Microsoft PowerPoint - [FINAL]Japan Lauri 2017 full slide set EN_JP２
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1 Health impacts of planned coal-fired power plants in Japan 日本で計画中の石炭火力発電所の健康影響について
2 PM2.5: tiny, toxic particles that enter deep into lungs and into the bloodstream PM2.5: 肺や血流の奥深くに入り込む微細で有害な粒子状物質
3 Largest environmental health risk in the world 世界中で最も広範囲にわたる環境健康リスク Air pollution is responsible for 4.5 million premature deaths in the world each year (Global Burden of Disease Study) WHO: Air pollution is officially classified as a carcinogen and labeled a leading environmental cause of cancer deaths 世界中で 大気汚染による早死者数は毎年 450 万人にのぼる ( 世界の疾病負担研究 ) 世界保健機構 (WHO): 大気汚染は正式には発癌物質と指定され ガンによる死亡の主要な環境上の原因 と分類されている
4 世界医師会 (WMA) による声明 : 化石燃料からの投資引き上げを求める 世界各地の人口密集地では 大気中の微粒子量は WHO 基準値の最大 50 倍となっている 交通量の多さ 石炭による火力発電 建設機器による汚染などがその原因だ 世界医師会 (WMA) は 気候変動を 21 世紀における人類の健康への最大の脅威 とする Lancet Commision の表現を留意する
5 世界医師会は 各国の医師組織と全ての保健機関に以下を提言する : エネルギー関連企業に自然エネルギー利用への転換を促すために 厳格な環境規制と基準を強調した方針を打ち出すことを政府に働きかけること 化石燃料の採掘や発電を主な業務としているエネルギー関連企業に対する投資を 損失なく変更可能な段階で 自然エネルギーから発電する企業に移行するプロセスを始めること
6 Evidence of health risks 健康リスクの証拠 American Cancer Society study : The largest and most well-known study on particulate air pollution and risk of death. アメリカ癌学会(American Cancer Society) の研究 : 微粒子大気汚染と死亡リスクに関する最も有名な研究 500,000 adults in 50 U.S. states with different air pollution levels were followed between 1982 and 年から1998 年にかけて 米国の50 州で大気汚染度の異なる大人 50 万人が追跡調査された People living in more polluted environments have a significantly higher risk of fatal heart and lung disease and lung cancer. より汚染された環境に住む人々は 致命的な心臓 肺の疾患 肺癌のリスクが有意に高い
7 Health risks from PM2.5 in Japan 日本における PM2.5 の健康リスク Increase in the risk of stroke in Japanese cities due to PM2.5 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Increase in the risk of lung cancer in Japanese cities due to PM2.5 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Fukuoka Hiroshima Osaka Kobe Sapporo Saitama Kyoto Nagoya Sendai Tokyo Kawasaki Yokohama 日本の都市別 PM2.5 による脳卒中リスクの増加 Fukuoka Hiroshima Osaka Kobe Sapporo Saitama Kyoto Nagoya Sendai Tokyo Kawasaki Yokohama 日本の都市別 PM2.5 による肺がんリスクの増加 出典 : 世界の疾病負担研究 (2015 年 ) のデータと方法をもとに算出
8 Health risks from PM2.5 in Japan 日本における PM2.5 の健康リスク 200 Deaths per day from ambient air pollution 大気汚染による 1 日あたりの死亡者数 Japan
9 Impacts of coal power expansion 石炭火力発電の拡大による影響東南アジア 日本 韓国の石炭火力発電所
10 Coal emissions are harmful to human health 石炭火力発電所からの排出は人間の健康に有害 Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) 微細粒子状物質 (PM2.5) SO 2 二酸化硫黄 No x 窒素酸化物 Image sources 画像出典 : cliparts.co; Jupiterimages Corporation; Ozone (O 3 ) オゾン Respiratory and cardiovascular disease 呼吸器官および心臓血管の疾患 SO 2 and NO x from power plants oxidize in the atmosphere to form particulate matter (PM). NO x can also increase ozone concentrations. Both PM and ozone lead to premature mortality in people. 火力発電所から大気中に排出される SO2 や NOx は 粒子状物質 (PM) 生成の原因となる NOx はオゾン濃度を増加させる PM とオゾンの若年死の原因となる
11 Power sector dominates SO2 emissions SO2 排出の多くを電力部門が占める 日本の部門ごとのSO2 排出 (2008 年 ) Japan SO2 emissions by sector (2008) 住居 Residential 3% Others 9% その他 電力部門での石炭使用 Coal use in power plants 32% 輸送 Transport 26% その他の燃料 Other fuels in industry 1% 電力部門での原油使用 Oil use in power plants 29%
12 Existing plants and new projects included in the study 今回のレポートに含まれる既設および新設のプロジェクト
13 Most coal-fired power plants planned near large population centers ほとんどの石炭火力発電所が人口が密集地近隣で計画されている
14 Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya areas already among most polluted in Japan 東京 大阪 名古屋地区は すでに日本で最も汚染されている
