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1 VEHICLE DEMAND AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES JARI-INDONESIA ROUNDTABLE 2008 BOROBUDUR HOTEL JAKARTA, 14 FEBRUARY 2008
2 OVERVIEW 1. INDONESIA AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY 1.1 ASEAN DOMESTIC SALES 1.2 INDONESIA DOMESTIC SALES AND DEMAND FORECAST 1.3 MOTOR VEHICLE POPULATION IN INDONESIA 2. INDONESIA ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 2.1 EMISSION POLICY 2.2 CURRENT MARKET FUEL 2.3 VEHICLE POPULATION AND ROAD CONDITION 3. ASEAN AUTOMOTIVE FEDERATION (AAF) PROPOSALS 3.1 PROPERTIES OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL 3.2 PROPERTIES OF BIO DIESEL AND BIO ETHANOL 4. GAIKINDO PROPOSALS
3 1. INDONESIA AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
4 AUTOMOTIVE MARKET IN ASEAN % 15.2% 13.0% 21.4% 11.6% 13.7% 5.8% (X 1000 UN NIT) THAILAND MALAYSIA INDONESIA SINGAPORE PHILIPPINES VIETNAM TOTAL Source : GAIKINDO
5 x x x x x AUTOMOTIVE MARKET IN INDONESIA x +10.5% % -40.3% % +11.6% -35.9% SEDAN TYPE/M X2 TYPE/M X4 TYPE/M BUS/M2,M PU&TRUCK/N1&N DOUBLE CABIN/N TOTAL Source : GAIKINDO
6 (X 1000 unit) AUTOMOTIVE MARKET & FORECAST IN INDONESIA Optimis Normal Pesimis Source : GAIKINDO
7 VEHICLES POPULATION 2010 FORECAST (ALL CATAGORIES) A. PASSENGER CARS 1. GASOLINE : DIESEL : SUB TOTAL B. COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 1. GASOLINE : DIESEL : SUB TOTAL GRAND TOTAL Note : exclude Parallel Importers, and others 10%
8 2. INDONESIA ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
9 CURRENT FUEL MARKET Ref: Dir. Gen. of Oil and Gas, Decree No. 3674K/24/DJM/2006 for Gasoline Fuel, 3675K/24/DJM/2006 for Diesel Fuel BRANDED Fuel Spec. Type base on 3674K/2006 Gasoline Branded d COMPANY 88 LG 88 ULG 91 ULG 95 ULG Premium (Leaded) Phase out in June 2006 Premium (Unleaded) PERTAMINA Bio Premium (E5) Pertamax Bio Pertamax (E5) Pertamax Plus Super 92 SHELL Super Extra 95 Prima 92 PETRONAS Primax PX2 Petrol 92 GULF Petrol Super 95 BRANDED COMPANY PERTAMINA SHELL GULF Diesel Branded Name Regular Solar Bio Solar (B5) Pertamina Dex Shell Solar D-xtra Fuel Spec. Type base on 3675K/2006 CN 48 (S<3500ppm) CN 51(S<500ppm) (S = ppm) (S = ppm) (S ~ 350ppm) (S ~ 5000ppm) (S ~ 350ppm) Sources : GAIKINDO
10 VEHICLE POPULATION IN JAKARTA PROVINCE YEAR M-CYCLE PASSENGER CARS TRUCKS BUSSES TOTAL ,813,136 1,130, , ,648 3,544, ,257,194 1,195, , ,849 4,074, ,316,900 1,529, , ,652 5,627, ,940,700 1,645, , ,396 6,390, ,647,435 1,766, , ,502 7,230, ,310,068 1,835, , ,050 7,967,498 Sumber / Source : Ditlantas Polda Metro Jaya
11 ROAD CLASSES IN JAKARTA PROVINCE ROAD CLASSES LENGTH (m) AREA (sq-m) STATUS (1) (2) (3) (4) 1. Toll , ,00 Toll 2. Primary Artery , ,00 National 3. Primary Hubs , ,50 National 4. Secondary Artery , ,00 Province 5. Secondary Hubs , ,77 Province 6. Districts , ,81 District --- Jumlah , ,08 Sumber / Source : Dinas Pekerjaan Umum Provinsi DKI Jakarta
12 AUTOMOTIVE EMISSION REGULATION ACHIEVEMENT KM-141/2003 Euro II Implementation Euro 0 Euro II Euro IV (Plan) New Model Existing Model Before Total Units (millions) 8.0 Euro-2 Car Technology 6.0 Starting Euro 2 New Model Starting Euro 2 Existing Model Idle Emission Regulation Car Technology To be improved 1. Fuel quality spec.?, 2. Periodic Inspection?, 3. Traffic Management? Timing
13 3. ASEAN AUTOMOTIVE FEDERATION (AAF) PROPOSALS
14 AAF Recommendation for Euro4 Gasoline Items unit AAF EN228/99 Comment Priority WWFC Recommendation (Class A/EURO4) Cat.4 Density,g/cm same to EN Octane Number RON 91/95/98 91/95 same to EN 91/95/98 MON 81/85/88 81/85 same to EN 82.5/85/88 AKI RVP,kPa S : 60 max S : 60 max same to EN 60 max W : *1) Distillation, T T max almost same EP 210 max 210 max to EN 195 max Residue (vol%) 2 max. 2 max. E E E min Hydrocarbons Aromatics 35 max 35 max 35 max Olefins 18 max 18 max 10 max Benzene 1.0 max. 1.0 max. same to EN 1 max *2) Oxygenates Oxygen,wt% 2.7 max. 2.7 max. same to EN 2.7max Sulfur,ppm 50 max *4) 50 max same to EN 10 max Lead,g/L N.D *3) max same to EN ND Metals ND N.D *3) ND Existent Gum (Washed),mg/100mL 5 max 5 max same to EN 5 max Copper Corrosion 1 max 1 max same to EN 1 max Oxidation Stability,min 480 min 360 min see note 480 min Appearance Clear & Bright Clear & Bright same to EN
15 AAF Recommendation for Euro4 Diesel Fuel Items unit AAF EN590/99 comment Priority WWFC Recommendation (Euro4) (Euro4) Cat.4 Density,g/cm same to EN Cetane Index 51 min. 46 min. 52 min. Cetane Number 51 min. 51 min. 55 min. Viscosity it 30,mm2/s Viscosity 40,mm2/s same to EN Flash Point, 55 min. 55 min. same to EN 55 min. Distillation, T T max 340 EP almost same 350 E max. to EN E min. E min. Hydrocarbons Aromatics - PAH 11 max 11 max 11 max Oxygenates Oxygen,wt% FAME,vol% TBD *1) Alcohol,vol% N.D. Lubricity(HFRR), m 460 max 460 max. same to EN 400 max. Sulfur,ppm 50 max *3) 50 max. same to EN 10 max. 10% Carbon Residue,wt% 0.30 max 0.30 max. same to EN 0.30 max. Cloud Point, *2) Pour Point, *2) CFPP, *2) Appearance Clear & Bright same to EN (gasoline) Water,mg/kg 200 max 200 max. same to EN 200 max. Oxidation Stability,g/m3 25 max 25 max. same to EN 25 max. Copper Corrosion 1 max 1 max. same to EN 1 max. Particulates,mg/L 10 max. 10 max same to EN 10 max Ash,wt% 0.01 max 0.01 max. same to EN 0.01 max.
