KEIO UNIVERSITY MARKET QUALITY RESEARCH PROJECT (A 21 st Century Center of Excellence Project) DP2006-22 2020 CGE * 2020 (FTA) (EPA) FTA/EPA FTA/EPA * Graduate School of Economics and Graduate School of Business and Commerce, Keio University 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan
2020 CGE * * 2006 -- 2020 --2020 : 1
2020 FTA/EPACGE WTO FTA/EPA ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 FTA/EPA FTA/EPA 2
1 FTAEPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA CGEComputable General Equilibrium2020 FTA/EPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 ASEANASEAN+1ASEAN+2 WTO CGE FTA/EPA CGE 2020 FTA/EPA 3
2 1 1990 2005 == 1 == 1990 2005 40 53 2005 1990 6 4 6 5 35 1990 2 15 1.7 2005 1990 4.2 2 == 1 == 1 Ando and Kimura (2005) 2 1990 Ando (2006) 4
3 1990 Ando (2006) 3 CGE FTACGE 4 CGE 3 2 Kimura and Ando (2005)Ando and Kimura (2007a) 4 AGEApplied General Equilibrium 5
CGE 5 CGE CGEFTA/EPA 6 2002 2002Dimaranan et al (2006)Itakura and Hertel (2002) 2002GTAPGlobal Trade Analysis Project 7 1995 2010 FTA 8 Dimaranan et al (2006) GTAP 2020 2 2 GTAP DymGTAP Itakura and Hertel (2002)2000 2020 WTOAFTA 5 CGE 6 FTA Ando and Urata (2006) 7 GTAPHertel (1997) 8 6
9 4 2020 FTA/EPA CGE 2020 FTA/EPA GTAP 4.1 2001 GTAP GTAP 87 57 10 87 17 57 17 FTA/EPA FTA/EPA import-augmenting technical change 10 5 9 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2020 10 GTAP` 6 87 57 GTAP` 1997 66 57 GTAP 7
2020 FTA/EPA 4.1.1 2020 2001 GTAP 2020 FTA/EPA GDP FTA/EPA GDP 2020 GDP World Bank2006 2001 2005 GDP GTAP 2001 GDP 2005 GDP 2006 2020 OECD1997 GDP 2001 2010 2011 2020 2005 GDP 2020 2020 GDP UN2006 2001 2020 GTAP 2001 2020 ILO 2006 2001 2020 GTAP 2001 2020 Liu et al (1998) 1995 12001 2020 11 ILO2006 2001 2020 11 Liu et al (1998) 2002 implicit wage ratio between skilled and unskilled labor 8
2001 2020 World Bank (2006) 2001 2005 GTAP 2001 4% 2005 12 2005 2020 2020 2020 GDP 2001 2020 2 2020 == 2 == 4.1.2 FTA/EPA WTO 13 Vs/Vu = Ls/Lu ws/wu Ls/Lu = (Ls/Lt)/(1 Ls/Lt) Vs: Vu: Ls: Lu: Lt: ws: wu: Liu et al (1998)2002 12 IK K t +1 = (1 0.04)K t + I t 4% GTAP 13 WTOFTA/EPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA Ando and 9
14 Sim1 Sim2 Sim3 Sim4 Sim5 Sim6 FTA/EPA ASEAN+3ASEAN ASEAN+6ASEAN+3 ASEAN ASEAN+1 ASEAN+2 ASEAN+ASEAN+ASEAN+ ASEAN++ASEAN++ASEAN+ +Sim6 ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 GDP 2020 FTA/EPA 4.2 3 5 GDP Kimura (2007b) 14 3 2001 10
2001 2020 GDP GDP == 3 == == 4 == == 5 == 10 5 Sim4 Sim6 Sim1 Sim3 Sim1 Sim3 2 2 Sim1 Sim2, Sim4, Sim5 11
Sim3, Sim6GDP 15 2020 3 FTA/EPA 3 ASEAN+ FTA/EPA ASEAN+ ASEAN+ 3 ASEAN 4 ASEAN+1 ASEAN+2 ASEAN+ FTA/EPAASEAN+ ASEAN+ FTA/EPA FTA/EPA Ando and Urata (2006) FTA/EPA 16 15 ASEAN+6FTA GDPSim1 0.54 Sim3 0.53-0.07 1.28 GDP GDP 16 GTAP 12
6 ASEAN+6 Sim62001 2020 17 FTA/EPA GDP 18 2020 == 6 == ASEAN ASEAN Ando and Urata (2006) 17 2001 2020 4 5 18 5 2001 13
10 5 2020 FTA/EPA CGE WTO 2020 FTA/EPA ASEAN+ FTA/EPA ASEAN+ ASEAN+ ASEAN ASEAN+1 ASEAN+2 ASEAN+ 14
FTA/EPA ASEAN+ ASEAN+ FTA/EPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA FTA/EPA 15
