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- すずり あいきょう
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2 4 μ=0, σ=1 5 μ=2, σ=1 5 μ=0, σ= μ=2, σ=2 5 μ=1, θ 1 =0.5, σ=1 5 μ=1, θ 1 =0.5, σ=
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10 3 μ=0, σ=1 5 μ=2, σ=1 6 μ=0, σ= μ=2, σ=2 5 μ=1, θ 1 =0.5, σ=1 5 μ=1, θ 1 =0.5, σ=
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13 自己相関 θ 1 =0.5, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =-0.5, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =0.8, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =0.3, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =0.8, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =-0.8, θ 2 = ラグ 13
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17 自己相関 θ 1 =0.5, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =-0.5, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =0.8, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =0.3, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =0.8, θ 2 = ラグ 自己相関 θ 1 =-0.8, θ 2 = ラグ 17
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21 5 c=1, φ 1 =0.5, σ=1 120 c=1, φ 1 =1, σ= c=1, φ 1 =1.1, σ= c=-2, φ 1 =0.3, σ=0.5 4 c=0, φ 1 =-0.3, σ=2 3 c=-2, φ 1 =-0.8, σ=
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24 自己相関 φ 1 =0.8, φ 2 = ラグ φ 1 =0.1, φ 2 =0.5 自己相関 φ 1 =-0.8, φ 2 = ラグ φ 1 =0.5, φ 2 =-0.8 自己相関 φ 1 =0.5, φ 2 = ラグ φ 1 =0.9, φ 2 =-0.8 自己相関 ラグ 自己相関 ラグ 自己相関 ラグ 24
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28 自己相関 φ 1 =0.8, φ 2 = ラグ φ 1 =0.1, φ 2 =0.5 自己相関 φ 1 =-0.8, φ 2 = ラグ φ 1 =0.5, φ 2 =-0.8 自己相関 φ 1 =0.5, φ 2 = ラグ φ 1 =0.9, φ 2 =-0.8 自己相関 ラグ 自己相関 ラグ 自己相関 ラグ 28
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49 Correlogram of DATA1 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
50 Correlogram of DATA2 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
51 Correlogram of DATA3 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
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58 Correlogram of DATA3 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
59 Correlogram of Residuals from ARMA(1,2) model Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
60 Correlogram of Residuals from ARMA(1,1) model Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
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PAC PAC PAC
PAC PAC PAC + / 398,145,048 411,745,732 13,600,684 24,250,351 25,778,560 1,528,209 4,241,016 3,942,000 299,016 426,636,415 441,466,292 14,829,877 74,000,000 74,000,000 0 74,000,000 74,000,000 0 178,367,442
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