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1 * MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP 18% 2.6% Keywords: Mobile Number Portability (MNP), Switching Cost, Nested Logit Model, Choice-based Sampling JEL Classification: D12, L (Mobile Number Portability MNP) MNP * ( ) ( ) ( ) Empirical Micro Forum t-kitano@grips.ac.jp 1
2 MNP MNP 3 MNP MNP 2 (Nested Logit Model NL ) MNP MNP MNP MNP 1 Klemperer(1987) 2 3 MNP MNP
3 MNP Choice-based Choice-based Manski and Lerman(1977) Weighted Exogenous Sampling Maximum Likelihood(WESML) 2 Shy(2002) Kim(2003) 4 Shum(2004) Chen and Hitt(2002) 5 MNP 6 MNP MNP MNP 18 MNP % 4 Kim Farrel and Klemperer(2008) Klemperer(1995) 6 MNP Ida and Kuroda(2009) Lee et al.(2006) 3
4 MNP MNP 6 2. MNP 2.1 MNP Choice-based 7 3 (NTT au ) 2-1 (i) ( 1000) (%) (%) (%) NTT au (ii) ( 500) (%) (%) (%) NTT au MNP 2% 4
5 MNP MNP MNP 2-2 MNP 64% MNP MNP MNP MNP 5 MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP 1. MNP MNP 3 3. MNP au MNP PHS
6 MNP MNP 8 3. (NTT au ) MNP MNP MNP MNP 3-1 A [ A B C ] 3 B C [MNP MNP ] B C 1 2 MNP NL 9 NL MNP MNP MNP MNP 12 4 au 7 PHS 9 NL 6
![3-1 A [ A B C ] 3 B C [MNP MNP ] B C](/docs-images/46/20537623/images/page_6.jpg "1 2 MNP NL 9 NL MNP MNP MNP 8 10 24 1")
7 3-1 MNP 10 h i h, i h h McFadden(1978) i j U i, j, MNP = = V P S M ( α + x ' α )* p + ( β + x ' β + ( γ + x ' γ )* MNP ) 0 + x' δ 0 i 1 + ε i, j, MNP ( λ) ( θ) + V ( γ) + ε ( λ) i, j, MNP 0 i i, j, MNP 1 0 i 1 * SWITCH (3-1) MNP MNP 1 0 MNP MNP h U ih V V i, P S ( θ) = ( α0 + xi ' α1) * p + ( β0 + xi ' β1) * M j, MNP ( γ) = ( γ 0 + xi ' γ1) * MNP ) SWITCH * SWITCH + x' δ 0 (3-2) MNP 10 NL Independence of Irrespective Alternatives (IIA) MNP 7
8 x P i x S i x M i x NTT au MNP i j MNP 1 0 SWITCH j 1 0 θ=(α 0, α 1 ', β 0, β 1 ', δ 0 ')' γ=(γ 0 γ 1 ')' MNP ε i,j,mnp (λ) (Generalized Extreme Value GEV) λ λ McFadden(1978) p i j 11 λ 1 2 Gumbell ( 1 ) 8
9 p NL i j h MNP MNP P i,mnp j P P i, j, ( θ, γ, λ) = P ( θ, λ) Pi, MNP j ( θ, γ, λ) (3-3) MNP (3-3) exp( V ( θ) + λi ( γ, λ)) P ( θ, γ, λ) = (3-4) exp( V ( θ)) + exp( V ( θ) + λi ( γ, λ)) ih l h il il 12 (discrete-continuous choice model) (Hanemann(1984)) % 9
10 P i, MNP j ( exp( V i, j, MNP ( γ) λ) γ, λ) = (3-5) { 0,1 } exp( V,, ( ) ) MNP i j MNP γ λ I MNP 14 I ( γ, λ ) = ln( exp( V ( ) )) { 0,1},, λ MNP i j MNP γ (3-6) = ln(1 + exp(( γ 0 + x M i ' γ 1 )* SWITCH λ )) h exp( Vih ( θ)) Pih ( θ, γ, λ) = (3-7) exp( V ( θ)) + exp( V ( θ) + λi ( γ, λ)) ih l h il il Choice-based SWITCH Manski and Lerman(1977) Weighted Exogenous Sampling Maximum Likelihood (WESML) Choice-based WESML WLL( θ, γ, λ) = [ w y ln P + w y ln P ] (3-8) h i N ih ih ih j h MNP { 0,1} i, j, MNP i, j, MNP h, N h h y ih i N h h 1 0 y i j MNP j MNP 1 0 w i h 14 MNP 0 NL Train(2003) Ben-Akiva and Lerman(1985) 10
11 1 QS if j = h 1 H S w = (3-9) QS otherwise H S Q S H S MNP % MNP 2 MNP MNP MNP 800 8% 15 MNP MNP MNP 8% 6% (3-8) (θ γ λ) (ˆ, θ γˆ, ˆ) λ = arg maxwll( θ, γ, λ) (3-10) ( θ, γ, λ ) 4. 15, HS MNP MNP H S 11
12 MNP MNP 4 SWITCH 4-1 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) MNP ( % ) 1279( 1537 ) MNP 12
13 MNP γ MNP 3.2 MNP 3-2 MNP 64% MNP γ 4-1 MNP 15% MNP 10% MNP ε i,j, MNP (Hausman(1996) Nevo(2001)) 16 Shum(2004) 13