2002CGE JCER Discussion Paper No. 74 2002 FTA FTA Ando, Mitsuyo (2006) Fragmentation and Vertical Intra-industry Trade in East Asia. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 17 (3). Ando, Mitsuyo and Fukunari Kimura (2005) The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia. In Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose eds., International Trade (NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14), Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Ando, Mitsuyo and Fukunari Kimura (2007a) Fragmentation in East Asia: Further Evidence. KUMQRP Discussion Paper No. 2006-23. Ando, Mitsuyo and Fukunari Kimura (2007b) Japanese FTA/EPA Strategies and Agricultural Protection KUMQRP Discussion Paper No. 2006-24. Ando, Mitsuyo and Shujiro Urata (2006) The Impacts of East Asia FTA: A CGE Model Simulation Study. KUMQRP Discussion Paper No. 2005-21. Hertel, Thomas. W. ed. (1997) Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge University Press, New York. International Labour Organizatio (ILO), The Bureau of Statistics (2006) LABORSTA Internet. (http://laborsta.ilo.org/) Itakura, Ken and Thomas W. Hertel (2002) The Uruguay Round, China s Accession to the WTO, and the Japanese Manufacturing Industry in East Asia: A Dynamic Analysis In Institute of Development Economies ed. Global Development of Gifu s Manufacturing Industry in East Asia. IDE. Kimura, Fukunari and Mitsuyo Ando (2005) Two-dimensional Fragmentation in East Asia: Conceptual Framework and Empirics. International Review of Economics and Finance 14 (4), special issue Outsourcing and Fragmentation: Blessing or Threat?, pp.317-348. 2005. Liu, Jing, Nico van Leeuwen, Tri Thanh Vo, Rod Tyers and Thomas Hertel (1998) Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP GTAP Technical Paper No. 16
11. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (1997) The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age. OECD. United Nations (UN), Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006) World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database Online. (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) Dimaranan, Betina, Elena Iachovichina, and Will Martin (2006) Competing with Giants: Who Wins, Who Loses? L. Alan Winters and Shahid Yusuf eds. Dancing With Giants: China, India, And the Global Economy. The World Bank and the Institute of Policy Studies. World Bank (2006) World Bank Indicator 2006 Online. 17
UN Comtrade HS84-92Ando and Kimura (2005) 1990 2005 (A) (100US 54,336 399,882 40% 53% A/B) 52% 61% (B) (100US 105,268 654,620 30% 44% B/C) 39% 57% (C) (100US 270,465 1,139,821 39% 45% UN Comtrade 18
GDP 1.49-0.02-0.66 0.33-0.88 1.69 5.96 0.60 0.44 1.45 0.36 6.35 4.57 0.98 0.74 1.75 0.54 4.68 3.83 0.22 0.76 1.76 0.62 3.81 4.22 1.07 1.62 2.64 1.58 4.05 4.64 1.56 2.25 3.27 2.12 3.71 4.53 1.54 2.69 3.72 2.60 4.14 4.63 1.01 0.97 1.98 0.45 5.08 4.68 0.71 0.81 1.82 0.75 4.07 5.35 1.21 1.71 2.73 1.63 5.00 3.50 0.97 1.02 2.03 0.62 3.88 3.61 0.66 1.06 2.07 0.64 3.79 4.86 1.35 1.72 2.74 1.56 4.77 4.39 0.50 0.76 1.57 0.26 4.64 NAFTA 2.74 0.98 0.98 1.88 0.59 2.97 EU15 1.48 0.20 0.15 1.15-0.22 1.21 3.13 1.82 2.21 3.25 2.14 2.38 OECD1997UN2006ILO2006Liu et al (1998)2002World Bank (2006) 19
ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 Sim1 Sim2 Sim3 Sim4 Sim5 Sim6 Sim1 Sim2 Sim3 Sim4 Sim5 Sim6 Sim1 Sim2 Sim3 Sim4 Sim5 Sim6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.40 0.43 0.44 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.46 0.51 0.55-0.01-0.01 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01 0.53 0.52 0.51 2.00 2.03 2.02 0.54 0.54 0.53 2.09 2.13 2.