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1 COAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN MALAYSIA Noor Afifah Abdul Razak Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications Malaysia Coal Supply and Demand in Malaysia Noor Afifah Abdul Razak Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications Malaysia Sept.5, 2007 Tokyo, Japan OUTLINE Overview of the Malaysian Electricity Supply Industry Coal Resources in Malaysia Coal Demand in Malaysia Issues & Challenges Conclusion L-3-1
2 NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY (1979) Supply Objective: Ensure the provision of adequate, secure and cost-effective energy supply. Utilization Objective: Promote efficient utilization of energy and eliminate wasteful and non-productive patterns of energy consumption Environmental Objective : Minimize negative impacts of energy production, transportation, conversion, utilization and consumption on the environment. L-3-2
3 STATISTICS OF THE MALAYSIAN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY (2006) Generation By System Accumulated Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Demand (MW) Reserve Margin (%) Peninsular Malaysia TNB IPP Total 10,835 6,787 17,622 12,990 12, Sabah SESB IPP 444 Total Sarawak SESCO IPP Total Total 19,352 14, ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST ( ) 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 Sales Generation Peak Demand 40,000 20, Period Growth Rate (%) L-3-3
4 TRENDS IN GDP AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION RMMillion (at 1987 prices) GWh 260, , ,000 75,000 65, ,000 55, , , , ,000 45,000 35,000 25, , ,000 GDP(RMMillion) 111,06 120,60130,01140,86153,88 166,62183,29197,12 182,23 192,42210,55211,22 220,42 232,35248,95261,39 Electricity Consumption (GWh) 19,93222,373 25,778 28,474 34,07639,225 43,897 50,955 53,18753,187 60,299 63,043 66,99170,846 77,258 80,705 ELECTRICITY USE BY SECTOR (2006) Commercial 30.87% Public Lighting & Mining 1.17% Industrial 49.23% Domestic 18.73% Total Electricity Consumption : 75,446 GWh - growth of 3.8% compared to 5.4% in 2005 L-3-4
5 MALAYSIA S FUEL MIX TO MEET INCREASING ELECTRICITY DEMAND 100% 80% Oil Gas Coal Hydro Others Percentage (%) 60% 40% 20% % Year COAL FOR POWER GENERATION Coal forms part of Malaysia s fuel mix with the introduction of the Four Fuel/Fuel Diversification Policy in 1981 Aimed at diversifying fuel mix in order to ensure reliability and security of supply Reduce the country s overdependence on oil as energy source and aims for optimum mix of oil, gas, hydro and coal in the supply of electricity L-3-5
6 WORLD COAL RESERVE Europe & Eurasia 18.3% S & Cent America 0.7% Africa 3.4% North America 20.9% Consumption Total : 2.9Btoe Asia Pacific 56.1% Reserve Total : 426.5Btoe Malaysia 0.2% Source BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 MALAYSIA COAL RESOURCES Production and Reserves of Coal as of 31 st December 2005 Peninsular Malaysia Sarawak Sabah Total Reserves (million tonnes) Sub-bituminous Type Coking coal, Semianthracite, Anthracite, Sub-bituminous, Bituminous & Lignite Sub-bituminous, Bituminous , , Production (metric tonnes) - 782, ,107 Source: Department of Mineral & Geosciences Malaysia L-3-6
7 COAL UTILISATION IN MALAYSIA Energy Input in Power Stations Fuel Oil 16% Hydro 8% Fuel Oil 2% Diesel Oil 2% Hydro 7% Diesel Oil 2% Coal 7% Natural Gas 67% Coal 30% Natural Gas 59% Source : National Energy Balance (1998 and 2005) COAL UTILISATION IN MALAYSIA 6000 Coal Consumption ( ) 5000 TNB Janamanjung Power Station 2100MW Sultan Salahuddin Power Station 2x500MW Phase III Sultan Salahuddin Power Station Phase II 2x300MW Industrial ,086 1,212 1, Power Stations ,332 1,495 1,994 2,556 4,104 5, Source : National Energy Balance 2005 L-3-7