15 Boiler type ボイラー タイプ Power plant emissions vary widely by facility 発電所の排出物は設備に大きく依存 Emission control technologies 排出管理技術 Fluidized Bed Combustion (FBC) 流動層燃焼装置 (FBC) Stoker ストーカー Flue gas desulferization (SO 2 ) 排煙脱硫 (SO2) Selective catalytic reduction (NO x ) 選択触媒還元 (NO x ) Type of coal 石炭の種類 Images: Ciris Energy; AECOM Process Technologies; dieselnet.com; energy-models.com/boilers Plant specific factors such as the grade of coal being combusted or the emission control technologies in place affect the magnitude and type of emissions coming from each individual coal fired power plant. 燃焼される石炭の等級あるいは設置されている排出管理技術など発電所固有の状況により 石炭火力発電所からの排出量や廃棄物の種類が異なる
16 Planned coal power projects would increase air pollutant emissions from coal by a third 計画中の石炭火力発電所は 石炭からの大気汚染物質の排出物を 3 割増加させる 140 Effect of planned coal expansion on emissions 計画中の石炭火力発電の拡大が排出量に与える影響 kt/yr SO2 NOx PM10 Existing plants New projects
17 Emissions from existing and new coal-fired power plants assuming 40-year operating life 既設および新設の石炭火力発電所からの排出量 ( 運転寿命 40 年の場合 ) Cumulative 累計 tonnes PM new plants NOx new plants SO2 new plants PM NOx SO SO2 NOx Existing New
18 GEOS-Chem simulates the concentrations of pollutants GEOS-Chem による汚染物質濃度のシミュレーション Emission inventories 排出インベントリ Pollutant concentrations 汚染物質濃度 Assimilated meteorology 気象解析 0 o N Global 3-D CTM 全球 3 次元化学輸送モデル (CTM) 0 o N 0 o N 0 o N 0 o GEOS-Chem is a global 3-D chemical transport model used by many research groups around the world to advance our understanding of atmospheric composition and to answer policy relevant questions pertaining to air quality and climate change. GEOS-Chem は 大気組成の理解を深め 大気質や気候変動に関する政策関連の疑問に答えるために 世界中の多くの研究グループが使用する全球的な 3 次元化学輸送モデルです
19 Emissions (SO2, NOx, dust) 排出物 (SO2 NOx 粉塵 ) Coal power plant database developed for the project プロジェクトのために開発された石炭火力発電所データベース Emission rates from official statistics, companies and academic studies 公式統計 企業 学術研究からの排出量 National emission standards 国の排出基準 Dispersion & chemistry in the atmosphere 大気中の分散と化学 Fuel use data from the IEA IEA からの燃料使用データ Cutting edge atmospheric model (Geos Chem) at Harvard University ハーバード大学の最先端大気モデル (Geos Chem) Population exposure to PM2.5 PM2.5 にさらされる人々 Health impacts 健康影響 High resolution population density maps from NASA NASA の高密度人口密度マップ Results of large epidemiological studies 大規模な疫学調査の結果 Death rates from lung cancer, stroke, heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and lower respiratory infections in each country 各国における肺がん 脳卒中 心疾患 慢性呼吸器疾患および下気道感染症による死亡率
20 Results: air quality impacts 結果 : 大気質の影響
21 稼働中の発電所からの年間平均 PM2.5
22 稼働中および新設の発電所からの年間平均 PM2.5
23 Summer mean ozone from operating plants 稼動中の発電所からの夏期平均オゾン排出
24 Summer mean ozone from operating and new plants 稼働中および新設の発電所からの夏期平均オゾン排出
25 0.6 Cities most affected by coal power plant pollution in Japan 石炭火力発電所からの汚染で最も影響を受ける日本の都市 PM2.5, current PM2.5, future
26 Results: health impacts 結果 : 健康影響
27 Annual premature deaths from existing plants 既存の発電所による年間早期死亡者数 Pollutant 汚染物質 Effect 影響 Number 数 Confidence interval 信頼区間 PM2.5 Lung cancer 肺がん 130 (50 200) PM2.5 Ischaemic heart disease 虚血性心疾患 370 ( ) PM2.5 Stroke 脳卒中 220 ( ) PM2.5 Other cardiovascular disease その他の心臓血管疾患 190 ( ) PM2.5 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 慢性閉塞性肺疾患 50 (30 70) PM2.5 Other respiratory diseases その他の呼吸器疾患 80 (50 110) O3 Respiratory diseases 呼吸器疾患 70 (20 120) Total 合計 1120 ( )
28 Annual premature deaths if new projects come online 新設の発電所が稼動した場合の年間早期死亡者数 Pollutant 汚染物質 Effect 影響 Number 数 Confidence interval 信頼区間 PM2.5 Lung cancer 肺がん 200 (90 320) PM2.5 Ischaemic heart disease 虚血性心疾患 460 ( ) PM2.5 Stroke 脳卒中 280 ( ) PM2.5 Other cardiovascular disease その他の心臓血管疾患 270 ( ) PM2.5 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 慢性閉塞性肺疾患 90 (60 130) PM2.5 Other respiratory diseases その他の呼吸器疾患 140 (80 190) O3 Respiratory diseases 呼吸器疾患 120 (30 200) Total 1570 ( )
