Health impacts of planned coal-fired power plants in
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1 Health impacts of planned coal-fired power plants in Japan 日本で計画中の石炭火力発電所の健康影響について
2 PM2.5: tiny, toxic particles that enter deep into lungs and into the bloodstream PM2.5: 肺や血流の奥深くに入ってしまう小さな毒性粒子
3 Largest environmental health risk in the world 世界中で最も広範囲にわたる環境健康リスク Air pollution is responsible for 4.5 million premature deaths in the world each year (Global Burden of Disease Study) WHO: Air pollution is officially classified as a carcinogen and labeled a leading environmental cause of cancer deaths 世界中で 大気汚染による早死者数は毎年 450 万人にのぼる (Global Burden of Disease Study) WHO: 大気汚染は正式には発癌物質と分類され がん死の主要な環境上の原因 と分類されている
4 世界医師会による声明 : 化石燃料からの投資引き上げを求める 世界各地の人口密集地では 待機中の微粒子量は WHO 推奨の最大 50 倍となっている 交通量の多さ 石炭による火力発電 建設機器による汚染などがその原因だ 世界医師会は 気候変動を 21 世紀における人類の健康への最大の脅威 とする Lancet Commision の表現を留意する
5 世界医師会は 各国の医師組織と全ての保健機関に以下を提言する : 2. エネルギー関連企業に自然エネルギー利用への転換を促すために 厳格な環境規制と基準を強調した方針を打ち出すことを政府に働きかけること 3. 化石燃料の採掘や発電を主な業務としている企業に対する投資を 損失なく行える時に 自然エネルギーから発電する企業に移行するプロセスを始めること
6 Evidence of health risks 健康リスクの証拠 American Cancer Society study : The largest and most well-known study on particulate air pollution and risk of death. アメリカ癌学会 (American Cancer Society) の研究 : 微粒子大気汚染と死亡リスクに関する最も有名な研究 500,000 adults in 50 U.S. states with different air pollution levels were followed between 1982 and 年から1998 年にかけて 米国の50 州で大気汚染度の異なる大人 50 万人が追跡調査された People living in more polluted environments have a significantly higher risk of fatal heart and lung disease and lung cancer. より汚染された環境に住む人々は 致命的な心臓 肺の疾患 肺癌のリスクが有意に高い
7 Health risks from PM2.5 in Japan 日本における PM2.5 の健康リスク Fukuoka Hiroshima Osaka Kobe Sapporo Saitama Kyoto Nagoya Sendai Tokyo Kawasaki Yokohama Increase in the risk of stroke in Japanese cities due to PM2.5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% PM2.5 による日本の脳卒中リスクの増加 Fukuoka Hiroshima Osaka Kobe Sapporo Saitama Kyoto Nagoya Sendai Tokyo Kawasaki Yokohama Increase in the risk of lung cancer in Japanese cities due to PM2.5 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% PM2.5 による日本の肺がんリスクの増加 Calculated using data and methodology of Global Burden of Disease 2015
8 Health risks from PM2.5 in Japan 日本における PM2.5 の健康リスク 200 Deaths per day from ambient air pollution 大気汚染による 1 日あたりの死亡 Japan
9 Impacts of coal power expansion 石炭火力発電の拡大による影響東南アジア 日本 韓国の石炭火力発電所
10 Coal emissions are harmful to human health 石炭火力発電所からの排出物は人間の健康に有害 Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) 微粒子状物質 (PM2.5) SO 2 亜硫酸ガス No x 窒素酸化物 Image sources 画像出典 : cliparts.co; Jupiterimages Corporation; Ozone (O 3 ) オゾン Respiratory and cardiovascular disease 呼吸器および心血管疾患 SO 2 and NO x from power plants oxidize in the atmosphere to form particulate matter (PM). NO x can also increase ozone concentrations. Both PM and ozone lead to premature mortality in people. 発電所からの SO2 や NOx は 大気中で酸化して粒子状物質 (PM) を生成する NOx はまた オゾン濃度を増加させる可能性がある PM とオゾンの両方が人々の早死につながる
11 Power sector dominates SO2 emissions SO2 排出の多くを電力部門が占める 日本の部門ごとの SO2 排出 住居 Residential 3% Japan SO2 emissions by sector (2008) Others 9% その他 電力部門での石炭使用 Coal use in power plants 32% 輸送 Transport 26% その他の燃料 Other fuels in industry 1% 電力部門での原油使用 Oil use in power plants 29%