16 AAF Recommendation of FAME (B100) for up to B5 Blend Items AAF Rec. EN14214 Soyabean Jatropha Sunflower Coconut Palm (Draft) ME ME ME ME ME Test method Ester content mass% 96.5 min 96.5 min EN mod. Density g/ml JIS K 2249 Kinematic Viscosity mm2/s TBD JIS K 2283 Flash Point TBD 120 min JIS K 2265 Sulfur ppm 10 max 10 max <100 <100 < JIS K , -2, -6 or- 10% Carbon Residue mass% 0.3 max 0.3 max 0.2 < JIS K 2270 Cetane Number 51 min 51 min JIS K 2280 Sulfated Ash mass% 0.02 max 0.02 max <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 JIS K 2272 Water ppm 500 max 500 max JIS K 2275 Total Contamination ppm 24 max 24 max EN Copper Corrosion 1 max 1 max JIS K 2513 Acid mgkoh/g 0.5 max 0.5 max JIS K 2501, JIS K Oxidation Stability Hr 10 minimum 6 min Iodine Number gi/100g TBD 120 max JIS K 0070 Linolenic acid methyl ester mass% 12.0 max 12.0 max < EN Multi unsaturated acid methyl ester mass% 1 max 1 max <0.05 <0.02 < Methanol mass% 0.20 max 0.20 max <0.01 <0.01 < JIS K 2536, EN Mono glyceride mass% 0.80 max 0.80 max < EN Di glyceride mass% 0.20 max 0.20 max EN Tri glyceride mass% 0.20 max 0.20 max 0.1 <0.01 < EN Free glycerine mass% 0.02max 0.02max < EN 14105, EN14106 Total glycerine mass% 0.25 max 0.25 max EN Metals (Na + K) ppm 5max 5max <0.5 <0.5 <0.5 <1 2.6 EN 14108, EN Metals (Ca + Mg) ppm 5 max 5 max < <0.5 <1 17 pren Phospourus ppm 10 max 10 max 1 7 <0.5 <1 8.6 EN Pour point CFPP
17 AAF Recommendation of Ethanol (E100) foruptoe10blend Proposed AAF Japan Europe Brazil Brazil US Anhydrous Anhydrous Anhydrous Anhydrous Anhydrous unit Hydrous Properties No Denature No Denature No Denature No Denature Denatured Clear & Clear & Clear & Clear & Clear & No Visible No Visible No Visible No Visible Bright Appearance Impurities Impurities Impurities Impurities Ethanol vol % 99.5 min - (99.57 min) 92.1 min Alcohol(EtOH+C3+) mass % min 99.3 min Methanol g/l 4 max ppm (=0.5 max) 1 m/m% max max Density kg/m max ase on ASTM D4806/ JASO M Existent Gum mg/100ml max 5.0 Water mass % vol % (=0.5 max) max Denature vol % Hydrocarbon max 3.0 max - Organic impuritiesiti mass % 1 max Electric Conductivity us/m 500 max max 500 max - Na mg/kg max - Iron mg/kg max Heave Metal max Evaporative Residue max - Cupper mg/kg 0.1max max max Chronic Ion ppm - 0.1max - 40 max mg/l max (32 max) Sulfate mg/kg - 20 max 4max 1max - Acidity mass % max - ( max) max mg/l max 30 max 30 max (56 max) phe 7.0± Sulfur mg.kg 10 max max B
18 4. GAIKINDO PROPOSAL ON EMISSION REDUCTION 1. FUEL SPECIFICATION a. Fuel Availability which comply with EURO-4 emission standard requirements from b. Implementation of EURO-4 emission standards start from 2012 for M1 & N1 vehicle categories c. Bio fuel properties for motor vehicles should establish by the government. 2. PERIODIC INSPECTION a. Enhancement of periodic inspection implementation for public and commercial transportation t ti vehicles. b. Establishment of Regulation on Periodic Inspection for private vehicles. 3. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ISSUES a. To anticipate the growth of new vehicle population, additional length and area of road classes should be considered. b. Capacity development of integrated mass rapid transport modes.
19 CURRENT FUTURE ANDONG HYBRID
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