21
Japan s Labor Force in the Year 2020 2020 2020 600 30 60 65 30
21 20 20 2020 2020 (1) 1 (2) (3) 1 1992 9 2025 2025 1997 1 2050 10 2050-1 -
consensus estimate 21 (1995) (1997) (estimation) calibration (1) (2) 2 2 (1) (2) calibration Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol. 10 No. 1 Computational Experiments in Macroeconomics - 2 -
1 2 3 consensus estimate 2020 3 Shimada and Higuchi(1985) - 3 -
2.1 l = / L = Lmi + L i = l N + l i i mi mi fi fi i fi N l 1995 2020 2000 6793 2020 6115 678 1973 97 60 64 73 81.1 85 72.5 97 74.5 85 38.6% 97 47.0% 10 60-4 -
30 34 73 46.9% 97 56.2% 12.3% 24.1% 47.0% 22.9% (1997) 2025 2020 15 49 47 2000 2020 631 2.2 (1995) (1997) l 4 (1998) l 4 (1995) 26 59 (1995) (1997) - 5 -
(1997 6 ) (1997 ) 2000 6840 2020 6400 440 6.4 (1995) 2000 6861 2020 6175 686 10 5 (1997) 2000 6609 5668 941 14.2 (1998) 2000 6591 2020 6117 474 7.1 2.3 2000 2020 440 (1997) 941 635 580 631 600 5 (1995) 2-1 1992-6 -
3.1 (1995) (1997) 20 30 60 6 (1995) 25 39 10 60 69 11 12 191 2000 2020 686 (1997) 30 44 17 60 64 10 324 2000 2020 6-7 -
2.2 1 145 7 3.2 M 30 34 (1995) 0.31 (1997) 1.0 8 25 44 104 223 9 7 8 (1995) 1975 92 0.64 1995 20.56 34.69 42.54 (1997) 1975 96 1.22 1995 9-8 -
1 (1995) 1 30 34 0.28 (1997) 0.88 1 (1995) 25 34 0.5 10 (1997) 25 44 4.4 (1996) 11 0.35 0.36 12 (1997) (1998) (1997) 10 (1995) 35 39 11 12 1993 169 1992 6 171-9 -
(1997) (1998) 13 0.12 0.24 0.12 0.24 1 0.21 0.42 14 (1995) 2 1995 149 30 60 3.3 60 60 64 (1995) -0.00041 (1995) -0.084 (1997) -0.62 15 13 14 (1998) 28,200 12,260 38,399 18.12 6,957 15 (1995) 60 64 60 64 0.00072 65 65 79 0.00066 1995 206 60 64 465 12 65 392-10 -
16 (1995) 60 64 0.019 (1995) 6.1 (1997) 29 65 (1995) 67 60 69 83 (1997) 70 101 (1986) -0.2-0.25 (1997) 60 64 78.88 65 79 47.56 (1995) 1976 1991 60 64 0.0661 65 69 0.127 (1997) 1 60 64 0.23 65 69 0.21 65 69 58.79 16 (1997) - 11 -
-0.21-0.29 (1986) -0.2-0.25-0.29 (1997) 60 65 69 60 64 (1986) 17 6.4 12.2 (1986) -0.2 60 64 18-0.2 95 9 2020 351 30 19 17 (1989) 18 19 2020 60 64 60 64 2020 (1995) (1997) - 12 -
3.4 calibration (1991) (1997) 60 (1997) (1997) - 13 -
20 20 Stock and Wise(1990a,b) - 14 -
2000 2020 631 600 145 450 30 60 60 64 30 450 60 90-15 -
(1996) (1981), 33 4-21 (1997) 33 2 Autumn 177-190 (1995) (1997) 33 3 Winter, 286-297 (1986) 328 10 9-16 (1989) 359 11-19 (1991), 42 1 1 12-20 (1998) (1998) Shimada, Haruo and Yoshio Higuchi (1985), An Analysis of Trends in Female Labor Force Participation in Japan, Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1, Part 2, January, pp. S355-S374. (1984) 19 4 Spring, 398-413 (1998) Stock, James H., and David A. Wise (1990a), Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement, Econometrica, Vol. 58, No. 5, November, pp. 1151-1180. - 16 -
and (1990b), The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis, in David A. Wise ed., Issues in Economics of Aging, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, pp. 205-224. Tachibanaki, Toshiaki and Keiko Shimono (1985), Labor Supply of the Elderly: Their Desires and Realities about Full-time Jobs, Part-time Jobs, Self-employed Jobs or Retirement, 36 239-250 (1990) 121 11 52-66 (1995) 2020 (1997) 151-17 -