デフレの定義(最新版).PDF

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1 DP/01-1 Director General for Economic Assessment and Policy Analysis CABINET OFFICE

2 1

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5 i (ii) 4

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7 Deflation defined as at least two consecutive years of price decreases. 6

8 7

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12 11

13 Phillips Curve Natural Rate of Unemployment NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) 12

14 Theory of Output Gap Production Function Approach WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (Potential output is the maximum output an economy can sustain without generating a rise in inflation.) 13

15 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.CEA2001.Paula R. De Masi, 1997 Barrell, R. and J. Sefton,

16 A Tract on Monetary Reform (1924) robust 77 15

17 The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory Monetary Phenomenon Monetary Phenomenon deflation: the act or process of deflating or being deflated.deflate: to reduce the amount of monetary being used in a country, in order to lower prices or keep them steady

18 P A AS A A A AS AS AD AD AD P AS A Y Y AS AS A A A AD AD Y AD Y 17

19 18 Y Y Y

20 19

21 slump: (of prices, trade, business activity) to fall suddenly or greatly Depression: a period when there is little economic activity, and many people are poor or without jobs A Growth Depression A Growth Depression: the economy creeps along, but falls further and further below its potential output. 20

22 Recession: a period of economic decline in a country, with reduced trade and industrial activity and many people unemployed. boom: to have a period of rapid economic growth Crises: a time of great difficulty or danger or when an important decision must be made 21

23 22

24 23

25 24

26 25

27 26

28 IMF1996 Post-Civil War Deflation Postwar Deflation Great Depression Postwar DeflationGreat Depression 27

29 28

30 29

31 IMF

32 31

33 gold standard J.M.

34

35 LM Y 34

36 1 Y2 LM LM C A B IS IS Y2 Y1 Y0 35

37 36

38 37

39 Wealth Creation 38

40 No Safeguarding Macroeconomic Stability at Low Inflation, IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Oct CEA, Economic Report of the President, Feb.2001 Paula R. De Masi, IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice, IMF Working Paper, Dec Barrel, R.and J. Sefton, Output Gaps, Some Evidence from the UK, France and Germany, National Institute Economic Review, No. 151, J. M. Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform, 1924 M. Friedman, The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory Michel J. Mandel, The Coming Internet Depression, M

41 The Rise and Fall of Inflation Lessons from the Postwar Experience, IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Oct James Bullard, Deflation and Economic Growth, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, National Economic Trends, Mar George L. Perry, Is Deflation the Worry? Brookings Institution, Policy Brief, Dec Safeguarding Macroeconomic Stability at Low Inflation, IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Oct James Clouse, Dale Henderson, Athanasios Orphanides, David Small and Peter Tinsley, Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero. Nov. 2000, Finance and Economics Discussion Series , The Federal Reserve Board 40

GDPギャップと潜在成長率

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