坂井／３３－６１

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1 W! OASDI ; Old Age Survivors, and Disability Insurance WGeorge W. Bush voluntary personal retirement accounts Ronald W. Reagan William J. Clinton

2 Franklin D. Rooseveltthe Social Security Act of 1935!"# $% 1939 Amendments

3 ! "!" 1956 Amendments 1950 Amendments COLAs ; Cost of Living AllowancesCOLAs 1972 AmendmentsCOLAs COLAs 1977 Amendments! "# $ COLAs

4 COLAs COLAs COLAs CO- LAs 1983 Amendments National Commission on Social Security Reform Findings and Recommendations

5 Consensus Package! "COLAs COLAs #COLAs OASDI COLAs $ HI ; Hospital Insurance % &

6 Advisory Council on Social Security! " Findings, Principles and Recommendations regarding the Overall Social Security System

7 COLAs privatization! Option : Maintenance of Benefit MB plan ; the Maintenance of Benefit plan! "HI OASDI # $ %

8 % " Option :Publicly Held Individual Accounts IA plan ; the Individual Accounts plan! " # $ # Option : Two tired System with Privately held Individual Accounts PSA plan ; the Personal Security Accounts plan

9 transition cost! " # USA ; Universal Savings Account

10 AGI ; adjusted gross income

11 Al Gore the third rail The President s Commission to Strengthen Social Security

12 ! "# $ % &! "

13 # Strengthening Social Security For The 21 st Century Social Security Trustees!" # $

14 % & GDP TSP ; Thrift Savings Plan K!" #$ %

15 Option

16 OptionMB plan OptionIA plan OptionPSA plan Advisory Council on Social Security, Report of the Advisory Council on Social Security, Volume I : Findings and Recommendations, January 1997.

17 President s Commission to Strengthen Social Security, Strengthening Social Security and Creating Personal Wealth for All Americans, December 2001, pp

19 ownership society

21 OASDI ; Old Age Survivors, and Disability Insurance Social Security Office of the Press Secretary, State of the Union Address, February 2, 2005, <http : // March 1, Social Security Administration(SSA), Brief History, Social Security Online, <http : // April 27, SSA, op. cit. Ibid. SSA, Historical Development, Social Security Online, <http : // May 9, cost of living adjustmentcola

22 [SSA(Brief History), op. cit.]cost of Living Allowances (COLAs)CO- LAs cost of living adjustments SSA(Brief History), op. cit. SSA(Brief History), op. cit. FRB Alan Greenspan The National Commission on Social Security Reform, Report of the National Commission on Social Security Reform, January 1983, Chapter 2. SSA, Summary of P.L , (H.R. 1900), Social Security Amendments of 1983 Signed on April 20, 1983, <http : // June 6, SSA, Social Security Amendments of 1983, H.R / P.L (Enacted April 20, 1983), <http : // 2.html>, June 6, Ibid.

23 HI Ibid. SSA(Brief History), op. cit. the Committee on Economic Security SSA 7 members Advisory Board Advisory Council on Social Security, Report of the Advisory Council on Social Security, Volume I : Findings and Recommendations, January Ibid. Off Budget On Budget

24 AIME ; Average Indexed Monthly Earnings Advisory Council on Social Security, op. cit. Ibid. Ibid. Option OptionHI OASDI Ibid AIME

25 AIME AIME Ibid. Ibid Ibid. Option OptionOption Option Office of the Press Secretary, President Clinton Introduces Universal Savings Accounts : Providing Millions of Americans a New Opportunity to Save for Retirement, April 14, 1999, <http : // August 5, Ibid. David E. Rosenbaum, Saving Social Security : Comparing Three

26 Plans, New York Times, March 24, Richard W. Stevenson, Social Security : Divergent Paths, New York Times, March 24, Richard W. Stevenson, Effort to Overhaul Social Security Is Revised, New York Times, May 20, Campaigning on Social Security (Editorial), New York Times, May 29, Alexis Simendinger, The Report Card They Asked For, National Journal,July21, 2001, p.2335.!" #$% & Office of the Press Secretary, President Participates in Social Security Conversation in Pennsylvania, February 10, 2005, <http : // gov/ news/ releases>, March 1, We have an obligation to confront problems. Again, I want to talk about Social Security, which for years has been called the third rail of American politics ; if you touch it, you expire politically. But I believe the job of the President is to confront problems, not to pass them on, not to say, okay, somebody else will solve it. And so I want to talk about Social Security, just like I did in the State of the Union and like I will do over, and over, and over again around this country to make it clear we have a problem. President s Commission to Strengthen Social Security, Strengthening Social Security and Creating Personal Wealth for All Ameri-

27 cans (Report of the President s Commission), December 2001, pp Ibid., pp Ibid., p.15. Ibid., p.16. White House, Strengthening Social Security for the 21 st Century, February 2005, pp.1 2. Ibid., pp.3 4. Ibid., pp.5 8. OMB OMB, Fiscal Year 2006 Mid Session Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, July2005, p.1, p.6. CBO CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook : An Update, August 2005, Summary Table 1. Ibid., p.9. Advisory Council on Social Security, op. cit. Eduardo Porter, Working Out the Numbers, New York Times, February 6, Edmund L. Andrews, Republicans Consider Slowing Benefits Growth for Most, New York Times, March 25, David E. Rosenbaum and Robin Toner, Introducing Private Investments to the Safety Net, New York Times, February 3, Office of the Press Secretary(April 14, 1999), op. cit. White House, op. cit., pp.6 7. ownership society

28 Alex Wayne, Account Options : Carve Out or Add On, CQ Weekly, April 4, 2005, p.838. Alex Wayne, Unions Hit the Field In Overhaul Battle, CQ Weekly, March 28, 2005, p.769. Pew Research Center Wayne, April 4, 2005, op. cit., p.840.adriel Bettelheim, No Market for Next New Deal, CQ Weekly, April 4, 2005, p.828. Newsweek Holly Bailey et al., A Sly Charm Offensive, Newsweek, March 28, 2005, p.28. Alex Wayne, New Stabs at Social Security Plan, CQ Weekly, June 27, 2005, p Adriel Bettelheim, Going Beyond Social Security, CQ Weekly, June 13, 2005, p.1567.

29 Wayne(June 27, 2005), op. cit. Bettelheim(June 13, 2005), op. cit.

2 2 3 4 5 5 6 10 14 17 18 18 20

1. 1990 2001 38 02 2. 90 3. 00 3 4. 02 5.5 3.6 2 5. 02 03 GDP 0 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 10 14 17 18 18 20 1930 50 81090 10 2001 38 2.2 2.301 7 02 3.603 5 3.5 FRB03 2 11 BS BS BS 90 1 Personal Income and Its Disposition