8 MALAYSIA S ENERGY REQUIREMENT The Share of Primary Commercial Energy Supply by Source 50 Percentage Oil & Pet. Products Natural Gas Coal & Coke Hydro Trend of energy supply mix in Malaysia indicated continuous decrease in the percentage of oil and petroleum product share steady increase in coal and coke demand Source : Ninth Malaysia Plan ( ) COAL UTILISATION IN MALAYSIA Existing and Planned Coal Fired Power Plant ( ) Source : Tenaga Nasional Berhad L-3-8
9 COAL UTILISATION IN MALAYSIA Coal Demand Projection ( ) Jimah Power Station 1400MW Tg. Bin Power Station 2100MW TNB Janamanjung 2100MW More Coal Power Stations? ktoe Sultan Salahuddin Phase III 2x500MW 5000 Sultan Salahuddin Phase II 2x300MW Industrial Power Stations Projection (power) Projection (non-power) Source : Pusat Tenaga Malaysia PROJECTED FUEL MIX UNTIL % 80% 60% 40% 20% Others Hydro Gas Coal Oil 0% Source : Economic Planning Unit L-3-9
10 ISSUES AND CHALLENGES - Increasing Coal Price The increasing price of fossil fuels i.e. oil, natural gas and coal will pose a serious challenge to the electricity utility companies, not only in Malaysia but also to the rest of the world Energy Information Agency (EIA) projection - coal price could be at USD35 per tonne in year 2010 but recently, USD70 per tonne Malaysia would have to spend nearly RM2.4 billion on coal import in year 2010 alone ISSUES AND CHALLENGES - Environmental Impact Prime environmental consideration of coal utilisation is climate change Environmental impacts of coal from consumption of coal discharge of pollutants or disposal of ash CCT is given emphasis in Malaysian coal plants to offer substantial improvement in environmental performance and efficiency L-3-10
11 COMPARISON OF EMISSION STANDARDS Clean Coal Day in Japan 2007 Emission Particulates DOE Malaysia 400 N o t e s : Jana Manjung 50 World Bank 50 Typical Bank 400 Typical Asian 100 Typical North American 40 Typical European 100 SOx 3500(AW) 200(OI) NOx 1700(AW) 2000(OI) *All units are in mg/nm3 CONCLUSION Coal will remain in the long-term as a low cost energy source Development costs, technology, environmental impact and security of supply are major factors in considering the utilisation of coal for power generation L-3-11
12 CONCLUSION Adoption of CCT needs to be facilitated through cooperation from countries with coal utilisation expertise Malaysia will continue to support the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation which promotes Sustainable Utilisation of Coal L-3-12
13 マレーシアにおける石炭の需要と供給 Noor Afifah Abdul Razak エネルギー 水資源 通信省マレーシア Clean Coal Day in Japan 2007 マレーシアにおける石炭の需要と供給 Noor Afifah Abdul Razak エネルギー 水資源 通信省マレーシア 2007 年 9 月 5 日東京 概要 マレーシア電力供給産業の概観 マレーシアの石炭資源 マレーシアの石炭需要 問題点と課題 結論 L-3-13
14 国家エネルギー政策 (1979 年 ) 供給目標 : 適切 安全で 費用効果の高いエネルギー供給を確保する. 利用目標 : エネルギーの効率的な利用を促進し 非生産的で無駄なエネルギー消費パターンを排除する. 環境目標 : エネルギーの生産 輸送 転換 利用 消費による環境への悪影響を最小限にする. L-3-14
15 マレーシア電力供給産業の詳細 (2006 年 ) 発電系統 総発電能力 (MW) ピーク需要 (MW) 予備率 (%) マレーシア半島部 TNB IPP 10,835 6,787 12, 合計 17,622 12, サバ州 SESB IPP 444 合計 サラワク州 SESCO IPP 410 合計 合計 19,352 14, 電力需要予測 ( 年 ) 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 販売 発電 最大需要 40,000 20, 期間 伸び率 (%) L-3-15
16 GDP と電力消費の動向 百万 RM (1987 年価格 ) GWh 260, , ,000 75,000 65, ,000 55, , , , ,000 45,000 35,000 25, , ,000 GDP( 百万 RM) 111, , , ,864153, ,625183, , , , , , , , ,954261,395 電力消費 (GWh) 19,932 22,373 25,778 28,474 34,076 39,225 43,897 50,955 53,187 53,187 60,299 63,043 66,991 70,846 77,258 80,705 部門別電力消費 (2006 年 ) 商業部門 30.87% 公共照明と鉱業 1.17% 産業部門 49.23% 民生用家庭 18.73% 総電力消費量 : 75,446 GWh 年の 5.4% と比べて 3.8% の伸び L-3-16
