ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.256 December 2010 Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office Tokyo, Japan
The views expressed in ESRI Discussion Papers are those of the authors and not those of the Economic and Social Research Institute, the Cabinet Office, or the Government of Japan.
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Personnel Costs of Government - Simulation Analysis - Minoru MASUJIMA Senior Research Fellow Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office Abstract Real personnel costs of the government in the future will be affected by the current age structure of government employees. With the total number of employees fixed, personnel costs of the local government will decrease by 7% in the next 10 years as the age structure of local government officials will get younger. On the other hand, personnel costs of the central government will stay unchanged. Retirement allowances of the local government will decrease as most of the baby boomers have already retired. The rate of changes in terms of wages and retirement allowances is varied significantly among prefectures. Flattening the wage structure will reduce personnel costs more sharply when the current share of aged employees is larger. In reforming personnel costs of the government, a quantitative analysis will be necessary in considering the structure of employees and wages as well as administrative needs in each region and category. 2
22 295.8 58.2 237.7 5500 5.4 20 1 5.2 21.7 27.6 5.8 1 2008 20 2007a,2007b) 20 20 1 3
2 N i i i i i j+ 1,t + 1 = ( 1 rj )N j,t + a j At (1) N i j, t t i j r i j i A t i a i i t A j i t t W t t 0 i j s i Wt = w j,t0 j= s N i j,t (2) w i j, t t i j s s (2) (2) 4
RWt RW t W = W t t 0 1 = s j= s w i j,t 0 N i j,t s j= s w i j,t 0 N i j,t 0 1 (3) R t s i Rt = rb j,t rr r 0 j= s i i j j N i j,t (4) rr i j rb i j, t i j t i j (4) RR t RR t = Rt R t 0 1 = s j= s rb i j,t 0 rr r i i j j N i j,t s j= s rb i j,t 0 rr r i i j j N i j,t 0 1 (5) 2008 RW RR t (6) t 5
3 16 16 67 1 67 12 200820 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 18 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 6
7 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 18 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 18 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 2008 200820072008 (7) 2005 172008 20
5 21 10 20 4 20 18 18 19 20 68 68 20 20 1 20 4 21 20 5 18 18 54 54 66 66 20 8
20 21 10 20 4 1 9
10
20 20 20 1619 3 19 20 20 20 1 3 20 20 3 20 11
19 4 1 20 3 31 12
20 21 10 15 19 4 1 20 3 31 20 20 50 50 54 54 60 61 65 65 17 20 13
100 100 66 20 10 14
11 11 20 21 10 19 20 31 15
47 50 (a) (b) (c) (7) 11 10 2018 20 2028 16
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20 90.1 9.9 20 87.2 12.8 2018 10 17 6.916.0 7.87.4 40.511.6 23
0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 6 24
25
10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 7 26
27 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0%
8 28
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 30.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 29
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20 2018 10 11 24 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 31
(a)(b) (c) 2009 2018 32
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(a)(b)(c) 37
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