E-mailakihiko.yasui@mizuho-ri.co.jp

2003 11 25 1 1965 4 2 2000 04 ()2002 () Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services () () Kaiser Family Foundation 1 / 2 28 101999 1

1999 2000 2006 35 250 2,250 25 2,2515,100 5,101 3 2006 30 1525 600 2004 10 20042013 4,000 1 8,000 4 3 2007 4 10 4,000 Bettelheim, November, 2003. 2

2,251 5,100 () () Kaiser Family Foundation 3,167 5 6 7 23 270 8 2 9 5 2006 Congressional Budget Office, November 20, 2003. 6 USA Today, July 27, 2003. 25,00029,010 50Chen, July 2003 7 Harris, November 26, 2003 8 Congressional Budget Office, November 20, 2000. 9 Betteleheim, November 29, 2003. 3

10 11 12 13 1988 55 64 14 10 Connolly, October 31, 2003. 11 30 Connolly, October 31, 2003 12 1990 HMO Henseley, et al, November 25, 2003 13 Henseley, et al, November 25, 2003 14 AFL-CIOHart Research 11 1718 4

10 4,000 10 1 15 16 17 45 2 30 2017 45 18 10 133 45 19 20 15 Burman, November 20, 2003. 16 17 B BA 18 Butler, et al, November 20, 2003. 19 Park, et al, November 21, 2003. 20 Butler, et al, November 20, 2003. 5

Medicare + Choice 21 Dallek, et al, June 2003. 22 21 2003 3 31 22 2003 3 31 6

2010 23 23 Lueck, et al, November 21, 2003. Freudenheim, November 28, 2003 7

Health Saving Accounts Health Saving Accounts= deductible 1,000 2,000 2,600 5,150 24 2 25 24 Crenshaw, November 27, 2003. 25 Consumer-Driven Health CareGingrich, November 2003. 8

26 27 2011 Bettelheim, Adriel, Medicare Plan Faces Rough Ride Through the Reality, CQ Weekly, November 29, 2003. Burman, Leonard, Digging the Medicare Hole Deeper, Nobember 20, 2003. Butler, Stuart M., Robert E. Moffit and Brian M. Riedl, Cost Control in the Medicare Drug Bill Needs Premium Support, Not a Trigger, November 10, 2003. Chen, Lanhee, How the Senate Medicare Drug Bill Would Raise Senior Citizen s Out-of-Pocket Drug Costs, July 15, 2003. 26 Park, et al, November 21, 2003 27 Schuler, et al, November 25, 2003 9

Congressional Budget Office, Letter to the Honorable Don Nickles Providing Additional Information About CBO's Cost Estimate for the Conference Agreement on H.R. 1, November 20, 2003. Connolly, Ceci, Drugmaker s Profits May Soar, Washington Post, October 31, 2003. Crenshaw, Albert B., Tax-Free Plans Could Alter Health Coverage, Washington Post, November 27, 2003. Dallek, Geraldine, Brian Biles and Lauren Hearsch Nicholas, Lessons from Medicare + Choice for Medicare Reform, June 2003. Freudenheim, Milt, Medicare Plan for Competition Faces Hurdles, New York Times, November 28, 2003. Gingrich, Newt, Conservatives Should Vote Yes on Medicare, Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2003. Harris, Gardiner, Some Experts Foresee Revolt by Elderly Over Drug Benefits, New York Times, November 26, 2003. Hensley, Scott, Leila Abboud and Gregory Zuckerman, Drug Rally Wears Off As Medicare Bill Sinks In, Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2003. Lueck, Sarah and David Rogers, Medicare Test May Prove Moot, Wall Street Journal, November 21, 2003. Moffit, Robert E., A Demonstration Project Equals No Medicare Reform, November 19, 2003. Park, Edwin, Melanie Nathanson, Robert Greenstein and John Springer, The Troubling Medicare Drug Agreement, November 21, 2003. Pear, Robert, Medicare Debate Turns to Pricing of Drug Benefits, New York Times, November 24, 2003. Schuler, Kate and Mary Agnes Carey, Medicare Bill s Passage Doesn t End the Partisan Wars, CQ Today, November 25, 2003. USA Today, Drug Plan for Seniors Risks Replay of Catastrophic Past, July 27, 2003. 2003 3 31 http://www.mizuho-ri.co.jp/research/economics/pdf/us-insight/mur040.pdf 10