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01 1.93 2.03 2.03-0.01-0.01-0.01 1.99 2.11 2.11 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01 0.29 0.66 1.04 2.50 2.69 3.06 0.31 0.66 1.01 2.66 2.85 3.20 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.47 0.54 0.55 0.13 0.14 0.15 1.67 1.76 1.77 0.14 0.15 0.16 1.80 1.98 1.99 0.04 0.16 0.27 2.39 2.62 2.74 0.63 0.76 0.90 5.64 5.96 6.09 0.65 0.80 0.96 5.92 6.32 6.47 0.05 0.10 0.15 1.12 1.27 1.32 0.16 0.20 0.24 3.66 3.81 3.85 0.17 0.22 0.27 3.77 4.05 4.10 0.01 0.02 0.03 2.11 2.25 2.26-0.02-0.01 0.01 3.97 4.14 4.16-0.02 0.00 0.01 4.17 4.38 4.39 0.26 0.34 0.42 1.64 1.73 1.81 0.89 1.03 1.16 4.43 4.60 4.74 0.91 1.07 1.23 4.64 4.88 5.04 0.09 0.24 0.39 0.84 1.05 1.20 0.82 1.03 1.23 2.73 3.00 3.20 0.83 1.04 1.24 2.81 3.11 3.31 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.03-0.03-0.08-0.08-0.09 0.23 0.23 0.24 1.29 1.35 1.35 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.03-0.03-0.06-0.07-0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 1.65 1.83 1.85-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.03-0.02-0.02-0.04-0.03-0.03-0.10-0.10-0.10 0.31 0.52 0.72 1.02 1.15 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.05-0.06-0.06-0.09-0.09-0.10 NAFTA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01 EU15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01 0.00-0.02-0.02-0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.06-0.06-0.06-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.07-0.07-0.07-405 -403-402 -1,640-1,637-1,635 6,553 6,558 6,564 25,752 26,958 26,963 6,973 7,905 8,837 28,513 30,669 31,601-158 -172-186 -602-616 -630 4,038 4,351 4,665 22,331 22,811 23,124 4,538 4,748 4,958 23,540 24,177 24,387 12 9 5 99 96 93 1,184 1,165 1,146 6,490 6,617 6,598 1,163 1,149 1,135 6,653 6,813 6,799-111 -111-112 -407-407 -408 3,142 4,754 6,365 15,020 15,873 17,484 3,415 4,856 6,296 15,849 16,676 18,117 144 186 229 1,124 1,232 1,274 553 605 657 4,075 4,282 4,334 737 813 889 4,485 4,786 4,862 352 446 540 4,278 4,489 4,583 1,556 1,680 1,805 9,865 10,199 10,323 1,818 2,039 2,259 10,658 11,049 11,270 125 161 197 1,204 1,310 1,346 101 156 211 3,321 3,484 3,539 115 153 190 3,395 3,605 3,642 757 870 982 4,123 4,326 4,438 934 1,081 1,228 6,274 6,526 6,674 1,195 1,318 1,440 6,876 7,149 7,272 545 693 841 2,713 2,883 3,031 1,529 2,100 2,671 7,260 7,740 8,311 1,627 2,159 2,690 7,568 8,077 8,608-6 127 260 916 1,148 1,281 567 781 996 3,010 3,360 3,575 618 831 1,045 3,139 3,522 3,736-20 -52-84 -119-160 -191-302 -443-584 -1,284-1,427-1,568 1,127 1,805 2,484 7,256 7,876 8,555-2 -17-32 -17-33 -47-40 -78-115 -130-169 -207 147 234 321 1,337 1,548 1,635-64 -68-73 -246-254 -259-387 -401-415 -1,015-1,045-1,059 1,031 1,910 2,788 4,555 5,237 6,116-83 -87-90 -285-289 -292-1,384-1,399-1,414-3,289-3,309-3,324-1,523-1,567-1,611-3,658-3,700-3,744 NAFTA -300-319 -337-1,384-1,409-1,428-3,092-3,471-3,850-11,170-11,510-11,888-3,783-4,391-5,000-13,146-13,681-14,289 EU15-397 -390-384 -1,475-1,471-1,465-2,941-2,940-2,939-8,323-8,317-8,316-3,666-3,699-3,733-10,046-10,061-10,095-132 -168-205 -920-950 -986-2,391-2,595-2,799-8,958-9,142-9,346-3,541-3,852-4,163-12,640-12,901-13,212 ASEAN+3ASEAN+++ASEAN+6ASEAN+3+++ Sim1: Sim2: Sim3: Sim4: Sim5: Sim6: 20
ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 Sim1 Sim2 Sim3 Sim4 Sim5 Sim6 Sim1 Sim2 Sim3 Sim4 Sim5 Sim6 Sim1 Sim2 Sim3 Sim4 Sim5 Sim6 0.02 0.02 0.01-0.01-0.02-0.02 2.26 2.56 2.86 5.91 6.09 6.39 2.47 2.94 3.40 6.41 6.64 7.11-0.03-0.04-0.04-0.19-0.20-0.20 7.75 8.02 8.29 14.65 14.86 15.13 8.20 8.54 8.88 15.47 15.76 16.09-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.10-0.10-0.10 0.94 0.94 0.94 1.63 1.70 1.70 0.96 0.96 0.96 1.67 1.74 1.74-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.20-0.20-0.19 3.43 3.53 3.62 7.28 7.31 7.41 3.62 3.84 4.05 7.68 7.78 8.00 0.71 0.80 0.90 2.37 2.49 2.59 2.21 2.34 2.46 5.89 6.09 6.22 2.44 2.60 2.76 6.43 6.84 7.00 0.54 0.61 0.69 2.39 2.44 2.52 1.47 1.56 1.66 4.76 4.83 4.93 1.68 1.75 1.83 5.16 5.29 5.37 0.37 0.55 0.73 2.69 2.90 3.08 1.37 1.45 1.54 6.83 6.81 6.89 1.44 1.67 1.90 6.96 7.29 7.53 0.42 0.33 0.24 5.94 5.82 5.73 0.98 0.83 0.69 8.77 8.59 8.44 1.16 0.98 0.81 9.13 8.93 8.76 1.53 1.58 1.64 3.67 3.65 3.70 4.33 4.15 3.98 8.39 8.19 8.02 4.60 4.56 4.52 8.98 8.89 8.85 3.09 4.20 5.30 5.78 6.33 7.43 10.33 11.75 13.16 15.82 16.66 18.07 10.61 12.26 13.90 16.52 17.57 19.22-0.04-0.03-0.03-0.18-0.18-0.18-0.06-0.07-0.08-0.45-0.45-0.47 2.78 2.77 2.76 4.00 4.22 4.21-0.01 0.00 0.00-0.05-0.05-0.04 0.01 0.03 0.04-0.09-0.07-0.06 1.23 1.16 1.09 2.77 3.25 3.18-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.11-0.12-0.12-0.08-0.12-0.16-0.36-0.41-0.45 5.72 7.01 8.30 9.54 10.05 11.34-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.26-0.26-0.26-0.60-0.59-0.59-2.42-2.42-2.42-0.64-0.64-0.65-2.57-2.58-2.58 NAFTA 0.01 0.01 0.01-0.04-0.05-0.05 0.01-0.03-0.06-0.32-0.36-0.39-0.02-0.06-0.10-0.39-0.43-0.46 EU15-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.06-0.07-0.07-0.02-0.03-0.03-0.14-0.14-0.15-0.03-0.04-0.05-0.17-0.18-0.19-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.04-0.04-0.04 0.00-0.01-0.03-0.02-0.03-0.04-0.02-0.04-0.06-0.04-0.06-0.08-0.18-0.19-0.19-0.73-0.74-0.74 4.65 5.00 5.34 12.92 13.15 13.49 4.95 5.42 5.89 13.59 13.84 14.31-0.11-0.11-0.12-0.47-0.48-0.48 11.28 11.63 11.98 20.57 20.85 21.19 11.99 12.44 12.90 21.78 22.16 22.62 0.00 0.00-0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.96 1.94 1.93 5.31 5.35 5.33 1.94 1.93 1.91 5.39 5.44 5.43-0.11-0.10-0.10-0.54-0.54-0.54 6.24 6.40 6.55 13.68 13.74 13.90 6.62 6.92 7.22 14.38 14.53 14.83 1.50 1.68 1.85 4.87 5.06 5.23 4.75 4.98 5.22 13.04 13.39 13.63 5.38 5.66 5.95 14.16 14.79 15.07 1.44 1.55 1.67 5.51 5.52 5.64 3.84 4.00 4.16 11.00 11.03 11.20 4.32 4.49 4.65 11.89 12.00 12.17 1.02 1.19 1.35 5.98 6.18 6.35 2.28 2.48 2.68 15.49 15.70 15.90 2.42 2.67 2.92 15.79 16.21 16.46 1.18 1.20 1.22 8.53 8.51 8.53 1.91 1.92 1.92 12.21 12.15 12.16 2.35 2.30 2.25 13.04 12.95 12.90 3.43 3.60 3.76 8.55 8.59 8.75 9.53 9.82 10.11 20.69 20.77 21.06 10.12 10.52 10.92 21.84 22.01 22.41 2.78 3.63 4.47 6.00 6.50 7.34 8.91 10.07 11.23 15.92 16.78 17.94 9.22 10.55 11.87 16.55 17.57 18.90-0.08-0.15-0.21-0.40-0.48-0.54-0.75-1.04-1.32-2.90-3.19-3.48 4.92 6.33 7.74 12.44 13.58 14.98-0.05-0.14-0.24-0.20-0.30-0.39-0.36-0.60-0.84-1.22-1.47-1.71 2.69 3.17 3.66 9.19 10.67 11.16-0.11-0.12-0.14-0.43-0.44-0.46-0.79-0.82-0.85-2.16-2.20-2.24 6.77 8.01 9.25 11.47 12.02 13.26-0.11-0.11-0.11-0.58-0.58-0.58-1.91-1.91-1.90-5.96-5.96-5.96-2.09-2.12-2.15-6.52-6.54-6.57 NAFTA -0.03-0.04-0.04-0.16-0.17-0.17-0.44-0.50-0.55-1.60-1.65-1.70-0.57-0.65-0.73-1.94-2.01-2.09 EU15-0.03-0.03-0.04-0.14-0.14-0.15-0.27-0.27-0.27-0.79-0.80-0.80-0.34-0.35-0.36-0.98-0.99-1.00-0.03-0.04-0.04-0.13-0.14-0.14-0.37-0.39-0.41-1.07-1.09-1.11-0.50-0.55-0.60-1.44-1.49-1.54 f.o.bc.i.f 21
