* htosh.sasak@boj.or.j ** kench.sakura@boj.or.j No.04-J-17 2004 12 103-8660 30 * **
* 2004 12 1988 2003 * e-mal: htosh.sasak@boj.or.j e-mal: kench.sakura@boj.or.j 1
1. 1980 1990 1 skll-based technologcal change SBTC SBTC IT SBTC SBTC SBTC SBTC 1 Freeman and Katz[1994] 2
2 Sakura[2001] IT 3 [2000] ead and Res[2000] 1980 1990 SBTC Ito and Fukao[2004] 2000 SBTC IT SBTC SBTC 1990 2000 SBTC 2 Berman et al.[1994]autor et al.[1998] SBTC Sachs and Shatz[1994] Wood[1994]Bernard and Jensen[1997]Feenstra and anson[1996a, 1996b, 1999] SBTC 3 [2004] Sakura[2001] 3
4 5 2 SBTC 3 4 1988 2003 SBTC 5 2. SBTC L 4 2003 4 2 1 2002 6.5% 10.4% 2 2004 3 5 1990 2003 10% 50% 4
w w L 1(1) y y A 0 0 w L / w / L SBTC 1(2) SBTC y y y y 0 0 1 1 6 B A B / L< / L w L / w > w L / w B A 7 w w < ( wl L + w ) ( w L L + w ) 144 243 4 144 2443 A B ( / L) ( / L ) < ( wl / w ) + ( / L) ( w L / w ) + ( / L ) SBTC SBTC 6 7 5
8 SBTC 3. SBTC 3.1 1985 3.2 SBTC 8 1 1 Feenstra and anson[1996a] 6
3.1 Mncer[1974] lnw 2 = α + β t + γ 1K + γ 2K (3-1) lnw t K α β γ 1 γ 2 (3-1) 17 9 10 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 (3-2) Weghted Least Squares 11 ln( wage ) = a + = b ( g g kn 2 1 ) g 3 Dh 2 Ej 16 h h D + e j j D + = 1 = 1 k = 1 Fk + d f k D + u (3-2) ln( wage ) / kn ) D Dh Ej Fk D D a ( 9 17 10 17 920 65 4 3 1,836 11 [2004] (3-2) 1985 2000 7
bg d h e j f k u 3 Dh D D D D D1 D2 D3 1 0 1 0 1 0 Ej D D D E1 E 2 1 0 1 0 Fk D 16 (3-2) (3-2) 2 dˆ ˆ 1 d 3 12 1985 2003 3 1985 2003 12 2 ˆb 1 ˆb 2 8
3.2 1985 3.1 4(1) 1985 2000 1985 2003 0.60 1980 1996 0.74% 13 (2) 3.1 14 (3-3) 13 Autor et al.[1998] 1980 1990 0.908% 1990 1996 0.452% 14 Berman et al.[1994] 9
s = n s = 1 142 43 + n s = 1 142 43 (3-3) = 1,, n : n = 17 s = W / W : s = W / W : = W / W : % 2 W W W W (3-3) SBTC SBTC (3-3) 5(1) 1985 90% 10% 1985 2003 5(2) 10
SBTC 4. SBTC 4.1 Berman et al.[1994] K L 15 SBTC 15 [2004] IT IT 11
Z V C V ln C = α 0 + α ln w + α K ln K + α Y lny + α Z ln Z + α t t + 0.5( α YK KK ln K 2 + α ty YY lny 2 + α YZ ZZ ln Z 2 + α t tt 2 tk + q γ q KZ ln w ln w + α lny ln K + α t lny + α lny ln Z + α t ln K + α ln K ln Z + α t ln Z + Y K Z ρ lny ln w + ρ ln K ln w + ρ ln Z ln w + q ) t tz ρ t ln w (4-1) w t (4-1) w ln lnc ln w V = w d V C = s Y K Z q t = α + ρ lny + ρ ln K + ρ ln Z + γ ln w + ρ t q q (4-2) d w (4-1) w (4-3) 16 Y K Z t = γ q = ρ = ρ = ρ = ρ = γ and q 0 q α =1 (4-3) (4-2) Y ρ ρ = 0 (4-4) + K 16 γ q = γ q 12