12 Existing plants and new projects included in the study 今回のレポートに含まれる既存または新設のプロジェクト
13 Most coal-fired power plants planned near large population centers ほとんどの石炭火力発電所が人口密集地近隣で計画されている
14 Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya areas already among most polluted in Japan 東京 大阪 名古屋地区は すでに日本で最も汚染されている
15 Power plant emissions vary widely by facility 発電所の排出物は施設によって大きく異なる Boiler type ボイラー型 Emission control technologies 排出ガス制御技術 Fluidized Bed Combustion (FBC) 流動床燃焼 (FBC) Selective catalytic reduction (NO x ) Stoker 給炭機 Flue gas desulferization (SO 2 ) 煙道ガス脱硫 (SO2) Type of coal 石炭の種類 Images: Ciris Energy; AECOM Process Technologies; dieselnet.com; energy-models.com/boilers Plant specific factors such as the grade of coal being combusted or the emission control technologies in place affect the magnitude and type of emissions coming from each individual coal fired power plant. 燃焼される石炭のグレードや排出制御技術などのプラント固有の要因は 個々の石炭火力発電所からの排出物の量と種類に影響
16 Planned coal power projects would increase air pollutant emissions from coal by a third 計画中の石炭火力発電所は 石炭からの大気汚染物質の排出物を 3 割増加させる 140 Effect of planned coal expansion on emissions 計画中の石炭火力発電の拡大が排出量に与える影響 kt/yr SO2 NOx PM10 Existing plants New projects
17 Emissions from existing and new coal-fired power plants assuming 40-year operating life 既存および新設の石炭火力発電所からの排出量 (40 年間の運転寿命の場合 ) Cumulative 累計 tonnes PM - new plants NOx - new plants SO2 - new plants PM NOx SO SO2 NOx Existing New
18 高砂火力発電所の設備更新計画による効果 NOx の排出量は低下するが その他の項目では増加 150% Effect of "replacing" existing Takasago generating units with proposed new units 100% change in yearly emissions 50% 0% -50% -100% SO2 NOx PM10 CO2 (kt)
19 高砂火力発電所 既設設備と更新設備における累積排出量の比較 350,000 Cumulative emissions from existing and proposed new units at Takasago 300, ,000 tonnes 200, , ,000 50,000 - SO2 NOx PM10 CO2 (kt) Existing units New units
20 GEOS-Chem simulates the concentrations of pollutants GEOS-Chem による汚染物質濃度のシミュレーション Emission inventories 排出インベントリ Pollutant concentrations 汚染物質濃度 Assimilated meteorology 同化気象学 Global 3-D CTM グローバル 3-D CTM GEOS-Chem is a global 3-D chemical transport model used by many research groups around the world to advance our understanding of atmospheric composition and to answer policy relevant questions pertaining to air quality and climate change. GEOS-Chem は 大気組成の理解を深め 大気質や気候変動に関する政策関連の疑問に答えるために 世界中の多くの研究グループが使用する全球的な 3 次元化学輸送モデルです
21 Emissions (SO2, NOx, dust) 排出物 (SO2 NOx 粉塵 ) Coal power plant database developed for the project プロジェクトのために開発された石炭火力発電所データベース Emission rates from official statistics, companies and academic studies 公式統計 企業 学術研究からの排出量 National emission standards 国の排出基準 Dispersion & chemistry in the atmosphere 大気中の分散と化学 Fuel use data from the IEA IEA からの燃料使用データ Cutting-edge atmospheric model (Geos-Chem) at Harvard University ハーバード大学の最先端大気モデル (Geos- Chem) Population exposure to PM2.5 PM2.5 にさらされる人々 Health impacts 健康影響 High-resolution population density maps from NASA NASA の高密度人口密度マップ Results of large epidemiological studies 大規模な疫学調査の結果 Death rates from lung cancer, stroke, heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and lower respiratory infections in each country 各国における肺がん 脳卒中 心疾患 慢性呼吸器疾患および下気道感染症による死亡率