!"##$%$%&'()*)+,-./0123,4567389:;<'=> ASEAN ASEAN +?@ ASEAN +A@ ASEAN +BC ASEAN +?@+ A@ ASEAN +?@+ BC ASEAN +A@+ BC ASEAN +3 ASEAN +6 D!"#$EFGHIJD!"#$EFG'KLMNOPQR'STUVWXOPYZ BC 0.00-0.01 0.00 0.17-0.01 0.39 0.23 0.44 0.55?@ -0.01 0.75-0.02-0.04 1.20 1.60-0.07 2.02 2.13 [\ 0.00 1.58 0.00 0.00 1.72 1.89 0.00 2.03 2.11 A@ -0.01-0.06 0.49-0.03 2.16-0.19 1.48 3.06 3.20 OP]^_) 0.55 0.92 0.86 1.12 1.22 1.48 1.42 1.77 1.99 `al_) 2.74 3.57 3.26 4.84 4.07 5.62 5.34 6.09 6.47 bcdep 1.32 1.84 1.79 2.95 2.30 3.42 3.40 3.85 4.10 _PfXLg 2.26 2.88 2.55 3.29 3.17 3.88 3.57 4.16 4.39 ho 1.81 2.62 2.17 3.67 2.95 4.42 4.01 4.74 5.04 KYij 1.20 2.13 1.76 1.77 2.66 2.68 2.33 3.20 3.31 klmynd) -0.01-0.02-0.02-0.04-0.03-0.06-0.05-0.09 1.35 lml*lnp] -0.01-0.02-0.01-0.02-0.03-0.05-0.04-0.07 1.85 OP] -0.02-0.04-0.04-0.05-0.06-0.08-0.07-0.10 1.36 no -0.01-0.02-0.01-0.02-0.04-0.06-0.03-0.08-0.10 NAFTA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 0.00-0.01-0.01 EUV15p@Z 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02 q'rst -0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.03-0.04-0.03-0.06-0.07 uv;<8ijuv;<'klmnopqr'stwvx%%y]gz BC -1,635-3,885-2,371 9,718-5,485 23,629 13,917 26,963 31,601?@ -630 8,527-1,138-1,938 13,128 19,200-3,124 23,124 24,387 [\ 93 5,996 93 65 6,178 6,424 57 6,598 6,799 A@ -408-1,439 3,496-1,149 14,388-3,740 8,151 17,484 18,117 OP]^_) 1,274 2,275 1,995 3,079 2,861 3,848 3,700 4,334 4,862 `al_) 4,583 6,676 5,550 8,219 7,440 9,754 8,991 10,323 11,270 bcdep 1,346 1,944 1,801 2,947 2,311 3,283 3,291 3,539 3,642 _PfXLg 4,438 6,060 4,829 5,234 6,336 6,502 5,522 6,674 7,272 ho 3,031 4,657 3,590 6,836 5,071 8,038 7,254 8,311 8,608 KYij 1,281 2,282 1,897 2,265 2,794 3,115 2,828 3,575 3,736 klmynd) -191-318 -299-694 -617-1,121-951 -1,568 8,555 lml*lnp] -47-72 -54-71 -119-135 -103-207 1,635 OP] -259-475 -381-550 -675-834 -696-1,059 6,116 no -292-882 -488-948 -1,514-2,483-1,353-3,324-3,744 NAFTA -1,428-3,406-2,045-4,539-4,979-9,149-6,322-11,888-14,289 EUV15p@Z -1,465-3,270-1,834-3,523-4,013-7,013-4,450-8,316-10,095 q'rst -986-1,580-1,903-3,445-3,997-5,827-5,463-9,346-13,212 z{8_ mal_}p~< + ƒ E 8_ mal_}p ˆ ŠSim6V Œ Ž/0123,45673Z' LMŽ. 22
-3.4 1.7-0.8-6.1 0.2 5.2-3.8 21.1-0.9-0.5 8.8 0.3-1.0-1.9 0.3-0.8-2.7 1.7-0.3 1.0-0.7-0.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.3-5.5-1.2 0.4-13.5 0.1-0.2-15.5 4.8-6.3 4.0-0.6-0.5-2.2-4.0 0.3 1.4 10.9-5.9 13.3-21.2-14.9-22.6-2.3-27.4-9.0 0.8-1.7-3.7 1.0-0.1 1.6-0.4-11.0-2.6-13.1 5.3-3.2 4.3-1.6 0.8-2.8 1.1 4.5-0.2-5.3-4.1 8.2 0.6-6.7-3.5-0.7 0.5 2.0-3.9 2.8-4.6 2.3 3.6-7.4 9.5 4.4-12.7-8.3-0.9-2.8 2.2-3.6 25.3-8.5 27.4 10.6 11.8 16.7 19.4-2.0-15.0-3.0-1.6-3.9 15.0 20.4 3.0-0.2 5.6 19.5 22.9 30.1-10.0-11.3-22.0-10.5-1.5-2.1-10.2-11.2-5.8-6.0 11.0-22.9 5.5-22.6-12.9-7.9-2.3-3.7-1.8 4.4 15.9-18.8 4.7-34.9-12.3-20.1 7.9-12.7 0.4 3.9 0.3-1.1 0.5 1.8 0.5-3.5 1.6-1.4 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.8 3.3 3.8 8.3 7.8 19.5 23.1 11.8 30.9 5.6 7.3 7.4 2.4-0.3-0.8-1.0-2.3-1.3-6.5-6.0-7.9-8.3 0.7-2.5-3.7 0.9 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.4 0.6 3.3 2.2 4.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.1-0.3-2.9 0.3-0.9-9.8 0.0-10.3-2.6 0.9-0.1-0.3 0.4 19.7 49.2 53.3 49.8 9.5 22.1-23.0 40.2 11.5 30.8 25.8 2.5 14.9 29.2 13.9 6.6 28.8 5.6-2.8-37.6-0.3-5.9 6.1 1.0-4.1 2.4 107.1 59.4-60.1 87.7 5.6 19.3 13.8 20.6 25.1 7.5 8.1 46.6 82.4 74.5 24.0 10.1 28.2 0.4 22.9-15.6-12.7-28.7 19.0 11.6 21.5 5.4 23.5 0.0 30.5 23.5 4.6 4.9-15.3-0.3-12.0 49.9 16.8 20.1 1.1 16.9 10.3 47.3 30.2 19.0 4.5 19.8 13.1 16.4 40.1 12.3 13.4 21.0 25.7 8.4 24.4 17.6 19.6 28.3-22.6 23.9 22.3 20.2-3.4 17.8 11.8 9.7 9.7 57.5 3.9 47.0 24.1 16.4 20.6 30.0 67.4-3.3 9.2 14.1 3.4 37.0 33.3 9.1 6.4 6.6 20.5 23.7 37.3 41.6 