L (4-1) w w (4-2) (4-3) (4-4) s w K = α + γ ln ( ) + µ ln ( ) + λ ln Z + δ t (4-5) L w Y s L w /( w + w L ) L ln( w / w ) ln( K / Y ) ln α γ µ λ δ Z 2 SBTC (4-5) (4-1) (4-5) Berman et al.[1994] 1988 2003 14 17 17 14 13
18 (4-5) s t K = α + µ ln ( ) t + λz t + α + φ t + ε t (4-6) Y t s t α µ λ α φ ε t dosyncratc shock (4-6) Zt SBTC M t Ft 19 SBTC IT IT 2000 20 Rt t 18 Ito and Fukao[2004] 1988 2000 35 14 16 224 19 13 20 [2003] JIP 1998 3 2000 34(1) 2000 SBTC 14
λ (4-6 ) (4-6 ) s s t t K M R = α + µ ln ( ) t + λ M t + λ R t + α + φ t + ε t (4-6 ) Y K F R = α + µ ln ( ) t + λ F t + λ R t + α + φ t + ε t (4-6 ) Y (4-6) µ λ SBTC SBTC 21 (4-6) (4-6) α fxed effects model random 21 Wood[1994] SBTC defensve nnovaton Lawrence[2000] SBTC SBTCautonomous nnovaton 15
effects model (4-6) φ t 22 NL (4-6) 23 strct exogenety (4-6) E[ ε α X α φ ] = 0 for all and u ( u = { 1, 2, L, t, L, T } ) t u t t ε t E[ ] X (4-6) ( ) u = ln( K u / Y u Z u X ), u (4-6) X 24 (4-6) t t W t s s X t 22 F 23 (4-6) ad hoc 24 Wooldrdge[2002],. 285 16
s t = α + Φ X + Ψ W + α + φ + ε (4-7) t s t t Φ Ψ (4-7) W s 0 : Ψ = 0 F X t 25 W s t 1 Wt 1 W t + 1 (4-6) (4-5) L ln ( wt / wt ) omtted varable (4-6) εt (4-6) εt 26 AR(1) 4.2 27 25 s < t (4-6) t ε t ( t s) s > t (4-6) t ( s t) 26 effcent Frst Dfferenced Model 27 17
1988 2003 28 st 100 Kt 30 2003 2002 Yt 30 2003 2002 M t 100 29 Ft 100 Rt 100 NLt 1005 2002 28 1988 1988 29 18
L ( wt / wt ) 6 (1) 0.30 0.67 SBTC 0.04 0.42 1990 7 SBTC 4.3 8(1) M t Ft SBTC Rt (1) (5) NLt (6) (7) 9 SBTC ln( K / Y ) t 8(1) AR(1) 19
(3) 30 F (4-7) 1 W t 1 W t + 1 31 8(2) (4-6) L ln( w t / wt ) omtted varable 8(1) (8) (9) (4-6) AR(1) SBTC 8(3) 8(1) SBTC 0.70.8 30 Sakura[2001] [2004] ead and Res[2000] Berman et al.[1994] Feenstra and anson[1996a, 1996b, 1999] Bernard and Jensen[1997]Autor et al.[1998] Goldn and Katz[1998] 31 8(2) 2 3 20
0.2 0.060.1 1988 2003 32 0.05% 0.31% 0.75% 0.2 0.31 <0.060.1> 0.75 <0.70.8> 0.05 0.56% 10.8 12.7% 8.7 13.7 5.5 6.6% SBTC 2 SBTC SBTC Feenstra and anson[1999] 1979 1990 11.0 15.2% SBTC 7.6 13.3% 33 1988 32 6(1) 33 Feenstra and anson[1999] SBTC 31.5% 21
SBTC 5. SBTC 1985 SBTC 14 SBTC SBTC SBTC SBTC 22
34 34 1990 [2004] 23
M t 19 2000 A) 2000 1988 B) A) 100 C) 2000 =100 30 2003 2002 D) A) 2000 =100 5 2000 24
E) B) 2000 D) C) 2000 25
