revisionist power status quo power 1 Aaron Friedberg 2 John J. Mearsheimer 3 4 David Shambaugh 2005 1 Alastair Iain Johnston, Is China a Status Quo Power? International Security, vol. 27, no. 4, (Spring 2003), pp. 5-56. 2 Aaron L. Friedberg, The Future of US- China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable? International Security, vol. 30, no. 2, (Fall 2005), pp. 7-45. 3 John J. Mearsheimer, Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Updated Edition, (New York and London: W.W. Norton & Company, 2014), Chapter 10. 4 G. John Ikenberry, The Future of the Liberal World Order: Internationalism After America, Foreign Affairs, (May/June, 2011). 45
18 2 2016 2 5 6 Robert S. Ross 7 Charles L. Glaser 8 Susan Shirk 9 10 5 David Shambaugh, China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order International Security, vol. 29, no. 3, (Winter 2004/2005), pp. 64-99. 6 David Shambaugh, China Goes Global; The Partial Power, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013). 7 Robert S. Ross, The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-First Century, International Security, vol. 23, no. 4, (Spring 1999), pp. 81-118. 8 Charles L. Glaser, Will China s Rise Lead to War?: Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism Foreign Affairs, (March/April 2011), pp. 80-84. 9 Susan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower: How China s Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007.) 10 Robert S. Ross, China s Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response International Security, vol. 34, no. 2, (Fall 2009), pp. 46 81. 46
Thomas J. Christensen 11 Randall Schweller Xiaoyu Pu rightful resistance 12 1 2 11 Thomas Christensen, Posing Problems without Catching up International Security, vol. 25, no. 4, (Spring 2001), pp. 5-40. 12 Randall Schweller and Xiaoyu Pu, After Unipolarity: China s Vision of International Order in an Era of U.S. Decline International Security vol. 36, no. 1, (Summer 2011), pp. 41-72. 47
18 2 2016 2 1 13 14 15 16 13 2013 12 82 14 Shambaugh, China Goes Global, pp. 13-44. 15 2005 6 7 16 82 48
60 17 2014 5 27 60 18 19 17 2014 6 29 18 2014 5 28 19 David C. Kang, Balancing, and Empirical Puzzles in Asian International Relations International Security, vol. 28, no. 3, (Winter, 2003/2004), pp. 165-180. 49
18 2 2016 2 2 1980 1988 1980 1990 1991 1990 20 APEC 21 90 IT 1994 22 20 1978-2001 2015 134-135 21 2007 18-20 22 Johnston Is China a Status Quo Power? 50
NATO 1998 99 NATO 23 2001 WTO 2001 9 11 2003 24 23 24-28 24 36-37 51
18 2 2016 2 25 26 27 28 2005 3 1 2 29 2 1 2008 4 G2 25 11 5 2008 9 50-51 26 9-10 27 21 3 2013 3 28-29 28 52 29 10 52
30 2009 31 2011 3 3 篪 32 20 59 33 CSIS 34 10 26 71 10 50% G2 35 CSIS 20 15 36 30 Zbignew Brzezinski, The Group of Two that could change the world Financial Times, Jan. 13, 2009. 31 2009 7 20 32 篪 2011 3 3 33 Pew Research Center, Views of the United States and American Foreign Policy, (July 14, 2014). 34 CSIS, Power and Order in Asia: A Survey of Regional Expectations, (July 2014). 35 2011 12 30 36 CSIS, Power and Order in Asia: A Survey of Regional Expectations 53
18 2 2016 2 2 2011 10 17 37 38 2012 6 4 60 37 2011 10 17 38 亚 2011 8 8 54
39 6 5 40 2014 2014 4 2014 5 Chuck Hagel CSIS 23 41 2009 2009 2009 42 39 2012 6 4 40 2012 6 5 41 CSIS, Power and Order in Asia: A Survey of Regional Expectations. 42 2014 2 34-38 55
18 2 2016 2 43 2011 2011 2 44 2014 45 3 43 2013 11 19-23 44 2011 02 20 45 2015 2015 118-119 56
46 2014 11 28 29 2012 3 7 篪 47 2013 3 10 篪 21 48 46 2014 1 26 47 篪 2012 3 7 48 篪 2013 3 10 57
18 2 2016 2 49 50 51 2014 10 24 49 2012 4 4-11 50 2005 4 68-70 51 2014 12 17 58
52 2014 11 27 53 54 55 2010 52 2014 10 24 53 2014 8 54 2014 8 11 55 89-97 59
18 2 2016 2 2008 G20 IMF 56 57 56 2010 2 4-18 57 2014 6 29 60
58 59 2012 9 60 2013 3 10 61 2015 70 2014 5 70 62 2014 11 27 2015 70 63 58 Schweller and Pu After Unipolarity: China s Vision of International Order in an Era of U.S. Decline, pp. 41-43. 59 43 96 60 2012 9 11 61 2014 1 10 62 伙 2014 5 30 63 2014 11 27 61
18 2 2016 2 62
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