18.5-20.9 33.9-2.7 18.3 2.8-16.0 28.7 31.4 46.0-26.9 32.2 14.1-0.8 3.6 7.1 3.1 0.4 20.4 39.5-18.7 16.3-44.8-10.9-27.4 22.0-7.5 16.4 9.7-3.3-1.8-0.8-15.1-15.3-24.0-45.1-27.5-40.9-4.5-18.2-14.4 5.4-6.0 1.0 0.1-15.1-5.2 0.7-26.6-25.6-16.0 2.2-15.5-10.3-1.3-1.8-3.5-5.9-6.4-9.0-9.9-21.9-13.6-25.7 0.3-16.9-9.5 3.5-11.4-6.8-13.2-27.0-19.8-22.3-50.5-31.7-42.9-10.8-23.8-20.0-4.0-8.8-3.8-10.3-24.5-17.4-18.2-46.7-32.3-39.5-8.8-22.1-19.3 2.2 18.8 26.7 4.0 15.9 18.7 18.3 36.6 11.3 30.3 42.6 22.5 13.7 37.5 0.1 6.6 0.7 1.9 16.0 12.1 9.0 6.6 8.0 12.8 13.4 7.1 9.5-0.9 12.9 14.8 2.2 41.0 42.5-0.4 6.3 2.4 67.2 39.6 10.9 4.1 38.0 53.4 11.6 38.5 27.1 21.3 4.8 4.5 43.7 34.2 27.1 16.7 50.0 12.5 20.1 8.8 20.6 18.2 14.3 10.6 7.4 19.9 26.7 19.4 19.6 16.6 11.1 24.3 4.4 17.6 11.0 16.1 8.3 7.4 17.1 12.8 12.0 7.3 15.7 16.5 21.4 6.7 17.0 17.5 13.6 36.4 11.9 14.3 12.4 23.2 15.2 18.0 17.4 27.5 4.4 25.2 11.3 14.0 15.4 12.4 23.7 9.8 11.3 9.3 14.3 24.1 20.6 3.3 11.0 16.5 8.4 13.7 16.7 28.7 33.2 5.6 16.7 25.5 12.2 16.3 5.8 16.3 13.8 10.5 19.7 10.9 28.2 61.3 15.3 7.0 27.1 22.0 38.1 3.1 22.8 23.8 23.3 25.5 14.2 23.0 31.2 21.8 18.3 5.5 6.8 4.7 7.5 13.8 14.0 24.8 30.8 19.2 34.5 5.9 14.3 13.2 3.8 8.7 8.7 0.8 18.7 18.1 45.6 45.3 6.2 17.8 10.2 13.7 11.7 5.6 6.2 5.8 8.1 6.6 9.9 12.8 18.7 6.3 21.2 2.5 11.6 6.7 0.9 6.6 7.4 10.5 19.2 13.6 17.6 31.8 4.5 25.9 9.2 15.8 13.7 3.5 7.0 5.5 6.8 13.4 10.9 1.8 30.0 13.8 23.5 9.2 15.0 12.5 2.3 f.o.bc.i.f 23
17 87GTAP ver.6 1 aus Australia 2 nzl New Zealand 4 chn China 5 hkg Hong Kong 6 jpn Japan 7 kor Korea 8 twn Taiwan ASEAN10 idn Indonesia (ASEAN) 11 mys Malaysia (ASEAN) 12 phl Philippines (ASEAN) 13 sgp Singapore (ASEAN) 14 tha Thailand (ASEAN) 15 vnm Vietnam 16 xse Rest of Southeast Asia (Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Burma, (East)Timor Leste) 18 ind NAFTA 21 can Canada 22 usa USA 23 mex Mexico EU15 37 aut Austria 42 deu Germany 47 lux Luxemburg 38 bel Belgium 43 gbr U.K. 48 nld Netherland 39 dnk Denmark 44 grc Greece 49 prt Portugal 40 fin Finland 45 irl Ireland 50 esp Spain 41 fra France 46 ita Italy 51 swe Sweden 9 xea Rest of East Asia (Macau, Mongolia, Democratic Korea) 3 xoc Rest of Oceania 52 che Switzerland 71 tur Turkey 17 bgd Bangladesh 53 xef Rest of EFTA 72 xme Rest of Middle East 19 lka Ski Lanka 54 xer Rest of Europe 73 mar Morocco 20 xsa Rest of South Asia 55 alb Albania 74 tun Tunisia 24 xna Rest of North America 56 bgr Bulgaria 75 xnf Rest of North Africa 25 col Colombia 57 hrv Croatia 76 bwa Botwana 26 per Peru 58 cyp Cyprus 77 zaf South Africa 27 ven Venezuela 59 cze Czech 78 xsc Rest of SACU 28 xap Rest of Andean Pact 60 hun Hungary 79 mwi Malawi 29 arg Argentina 62 pol Poland 80 moz Mozambique 30 bra Brazil 63 rom Romania 81 tza Tanzania 31 chl Chile 64 svk Slovakia 82 zmb Zambia 32 ury Uruguay 65 svn Slovenia 83 zwe Zimbabwe 33 xsm Rest of South America 66 est Estonia 84 xsd Rest of SADC 34 xca Central America 67 lva Latovia 85 mdg Madagascor 35 xfa Rest of FTAA 68 ltu Lithuania 86 uga Uganda 36 xcb Rest of the Caribbean 69 rus Russia 87 xss Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa 70 xsu Rest of FSU 16 57GTAP ver.6 1 pdr Paddy Rice 11 rmk Raw milk 2 wht Wheat 12 wol Wool 3 gro Other grains 19 cmt Meat: cattle, sheep, goats, horses 4 v_f Vegetables, fruits, nuts 20 omt Other meat 5 osd Oil seeds 21 vol Vegetable oils 6 c_b Sugar cane and sugar beet 22 mil Milk: dairy products 7 pfb Plant fibres 23 pcr Processed rice 8 ocr Other crops 24 sgr