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1 * ** No.04-J * **
2 * * e-mal: htosh.sasak@boj.or.j e-mal: kench.sakura@boj.or.j 1
3 skll-based technologcal change SBTC SBTC IT SBTC SBTC SBTC SBTC 1 Freeman and Katz[1994] 2
4 2 Sakura[2001] IT 3 [2000] ead and Res[2000] SBTC Ito and Fukao[2004] 2000 SBTC IT SBTC SBTC SBTC 2 Berman et al.[1994]autor et al.[1998] SBTC Sachs and Shatz[1994] Wood[1994]Bernard and Jensen[1997]Feenstra and anson[1996a, 1996b, 1999] SBTC 3 [2004] Sakura[2001] 3
5 4 5 2 SBTC SBTC 5 2. SBTC L % 10.4% % 50% 4
6 w w L 1(1) y y A 0 0 w L / w / L SBTC 1(2) SBTC y y y y B A B / L< / L w L / w > w L / w B A 7 w w < ( wl L + w ) ( w L L + w ) A B ( / L) ( / L ) < ( wl / w ) + ( / L) ( w L / w ) + ( / L ) SBTC SBTC 6 7 5
7 8 SBTC 3. SBTC SBTC Feenstra and anson[1996a] 6
8 3.1 Mncer[1974] lnw 2 = α + β t + γ 1K + γ 2K (3-1) lnw t K α β γ 1 γ 2 (3-1) (3-2) Weghted Least Squares 11 ln( wage ) = a + = b ( g g kn 2 1 ) g 3 Dh 2 Ej 16 h h D + e j j D + = 1 = 1 k = 1 Fk + d f k D + u (3-2) ln( wage ) / kn ) D Dh Ej Fk D D a ( , [2004] (3-2)
9 bg d h e j f k u 3 Dh D D D D D1 D2 D Ej D D D E1 E Fk D 16 (3-2) (3-2) 2 dˆ ˆ 1 d ˆb 1 ˆb 2 8
10 (1) % 13 (2) (3-3) 13 Autor et al.[1998] % % 14 Berman et al.[1994] 9
11 s = n s = n s = (3-3) = 1,, n : n = 17 s = W / W : s = W / W : = W / W : % 2 W W W W (3-3) SBTC SBTC (3-3) 5(1) % 10% (2) 10
12 SBTC 4. SBTC 4.1 Berman et al.[1994] K L 15 SBTC 15 [2004] IT IT 11
13 Z V C V ln C = α 0 + α ln w + α K ln K + α Y lny + α Z ln Z + α t t + 0.5( α YK KK ln K 2 + α ty YY lny 2 + α YZ ZZ ln Z 2 + α t tt 2 tk + q γ q KZ ln w ln w + α lny ln K + α t lny + α lny ln Z + α t ln K + α ln K ln Z + α t ln Z + Y K Z ρ lny ln w + ρ ln K ln w + ρ ln Z ln w + q ) t tz ρ t ln w (4-1) w t (4-1) w ln lnc ln w V = w d V C = s Y K Z q t = α + ρ lny + ρ ln K + ρ ln Z + γ ln w + ρ t q q (4-2) d w (4-1) w (4-3) 16 Y K Z t = γ q = ρ = ρ = ρ = ρ = γ and q 0 q α =1 (4-3) (4-2) Y ρ ρ = 0 (4-4) + K 16 γ q = γ q 12
14 L (4-1) w w (4-2) (4-3) (4-4) s w K = α + γ ln ( ) + µ ln ( ) + λ ln Z + δ t (4-5) L w Y s L w /( w + w L ) L ln( w / w ) ln( K / Y ) ln α γ µ λ δ Z 2 SBTC (4-5) (4-1) (4-5) Berman et al.[1994]
15 18 (4-5) s t K = α + µ ln ( ) t + λz t + α + φ t + ε t (4-6) Y t s t α µ λ α φ ε t dosyncratc shock (4-6) Zt SBTC M t Ft 19 SBTC IT IT Rt t 18 Ito and Fukao[2004] [2003] JIP (1) 2000 SBTC 14
16 λ (4-6 ) (4-6 ) s s t t K M R = α + µ ln ( ) t + λ M t + λ R t + α + φ t + ε t (4-6 ) Y K F R = α + µ ln ( ) t + λ F t + λ R t + α + φ t + ε t (4-6 ) Y (4-6) µ λ SBTC SBTC 21 (4-6) (4-6) α fxed effects model random 21 Wood[1994] SBTC defensve nnovaton Lawrence[2000] SBTC SBTCautonomous nnovaton 15
17 effects model (4-6) φ t 22 NL (4-6) 23 strct exogenety (4-6) E[ ε α X α φ ] = 0 for all and u ( u = { 1, 2, L, t, L, T } ) t u t t ε t E[ ] X (4-6) ( ) u = ln( K u / Y u Z u X ), u (4-6) X 24 (4-6) t t W t s s X t 22 F 23 (4-6) ad hoc 24 Wooldrdge[2002],
18 s t = α + Φ X + Ψ W + α + φ + ε (4-7) t s t t Φ Ψ (4-7) W s 0 : Ψ = 0 F X t 25 W s t 1 Wt 1 W t + 1 (4-6) (4-5) L ln ( wt / wt ) omtted varable (4-6) εt (4-6) εt 26 AR(1) s < t (4-6) t ε t ( t s) s > t (4-6) t ( s t) 26 effcent Frst Dfferenced Model 27 17
19 st 100 Kt Yt M t Ft 100 Rt 100 NLt
