 (b) 150m 2 ( 12) 7.2 26.8 26.0 104.9 1,047.0 1,097.2 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 17.4 14.5 0.0 791.5 751.9 (d) ( ) 4,712 7,017 9,302 5,762 8,578 11,372 (e) 86 265 462 163 395 731 (f) (b)(d) 0.15 0.38 0.28 1.82 12.21 9.65 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 50.0 121.8 164.7 24.7 60.2 81.4 (b) 150m 2 ( 12) 50.0 391.1 430.2 24.7 134.7 150.0 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 269.3 265.5 0.0 74.5 68.6 (d) ( ) 6,531 9,725 12,891 5,755 8,568 11,359 (e) 225 515 933 162 394 729 (f) (b)(d) 0.77 4.02 3.34 0.43 1.57 1.32 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 75.3 183.4 247.9 11.3 14.8 18.2 (b) 150m 2 ( 12) 75.3 449.7 513.4 11.3 48.6 47.9 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 266.3 265.5 0.0 33.8 29.7 (d) ( ) 4,565 6,796 9,009 4,913 7,315 9,697 (e) 75 247 431 100 290 511 (f) (b)(d) 1.65 6.62 5.70 0.22 0.66 0.49 84
III20 13 (a)(e) (f) 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 7.2 9.4 11.5 104.9 255.5 345.3 (b) 150m 2 ( 13) 7.2 18.7 19.5 104.9 682.7 757.7 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 9.3 8.0 0.0 427.2 412.4 (d) ( ) 4,712 7,017 9,302 5,762 8,578 11,372 (e) 86 265 462 163 395 731 (f) (b)(d) 0.15 0.27 0.21 1.82 7.96 6.66 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 50.0 121.8 164.7 24.7 60.2 81.4 (b) 150m 2 ( 13) 50.0 265.6 308.4 24.7 100.0 118.3 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 143.8 143.7 0.0 39.8 36.9 (d) ( ) 6,531 9,725 12,891 5,755 8,568 11,359 (e) 225 515 933 162 394 729 (f) (b)(d) 0.77 2.73 2.39 0.43 1.17 1.04 1988 1995 2000 1988 1995 2000 (a) 150m 2 ( ) 75.3 183.4 247.9 11.3 14.8 18.2 (b) 150m 2 ( 13) 75.3 324.4 389.9 11.3 33.1 34.7 (c) (b)(a) 0.0 141.0 142.0 0.0 18.3 16.5 (d) ( ) 4,565 6,796 9,009 4,913 7,315 9,697 (e) 75 247 431 100 290 511 (f) (b)(d) 1.65 4.77 4.33 0.22 0.45 0.36 85
86 I II 25) II 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.03 2000 1.4 11 2000 37 22 26) 2000 1985 2000 1985 0.7 12 33 22 25 III 26
Kanemoo, Hayashi and wago1987 87
88 I W0 r r r e e R *P *τ P P P P P R e τ + = I
L 0 D 0 V = EU ( e r ) = 0 D 00 h L D W W 0 = PL0 + D 0 = PL + D I W = ( 1 + e) PL + (1 + r ) D Ih U E (U ) 1a I E { U(W ) } = E [U {(1 + e)pl + (1 + r ) D } I ] h ) Wdr + ( e r ) Wdh + {(1 + r ) + ( e r ) h} dw ] = 0 U W ( ) > 0 U ( W ) < 0 I h h EU' + EU" ( e r ) hw = = lnp τ EU" ( e r ) 2 W h PL h I W D 1 h I W I I EU (W ) V I I e e ln( P + R ) lnp τ I e I10 I EU ( d lnp dτ dr ) + EU" ( e r )[( d lnp dτ ) hw + (1 I11 I11 h EU' (1 h) EU" ( e r ) W = r EU" ( e r ) 2 W h W I12 I13 2 EU" ( e r ) h + EU" ( e r )(1 + r ) = 2 EU" ( e r ) W h EU" ( e r )(1 + r ) = W EU" ( e r ) 2 W I14 V = E { U ( W )} = E[ U {((1 + r ) + ( e r ) h )W } ] I h < 0 I15 r I5 I13 89
W L = h I19 P I I19 L W h ( W / P = + h ) W P P P P PL PL W Arrow (1971)Pra (1964) I2 h PLW W I20 h W 0 W D = L 0 0 + I21 I14 P P EU" ( e r ) h = 2 EU" ( e r ) W (1 + r ) W I16 I16 I12 I I21 ( W / P ) D = P P 0 2 I22 I22 I20 h h = P lnp P EU = 2 EU" ( e r ) W 2 h 1 + r < 0 I17 L W h = P P P L ( 1 h0 ) I23 P I12 I17 D + h( P τ h 0 0 2 ) W h = P P h τ < 0 I18 PL0 h0 = I24 W I20 I23 L I19 W I6 L W h = W P W 90
h W ( W / P ) + h W = 0 I22 L ( W / P = h ) W W L W h = W ( W / P ) I20 L P W h = P P w p cons. L W + W P pricescons. I25 I25 I20 I23 I17 I20 I23 D 0 0 0 I26 h 0 1 0 I27 D 00 h 0 D 00h 0 D I26 I27 91
