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3) Ratcliffe, D. A. (1967) Decrease in eggshell weight in certain birds on prey. Nature, 215, 208-210. 4) Newton, I & J.

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12 Publishers, ) Lemmetyinen, R., P. Rantamaki and A. Karlin (1982) Levels of DDT and PCB's in different stages of life cycle of the artic tern Sterna par asidaea and the herring gull Larus argentatus. Chemosphere, 11, ) Hakoyama, H., Y. Iwasa and J. Nakanishi (2000) Comparing risk factors for population extinction. J Theor. Biol., 204, Ecological Risk of DDT - A Case Study of Biomagnification Causing Extinction Risk of Herring Gull in Long Island Mayuko NAKAMARU*, Yoh IWASA* and Junko NAKANISHI* ** (*CREST, Japan Science and Technology Corporation (JST), Department of Biology, Kyushu University, Fukuoka , JAPAN (Current address: Department of Systems Engineering, Shizuoka University, Johoku, Hamamatsu, , JAPAN) **Department of Biology, Kyushu University, * * *Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Yokohama National University) Abstract A new method to evaluate the extinction risk of natural populations enhanced by exposure to toxic chemicals was proposed. The extinction risk of herring gull (Larus argentatus) in Long Island, NY caused by DDT (p, p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and its metabolites (called DDT) was calculated. As a top predator, herring gull suffers severely by the biologically concentrated DDT. The canonical model is adopted to evaluate the mean extinction time. The intrinsic rate of growth r is estimated from the doubling time of a fast growing population; the intensity of environmental fluctuation ƒâe2 is from the magnitude of population size fluctuation. Based on an age-structured matrix model with biological concentration factor and the decrease in fertility caused by the exposure to DDT, we can estimate the decrease in the mean extinction time of herring gull population for different concentration of DDT in the environment. Risk equivalent, defined as the fraction of habitat loss that causes the same decrease in the mean extinction time as a given exposure to toxic chemicals, is very useful in evaluating the ecological risk and in management of toxic chemicals. Key Words : ecological risk assessment, DDT, extinction time, biomagnfication equivalent., risk

DDT 管理のための生態リスクベネフィット解析について Ecological Risk-Benefit Analysis of DDT Regulation 中丸麻由子 Mayuko NAKAMARU 巌佐庸 Yoh IWASA 岡敏弘 Toshihiro OKA 中西準子 Junko NAKAN

DDT 管理のための生態リスクベネフィット解析について Ecological Risk-Benefit Analysis of DDT Regulation 中丸麻由子 Mayuko NAKAMARU 巌佐庸 Yoh IWASA 岡敏弘 Toshihiro OKA 中西準子 Junko NAKAN DDT 管理のための生態リスクベネフィット解析について Ecological Risk-Benefit Analysis of DDT Regulation 中丸麻由子 Mayuko NAKAMARU 巌佐庸 Yoh IWASA 岡敏弘 Toshihiro OKA 中西準子 Junko NAKANISHI 生態リスクベネフィット解析 Ecological risk/benefit analysis