17 100% 80% 電力需要の増加に伴うマレーシアの燃料比率の変化 石油ガス石炭水力他 Clean Coal Day in Japan 比率 (%) 60% 40% % % 年 発電における石炭 1981 年の 4 種燃料 / 燃料多様化政策の導入に伴い 石炭はマレーシアにおける燃料構成の一部を担っている 供給の信頼性と安全性を確保するため燃料構成の多様化が目論まれた エネルギー源としての石油への依存過剰を低減し 電力供給における石油 ガス 水力 石炭の最適構成比を目指す L-3-17
18 世界の石炭埋蔵量 欧州とユーラシア 18.3% 中南米 0.7% アフリカ 3.4% 北米 20.9% 消費量 合計 : 2.9Btoe マレーシア 0.2% アジア太平洋圏 56.1% 埋蔵量合計 : 426.5Btoe 出典 BP 世界エネルギー統計 2006 年 マレーシアの石炭埋蔵量 2005 年 12 月 31 日時点の石炭の生産量と埋蔵量 マレーシア半島部 埋蔵量 ( 百万トン ) 亜瀝青炭 種類 生産量 ( メトリックトン ) - サラワク州 原料炭 半無煙炭 無煙炭 亜瀝青炭 瀝青炭 亜炭 1, ,107 サバ州 亜瀝青炭 瀝青炭 合計 1, ,107 出所 : マレーシア地質研究所 L-3-18
19 マレーシアにおける石炭利用 発電所のエネルギー源 Fuel Oil 16% Hydro 8% Fuel Oil 2% Diesel Oil 2% Hydro 7% Diesel Oil 2% Coal 7% Natural Gas 67% Coal 30% Natural Gas 59% 出所 : 国家エネルギーバランス (1998 年と 2005 年 ) マレーシアにおける石炭利用 6000 石炭消費 ( ) 5000 TNB Janamanjung 発電所 2100MW Sultan Salahuddin 発電所 2x500MW Phase 3 Sultan Salahuddin 発電所 Phase 2 2x300MW éyã² ,086 1,212 1, î ìdèä ,332 1,495 1,994 2,556 4,104 5, 出典 : 国家エネルギーバランス 2005 年 L-3-19
20 マレーシアのエネルギー必要量 燃料別の一次商業エネルギー供給比率 50 Percentage Oil & Pet. Products Natural Gas Coal & Coke Hydro マレーシアのエネルギー供給構成の動向は以下を示唆する ; 石油製品が占める比率の継続的な低下 石炭とコークスの安定した増加 出典 : 第 9 次マレーシア計画 ( 年 ) マレーシアにおける石炭利用 既存および計画中の石炭火力発電所 ( 年 ) 出典 : テナガ ナショナル社 L-3-20
21 マレーシアにおける石炭利用 石炭需要予測石油需要予測 ( (2010 年 2030 ) 年 ) Jimah 発電所 1400MW Tg. Bin 発電所 2100MW TNB Janamanjung 2100MW 石炭火力発電所の増加? ktoe Sultan Salahuddin Phase 3 2x500MW 5000 Sultan Salahuddin Phase 2 2x300MW Industrial Power Stations Projection (power) Projection (non-power) 出典 : マレーシアエネルギーセンター 2010 年までの燃料構成比予想 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% その他水力ガス石炭石油 0% 出典 : マレーシア経済企画庁 L-3-21
22 問題点と課題 - 上昇する石炭価格 化石燃料 即ち石油 天然ガス 石炭の価格上昇は マレーシアだけでなく世界の他の国々においても 電力を使用する企業にとって重大な課題になるだろう エネルギー情報局 (EIA) 予測 - 石炭価格は 2010 年には 35 米ドル / トンになる可能性があるが 最近では 70 米ドル / トンになり得ると予測されている マレーシアは 2010 年だけでも石炭の輸入に 24 億リンギット近く費やさなくてはならないことになる 問題点と課題 - 環境への影響 石炭利用にあたり最も環境に配慮すべき事は気候変動である 石炭の環境影響は以下に起因する 石炭の消費 汚染物質の排出または灰の処分 環境パフォーマンスと効率性を大きく向上させるため マレーシアの石炭火力発電所では CCT を重視している L-3-22
23 排出物基準の比較 排出物 粒子状物質 マレーシア DOE 400 N o t e s : Jana Manjung 50 世界銀行 50 Typical Bank 400 アジア標準 100 北米標準 40 欧州標準 100 SOx 3500(AW) 200(OI) NOx 1700(AW) 2000(OI) * 単位はすべて mg/nm3 結論 石炭は低コストのエネルギー源として長期間使用され続けるであろう 石炭の発電への利用を考える上で 開発コスト 技術 環境に対する影響 供給確保が大きな要因である L-3-23
24 結論 石炭利用の専門知識を有する諸国からの協力により CCT の導入を円滑化する必要がある マレーシアは石炭の持続可能な利用を促進する ASEAN エネルギー協力行動計画を支援し続ける L-3-24
25 氏名 : Noor Afifah Abdul Razak Position: Career: Principal Assistant Secretary, Energy Division, Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia : Anti Corruption Agency, Malaysia (Assistant Director, Administrative and Finance Division) : National Institute of Public Administration (Diploma In Public Administration) : Public Service Department (Assistant Director, Training Division) : Implementation Coordination Unit, Prime Minister s Department (Assistant Director (Development)) 2003 now: Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications (Principal Assistant Secretary, Energy Division) Education: BSc. in Chemistry, University of Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France Msc. in Chemistry, University of Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France 現職 : マレーシア国エネルギー 水資源 通信省エネルギー部門主幹研究員 職歴 : : マレーシア国収賄防止局 ( 総務管理部副部長 ) : 国立行政研究所 ( 行政士での学士号取得 ) : 行政部 ( 人材育成部副部長 ) : 首相府行政局 ( 開発担当副部長 ) 現在 : エネルギー 水資源 通信省 ( エネルギー部門主幹研究員 ) 学歴 : フランス国アミアン市ピカデリー ジュレ ヴェルネ大学卒 ( 専攻 : 化学 ) フランス国アミアン市ピカデリー ジュレ ヴェルネ大学院卒 ( 専攻 : 化学 ) L-3-25
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