Autor, D.., L. F. Katz, and A. B. Krueger[1998], Comutng nequalty: ave comuters changed the labor market?, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, 113, 1169-213. Berman, E., J. Bound, and Z. Grlches[1994], Changes n the demand for sklled labor wthn U.S. manufacturng: Evdence from the Annual Survey of Manufactures, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, 104, 367-97. Bernard, A. B., and J. B. Jensen[1995], Exorters, skll ugradng, and the wage ga, Journal of Internatonal Economcs, 42, 3-31. Feenstra, R. C., and G.. anson[1996a], Foregn nvestment, outsourcng and relatve wages, n R. C. Feenstra, G.M. Grossman and D. A. Irwn (ed.) The Poltcal Economy of Trade Polcy: Paers n onor of Jagdsh Bhagwat, Cambrdge, MA: MIT ress, 89-127. Feenstra, R. C., and G.. anson[1996b], Globalzaton, outsourcng, and wage nequalty, Amercan Economc Revews, 86, 240-45. Feenstra, R. C., and G.. anson[1999], The mact of outsourcng and hgh-technology catal on wages: Estmates for the U.S., 1979-1990, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, 114, 907-40. Freeman, R. B., and L. F. Katz[1994], Rsng wage nequalty: the Unted States vs. other advanced countres, n R. B. Freeman (ed.) Workng under Dfferent Rules, New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundaton, 29-62. Goldn, C., and L. F. Katz[1998], The orgns of technology-skll comlementarty, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, 113, 693-732. ead, K., and J. Res[2000], Offshore roducton and skll ugradng by Jaanese manufacturng frms, Journal of Internatonal Economcs, 58, 81-106. Ito, K., and K. Fukao[2004], Physcal and human catal deeenng and new trade atterns n Jaan, NBER Workng Paer 10209. Lawrence, R.[2000], Does a kck n the ants get you gong or does t just hurt? The mact of nternatonal cometton on technologcal change n U.S. manufacturng, n R. C. Feenstra (ed.) The Imact of Internatonal Trade on 26
Wages, Chcago: Unversty of Chcago ress, 197-219. Mncer, J.[1974], Schoolng, Exerence, and Earnngs, New York, NBER. Sachs, J.D., and. J. Shatz[1994], Trade and jobs n U.S. manufacturng, Brookngs Paers on Economc Actvty, 1, 1-84. Sakura, K.[2001], Based technologcal change and Jaanese manufacturng emloyment, Journal of the Jaanese and Internatonal Economcs, 15, 298-322. Wood, A.[1994], North-South Trade, Emloyment and Inequalty, Changng Fortunes n a Skll-Drven World, Oxford: Clarendon ress. Wooldrdge, J. M.[2002], Econometrc Analyss of Cross Secton and Panel Data, Cambrdge, MA: MIT ress. [2004] 23 1 [2000] Vol.21-2 [2004] Vol.25-1 [2004] [2003] 1970-98 170 27
SBTC SBTC y 0 A y 0 O ( / L) ( w L / w ) L SBTC y 0 y 1 A B y 0 y 1 O ( / L) ( / L ) ( w L / w ) ( w L / w ) L