20 L ( wt / wt ) 6 (1) SBTC SBTC 4.3 8(1) M t Ft SBTC Rt (1) (5) NLt (6) (7) 9 SBTC ln( K / Y ) t 8(1) AR(1) 19
21 (3) 30 F (4-7) 1 W t 1 W t (2) (4-6) L ln( w t / wt ) omtted varable 8(1) (8) (9) (4-6) AR(1) SBTC 8(3) 8(1) SBTC Sakura[2001] [2004] ead and Res[2000] Berman et al.[1994] Feenstra and anson[1996a, 1996b, 1999] Bernard and Jensen[1997]Autor et al.[1998] Goldn and Katz[1998] 31 8(2)
22 % 0.31% 0.75% < > 0.75 <0.70.8> % % % SBTC 2 SBTC SBTC Feenstra and anson[1999] % SBTC % (1) 33 Feenstra and anson[1999] SBTC 31.5% 21
23 SBTC 5. SBTC 1985 SBTC 14 SBTC SBTC SBTC SBTC 22
24 [2004] 23
25 M t A) B) A) 100 C) 2000 = D) A) 2000 =
26 E) B) 2000 D) C)
27 Autor, D.., L. F. Katz, and A. B. Krueger[1998], Comutng nequalty: ave comuters changed the labor market?, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, 113, Berman, E., J. Bound, and Z. Grlches[1994], Changes n the demand for sklled labor wthn U.S. manufacturng: Evdence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, 104, Bernard, A. B., and J. B. Jensen[1995], Exorters, skll ugradng, and the wage ga, Journal of Internatonal Economcs, 42, Feenstra, R. C., and G.. anson[1996a], Foregn nvestment, outsourcng and relatve wages, n R. C. Feenstra, G.M. Grossman and D. A. Irwn (ed.) The Poltcal Economy of Trade Polcy: Paers n onor of Jagdsh Bhagwat, Cambrdge, MA: MIT ress, Feenstra, R. C., and G.. anson[1996b], Globalzaton, outsourcng, and wage nequalty, Amercan Economc Revews, 86, Feenstra, R. C., and G.. anson[1999], The mact of outsourcng and hgh-technology catal on wages: Estmates for the U.S., , Quarterly Journal of Economcs, 114, Freeman, R. B., and L. F. Katz[1994], Rsng wage nequalty: the Unted States vs. other advanced countres, n R. B. Freeman (ed.) Workng under Dfferent Rules, New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundaton, Goldn, C., and L. F. Katz[1998], The orgns of technology-skll comlementarty, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, 113, ead, K., and J. Res[2000], Offshore roducton and skll ugradng by Jaanese manufacturng frms, Journal of Internatonal Economcs, 58, Ito, K., and K. Fukao[2004], Physcal and human catal deeenng and new trade atterns n Jaan, NBER Workng Paer Lawrence, R.[2000], Does a kck n the ants get you gong or does t just hurt? The mact of nternatonal cometton on technologcal change n U.S. manufacturng, n R. C. Feenstra (ed.) The Imact of Internatonal Trade on 26
28 Wages, Chcago: Unversty of Chcago ress, Mncer, J.[1974], Schoolng, Exerence, and Earnngs, New York, NBER. Sachs, J.D., and. J. Shatz[1994], Trade and jobs n U.S. manufacturng, Brookngs Paers on Economc Actvty, 1, Sakura, K.[2001], Based technologcal change and Jaanese manufacturng emloyment, Journal of the Jaanese and Internatonal Economcs, 15, Wood, A.[1994], North-South Trade, Emloyment and Inequalty, Changng Fortunes n a Skll-Drven World, Oxford: Clarendon ress. Wooldrdge, J. M.[2002], Econometrc Analyss of Cross Secton and Panel Data, Cambrdge, MA: MIT ress. [2004] 23 1 [2000] Vol.21-2 [2004] Vol.25-1 [2004] [2003]
29 SBTC SBTC y 0 A y 0 O ( / L) ( w L / w ) L SBTC y 0 y 1 A B y 0 y 1 O ( / L) ( / L ) ( w L / w ) ( w L / w ) L
