1. 1990 2001 38 02 2. 90 3. 00 3 4. 02 5.5 3.6 2 5. 02 03 GDP 0
2 2 3 4 5 5 6 10 14 17 18 18 20
1930 50 81090 10 2001 38 2.2 2.301 7 02 3.603 5 3.5 FRB03 2 11 BS BS BS 90 1 Personal Income and Its Disposition National Income and Product Account NIPA System of National Accounts SNA 2
99 10 SNA 90 NIPA NIPA 1999 90 NIPA NIPA NIPA 1/101/5 20 0.51.0 NIPA 98 1.5 2 3
2 02 4 02 7 00 Alternative Measures of Personal Saving 99 10 NIPA 3Defined Contribution Defined Benefit 90 90 00 0.5 20 1/4 2 4
3 1. 2. 3.OASDI 4. A Guide to the NIPA's NIPA NIPA 91 0.5 00 3.5 2 5
90 4 NIPA BS FRBFlow of Funds Accounts FFA 1 FFA NIPANIPA 92 00 6 5 4 FRBFlow of Funds AccountsPersonal Income and Its Disposition 5 BS FFA 100 1 FRBFlow of Funds AccountsPersonal Income and Its Disposition 1 6
90 6 9900 7 7 1952 6 FRBFlow of Funds Accounts 7 FRBFlow of Funds Accounts 6 00 3 02 1.6 3 7
2.9 FFA 00 NIPA 01 02 64 93 1970 90 10 2 NIPA 02 7 99 6.4 02 5.0 4 03 00 7 4GDP 3 00 8 2 3 2 IMF2003 3 Case, Quigly and Shiller(2001)IMF2003 GDP 2 8
8 FRBSurvey of Consumer Finances 90 9 9 FRBFlow of Funds AccountsPersonal Income and Its Disposition 9
90 7 99 10 10 FRBFlow of Funds Accounts 01 01 FRB FRB 10
20020102 1,300 1635 0.25 8.3 90 90 11 11 FRBFederal Reserve Bulletin 03 2 3 90 6 OCCFRB 11
03 1 8 OCC predatory lending 2 21 FDIC payday lending3 31 7 7 5 13 02 3 19 4 BS 4 2003 H.R.9757 02 12
90 64 68 Affordable Loan 90 12 FRB 26 12 FRBFederal Reserve Bulletin Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type of Expenditure FRB 3 1 Survey of Consumer Finances SCF01 SCF 98 1.9 4 1.8 1.1 SCF 60 13
20 35 25 13 13 1. 2. 60 FRBSurvey of Consumer Finances FRB 02 12 19 90 1 90 98 97 10 98 9 29 14 00 03 5 11 3,500 OMB 03 4,550 04 4,750 14
03 3 00 4.0 69 3.5 30 03 6 6.402 4 3.8 2 50 5.7 90 14 80 90 8,999 7,346 FRB FFA 95 15
90 2(2) 99 02 3 5 401(k) 6 NIPA IRA401(k) 98 99 IRA 2010 194664 OASDI 7 04 03 2 3 IRALSARSA 15 401(k)ERSA Employee Retirement Savings Accounts 5 03 7 2 3 6 Buck Consultants 99 77 02 73 90 Profit Sharing/401k Council of America99 82 7803 3 12 Wall Street Journal 7 2010 2018 2042 03 3 16
70 75 04 IRA5,000 401(k)15,000 8 15 2004 25 65 16 90 4 30 8 2003 H.R.1776 500 17
65 65 90 90 12.62000 12.72000 2010 13.2 1790 65 2010 16 /100 NIPA Consumer Expenditure Survey 2001 17 2000 18
02 7.7 3.6 4 GDP 5.5 2 18 19522002 29.064.27/ R20.65 D.W.=0.87 (12.9) (9.3) 24.982.66/0.058/0.183/GDP (9.9) (4.8) (5.6) (1.8) R20.79 D.W.=0.89 24.152.71/0.058/+0.255 (9.8) (5.7) (5.9) (2.3) R20.80 D.W.=0.85 19
03 A 4 B 5C 6 03 1 4.95 3.77 9 02 5.6 5 B 2 C 4B 03 19 1. 2. 2 IS IS 02 5,034 IS 9 3(2)01 03 01 20
99 02 03 4,550 20 02 Saving and Investment 90 GDP 02 GDP 15.160 93 15.4 21
21 Saving and Investment Tel03-3201-0521 E-Mailtamako.nishikawa@mizuho-ri.co.jp 22
US No52002 4 24 2002 8 1989 9 Case, Karl E. and Quigly, John M., and Shiller, Robert, Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 8606, November 2001 Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2004-2013 Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President, February 2003 Department of Labor, Consumer Expenditure Survey 2001 Department of Commerce, A Guide to the NIPA's,Alternative Measures of Personal Saving,Survey of Current Business, April 2002,Note on the Personal Saving,Survey of Current Business, February 1999 FRB,Recent Changes in U.S. Family Finances: Evidence from the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Bulletin, January 2003,Mortgage Refinancing in 2001 and Early 2002, Federal Reserve Bulletin, December 2002 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2003 Office of Management and Budget,Analytical Perspectives,Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2004, February 2003,Mid-Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2004, July 2003 Social Security Administration, The 2003 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Fund, March 2003 Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, various issues 23