1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 0.068 ( 23.85 ) 0.063 ( 27.35 ) 0.061 ( 32.89 ) 0.057 ( 33.75 ) 0.057 ( 40.65 ) 2-0.001 ( -11.53 ) -0.001 ( -12.45 ) -0.001 ( -15.05 ) -0.001 ( -17.06 ) -0.001 ( -21.66 ) 0.396 ( 28.04 ) 0.436 ( 29.55 ) 0.435 ( 32.27 ) 0.441 ( 32.74 ) 0.470 ( 29.25 ) 0.235 ( 15.26 ) 0.276 ( 21.90 ) 0.268 ( 21.01 ) 0.258 ( 16.68 ) 0.260 ( 15.94 ) 0.139 ( 17.16 ) 0.158 ( 17.37 ) 0.159 ( 16.13 ) 0.149 ( 15.57 ) 0.154 ( 11.22 ) 0.035 ( 2.89 ) 0.034 ( 3.15 ) -0.007 ( -0.72 ) 0.045 ( 5.58 ) 0.119 ( 13.26 ) -0.051 ( -5.19 ) -0.041 ( -5.03 ) -0.073 ( -8.75 ) -0.074 ( -9.29 ) -0.043 ( -4.88 ) -0.049 ( -3.28 ) -0.075 ( -5.54 ) -0.102 ( -7.77 ) -0.078 ( -4.30 ) -0.097 ( -6.23 ) 0.060 ( 2.99 ) 0.015 ( 0.96 ) -0.062 ( -4.25 ) -0.030 ( -1.81 ) -0.047 ( -2.34 ) -0.217 ( -7.75 ) -0.148 ( -5.27 ) -0.105 ( -2.82 ) -0.035 ( -1.81 ) -0.041 ( -2.17 ) -0.036 ( -1.95 ) -0.011 ( -0.59 ) -0.068 ( -4.42 ) -0.063 ( -4.35 ) -0.039 ( -2.29 ) 0.007 ( 0.54 ) 0.029 ( 2.04 ) 0.000 ( 0.03 ) 0.022 ( 1.43 ) 0.029 ( 2.02 ) 0.115 ( 5.56 ) 0.124 ( 9.32 ) 0.104 ( 7.55 ) 0.085 ( 5.41 ) 0.103 ( 6.82 ) 0.090 ( 6.61 ) 0.128 ( 9.83 ) 0.112 ( 9.42 ) 0.096 ( 6.70 ) 0.106 ( 5.89 ) 0.098 ( 6.43 ) 0.078 ( 5.84 ) 0.003 ( 0.25 ) 0.000 ( 0.02 ) -0.015 ( -0.64 ) 0.015 ( 0.87 ) 0.021 ( 1.49 ) 0.010 ( 0.61 ) 0.036 ( 2.57 ) 0.014 ( 0.93 ) 0.083 ( 6.01 ) 0.039 ( 2.98 ) -0.011 ( -0.60 ) -0.014 ( -0.70 ) -0.017 ( -0.83 ) 0.012 ( 0.71 ) 0.023 ( 1.69 ) -0.008 ( -0.55 ) 0.012 ( 0.89 ) 0.013 ( 0.68 ) 0.059 ( 3.82 ) 0.096 ( 7.44 ) 0.037 ( 3.12 ) 0.049 ( 3.27 ) 0.040 ( 2.70 ) 0.029 ( 2.20 ) 0.057 ( 5.17 ) 0.026 ( 2.53 ) 0.024 ( 2.07 ) 0.018 ( 1.41 ) 0.056 ( 4.01 ) 0.073 ( 6.69 ) 0.046 ( 4.73 ) 0.055 ( 4.88 ) 0.061 ( 4.89 ) 0.087 ( 5.55 ) 0.100 ( 7.78 ) 0.025 ( 2.21 ) 0.024 ( 2.00 ) 0.022 ( 1.78 ) 0.061 ( 4.26 ) 0.065 ( 5.54 ) 0.037 ( 4.11 ) 0.033 ( 2.79 ) 0.002 ( 0.10 ) -0.606 ( -25.00 ) -0.479 ( -21.93 ) -0.274 ( -14.40 ) -0.230 ( -12.55 ) -0.282 ( -14.34 ) R 2 S.E. 0.983 0.100 0.990 0.094 0.994 0.095 0.995 0.093 0.996 0.097 1802 1801 1780 1776 1774 WLS eteroskedastcty-consstent standard errorscses t 17 16
0.24 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.24 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.40 0.38 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 0.11,105/