14 % 6% NL 1 (i) WESML(8%) (ii) WESML(6%) (iii) ML( ) *** *** *** * ** *( ) switch *** *** *** switch* ** switch* switch* ** au *** au* * *** au* ** * *** au* *** *** *** * * * * *** * MNP * * * λ * Log likelihood *** ** * % 14
15 SWITCH SWITCH (iii) (ii) 6% 1.5 SWITCH SWITCH (iii) au au NTT NTT au 8% au NTT au 8% au au NTT (2006) au LISMO NTT i 17 MNP 4-2 (iv) MNP Manski and Lerman(1977) WESML 17 au NTT 15
16 (Greene(2008) ) 18 λ McFadden(1978) MNP MNP MNP MNP 5.1 Klemperer(1995) Choice-based Cosslett(1981) Imbens(1992) Choice-based 19 Klemperer(1995) (1) (Need for compatibility with existing equipment) (2) (Transaction costs of switching suppliers) (3) (Costs of learning to use new brands) (4) (Uncertainty about the quality of untested brands) (5) (Discount coupons and similar devices) 5 16
17 , MNP MNP MNP MNP j exp( V ( θ)) P ( θ ) = (5-1) exp( V ( θ)) l s s il P ( p s, SWITCH = 1) = P ( p, SWITCH = 0) (5-2) p (4-2) 1 s ( 0 x S = β + i ' β) α i (5-3) α i = α 0 + x P i 'α 1 (5-4) (5-3) MNP (3-4) MNP j λi MNP MNP MNP s MNP j MNP j MNP MNP ~ MNP P ( p s, SWITCH = 1) = P ( p, SWITCH = 0) (5-5) 17
18 ~ P ( p s MNP, SWITCH = 1) = exp( V exp( V ( θ, SWITCH ( θ, SWITCH = 1) + λi = 1) + λi ) ) + l j exp( V il ( θ)) (5-6) i h l h,j (5-5) (5-6) MNP MNP 1 s [ λ ln(1 exp(( γ 0 x M s = + + i ' γ1) λ))] (5-7) α i MNP (i)-(iv) (5-3) (5-7) (s ) MNP (s - s MNP ) MNP 25% 1 8% 6-8% MNP MNP % 5-1 MNP (i) WESML(8%) (ii) WESML(6%) (iii) ML( ) ( ) MNP ( ) (%)
19 6% MNP 3 MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP 19
20 NL 2 MNP MNP 8% 6% MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP NL MNP 21 [ ln( exp( Vih ( θ) ) + exp( Vil ( θ) + λi il ( γ, λ) )) ln( exp( V ( )))] 1 E( CSi ) = l h j θ α i (5-8) 8% 6% Small and Rosen(1981) (6-9) McFadden(1999) Herriges and Kling(1999) (Train(2003))
![θ) + λi il ( γ, λ) )) ln( exp( V ( )))] 1 E( CSi ) = l h j θ α i](/docs-images/46/20537623/images/page_20.jpg "(5-8) 8% 6% 5-2 21 Small and Rosen(1981) (6-9) McFadden(1999)")
21 (i) WESML(8%) (ii) WESML(6%) (iii) ML( ) MNP 6-8% MNP 5-2 8% 6% 5-2 8% 6% 0-30 MNP 21
22 MNP MNP 3 MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP 5.2 MNP MNP MNP 5.1 MNP 5-3 MNP 8% 6% 3 MNP 8% 6% 10.25% 8.56% MNP MNP 8% 6% 2.77% 2.42% MNP 2.6% 8% (i) WESML(8%) (ii) WESML(6%) (iv) ML( )
23 6% 87% 91% MNP 3 2 8% 6% MNP MNP MNP 18% MNP % MNP 2 MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP MNP 23
24 (state dependence) (taste heterogeneity) Heckman(1981) (spurious state dependence) MNP Ben-Akiva, M., and S. R. Lerman, 1985, Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, MIT Press. Chen, P., and L. M. Hitt, 2002, Measuring Switching Cost and the Determinants of Customer Retention in Internet-Enabled Businesses: A study of the Online Brokerage Industry, Information Systems Research, 13(3), Cosslett, S. R., 1981, Efficient Estimation of Discrete Choice Models, in Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Applications, ed. By C. F. Manski and D. McFadden, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, Farrell, J., and P. Klemperer, 2008, Coordination and Lock-In: Competition with Switching Costs and Network Effects, in Handbook of Industrial Organization, vol. III, North-Holland, Amsterdam. Greene, W. H., 2008, Econometric Analysis, Prentice Hall, 6 th Edition. Hanemann, M. W., 1984, Discrete/Continuous Models of Consumer Demand, Econometrica 52(3), Hausman, J., 1996, Valuation of New Goods under Perfect and Imperfect Competition, in T. 24