30 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 2.89 ) ( 3.15 ) ( ) ( 5.58 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 2.99 ) ( 0.96 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 0.54 ) ( 2.04 ) ( 0.03 ) ( 1.43 ) ( 2.02 ) ( 5.56 ) ( 9.32 ) ( 7.55 ) ( 5.41 ) ( 6.82 ) ( 6.61 ) ( 9.83 ) ( 9.42 ) ( 6.70 ) ( 5.89 ) ( 6.43 ) ( 5.84 ) ( 0.25 ) ( 0.02 ) ( ) ( 0.87 ) ( 1.49 ) ( 0.61 ) ( 2.57 ) ( 0.93 ) ( 6.01 ) ( 2.98 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 0.71 ) ( 1.69 ) ( ) ( 0.89 ) ( 0.68 ) ( 3.82 ) ( 7.44 ) ( 3.12 ) ( 3.27 ) ( 2.70 ) ( 2.20 ) ( 5.17 ) ( 2.53 ) ( 2.07 ) ( 1.41 ) ( 4.01 ) ( 6.69 ) ( 4.73 ) ( 4.88 ) ( 4.89 ) ( 5.55 ) ( 7.78 ) ( 2.21 ) ( 2.00 ) ( 1.78 ) ( 4.26 ) ( 5.54 ) ( 4.11 ) ( 2.79 ) ( 0.10 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) R 2 S.E WLS eteroskedastcty-consstent standard errorscses t 17 16
31 ,105/
32
33 (87.6%) (91.3%) (89.6%) (94.0%) (89.7%) (12.4%) (8.7%) (10.4%) (6.0%) (10.3%)
34 <100.0%> <8.0%> <2.4%> <0.9%> <1.3%> <1.3%> <1.7%> <5.6%> <6.5%> <1.7%> <4.7%> <3.7%> <2.0%> <5.4%> <12.3%> <25.8%> <11.8%> <4.8%> <100.0%> <11.3%> <-32.0%> <-11.5%> <-5.1%> <-8.8%> <-0.1%> <23.9%> <-4.9%> <-3.7%> <-13.7%> <-46.0%> <-6.4%> <-4.8%> <1.1%> <163.6%> <32.9%> <4.3%>
35 L s t ln( K t / Y ) M t F t Rt NL ln( w / ) t t w t t s t ln( K t / Y M t F t R t t ) NL t L ln( w t / w ) t s t L ln( K / Y ) M R NL ln( w t / w ) t t t F t t t t
36 SBTC SBTC
37
38 s t (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) ln( K / Y ) t *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** (0.530) (0.487) (0.454) (0.526) (0.489) (0.490) (0.466) (0.450) (0.475) M *** t *** *** *** (0.052) (0.052) (0.051) (0.044) ln( F t SBTC R t NL t L w / w ) t *** * ** * (0.039) (0.040) (0.040) (0.038) *** *** *** *** *** *** *** (0.289) (0.280) (0.264) (0.250) (0.244) (0.239) (0.250) *** *** (0.060) (0.083) *** *** (4.058) (5.176) const *** *** *** *** *** *** *** (1.854) (1.832) (1.790) (1.993) (1.862) (2.224) (1.957) (2.290) S.E F ausman-test P (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.30) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Number of obs ****** 1510% secfcaton-test FGLSFeasble Generalsed Least Squares (2)(5)(7)(9) 13
39 s t = α + Φ X + Ψ W + α + φ + ε t s t t (4-7) W s 0 : Ψ = 0 F P W s W = t +1 ln( K / Y ) + t 1 ln( K / Y ) + t 1 M t +1 R t + 1 F t +1 R t +1 M t +1 R t +1 F t +1 R t (0.385) (0.525) (0.331) (0.380) W W s = t 1 ln( K / Y ) ln( K / Y ) t 1 t 1 M t 1 R t 1 F t 1 M t 1 F t 1 R t 1 R t 1 R t (0.530) (0.399) (0.344) (0.267) AR(1) (1)' (2)' (3)' (4)' (5)' (6)' (7)' ln( K / Y ) t (0.965) (1.267) (0.975) (0.954) (1.254) (0.753) (0.925) M *** t *** *** (0.055) (0.055) (0.054) F t SBTC R t NLt * (0.048) (0.048) (0.048) *** ** *** *** *** (0.334) (0.328) (0.342) (0.299) (0.334) *** *** (0.093) (0.139) S.E F Number of obs s t ****** 1510% FGLS F Ψ = 0 AR(1) (1)' (5)'
40 (1) (1)(5)
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email: takahash@sci.u-hyogo.ac.jp May 14, 2009 Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2 / 262 Today s Lecture: Mode-mode Coupling Theory 100 / 262 Part I Effects of Non-linear Mode-Mode Coupling Effects of Non-linear
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