85 90 95 00 0385-9090-9595-0000-0385-03 0.209 0.236 0.269 0.296 0.317 0.538 0.653 0.539 0.716 0.600 17 85 90 95 00 0385-9090-9595-0000-0385-03 0.200 0.231 0.235 0.259 0.301 0.619 0.074 0.472 1.396 0.556 0.127 0.155 0.184 0.238 0.227 0.551 0.585 1.084-0.369 0.555 0.204 0.215 0.240 0.263 0.281 0.227 0.483 0.465 0.597 0.426 0.080 0.080 0.112 0.167 0.172 0.007 0.625 1.099 0.176 0.510 0.111 0.108 0.137 0.160 0.205-0.067 0.570 0.466 1.502 0.520 0.151 0.186 0.179 0.209 0.210 0.700-0.150 0.619 0.026 0.329 0.353 0.359 0.376 0.436 0.441 0.128 0.333 1.195 0.169 0.488 0.340 0.381 0.406 0.414 0.421 0.824 0.493 0.172 0.226 0.451 0.168 0.186 0.212 0.244 0.264 0.368 0.511 0.651 0.655 0.534 0.115 0.158 0.154 0.179 0.219 0.872-0.083 0.489 1.349 0.580 0.135 0.165 0.188 0.199 0.204 0.606 0.465 0.220 0.147 0.383 0.204 0.217 0.257 0.280 0.288 0.268 0.802 0.449 0.285 0.470 0.133 0.146 0.187 0.196 0.210 0.275 0.809 0.186 0.444 0.427 0.212 0.234 0.271 0.280 0.306 0.438 0.739 0.173 0.859 0.518 0.273 0.298 0.347 0.377 0.407 0.498 0.966 0.614 0.983 0.741 0.167 0.181 0.217 0.237 0.245 0.280 0.725 0.395 0.285 0.436 0.254 0.298 0.328 0.373 0.416 0.895 0.599 0.896 1.414 0.900 17
85-90 90-95 95-00 00-03 85-03 0.471 0.596 0.483 0.673 0.538 (87.6%) (91.3%) (89.6%) (94.0%) (89.7%) 0.066 0.057 0.056 0.043 0.062 (12.4%) (8.7%) (10.4%) (6.0%) (10.3%) 0.538 0.653 0.539 0.716 0.600 17
1985 2003 0.538 0.043 0.013 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.030 0.035 0.009 0.025 0.020 0.011 0.029 0.066 0.139 0.063 0.026 <100.0%> <8.0%> <2.4%> <0.9%> <1.3%> <1.3%> <1.7%> <5.6%> <6.5%> <1.7%> <4.7%> <3.7%> <2.0%> <5.4%> <12.3%> <25.8%> <11.8%> <4.8%> 0.062 0.007-0.020-0.007-0.003-0.005 0.000 0.015-0.003-0.002-0.008-0.028-0.004-0.003 0.001 0.101 0.020 0.003 <100.0%> <11.3%> <-32.0%> <-11.5%> <-5.1%> <-8.8%> <-0.1%> <23.9%> <-4.9%> <-3.7%> <-13.7%> <-46.0%> <-6.4%> <-4.8%> <1.1%> <163.6%> <32.9%> <4.3%> 0.600 0.050-0.007-0.002 0.004 0.002 0.009 0.045 0.032 0.007 0.017-0.008 0.007 0.026 0.067 0.240 0.084 0.028
L s t ln( K t / Y ) M t F t Rt NL ln( w / ) t t w t t 25.638 3.507 3.510 7.974 2.908 22.329 1.257 8.409 0.401 4.998 5.869 1.736 2.051 0.043 13.076 2.653 0.031 0.520 0.626 18.992 1.152 45.536 4.442 31.770 25.900 7.770 25.247 1.379 0.540 0.025 0.300 0.672 0.042 0.417 0.001 0.556 0.013 0.313 0.747 0.046 0.417 0.001 1.436 0.096 0.714 1.845 0.272 0.116 0.027 s t ln( K t / Y M t F t R t t ) NL t L ln( w t / w ) t s t L ln( K / Y ) M R NL ln( w t / w ) t t t F t 1.000-0.280 1.000 0.003 0.003 1.000 0.483-0.212 0.542 1.000 0.510-0.358 0.083 0.608 1.000 0.302 0.353 0.270 0.541 0.096 1.000-0.073 0.353 0.032-0.123-0.282-0.003 1.000 t t t 14 1988 2003 13
SBTC SBTC 50 40 30 20 10 1990 50 40 30 20 10 1995 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 2000 2003 50 40 30 20 50 40 30 20 10 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10