Sugar 9 ctl Cattle, sheep, goats, horses 25 ofd Other food 10 oap Other animal products 26 b_t Beverages and tobacco 13 frs Forestry 14 fsh Fishing 15 coa Coal 17 gas Gas 16 oil Oil 18 omn Other mining 27 tex Textiles 28 wap Wearing apparel 30 lum Wood products 31 ppp Paper products 32 p_c Petroleum and coke 34 nmmnon-metallic minerals 33 crp Chemical rubber products 35 i_s Iron and steel 37 fmp Metal products 36 nfm Non-ferrous metals 41 ome Other machinery and equipment 40 ele Electronic equipment 38 mvh Motor vehicles 39 otn Other transport equipment 29 lea Leather 42 omf Other manufacturing 46 cns Construction 47 trd Trade 48 otp Other transport 50 atp Air transport 49 wtp Water transport 51 cmn Communications 56 osg Public administration, defense, education, health 43 ely Electricity 53 isr Insurance 44 gdt Gas distribution 54 obs Other business services 45 wtr Water 55 ros Recreation and other services 52 ofi Other financial intermediation57 dwe Dwellings 24
2001ASEAN+6 30.2 37.6 0.0 81.7 5.0 17.1 9.5 0.4 29.4 30.7 2.8 2.0 50.2 1.8 0.7 0.0 6.9 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.0 10.3 3.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.7 0.3 1.6 3.2 0.0 0.2 3.1 4.9 0.0 16.2 9.0 20.5 0.0 10.0 8.6 12.3 6.5 0.0 18.5 21.4 17.0 6.0 26.6 1.1 9.0 0.0 4.0 3.4 6.6 4.7 0.0 11.0 12.0 3.6 1.1 22.0 1.1 13.0 0.0 6.7 4.4 5.9 4.5 0.0 11.7 7.3 3.0 1.3 28.8 0.5 7.5 0.0 3.8 5.9 8.5 3.9 0.0 9.3 4.7 3.6 1.4 33.6 0.1 13.1 0.0 6.1 3.0 3.9 2.3 0.0 8.2 7.5 3.5 2.1 25.4 0.0 10.1 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.7 8.8 0.8 1.2 15.1 0.0 20.5 0.0 3.9 9.6 31.7 11.5 0.0 24.0 42.1 12.9 3.5 27.4 5.3 13.9 0.0 8.5 6.5 6.8 6.1 0.0 7.1 18.4 5.2 3.8 33.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 11.6 0.0 8.5 3.6 4.7 2.8 0.0 8.8 10.0 4.3 1.7 21.8 GTAP ver.6 25
2001100-13,234 7,745-53 -4,294 133 688-1,447 1,036-315 -141 4,947 44-1,814-482 112-1 -86 110-10 31-1 -20 73 18 2 28-619 -935 67-233 25-17 -175 7-167 299-170 -4-276 -3,760 639 269 3,345-1,064 492-1,074-279 -4,045-335 -1,627-105 317-3,160-3,526 55-18 246-29 -241-97 -793 254-578 215-201 3,559-11,767 85 4,595-49 -1,094-355 1,670 155-761 -1,081-40 354 6,521-8,381 116-2,579 165 225-383 465 245-447 -2,480-25 -1,394 6,390-9,921 1,164-6,392 1,718 1,231 517 2,379 2,526-73 -1,905-52 -470-14,278 18,692 902 2,085-22 3,629 4,490 11,929 7,100-386 -406-219 -720-5,292-1,707-236 -6,211-409 -242 158-906 602-1,694-1,828-107 -456-3,054-2,627 121 1,547-1,075 371-603 -288-2,075 599-692 5 814 2,892-2,082 582 1,280 83-544 187-351 259 117 855 135 605 11,701 9,077 1,021 4,807 1,361 1,535 1,658 1,125 3,032 1,177 2,974 449 1,480-1,285-888 -1,140-1,451-200 -686-373 -1,626-1,414 79-1,390-297 656 2,138 1,987 283 1,120 66 151 256 945 76 101 470 118 89 1,528-593 -1,689 503-427 -2,982-3 -4,675-1,043 377-179 -69 513 697 7,781 192 1,267 646 1,459-525 1,110 1,352 1,146 4,396 200 1,026 40 86 1 32 30-22 -26 0-8 25 2-22 2 151 2,860-1 40 608 784 37 23 18 361 1,188 70 1,046 7,167 14,741 1,071 4,803 34 650-479 -186-1,863 957 71 68 699 741-7 261 589 424 235-118 -5-302 464 243 305 8 8,450 3,727 493 7,297 1,346 414 229 1,973 1,598 336 557 219 1,810 7,043 1,568 266 2,105 661 743-209 579 513 47-379 177 436 11,493 5,586 1,434 796 1,775 1,838 602 2,570 2,959 569-119 89 461 3,238 25,113 1,042 4,557 547 4,107 4,522 11,832 7,214 198 196-38 302-2,676 1,573 0-4,043 202 390 271-552 735 26-28 8 83 277 326 251 1,979-790 366-442 -155-1,459 745-92 79 888-246 -153-362 -233-63 -1,053-117 -1,252-537 -14-375 -85 128-247 7 0-14 -9 2-15 -4-43 2-8 -2 0-668 -368-1,287-1,338-173 -572-410 -1,242-1,680 5-1,159-204 155-184 -164-16 -621-36 -49-59 -289-107 -44-376 -55-30 -1,281-168 -1,519-1,880-362 -2,410-337 -4,168-1,197-118 -999-206 153 8,124 3,777 299 1,590 771 834 1,283 525 1,204 991 698 163 1,720 4 131 2 17 7 19 6 11 11 3 5 1 57-417 1,617 76 520 647 494-11 375 133 47 773 58 490 9,441 10,706 1,213 2,209 599 300 80 119 767 926 911 122 538 2,158 1,852 247 725 202 226 92 140 248 180 645 150 192 4,649 10,841 487 3,630 954 1,357 403 855 1,371 756 1,394 182 1,462 2,923 4,560 343 2,054 525 786 762 741 844 243 883 121 935 7,479 13,284 482 5,664 733 1,793 894 2,487 2,543 381 1,489 217 940 13,562 10,807 814 2,949 476 2,079 2,257 7,695 3,685 436 455 185 834 1,800 2,021 221 1,074 463 283 272 786 1,029 1,039 1,331 152 550 3,645 1,939 508 631 179 226 126 321 458 273 578 84 269 977 1,135 157 380 330 185 233 675 567 70 243 45 83 391 112 8 11 3 271 154 2 25 56 5 2 1 1,605 332 443 707 183 241 231 230 401 69 656 88 28 340 137 214 293 87 81 59 36 143 93 177 34 20 2,447 354 693 1,644 686 152 367 1,064 890 454 678 160 140 f.o.bc.i.f 26
19 155 107 60 90 117 104 141 90 113 77 80 106 27 184 84 70 120 126 103 73 107 142 66 100 157 96 201 125 165 101 113 221 247 129 130 101 90 134 9 207 103 82 153 113 166 113 151 175 61 62 137 28 204 138 101 130 100 154 157 162 174 91 93 166 38 215 124 97 109 128 130 132 126 187 84 97 161 38 224 122 122 131 155 178 175 175 211 89 109 206 36 239 167 127 146 163 190 165 177 217 87 116 193 23 247 161 114 196 160 142 158 183 221 98 90 201 39 233 128 102 149 149 175 153 154 192 101 97 172 15 217 107 62 113 127 175 118 147 160 59 68 187 31 205 140 107 132 140 143 133 152 179 92 96 157 32 200 136 110 104 148 110 128 146 177 79 92 147 33 213 131 93 134 117 144 128 138 181 91 95 161 28 195 115 104 121 143 137 114 123 157 93 93 147 37 214 141 113 133 128 144 145 147 186 102 105 164 78 29 116 32 38 111 67 156 57-2 94 84 27 187-144 15 68 124 176-78 75 59 54 49 124-14 597 102-121 396 94 103 285 266 108 103 116 98 116 46 179 110 87 154 109 164 112 159 160 61 45 112 60 158 166 111 132 83 160 182 170 150 94 94 157 92 199 142 100 72 115 102 129 109 190 87 103 159 89 183 129 132 134 147 244 190 173 254 96 116 313 53 252 192 141 154 160 190 166 176 229 90 122 327 35 228 173 118 200 159 141 158 182 295 120 100 290 52 244 66 102 189 138 194 153 167 238 117 96 244-22 212 121 44 104 96 182 117 141 131 31 53 177 33 128 143 78 177 118 209 125 197 187 63 83 204 56 120 76 84 101 103 179 139 137 130 78 107 151 61 184 106 80 124 97 140 116 126 139 85 95 117 35 111 37 57 79 127 175 78 71 58 65 77 117 61 209 119 98 123 111 193 148 133 163 111 121 198 23 185 97 73 123 111 110 89 113 174 55 68 129-6 309 99 80 158 107 217 80 145 248 70 85 193 25 257 193 97 132 161 127 133 133 236 106 110 185 86 134 127 99 108 120 129 120 110 143 91 83 128 53 166 126 98 107 124 120 124 124 155 76 89 130 38 156 132 105 135 138 137 129 139 150 88 83 127 53 173 135 104 120 145 103 146 152 149 94 85 95 65 131 134 95 127 142 120 138 151 162 84 88 91 76 194 131 107 129 156 138 150 165 131 83 92 111 46 137 137 97 103 135 117 119 128 145 74 85 82 74 110 122 92 116 122 107 117 103 137 100 89 98 56 186 110 109 90 134 85 110 109 116 100 90 91 38 168 131 101 84 140 47 109 119 143 84 72 115 42 139 107 88 105 133 99 99 115 137 79 79 143 53 173 132 120 116 116 84 138 124 169 100 93 136 38 140 117 92 101 121 78 119 116 132 74 73 108 f.o.bc.i.f 27