25 Bresnahan, T. and R. Gordon eds., The Economics of New Goods, Studies in Income and Wealth Vol.58, Chicago: National Bureau of Economic Research. Heckman, J., 1981, Heterogeneity and State Dependence, in S. Rosen ed., Studies in Labor Markets, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, Herriges, J. A., and C. L. Kling, 1999, Nonlinear Income Effects in Random Utility Models, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(1), Ida, T. and T. Kuroda, 2009, Discrete Choice Model Analysis of Demand for Mobile Telephone Service in Japan, Empirical Economics 36(1), Imbens, G. W., 1992, An Efficient Method of Moments Estimator for Discrete Choice Models with Choice-Based Sampling, Econometrica 60(5), Kim, J., 2006, Consumer s Dynamic Switching Decision in the Cellular Service Industry, Manuscript, University of Wisconsin. Kim, M., D. Kliger, B. Vale, 2003, Estimating Switching Costs: the Case of Banking, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 12, Klemperer, P., 1987, The Competitiveness of Markets with Switching Costs, RAND Journal of Economics, 18(1), Klemperer, P., 1995, Competition When Consumers Have Switching Costs: An Overview with Applications to Industrial Organization, Macroeconomics, and International Trade, Review of Economic Studies, 62(4), Lee, J., Y. Kim, J. Lee, and Y. Park, 2006, Estimating the Extent of Potential Competition in the Korean Mobile Telecommunications Market: Switching Costs and Number Portability, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 24,
26 Manski, C. F., and S. R. Lerman, 1977, The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples, Econometrica 45(8), McFadden, D., 1978, Modeling the Choice of Residential Location, in A. Karlqvist, L. Lundqvist, F. Snickars, and J. Weibull eds., Spatial Interaction Theory and Residential Location, North-Holland, Amsterdam. McFadden, D., 1999, Computing Willingness-to-Pay in Random Utility Models, in J. Moore, R. Riezman, and J. Melvin eds., Trade, Theory and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of John S. Chipman, Routledge: London. Nevo, A., 2001, Measuring Market Power in the Ready-To-Eat Cereal Industry, Econometrica 69(2), Shum, M., 2004, Does Advertising Overcome Brand Loyalty? Evidence from the Breakfast-Cereal Market, Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, 13(2), Shy, O., 2002, A Quick-and-Easy Method for Estimating Switching Costs, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 20(1), Small, A., K., and H. S. Rosen, 1981, Applied Welfare Economics with Discrete Choice Models, Econometrica, 49(1), Train, K., 2003, Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, Cambridge University Press. (2008) Web2.0 (2004) (2006)
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