22 Results: air quality impacts 結果 : 大気質の影響
23 稼働中の発電所からの年間平均 PM2.5
24 稼働中および新設の発電所からの年間平均 PM2.5
25 Summer mean ozone from operating plants 稼動中の発電所からの夏期平均オゾン
26 Summer mean ozone from operating and new plants 稼動中および新設の発電所からの夏期平均オゾン
27 ケーススタディの対象とした発電所の健康影響 (1 年 )
28 Key findings from Boom&Bust 2017 Boom&Bust 2017 の要旨 Construction starts of new coal-fired power plants fell 60% globally in 2016, led by China and India where construction at more than 100 project sites is now frozen Unprecedented amount of coal-fired capacity retired in , led by U.S. and EU Three G8 countries committed to coal phase-out in 2016: UK, France, Canada; Belgium, California and Scotland became coal-free The slowdown brings the possibility of holding global warming to below 2 o C within feasible reach 中国やインドを中心に 2016 年には石炭火力発電所の新設が世界的に 60% 減少し 現在 100 以上のプロジェクトの建設が凍結 米国と EU を中心に 年には前例のない規模で石炭火力施設が閉鎖された 2016 年に石炭を段階的に廃止することを約束した 3 つの G8 諸国 : 英国 フランス カナダ ベルギー カリフォルニア スコットランドが脱石炭を達成 石炭火力の減速は 実現可能な範囲内で地球温暖化を 2 以下に保つ可能性をもたらす
29 Scheduled to phase out 計画中 Austria Canada Denmark Finland France New Zealand Portugal United Kingdom Connecticut Hawaii Massachusetts New Mexico New York Oregon Washington Berlin Delhi Countries, states and cities going coal-free 脱石炭をめざす国や都市 Already phased out すでに達成 Belgium Sweden California Ontario Scotland Beijing Coal-free and mostly renewable 脱石炭 ほぼ自然エネルギーを達成 Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Iceland Latvia Norway Paraguay Switzerland Uruguay Idaho Vermont
30 Japan is increasingly isolated among developed countries 日本は先進国の中でますます孤立 New coal power project pipeline in January 年 1 月時点の計画中の新しい石炭発電プロジェクト MW Announced 発表済 Permitting/preparing for permit 申請中 Permitted 許可済 Japan South Korea Poland Germany Australia United States Taiwan Hungary Greece
31 RE the mainstay of power generation investments 発電投資の主流は自然エネルギー Globally, 2014 was the first year when renewable energy use grew more than fossil fuels In U.S. and Europe, majority of new generating capacity is powered by renewable energy; coal is on the decline China s coal use is falling and all of electricity demand growth is being covered from non-fossil sources, mainly renewable energy 世界的に見ると 2014 年は自然エネルギーの使用が化石燃料以上に増加した最初の年であった 米国および欧州では 新発電容量の大半は自然エネルギーで供給されている 石炭は減少している 中国の石炭使用量は減少しており 電力需要の増加は 非化石源 主に自然エネルギーでまかなわれている
32 Recommendations 提言 Cumulative health impact assessment needed Building new coal-fired power plants would lock Japan into the highest-emitting power generation option for decades. The long-term health impacts should be fully assessed and factored in. Air pollutant emissions from all large pollution sources should be disclosed in real-time and on annual basis, like the U.S. already does. Re-think coal-based electricity investment plan in light of health impacts, rapidly improving economics of renewable energy, and the climate crisis 累積的な健康影響評価が必要 石炭火力発電所の新設することは 日本が何十年にもわたって最も排出の多い発電方法を使い続けることを意味する 長期的な健康影響は 十分に評価され 考慮されるべきである すべての大規模な汚染源からの大気汚染物質の排出量は 米国のように リアルタイムかつ年間ベースで開示されるべきである 健康への影響を考慮して石炭火力発電の投資計画を再検討すべき 自然エネルギーによって経済と気候変動危機をすみやかに改善すべきである
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