P P C τ I28 R + P + 1 P = C I30 1 + r + τ P C P R + P 1 + 2 P + 1 = + 1 + r + τ 1 + r + τ I31 P C P I31 I30 P R + P + 1 ( P + C ) τ( P + C ) = r P + C I28 +1 P + C R + P + 1 = 1 + r +τ I29 I30 P +1 +2 R R + 1 P = + 2 1 + r + τ (1 + r + τ ) P + 2 + ( 1 + r + τ ) 2 C I32 R R + j j 92
q +1 R P + 1 + 2 q + 1 = C I33 1 + r + τ q +1 q + 1 R + 1 + P + 2 C = + r + τ (1 + r + τ ) 1 + r + τ 1 2 I34 I34 R < C ( r + τ + τ ) I36 τ I32 I34 τ C R I32 I 34 R = C ( r + τ ) I35 I35 I35 I35 τ τ I35 1 R C 1 rc τc RCrτ 1990 93
PA PB R A(α) PA = C A I37 r + τ n P = ( 1 + r + τ ) R B (1 α) n (1 + r + τ ) 1 C B r + τ I38 R A ( α ) < 0 R B ( 1 α) < 0 I39 I29 n C ( 1 + r + τ ) 1 C I40 I40 α PAPB CA RA α 1α RA RB α PA PB PAPB α n α RA RB n PA PB CB n RB PAPB RB α α B A B I41 94
τ α I41 τ R A ( r + τ ) 2 R A dα + r + τ dτ R r + τ n B n n r 1 = ( 1 + + τ ) + (1 + r + τ ) RB ( r + τ ) 2 R B dα r + τ dτ ( 1 n)(1 + r + τ ) n C B P A = P B 1 dα n [ R A + (1 + r + τ ) R B ] r + τ dτ = 1 (1 ) 1 n A + r + τ [ C r + τ C 1 n( 1 + r + τ ) τ n PB (1 + r + ) B ] C B I42 I42 d α / dτ I 39 I42 I40 dα dτ > 0 I43 2) τ A α Feldsein1977 Calvo Kolikoff and Rodrigu- ez1979 95
96 II 1.4 2.1 1990 1990 18 II1 1988 0.13 1977 0.27 1986 1988 0.07 II1 1.2 13 II2 10
II 10 1990 1.9 3 1964 39 1964 1964 2 97
II (a) (b) (c) 4.10 49.5 8.28 3.69 99.4 3.71 2.38 30.2 7.87 1.55 16.0 9.66 1.13 12.1 9.27 0.64 61.2 1.04 0.050 3.57 1.40 0.0039 0.28 1.40 0.079 5.64 1.40 0.0069 0.49 1.40 1 1988 2 (a)(b)(c) 3 U. S. Deparmen of Commerce, Saiscal Absrac of he U.S. 1990 II 16,549 23,815 26,963 38,960 39,406 41,405 55,509 63,221 68,368 5,240 20,417 23,118 8,349 8,444 8,873 13,589 28,861 31,991 21,789 44,232 50,081 47,309 47,850 50,278 69,098 92,082 100,359 98
99 1973 200 1990 1968 10 3.3 990 10 II-3 1971 1971 1972 1973 1976 1972 3.3 1972 1973 1973 1975 1976 1981
II (a)(b) 198211 (c) 1983331 198811 1989331 (a) (b) (c) (bc) (b/a) (c/b) (ha) (ha) (ha) (ha) () () 37,522 30,307 24,510 5,797 80.8 80.9 30,716 27,722 23,384 4,338 90.3 84.4 15,979 7,649 6,609 1,040 47.9 86.4 13,507 9,579 8,469 1,110 70.9 88.4 13,740 4,610 3,912 698 33.6 84.9 11,542 6,688 5,803 885 57.9 86.8 67,241 42,566 35,030 7,536 63.3 82.3 55,765 43,989 37,655 6,334 78.9 85.6 1 2 3.3 m 2 1981 1982 1990 100
I n n i = ij / ij RH KH KH 1 1 1 1 j = j = n m m i ik ik RC = KC / KC 1 k = 1 k = 1 m I1 ij KH ij KC i RH i RC i PH i PC i UH i UC i P ij 89 i i PH = PH / (1 + RH [ ] 1 1989 ( = 89) i i i i i P = ( UH PH ) + ( UC PC ) i i / ( UH + UC ) PH PC i i = = ( 76 < < PC i n KH j = 1 ij 89 / n m ik [ KH 89 / m ] 89) = PC k = 1 i 89 + s ) s = 1 89 i i 89 / (1 + RC + s ) s = 1 [ ] 101
II I 1.4 1982 AB 3.3m 2 197282 1972 990m 2 1982 10 II-1 II 1972 3.3m 2 1972 3.3m 2 1/2 1972 3.3m 2 1/2 102
II I 1.2 1.2 II-2 LAKLASLAO TBKTBSTBO TBKTBS 1981 1982 LAKCLASC LAKLAS 3 1975 LAKCLAK 1963 LASCLAS 1976 1975 1981 103
II LAK TBK LAKC TBKC TRKC ( ) LAS TBS LASC TBSC TRSC ( ) LAO TBO ( ) 1 2 11982 88 TBKCTBSC TBA = ( TBK TBKC ) + ( TBS TBSC ) TRKCTRSC + TRKC + TRSC + TBO TBKC TRKCTBSCTRSC 21977 81 LAKC 81 TBA = 1 81 LAK LAK 1983 82 TRKC 82 1981 1 + LAKC 1.2 TBA LAKC TBK 5 81 1 + TBS LAK 81 104
+ TBO 31985 88 TBA = ( TBK TBKC ) + ( TBS TBSC ) + TRKC + TRSC + TBO 41982 84 TBA LAKC 84 84 LAK = LAK 1 TRKC 85 LAKC 1 84 1.2 85 LASC 84 LAS LAS 84 + 1 TRSC 85 LASC 84 1 85 1.2 + TBO LASC 84 + 1 TBS LAS 84 51977 81 TBA LAKC 84 84 LAK LAK = 1 TRKC 85 LAKC 84 LAKC 84 + 1 TBK LAK 84 1 85 LAKC 84 + 1 TBS LAK 1.2 84 + TBS + TBO 105
III 1 2 106
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