50 40 30 20 10 1990 50 40 30 20 10 1995 0 0 5 10 15 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2003 50 40 30 20 50 40 30 20 10 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 0 0 5 10 15 20
1988 2003 s t (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) ln( K / Y ) t -1.758 *** -3.045 *** -3.087 *** -1.878 *** -3.349 *** -1.592 *** -2.831 *** -1.713 *** -2.840 *** (0.530) (0.487) (0.454) (0.526) (0.489) (0.490) (0.466) (0.450) (0.475) M 0.229 *** t 0.214 *** 0.214 *** 0.194 *** (0.052) (0.052) (0.051) (0.044) ln( F t SBTC R t NL t L w / w ) t 0.102 *** 0.065 * 0.088 ** 0.067 * (0.039) (0.040) (0.040) (0.038) 0.805 *** 0.668 *** 0.761 *** 0.727 *** 0.704 *** 0.652 *** 0.695 *** (0.289) (0.280) (0.264) (0.250) (0.244) (0.239) (0.250) 1.166 *** 1.147 *** (0.060) (0.083) 34.263 *** 24.317 *** (4.058) (5.176) const. 32.814 *** 35.958 *** 35.089 *** 30.940 *** 34.536 *** 2.358 22.816 *** 27.658 *** (1.854) (1.832) (1.790) (1.993) (1.862) (2.224) (1.957) (2.290) S.E. 1.11 1.00 1.14 1.10 0.98 1.11 1.01 0.94 0.93 F 425.4 464.4 402.1 421.9 467.6 758.8 819.4 560.6 507.1 ausman-test 1060.0 3266.4 1430.4 1519.5 1411.5 4.9 16.2 2321.2 1485.5 P (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.30) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Number of obs. 224 208 224 224 208 224 208 224 208 ****** 1510% secfcaton-test FGLSFeasble Generalsed Least Squares (2)(5)(7)(9) 13
s t = α + Φ X + Ψ W + α + φ + ε t s t t (4-7) W s 0 : Ψ = 0 F P W s W = t +1 ln( K / Y ) + t 1 ln( K / Y ) + t 1 M t +1 R t + 1 F t +1 R t +1 M t +1 R t +1 F t +1 R t +1 1.019 (0.385) 0.748 (0.525) 1.112 (0.331) 0.973 (0.380) W W s = t 1 ln( K / Y ) ln( K / Y ) t 1 t 1 M t 1 R t 1 F t 1 M t 1 F t 1 R t 1 R t 1 R t 1 0.739 (0.530) 0.991 (0.399) 1.074 (0.344) 1.332 (0.267) AR(1) 1988 2003 (1)' (2)' (3)' (4)' (5)' (6)' (7)' ln( K / Y ) t -1.028-1.567-1.372-1.022-1.622-0.814-1.333 (0.965) (1.267) (0.975) (0.954) (1.254) (0.753) (0.925) M 0.198 *** t 0.182 *** 0.174 *** (0.055) (0.055) (0.054) F t SBTC R t NLt 0.061 0.040 0.081 * (0.048) (0.048) (0.048) 0.876 *** 0.732 ** 0.742 *** 0.873 *** 0.665 *** (0.334) (0.328) (0.342) (0.299) (0.334) 1.108 *** 1.116 *** (0.093) (0.139) S.E. 1.19 1.14 1.21 1.18 1.13 1.20 1.17 F 173.8 67.2 168.0 171.9 66.5 298.0 111.6 Number of obs. 210 195 210 210 195 210 195 s t ****** 1510% FGLS F Ψ = 0 AR(1) (1)' (5)'
16 18 20 22 24 26 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 8(1) (1)(5)