29 Lifetime impacts 生がいにわたる影響 Running the existing coal plant fleet to end-of-life would cause approximately 16,000 avoidable deaths from air pollution 既設の石炭火力発電所を運転寿命まで稼働すると 大気汚染による死亡は約 16,000 件になる Building and operating the proposed coal plants would cause a projected 18,000 additional premature deaths, more than doubling the future health impacts from coal-fired power generation 計画中の石炭火力発電所を建設し 操業すれば早期死亡は18,000 人にのぼると予測され 石炭火力発電による将来の健康への影響は2 倍以上になる t/a Emissions from existing coal fired power plants assuming 40 year operating life 既設の石炭火力発電所からの排出量 ( 運転寿命 40 年の場合 ) SO2 NOx PM
30
31 Key findings from Boom&Bust 2017 Boom&Bust 2017 の要旨 Construction starts of new coal-fired power plants fell 60% globally in 2016, led by China and India where construction at more than 100 project sites is now frozen Unprecedented amount of coal-fired capacity retired in , led by U.S. and EU Three G8 countries committed to coal phase-out in 2016: UK, France, Canada; Belgium, California and Scotland became coal-free The slowdown brings the possibility of holding global warming to below 2 o C within feasible reach 中国やインドを中心に 2016 年には石炭火力発電所の新設が世界的に60% 減少し 現在 100 以上のプロジェクトの建設が凍結 米国とEUを中心に 年には前例のない規模で石炭火力施設が閉鎖された 2016 年に石炭を段階的に廃止することを約束した3つのG8 諸国 : 英国 フランス カナダ ベルギー カリフォルニア スコットランドが脱石炭を達成 石炭火力の減少は 実現可能な範囲内で地球温暖化を2 以下に保つ可能性をもたらす
32 Scheduled to phase out 計画中 Countries, states and cities going coal-free 脱石炭をめざす国や都市 Already phased out すでに達成 Coal free and mostly renewable 脱石炭 ほぼ自然エネルギーを達成 Austria Canada Denmark Finland France New Zealand Portugal United Kingdom Connecticut Hawaii Massachusetts New Mexico New York Oregon Washington Berlin Delhi Belgium Sweden California Ontario Scotland Beijing Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Iceland Latvia Norway Paraguay Switzerland Uruguay Idaho Vermont
33 Japan is increasingly isolated among developed countries 日本は先進国の中でますます孤立 New coal power project pipeline in January 年 1 月時点の計画中の新しい石炭発電プロジェクト MW Announced 発表済 Permitting/preparing for permit 申請中 Permitted 許可済 Japan South Korea Poland Germany Australia United States Taiwan Hungary Greece
34 RE the mainstay of power generation investments 発電投資の主流は自然エネルギー Globally, 2014 was the first year when renewable energy use grew more than fossil fuels In U.S. and Europe, majority of new generating capacity is powered by renewable energy; coal is on the decline China s coal use is falling and all of electricity demand growth is being covered from non-fossil sources, mainly renewable energy 世界的に見ると 2014 年は自然エネルギーの使用が化石燃料以上に増加した最初の年であった 米国および欧州では 新たな発電容量の大半は自然エネルギーで供給されている 石炭は減少している 中国の石炭使用量は減少しており 電力需要の増加は 非化石燃料 主に自然エネルギーでまかなわれている
35 Recommendations 提言 Cumulative health impact assessment needed Building new coal-fired power plants would lock Japan into the highest-emitting power generation option for decades. The long-term health impacts should be fully assessed and factored in. Air pollutant emissions from all large pollution sources should be disclosed in real-time and on annual basis, like the U.S. already does. Re-think coal-based electricity investment plan in light of health impacts, rapidly improving economics of renewable energy, and the climate crisis 累積的な健康影響調査が必要 石炭火力発電所を新設することは 日本が何十年にもわたって最も排出量の多い発電方法を使い続けることを意味する 長期的な健康影響を十分に評価し 計画に反映させるべきである 大規模な汚染排出源からの大気汚染物質の排出は 米国のように 全てリアルタイムかつ年間ベースで開示されるべきである 健康への影響の視点から石炭火力発電の投資計画を再検討すべき 自然エネルギー経済を速やかに発展させる方法を再考する
36 Thank you!
Microsoft PowerPoint - [FINAL]Japan Lauri min slide set EN_JP２.pptx
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Health impacts of planned coal-fired power plants in Japan 日本で計画中の石炭火力発電所の健康影響について Largest environmental health risk in the world 世界中で最も広範囲にわたる環境健康リスク Air pollution is responsible for 4.5 million premature
Health impacts of planned coal-fired power plants in
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